Success isn't measured by money or power or social rank. Success is measured by your discipline & inner peace. -Mike Ditka
This is so true in trading and investing!
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
2-28-2012 Consistency
Consistency is a constant effort and must come with discipline. I had two setups yesterday, Both had BBD and TL support. I took HE but not GE because HE had a Fib 50 line. I was afraid I could get double hits if both similar setups failed. It turned out the one I took got crushed and stopped me out today. The other one pushed through my line of entry. It touched Fib 62 and bounced back above my entry. I was planning to set my entry at Fib 62 this morning for GE but hesitated. So I missed a winner and took a loser. I paid a price for not being consistence with my setups.
I also missed V's day trades calls today. So far this month I took his bad days but missed most of his good days. I need to force myself to take his calls with at least 2 lots. I know he has more winners than losers and he is very profitable. Some times I just don't have the courage or clear understanding to take his calls. What am I paying him for? His risk is much smaller than my swing trades. Why am I more nervous about his trades than mine?
I also missed V's day trades calls today. So far this month I took his bad days but missed most of his good days. I need to force myself to take his calls with at least 2 lots. I know he has more winners than losers and he is very profitable. Some times I just don't have the courage or clear understanding to take his calls. What am I paying him for? His risk is much smaller than my swing trades. Why am I more nervous about his trades than mine?
Friday, February 24, 2012
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
2-22/12, Range Bonded
ZC and ZW have been in range for a while. I got chopped yesterday to the down side. I picked ZW last night which appeared had a better range. It bounced back and crossed my level. It's setting at daily trend line and looks ready to break out. First rule of my top down approach is to identify the trend. I was able to avoid ZC trap. I was willing to stick a leg out to get in ZW for a calculated risk with good RR.
Over all, many markets appears coiled. They are setting up a stage for b/o one way or another. Bulls and bears are fighting and like a tog war. It's choppy now. I need to be careful until trend clear again.
Over all, many markets appears coiled. They are setting up a stage for b/o one way or another. Bulls and bears are fighting and like a tog war. It's choppy now. I need to be careful until trend clear again.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
2-21-2012 Consistency
Had two stop out on ZW and ZC. My setups were proper. The markets took a sudden reversal. It could be clear deck but hit me. Both positions looked promising. I missed two sugar profitable trades because they don't look very good. The setups were there. I wasn't consistently applying my entry rules. Letting fear took over by convincing myself to wait and see. Both turned out to be 1K trade.
A good development came out of these stops is that I am not afraid of ES trades now. The risk is much smaller. I hope I have overcome the nervousness of short term day trading.
I over traded with Vader today. Knowing the trend line and support area down there I still took several unneccesary trades by blindly followed his calls, 5 lossors and one winner.
A good development came out of these stops is that I am not afraid of ES trades now. The risk is much smaller. I hope I have overcome the nervousness of short term day trading.
I over traded with Vader today. Knowing the trend line and support area down there I still took several unneccesary trades by blindly followed his calls, 5 lossors and one winner.
Friday, February 17, 2012
2-17-12, Rules and Emotions
Rules and emotions are often in conflict. Emotions can be rationalized and become resoning. It's hard to identify rationings under emotion. When should one to use discretion or market experience to make changes?
Two examples from today?
1. Rule bending, got it wrong. I looked at my ZYG set up before market open this AM and it didn't come to my entry point. As I saw the price bar already pushed through the upper trend line. V commented on gold's bullish movement. I moved my entry point from BB/D to BB/4hs line. I also adjusted my stop point up to maintain the same R/R ratio. My assumption was that the price may not come back to BB/D line since it already touched it over night. However, gold price kept falling in the AM session. It went through more than half way of my stop point. It finanlly was contained at day/night Fib 62 line. Based on my Top Down approach, gold is still in a slightly down channel but range bounded. It should proceeded with caution or avoided completely. I tend to get influrenced by other people's opinions and comments.
2. Rule bending, got it right, almost. I looked at ZW's overnight movement this morning and noticed it was a big green bar close to my short entry point. I tried to rise my entry to a previous day high and closer to PP for my back resistance. It was prior to the pit open and my order was not accepted. I canceled the order in fear of a strong up thrust. Once the market openned it hit exact point of my intended entry and started dropping. It had about 4 handles ($200) and held at a HVN area before lunch.
If I had a contigent plan I would have made some money. However, my over thesis was correct. ZW's price started to advance after lunch. It pushed through higher than my intended entry. I tried to get on a long the night before as I saw a multi day Fib 62 held and bounced. It didn't give me a pull back I wanted.
