Consistency is a constant effort and must come with discipline. I had two setups yesterday, Both had BBD and TL support. I took HE but not GE because HE had a Fib 50 line. I was afraid I could get double hits if both similar setups failed. It turned out the one I took got crushed and stopped me out today. The other one pushed through my line of entry. It touched Fib 62 and bounced back above my entry. I was planning to set my entry at Fib 62 this morning for GE but hesitated. So I missed a winner and took a loser. I paid a price for not being consistence with my setups.
I also missed V's day trades calls today. So far this month I took his bad days but missed most of his good days. I need to force myself to take his calls with at least 2 lots. I know he has more winners than losers and he is very profitable. Some times I just don't have the courage or clear understanding to take his calls. What am I paying him for? His risk is much smaller than my swing trades. Why am I more nervous about his trades than mine?
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Friday, February 24, 2012
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
2-22/12, Range Bonded
ZC and ZW have been in range for a while. I got chopped yesterday to the down side. I picked ZW last night which appeared had a better range. It bounced back and crossed my level. It's setting at daily trend line and looks ready to break out. First rule of my top down approach is to identify the trend. I was able to avoid ZC trap. I was willing to stick a leg out to get in ZW for a calculated risk with good RR.
Over all, many markets appears coiled. They are setting up a stage for b/o one way or another. Bulls and bears are fighting and like a tog war. It's choppy now. I need to be careful until trend clear again.
Over all, many markets appears coiled. They are setting up a stage for b/o one way or another. Bulls and bears are fighting and like a tog war. It's choppy now. I need to be careful until trend clear again.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
2-21-2012 Consistency
Had two stop out on ZW and ZC. My setups were proper. The markets took a sudden reversal. It could be clear deck but hit me. Both positions looked promising. I missed two sugar profitable trades because they don't look very good. The setups were there. I wasn't consistently applying my entry rules. Letting fear took over by convincing myself to wait and see. Both turned out to be 1K trade.
A good development came out of these stops is that I am not afraid of ES trades now. The risk is much smaller. I hope I have overcome the nervousness of short term day trading.
I over traded with Vader today. Knowing the trend line and support area down there I still took several unneccesary trades by blindly followed his calls, 5 lossors and one winner.
A good development came out of these stops is that I am not afraid of ES trades now. The risk is much smaller. I hope I have overcome the nervousness of short term day trading.
I over traded with Vader today. Knowing the trend line and support area down there I still took several unneccesary trades by blindly followed his calls, 5 lossors and one winner.
Friday, February 17, 2012
2-17-12, Rules and Emotions
Rules and emotions are often in conflict. Emotions can be rationalized and become resoning. It's hard to identify rationings under emotion. When should one to use discretion or market experience to make changes?
Two examples from today?
1. Rule bending, got it wrong. I looked at my ZYG set up before market open this AM and it didn't come to my entry point. As I saw the price bar already pushed through the upper trend line. V commented on gold's bullish movement. I moved my entry point from BB/D to BB/4hs line. I also adjusted my stop point up to maintain the same R/R ratio. My assumption was that the price may not come back to BB/D line since it already touched it over night. However, gold price kept falling in the AM session. It went through more than half way of my stop point. It finanlly was contained at day/night Fib 62 line. Based on my Top Down approach, gold is still in a slightly down channel but range bounded. It should proceeded with caution or avoided completely. I tend to get influrenced by other people's opinions and comments.
2. Rule bending, got it right, almost. I looked at ZW's overnight movement this morning and noticed it was a big green bar close to my short entry point. I tried to rise my entry to a previous day high and closer to PP for my back resistance. It was prior to the pit open and my order was not accepted. I canceled the order in fear of a strong up thrust. Once the market openned it hit exact point of my intended entry and started dropping. It had about 4 handles ($200) and held at a HVN area before lunch.
If I had a contigent plan I would have made some money. However, my over thesis was correct. ZW's price started to advance after lunch. It pushed through higher than my intended entry. I tried to get on a long the night before as I saw a multi day Fib 62 held and bounced. It didn't give me a pull back I wanted.
Conclusion, stick to my setups and do not bending my rules. This is the best way to be consistant. There will be some missed opportunities and losses. But it's the best way to deal with emotions and unplanned actions. The key is to manage risk and have a good R/R ratio for every entry.
Two examples from today?
