T.J. 6/28/13 Friday, the Month and Quarter End

This kind of days usually generate unusual market movement. Fortunately all of my ES options sales expired worthless. June became profitable and recovered most of May's loss. Not bad for a $2500 return of selling puts. It could be even better had I handled FED meeting day better. I am learning to be more disciplined and building confidence.

Today is also USDA's monthly inventory and planting acreage report. It's a big event for grains. I held my mini soybean short for too long. I was only focusing on adding to my position instead of revering when the trend changed about a week ago. In position trading reversal usually recover some of my loss from a stop out. It come with planing and flexible thinking. I was lucky they pushed the soybean price down twice before hit my order, then it jumped up way out my upper stop level. However, it shouldn't be a $490 loss if I had planed ahead and think about reversal instead of fighting the trend.

T.J. 6-27-13 Day 3

Today is the 3rd day of bounce. ES tested Fib 62 and got knocked down few time. However, every push down met with buyers. It didn't even close the gap from last night. It may make another push up tomorrow to close the gap above around 1623 left from last Friday after Fed meeting. My call scalp of 1625 may be in danger if it crosses the gap and stay above 1625 before closing. It's a good possibility considering tomorrow is Friday and both quarter and month end. I kept forgetting that selling calls are more difficult than puts with less money.

T.J. 6-26-13 Reversal Day 2

It seems a new pattern of daily: Over night test low, open higher and closer to the middle. Bulls are not confident to keep the market at high point. Today is the day two of reversal. ES challenged 1600, Fib 50 and failed to close above it. It may test 1612, Fib 62% level and 50 SMA. A daily trend line is at 1618ish.

I was able to exit couple near by positions with small profit. Lessons learned to wait for my levels for entry.
I entered a gold options influenced by opinion and a rough third wave. There was no clear set up. I will set a target and stop to play alone.

T.J. 6-25-13 A Dead Cat Bounce?

Major Asian markets took a big dive after their open and recovered with European markets after ECB's positive remarks on maintaining low rates. All markets are hooked on central banks cracks.  It looks like the market is trying to test higher after 4 day's drop.

I will try to use the bounce to exit the positions under water and maybe sell a call for this week.
Partial exit 1550 and no sale of calls were filled.

ES ended to be a inside day. We may have a chance to push up if it hold last night's low of 1566 area.

T.J. 6-24-13 Snow Ball

Another gap down day setting the trend on Monday. China's funding shortage caused Shanghai index dropped a warping 5.6%. It's like a snow ball kept rolling. ES bounced off Fib 78 level for a good 25 point pop but failed to close the gap and stay in last Friday's range. It appears the selling is not over yet.

I didn't have any new position filled nor exited any position. I was hoping the intra-day bounce would give me a change to exit the 1550 position. I may end up suffer a ITM position tomorrow if there is no bounce tomorrow. ES touched 1554 today.

T.J. 6-21-13 Quad Witching Friday

It's been volatile for this Quad Witching Friday. ES tested a new low of 1570 and bounced on a trend line and a rumor of Fed may add stimulus if needed.

I was lucky again on getting out this week's 1585 and 1565 overnight since it's a quarter end Friday and the ES options stop trading at 9:30 am. I took a small loss on 1585 and gain on 1565. It's a profitable week over all. I shouldn't play my luck like this again. Be patient and obey my rules. Wait for the price come to me. One thing may help me to look at both trees and forest for the context is not to guess too high or too low, rather to rely on market generated information such as price actions. etc...

T.J. 6-20-13 Falling Out

The market kept falling last night fueled by Japan's drop and China's low PMI report. ES gaped down and never looked back. At this writing of 3:50 pm, it's down 43 points

I made another mistake again when trying to get out of 1585 scalp position. I lowered my price hoping to get  a $5 better price from 95 to 90 which is LOD on the option. I missed it and now is $5 in the money. I have only tonight left to work on this position since this is a quarterly options. ES options can be very volatile. Yesterday and today have shown how things can change in a short period.

For the last 2 month I lost money on Fed meeting week for options of ES. Got to learn not to trade much  on the fed days. ES is down 40 points at closing today. This could be a game changer point for market sentiment and directions. I must keep in mind taking a long term view when evaluating my entries.  