Conclusion, stick to my setups and do not bending my rules. This is the best way to be consistant. There will be some missed opportunities and losses. But it's the best way to deal with emotions and unplanned actions. The key is to manage risk and have a good R/R ratio for every entry.
Two examples from today?
1. Rule bending, got it wrong. I looked at my ZYG set up before market open this AM and it didn't come to my entry point. As I saw the price bar already pushed through the upper trend line. V commented on gold's bullish movement. I moved my entry point from BB/D to BB/4hs line. I also adjusted my stop point up to maintain the same R/R ratio. My assumption was that the price may not come back to BB/D line since it already touched it over night. However, gold price kept falling in the AM session. It went through more than half way of my stop point. It finanlly was contained at day/night Fib 62 line. Based on my Top Down approach, gold is still in a slightly down channel but range bounded. It should proceeded with caution or avoided completely. I tend to get influrenced by other people's opinions and comments.
2. Rule bending, got it right, almost. I looked at ZW's overnight movement this morning and noticed it was a big green bar close to my short entry point. I tried to rise my entry to a previous day high and closer to PP for my back resistance. It was prior to the pit open and my order was not accepted. I canceled the order in fear of a strong up thrust. Once the market openned it hit exact point of my intended entry and started dropping. It had about 4 handles ($200) and held at a HVN area before lunch.
If I had a contigent plan I would have made some money. However, my over thesis was correct. ZW's price started to advance after lunch. It pushed through higher than my intended entry. I tried to get on a long the night before as I saw a multi day Fib 62 held and bounced. It didn't give me a pull back I wanted.
Conclusion, stick to my setups and do not bending my rules. This is the best way to be consistant. There will be some missed opportunities and losses. But it's the best way to deal with emotions and unplanned actions. The key is to manage risk and have a good R/R ratio for every entry.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
2-15-12, Trend and No Trend
Stopped out on ZC due to a range bound market. I noticed the range bound before entering the order.
I was hoping to have a ping pong play or a brek out. Hope is not for trading. Need to wait to see a trend is clearly developed. Identify trend is the first requirement of my setup.
Don't be afraid of missing some trades. It's the quality not the quantity of trade that count. Some days there will be no trade setups. Be patient.
I was hoping to have a ping pong play or a brek out. Hope is not for trading. Need to wait to see a trend is clearly developed. Identify trend is the first requirement of my setup.
Don't be afraid of missing some trades. It's the quality not the quantity of trade that count. Some days there will be no trade setups. Be patient.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
TJ 2-14-12, Curve Fitting
I started bending the rules yesterday on my LE short entry. Instead of waiting for the day bar close, I mapped out my entry and executed it. It turned out more look like a long set up by end of the session. I also placed my entry lower than the setup point because I didn't think the price would come to the optimum point where the setup was best at. It eventually came passed the point and passed it and made it more like a long setup. This mistake cost me $400. This kind of thinking is actually fearing of missing.
Today, I entered a ZC long with the same kind of rule bending and thinking (fear of missing). I upped my entry and didn't wait for closing. It turned out to be a short setup by the end of session. Mr. Market is very tricky. Need to wait for him to show his hand first. Now, I got trapped and going to try to unwind myself.
FROM NOW ON, FOLLOW MY SETUP AND RULES. Yes, there may be some missed orders, it's OK and better be consistent from entry.
Today, I entered a ZC long with the same kind of rule bending and thinking (fear of missing). I upped my entry and didn't wait for closing. It turned out to be a short setup by the end of session. Mr. Market is very tricky. Need to wait for him to show his hand first. Now, I got trapped and going to try to unwind myself.
FROM NOW ON, FOLLOW MY SETUP AND RULES. Yes, there may be some missed orders, it's OK and better be consistent from entry.
TJ 2-13-12 Swing Setups
Back to my daily trade journal again. It has been a busy month.
I started to do well by applying my BB/D, Fib swing setups in January. It has four elements in it.
1. Identify trend and follow it. Also draw trend lines to show S/P areas;
2. Look for BB/D cross and pull back to BB line for entry point;
3. Use Fib levels for confluence area and possible change of directions;
4. Calculate risk and reward ratio, I will not consider taking a trade for less than 1.5 RR ratio;
I made several profitable trades by applying this setup. I also avoided several losing trades from other trade signals which didn't match my trend following requirement.
I started to do well by applying my BB/D, Fib swing setups in January. It has four elements in it.