1. Rule bending, got it wrong. I looked at my ZYG set up before market open this AM and it didn't come to my entry point. As I saw the price bar already pushed through the upper trend line. V commented on gold's bullish movement. I moved my entry point from BB/D to BB/4hs line. I also adjusted my stop point up to maintain the same R/R ratio. My assumption was that the price may not come back to BB/D line since it already touched it over night. However, gold price kept falling in the AM session. It went through more than half way of my stop point. It finanlly was contained at day/night Fib 62 line. Based on my Top Down approach, gold is still in a slightly down channel but range bounded. It should proceeded with caution or avoided completely. I tend to get influrenced by other people's opinions and comments.
2. Rule bending, got it right, almost. I looked at ZW's overnight movement this morning and noticed it was a big green bar close to my short entry point. I tried to rise my entry to a previous day high and closer to PP for my back resistance. It was prior to the pit open and my order was not accepted. I canceled the order in fear of a strong up thrust. Once the market openned it hit exact point of my intended entry and started dropping. It had about 4 handles ($200) and held at a HVN area before lunch.
If I had a contigent plan I would have made some money. However, my over thesis was correct. ZW's price started to advance after lunch. It pushed through higher than my intended entry. I tried to get on a long the night before as I saw a multi day Fib 62 held and bounced. It didn't give me a pull back I wanted.
Conclusion, stick to my setups and do not bending my rules. This is the best way to be consistant. There will be some missed opportunities and losses. But it's the best way to deal with emotions and unplanned actions. The key is to manage risk and have a good R/R ratio for every entry.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
2-15-12, Trend and No Trend
Stopped out on ZC due to a range bound market. I noticed the range bound before entering the order.
I was hoping to have a ping pong play or a brek out. Hope is not for trading. Need to wait to see a trend is clearly developed. Identify trend is the first requirement of my setup.
Don't be afraid of missing some trades. It's the quality not the quantity of trade that count. Some days there will be no trade setups. Be patient.
I was hoping to have a ping pong play or a brek out. Hope is not for trading. Need to wait to see a trend is clearly developed. Identify trend is the first requirement of my setup.
Don't be afraid of missing some trades. It's the quality not the quantity of trade that count. Some days there will be no trade setups. Be patient.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
TJ 2-14-12, Curve Fitting
I started bending the rules yesterday on my LE short entry. Instead of waiting for the day bar close, I mapped out my entry and executed it. It turned out more look like a long set up by end of the session. I also placed my entry lower than the setup point because I didn't think the price would come to the optimum point where the setup was best at. It eventually came passed the point and passed it and made it more like a long setup. This mistake cost me $400. This kind of thinking is actually fearing of missing.
Today, I entered a ZC long with the same kind of rule bending and thinking (fear of missing). I upped my entry and didn't wait for closing. It turned out to be a short setup by the end of session. Mr. Market is very tricky. Need to wait for him to show his hand first. Now, I got trapped and going to try to unwind myself.
FROM NOW ON, FOLLOW MY SETUP AND RULES. Yes, there may be some missed orders, it's OK and better be consistent from entry.
Today, I entered a ZC long with the same kind of rule bending and thinking (fear of missing). I upped my entry and didn't wait for closing. It turned out to be a short setup by the end of session. Mr. Market is very tricky. Need to wait for him to show his hand first. Now, I got trapped and going to try to unwind myself.
FROM NOW ON, FOLLOW MY SETUP AND RULES. Yes, there may be some missed orders, it's OK and better be consistent from entry.
TJ 2-13-12 Swing Setups
Back to my daily trade journal again. It has been a busy month.
I started to do well by applying my BB/D, Fib swing setups in January. It has four elements in it.
1. Identify trend and follow it. Also draw trend lines to show S/P areas;
2. Look for BB/D cross and pull back to BB line for entry point;
3. Use Fib levels for confluence area and possible change of directions;
4. Calculate risk and reward ratio, I will not consider taking a trade for less than 1.5 RR ratio;
I made several profitable trades by applying this setup. I also avoided several losing trades from other trade signals which didn't match my trend following requirement.
I started to do well by applying my BB/D, Fib swing setups in January. It has four elements in it.
1. Identify trend and follow it. Also draw trend lines to show S/P areas;
2. Look for BB/D cross and pull back to BB line for entry point;
3. Use Fib levels for confluence area and possible change of directions;
4. Calculate risk and reward ratio, I will not consider taking a trade for less than 1.5 RR ratio;
I made several profitable trades by applying this setup. I also avoided several losing trades from other trade signals which didn't match my trend following requirement.
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