T.J. 6-19-13 Fed Day

The much anticipated Fed meeting brought volatility as usual. I planned some positions last night for both up and down scenarios. At 2pm fed announcement, ES pushed up to yesterday's high of 1647.75, then falling down to test lower trend line of 1638 and started bounce back. I thought it was going to test a new high since the Fed left QE3 alone. After several push down, bulls got crushed. I started getting excited and become inpatient since the near by ES options prices didn't react much to the drop.  I was able to hold my pre determined entry price until near closing. I raised an entry of scalping from 1570 to 1585 in the heat of dropping. The emotion was fear of missing. It's now trading at 105 vs 0.55. I may have to take a stop tomorrow. I lowered 1550 entry to 205 for the week after and it got filled after hour. Discipline has a duration element too.

I got in some ZC/ZW calls this AM on a surge of prices. These positions are in next month or so. Got to remember to step aside after established a position. Reevaluate the market condition in the next hour or day before entering another position. I didn't know what caused the surge this morning before entering another position. Stay calm.

T.J. 6-18-13, The Day before Fed Meeting

The markets continue to push up after yesterday's Fib 62 retrace. ES may park between Fib 62-78, 1638-1652 area to go either way tomorrow.

I exited out two of my SPY weekly calls at 100% return, leaving one trail for tomorrow. This one is in bag now. I tried couple ES C sales but no fill. I am not eager to get in. Tomorrow is going to be a big day.

T.J. 6-17-13 Back in the Game

I am back on my desk now after a week of travel for college tour. Last week's option selling positions were all profitable. I was able to add couple of positions last Wednesday in a hotel for a quick scalp and started a position for next week. Both of my ZW and ZC positions were out with over 95% of profits. I didn't want to hold them for 2 more weeks just to get a few points out. It helped to release some margins out too.

Today is Monday. The market gaped up and stayed in a small range so far. People are mostly waiting for Fed meeting statement this Wednesday. It will be a safe way not to establish any index position before this Wednesday.

T.J. 6-6-13 A Lucky Day!

ES held the gap twice initially this morning. I thought it would wait until tomorrow's job report. It finally cracked the edge and fall down to close the gap and test 50ema. I had two DOTM filled at 1525 1 week and 1485 for 2 weeks. There is still Fib 68% below at 1589 area. I was able to exit out all of my endangered position with small profits when the market pushed up. It was a day down 12 points and closed up 15 points. A perfect move for get in new positions and exit out old position.

It's a lucky day and I am feeling good to go on my college trip.

T.J. 6-5-13 Fibs

ES hit Fib 23 extension of the down turn yesterday and bounced. It tried but couldn't hold the double bottom . It came down to the Fib 50% Fib RT of April 18 break out. The 50% level held today but didn't get much of a bounce. It is hanging on the edge of a big gap between 1592 - 1605 created on May 2. !590 area is also an important Fib 62 level. It looks the gap will very likely get filled in the next two days considering Friday's job report would drive the market go either way.

I shall exit couple of put sale positions tomorrow if the possibility presents. My positions of 1580, June 7 and 1560 of June 14 are in danger.

One lesson is to look at bigger picture and levels to determine entries, not let the daily small movements to drive my anxiety and frustration.

I closed a SPY put with near 100% but lowered my target again. A bad habit need to be corrected. My call of SPY is under water now. Overall this pair should be profitable.

T.J. 6-4-13

The market opened up higher and hit BBD/M and Fib 38RT. It worked like a charm with confluence. I had a put of SPY weekly filled there. It returned 100% by the afternoon. The hedged calls were not that lucky. I had to exit half at a small loss. This trade proves that following rules and setups will bring better result.

I placed some ES put and call orders but none of them get filled despite ES tested yesterday's low again. I was extra cautious because I have to go on a college tour later this week until end of next week. Better be safe than sorry.

I attended a FT's webinar today. It's helpful especially for trading psychology.  

T.J. 6-3-13

Starting a new month. I didn't do well last month on trading due to the big assignment of call sell. Other than that, I handled risk well in other trades. I voided several DB's counter trend trades. Stopped trading sugar.

I took a stop of my put 1570 two week out since it hit my upper limit. I still get the habit of taking it from below which limit the potential of saving more. I am glad I forced myself to take the stop based on my rules.