1. Identify trend and follow it. Also draw trend lines to show S/P areas;
2. Look for BB/D cross and pull back to BB line for entry point;
3. Use Fib levels for confluence area and possible change of directions;
4. Calculate risk and reward ratio, I will not consider taking a trade for less than 1.5 RR ratio;
I made several profitable trades by applying this setup. I also avoided several losing trades from other trade signals which didn't match my trend following requirement.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
1-20-2012
Managing my swing positions. Grains are still under some pressure until last half a hour of closing.
Sugar started to pay off.
My day trade is still not in a good shape. I made two impulsive trades of 6E. Took couple try with Vader's calls and it finally paid off. A 1 to 3 RR with patience. A scary edge is actually safer in terms of RR.
Sugar started to pay off.
My day trade is still not in a good shape. I made two impulsive trades of 6E. Took couple try with Vader's calls and it finally paid off. A 1 to 3 RR with patience. A scary edge is actually safer in terms of RR.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
1-18-2012
2nd winning day in SIM. It's an emotional issue. I do better in SIM trading than real money trading.
Had a full stop on 6B from 2 day's ago. I didn't stick to my risk percentage. I noticed the trend had changed and Fib D 62 is breached. Failed to take action yesterday.
Had 2 good entries of SB No11 and LE on a reverse stop out. Will practice more on daily swing set ups. I need to have an alert set up and scan tool for multiple instruments.
Had a full stop on 6B from 2 day's ago. I didn't stick to my risk percentage. I noticed the trend had changed and Fib D 62 is breached. Failed to take action yesterday.
Had 2 good entries of SB No11 and LE on a reverse stop out. Will practice more on daily swing set ups. I need to have an alert set up and scan tool for multiple instruments.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
1-17-2012
Tuesday after Martin Luther King's long weekend. I decided to trade in Sim for ES and NQ. I want to get my discipline and confidence back. Had a couple of good entry for ES, but exited too early. Didn't stick to RR theory. I identified couple of turning points, short and long, but did not executed them for lack of confidence. Executed 2 vader's NQ call and one of mine. None worked. Resulting a net loss of $207.5. Need more practice in NQ and void impulsive trading.
Today's ES range was 13.75.
Existed some stock swing positions since the market appeared some what over bought. All are profitable.
Today's ES range was 13.75.
Existed some stock swing positions since the market appeared some what over bought. All are profitable.
Friday, January 13, 2012
1-13-2012
Had a win of HE at my target of BBD and TL. The developer had a higher target and filled. Glad I am doing something in my trading style. ZW is still under water. It may have to test some lows before it bounces back.
ES is still my problem, or emotion is my problem. It's a losing week for me. I should use SIM to trade next week for scalping setups.
ES is still my problem, or emotion is my problem. It's a losing week for me. I should use SIM to trade next week for scalping setups.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
1-12-2012
A good day went wrong. All grains dropped big time after a government report came out this morning.
My protective stop on ZW didn't get executed. The WSG gave back 4/3 of gain and my stop order went to a market order. My target order was a little too aggressive last night for WSG. I need to find a good news release service for commodities.
My ES BB5 setup is not working lately. It's mainly an emotional problem. Taking some and letting some go. I am on a three day losing streak now. I need to look at bigger pictures and be willing to trade with an edge.
My protective stop on ZW didn't get executed. The WSG gave back 4/3 of gain and my stop order went to a market order. My target order was a little too aggressive last night for WSG. I need to find a good news release service for commodities.
My ES BB5 setup is not working lately. It's mainly an emotional problem. Taking some and letting some go. I am on a three day losing streak now. I need to look at bigger pictures and be willing to trade with an edge.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
1-11-2012
Missed 2 good calls of ES from Vader before 10:30 am. I was distracted emotionally by my swing positions, especially QM at a loss. Dave didn't get fill for QM, I failed to look at 4h chart, bit too aggressive in entry. I have been stay out of oil.
No conviction to take a good setup or on edge. Being chopped in the mid. Need to step back and re-tool in SIM trade. Be willing to trade with edge. The key is still emotion control and risk/money management. It's a job you like, do your best and do it well.
No conviction to take a good setup or on edge. Being chopped in the mid. Need to step back and re-tool in SIM trade. Be willing to trade with edge. The key is still emotion control and risk/money management. It's a job you like, do your best and do it well.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
1-10-2012
Utra sound in AM. Had 2 winners 1 loser before late lunch. After 3pm trades became irrational. I turned a winning day into a Small losing day again. I broke my rules and over traded. My plan was not to trade after 3:30.
