T.J. 7-31-13 Fed Day

The GDP came out better than expected this AM to an adjusted 1.7%. I am not sure if it's using the new method of GDP calculation. Previous quarter was adjusted lower to 1%. After Fed statement the market pushed down, up and down to the hourly trend lines. It closed at yesterday's HVA and basically no break in either direction. The up trend is still intact. I had 2 scalp puts and 1 long for 2 days. I will win both side if ES don't break 1710 or 1645 by end of Friday.

I missed the entries of  ZC and QM long both of them didn't pull back to my levels.

T.J. 7-30-13 Waiting

ES tested both high and low of yesterday. It's clearly waiting for tomorrow's big news of GDP and Fed statement. I tried to enter couple of put sales to scalp for this Friday. Both 1630 and 1620 didn't get fill. It was somewhat impulsive when the market came down to test 1677. I am glad they didn't get filled. I should wait tomorrow's close to see which way the market is going. Get to remember last May's loss and the three day rule.

My Wheat Sept contract closed today with a 95% profit. On the other hand all 3D printing stocks are down today due to DDD's miss on 2nd Q report.

Tomorrow is a big day.

T.J. 7-29-13 Another Doji

The market seams waiting for GDP and the Fed on Wednesday. It formed another doji today. It has stayed in a bull flagging and balanced pattern for the entire last week. I entered a put sale of 1650 ME for a quick 3 day scalping.

Grains didn't move much today. Expecting a bounce from over sold condition? We will see.

T.J 7-26-13 Chaching Friday

ES tested 1671 which broke the overnight low for few ticks this morning. I was expecting it would go further down to 1766ish but it didn't. 1671 apparently is last week's low. The market tested last week's high and low this week. It essentially stay in last week's range and formed a weekly doji. Next week is Fed meeting's week. Market is expected to have a big move up or down. ES still has not tested 1700 level yet. I didn't have any fill today despite I placed several orders for the month end scalping and next week's regular options. I didn't push much to get in which feel boring and frustrating. I should stay out of the market until after Fed meeting on Wednesday or the day after to see a clear direction. Got to remember my big loss in May's Fed meeting.

Grains appear stabilized today. My corn puts are still under water. All the calls are profitable. Let's see if next week will bring some relief.    

T.J. 7-25-13

Market went down to close 1672 gap overnight. ES pushed down after open then started pushing up. I missed this morning's pull back entry due to waking up late. I need to remind myself this is serious business.
I finally had a fill of sale for 1625 2 weeks out expiring Aug 9.

Grains is in their 3rd day of sell off. I didn't see any meaningful pull back for me to get on. If corn continues the slid I will have to take a stop for my Oct 450 put.

T.J. 7-24-13

Market took a dive from this morning. I am not good at trading such trend days even in SIM. I took long at 3 different levels and they all got killed.

All of my put sales didn't get fill. I didn't chase any of them. There always is tomorrow. There are two gaps below. 1675 gap fill is only few point away. After hour's earning reports were surprisingly good. FB, BIDU, TRIP went up more than 10%. I caught a call option on TRIP. It should be a good 100% reward tomorrow. My SPY call had one at 40% fill but the other one is under water now. I will have to make a decision tomorrow.

T.J. 7-23-13

Many pros expected to see 1700 this morning since the overnight high was only 5 point away from the psychological number. As it often happens the market is counter intuitive and not granting people's wishes. ES started dropping in the first hour. I think the big guys are just trying to shake out the late longs. They don't like too many people dragging on their coat tails. Another explanation is that they need more inventory above.

Grains had a big sell off day. It approved I was wrong again. I exit out yesterday with higher target. I still need to work on my discipline. I had a better than b/e stop and should have let it run. I just couldn't overcome the fear of losing the profit since I had a loss in wheat the same day. I also had a perfect reversal entry to short wheat yesterday but I raised it too far and didn't get fill.

T.J. 7-22-13 Monday

The trend continues. ES touched a new high of 1693. A fib 23.7 target is at 1702 and BBD top band is near 1710. I scaled out 1/3 of my 1710 call sale for a 56% gain. I need to scale more out in case of a quick push up.

DB had a stop out on wheat today. I upped my corn short target and exited at closing. The two positions ended with a small $80 profit.

T.J. 7-19-13, Surprised Again

 The market drifted below yesterday's low overnight. I thought it was forming a head and shoulder considering Google and Microsoft was hammered after their earning reports. S&P chopped most of the day as expected on an options expiration Friday.  It started pushing up in the last two hours and closed to a new high of 1690.

I had a call sale filled after cash closing for August 2, 1725. It's two week away and may be endanger if the market act relentlessly pushing up like in mid May. I will manage the risk next week.

I have only one scalp of ES options this week. Missed a 1695 call sale yesterday considering it was too risky. There was not a decent pull back this week for me to get in a put. Well, I didn't force any trade and only to wait for what market would give to me. Better be safe than sorry.

T.J. 7-18-13 Pop and Drop

ES popped right off the gate and all the way to 1688 this morning. It then flagged most of the day. This type of price action is hard to trade since there are not much swings. After closing, both Google and Microsoft missed their earning estimate and futures start falling. Tomorrow is Friday and monthly options expiration day.

I didn't get any fill today because it didn't reach my call selling target. Get watch for the down side risk as a pull back is expected. A short term down trend is possible.

T.J. 7-17-13 Again

ES has tried to break to the new high again and it get knocked on the head again. Mr. Bernanke testified in Congress this morning. He basically provided the same message regarding QE3 tapering.  ES pushed up to the new high couple ticks and fall down again. S&P is still in a flag pattern or could be a double top formation. It should unveil itself in the next few days.