Swing trades didn't do well. QM triggered and dropped.
Swing trades didn't do well. QM triggered and dropped.
01-09-2012
Monday, possible of new trend or still in a range.
ZW, ZS and GH were triggered in AM, Didn't get refile for ZW. May miss the trade again. I didn't manage GH intra day well. It's now up side down.
WSG almost got stopped out. It's now higher low in hourly bars.
ZW, ZS and GH were triggered in AM, Didn't get refile for ZW. May miss the trade again. I didn't manage GH intra day well. It's now up side down.
WSG almost got stopped out. It's now higher low in hourly bars.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
1-6-2012
Doctor visit in AM. I realized that I couldn't focus right after coming back.
Friday. able to hold the urge to trade during the choppy time.
Not a good week for me. I tend to over thinking. Need to focus on right set up and execution, not winning or losing.
Friday. able to hold the urge to trade during the choppy time.
Not a good week for me. I tend to over thinking. Need to focus on right set up and execution, not winning or losing.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
1-5-2012
O/N dropped. Jobless report came out better than expected and pre mkt recovered.
A thought crossed my mind that the mkt may want to test over night low at some point during RTH.
I closed my ZC short with tgt hit. Looking at ZW and HE reached full targets without me proved that my fear is limiting my results. I was in both of them but exit out with a very small gain.
I did avoided two potential losers by looking at price patterns on 6B and GH.
ES and NQ trades were terrible today. Missed couple winning calls but got all losers. Still need 2 cars to make it workable. What's the fear of instant result and swing result? I seem to fear small but instant loss than bigger but longer time result. Why?
A thought crossed my mind that the mkt may want to test over night low at some point during RTH.
I closed my ZC short with tgt hit. Looking at ZW and HE reached full targets without me proved that my fear is limiting my results. I was in both of them but exit out with a very small gain.
I did avoided two potential losers by looking at price patterns on 6B and GH.
ES and NQ trades were terrible today. Missed couple winning calls but got all losers. Still need 2 cars to make it workable. What's the fear of instant result and swing result? I seem to fear small but instant loss than bigger but longer time result. Why?
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
1-4-2012
A.M. being busy working on Daily Batch's order I didn't pay enough attention to ES and NQ market. No focus, no trade. Missed couple of Vader's winning calls.
Choppy ES price actions. Voud is nueture. Without 2 cars I couldn't scale into winners. Broke my rule and traded into 3:30.
ES ranged 10 Ps, closed at 1273.25.
Choppy ES price actions. Voud is nueture. Without 2 cars I couldn't scale into winners. Broke my rule and traded into 3:30.
ES ranged 10 Ps, closed at 1273.25.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
1-3-2012
ES gapped up 20 points on the 1st trading day. In a small range after open. The range of today is about 10 point with low volume. There are couple evil swings. ES cash closed at 1271.5 near low of the day.
The RR theory is working. One winner recovered two lossors. Still need to work on sizing and panic exit on pull back.
The RR theory is working. One winner recovered two lossors. Still need to work on sizing and panic exit on pull back.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Maintain Your Mindset by Linda Bradford Raschke
http://www.lbrgroup.com/images/SFO_July04.pdf
Like others, I have had to stretch and
grow as markets and products have changed over the years. The markets
continually cause me to reaffirm rm my values and reflect on my own self identity,
and even after all these years, I keep vigil against fear and doubt.
Thankfully, I am blessed with the knowledge of how powerful a tool positive
thinking can be and with the ability to implement this tool on a daily
basis.
I wish I could say there was a point where I felt like I had “arrived.”
More often than not, however, I feel as though I am not even close to
reaching that point. I have come to accept the fact that this business is
nothing more then a continual process to be taken one day at a time like
so many other endeavors in life. For me, the term “trader” has become
synonymous with “lifestyle.”
Positive BrainwashingOK, knowing my game is helpful, but just because I know my game
does not mean that I will be successful at it. There are numerous steps
that must be taken outside of market hours in order to do well during
the trading day. I can go through the motions of preparation, organization
and outside research. But, I still do not think these are the things
that guarantee success. The great equalizer for me is that I believe I will
succeed. I have brainwashed myself on a daily basis into believing I will
succeed, especially during periods when inevitable doubts have crept
in. A positive mental attitude is a form of religion to me.
Self-talk is the way that we speak to ourselves, and sometimes negative
thoughts are very subtle. For example, if a trader says to him or
herself, “I have to do well” or “I need to make X amount of dollars this
month,” this type of thinking automatically creates stress and anxiety.
Anxiety causes emotional decision making during the trading day.
Emotions invariably lead to losing trades.
The Three R’sLet me leave you with the three “R’s” I use as a way of maintaining a
mindset and keeping focused: record keeping, rituals and research.
Like others, I have had to stretch and
grow as markets and products have changed over the years. The markets
continually cause me to reaffirm rm my values and reflect on my own self identity,
and even after all these years, I keep vigil against fear and doubt.
Thankfully, I am blessed with the knowledge of how powerful a tool positive
thinking can be and with the ability to implement this tool on a daily
basis.
I wish I could say there was a point where I felt like I had “arrived.”
More often than not, however, I feel as though I am not even close to
reaching that point. I have come to accept the fact that this business is
nothing more then a continual process to be taken one day at a time like
so many other endeavors in life. For me, the term “trader” has become
synonymous with “lifestyle.”
Positive BrainwashingOK, knowing my game is helpful, but just because I know my game
does not mean that I will be successful at it. There are numerous steps
that must be taken outside of market hours in order to do well during
the trading day. I can go through the motions of preparation, organization
and outside research. But, I still do not think these are the things
that guarantee success. The great equalizer for me is that I believe I will
succeed. I have brainwashed myself on a daily basis into believing I will
succeed, especially during periods when inevitable doubts have crept
in. A positive mental attitude is a form of religion to me.
Self-talk is the way that we speak to ourselves, and sometimes negative
thoughts are very subtle. For example, if a trader says to him or
herself, “I have to do well” or “I need to make X amount of dollars this
month,” this type of thinking automatically creates stress and anxiety.
Anxiety causes emotional decision making during the trading day.
Emotions invariably lead to losing trades.
The Three R’sLet me leave you with the three “R’s” I use as a way of maintaining a
mindset and keeping focused: record keeping, rituals and research.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
My Trading Business Goals of 2012
2012 is a do or die year for my trading. I must do everything I can to insure success.
1. I shall work hard to become a consistently profitable trader. My trade method has a positive expectancy. The key is to control my emotions, especially the fear of losing, which causes not to take a proper entry, exit out early on pull backs.
2. My gross profit target is $60K. It equals to an average of $5K per month, $250 per work day. This is not a high target. The key to reach it is manage my Risk and Reward properly. I can have a profitable result if I can achieve 1:1.5 RR at least, ideally 1:2 RR or better. Risk and reward assessment should be employed in futures, stock and option trade.
3. Deduce my time spent in front of trading screens. Walk away before a news release and lunch time. It's OK to miss some trades during such time. Do not trade in the last 30 minutes of closing time. Use the down time to work on other tasks, such as read a blog, pay bills, file paper work, ...
4. I shall review my trading plan once a month at least. Update it to reflect my progress or new knowledge.
5. I must read four trading books in addition to attending webinars, reading related articles and blogs.
I failed to control risk on the 2nd half of 2011 during the high volatile moving period. I lost all of my profit from the first half of the year and lost $17k. I took 40 days off from Oct to Nov which probably helped to avoid further losses. A lot of pros lost money in 2011. This is a lessons to be remembered. Stay out of swing trade during such time is a key to preserve my capital.
1. I shall work hard to become a consistently profitable trader. My trade method has a positive expectancy. The key is to control my emotions, especially the fear of losing, which causes not to take a proper entry, exit out early on pull backs.
2. My gross profit target is $60K. It equals to an average of $5K per month, $250 per work day. This is not a high target. The key to reach it is manage my Risk and Reward properly. I can have a profitable result if I can achieve 1:1.5 RR at least, ideally 1:2 RR or better. Risk and reward assessment should be employed in futures, stock and option trade.
3. Deduce my time spent in front of trading screens. Walk away before a news release and lunch time. It's OK to miss some trades during such time. Do not trade in the last 30 minutes of closing time. Use the down time to work on other tasks, such as read a blog, pay bills, file paper work, ...
4. I shall review my trading plan once a month at least. Update it to reflect my progress or new knowledge.
5. I must read four trading books in addition to attending webinars, reading related articles and blogs.
I failed to control risk on the 2nd half of 2011 during the high volatile moving period. I lost all of my profit from the first half of the year and lost $17k. I took 40 days off from Oct to Nov which probably helped to avoid further losses. A lot of pros lost money in 2011. This is a lessons to be remembered. Stay out of swing trade during such time is a key to preserve my capital.
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