My SPY call options didn't do well. I changed exit targets too often. The 1680 call made some money but the 1690 is losing it. I need to exit out most of my positions tomorrow.

T.J 7-16-13 Unexpected

Almost every pros thought that we would break out to a new high today when looked at the price action yesterday. My plan was to react to the new highs today. After the open, ES tested 1 tick above o/n high and started falling. It was totally unexpected. It appears that the ES formed a double top from May 21. However, the up trend is still intake. ES closed right below yesterday's low and positioned to go either way tomorrow. I guess it's waiting for Ben's testimony to Congress tomorrow morning. No one want's to fight Mr. Bernanke.

Expect unexpected!

T.J. 7-15-13 Monday

The market has maintained its uptrend without any meaningful pull back. It's only about 5 points away from the all time high reached on May 21. Any price target above that it's anybody's guess.

I set couple call sale levels but so far nothing has been filled. It's riskier to sell calls base on my past experience. I am waiting for the prices come to me. I got a fill of 1710 C for 280 after hour.

The bulls have been very cautions. They take small steps each day. ES shopped 1 point short of 5-21 high. It may be building energy to break out this balance area. YM and TF both set new highs last week already.  

T.J. 7-12-13 Chaching Friday

It's cha ching Friday again. My 1515 puts sales and 1605 put scalp look like going to expire worthless. ES has been in a 7 point range testing over night high and low all morning. ES may be not ready to take out a new high this week. There are d top above and a big gap below. Next week may have some volatile movement if nothing happens today. I may not have any position for next week.

There are no any grain trade triggered from DB today. ZC and ZS are down and ZW holds well.

T.J. 7-11-13 After Ben's Speach

After Mr Bernanke's speech after the closing ES popped about 15 points and was hanging up there until today's open. It chopped for several hours within a 6 point range. I had couple price levels to sell calls for a quick 2 day scalp but they never get filled. I was able to held myself to lower my prices. I am glad that I put risk control as my first consideration. ES is likely to break the high of 1681 for a new high since YM and NQ bother made it through.

There is always another trade will come alone. Just be patient.

T.J. 7-10-13 Fed Min Releasing

Fed meeting minutes release this afternoon and the markets reacted up and down. ES tested 1553 and O/N low. It settled back to mid again. It's another doji like day.

I sold a put of 1605 for a 2 day scalping of $120, or roughly 0.6% of return on margin (ROM). Also sold some 1575 7/26 monthly ES to leg in. It may be a bit too close. I will have to manage the risk of it. I am out of Aug ZC put for a 40% profit. It was in danger for a while.

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T.J. 7-8-13

ES continues moving up in a slow but decisive pace. It may test 1650-55 CLVA today.  I am still waiting for it to reach my price of selling calls. There is always tomorrow if not today. Tomorrow is Fed meeting minute at 2pm and Mr Bernanke speaks at 4:10pm. These are market movers. I should wait after Ben speaks to see market direction.

All grains are up today. My ZC of August was closed for over 95% profit.

T.J. 7-8-13 Monday Again

ES gaped up to 1631-1638 zone and has been chopping all day. It's near BBD upper line and crossed BB mid on weekly chart. It's continuing to challenge 1650-1660 area and above 1670 may bring it to its new high. Bears have to defend 1670 and below.

I am just patiently waiting for an edge to sell my options when it's getting to my level. It's a choppy day. Earnings season started today. Alcoa beats estimate.

No fills in ES nor SPY hedging. I took a half off my QIHU and CAMP as they hit my initial targets.

T.J. 7-5-13 Cha Ching Friday

It looks like all of my ES puts are going to expire worthless. The scalp call of 1635 was under water yesterday since I didn't check the futures were open on July 4th. However the level I picked was not breached. It went up to 1530 pre market with ECB rate announcement and better than expected US job numbers.

On the other hand, my GLD call seams not that lucky. It gaped down this morning and my last one will expire worthless. It went up to 100% on Wednesday but didn't my target of gap fill. It was no set up to begin with. No discipline nor confirmation. Doomed to fail.

T.J. 7-3-13 None Event

ES dropped to 1594 over night perhaps caused by Egypt's unrest. It recovered in the morning after ADP's positive job report. I had 3 winning ES SIM trade and recovered from yesterday's loss. Also entered a 1635 call selling for a quick scalp with free margin. I should be home free if ES doesn't gap up above 1621 into CHVA. I resisted the temptation to get in 1630 with higher premiums of $1.5. It's just too close to daily upper range.

Gold still couldn't push into gap zone despite the overnight pop. It reached $1.5 but not to my target and fall off. I am going to hold it to Friday and risking a loss of 50-70%. It may double if we get a pop into the gap zone.

T.J. 7-2-13 Choppy

The same pattern has happened for 3 days so far. The market run up in the morning and drop in the afternoon. Today's drop was earlier than before due to Egypt's un-resting.  Technically, ES and NQ are both  struggling with challenging their 50 ma and gap fill.

Gold is in a choppy zone today. My call option fall from 80% up yesterday to under water today. Will manage it tomorrow since Thursday is off.

T.J. 7-1-13 Monday

ES retested last Friday's low over night and pushed up from open. It closed half of the gap from the Fed meeting drop. It couldn't completely close the gap of 1622 and pulled back to retest the lower end of CLV area and open before closing. It's a similar pattern of last Friday.  It seams the market is not confident enough to stay high overnight. It may stay range bounded for this July 4th week baring from any major news.