Be Thankful 11-27-13

The market just won't take a breath. It's still holding above 1800 for ES. We had a 6 point range today. I got couple calls and puts scalp at close range expecting not much move on the day after Thanksgiving.

I am thankful as my effort start paying off. I can see some lights at end of the tunnel. This will mark my first year of profit if I continue to make good trades and manage my risk well in December.  

Higher Highs 11-25-13

Market gaped up on Sunday night with Iran's nuclear deal. The trend continues. It was a 9 point range day and about 1 point higher than last Friday. It hasn't had much volatility lately. I didn't have anything filled today. It's Thanksgiving week now. Everything will slow down. But with thin volume it could move quick too.

I continue evaluating grains and bond options. Just make sure safety first.

All About Fed 11-20-13

Fed minutes was released at 2pm and market reacted negatively for certain languages implying a possible earlier tapering. It was a 20 point move day with morning break yesterday's high and afternoon tested Feb 50% RT.

I didn't get any fill for my ES orders although the price touched my first level of support. It looks like we may have another leg down before the weekend. I may have chance to fill my orders for next two weeks. Tomorrow's jobless claim and Friday's unemployment report will provide further information regarding tapering. 

My SPY calls made 40% profit and closed this AM. I entered another one after Fed min and based on Vader's twit. It was an undisciplined trade. My subconscious didn't stop my impulsive action. My plan was watch the full movement of Fed minute reaction before taking any action. Now my 1779 SPY calls are under water. I even added another one at 40C to average down. Got to exit it out tomorrow. 

Another New High 11-22-13

As many predicted based on yesterday's price action ES reached a new high and closed at 1801.5. It was another no 3 points pull back day. I planed several orders but no fills until I raised my entry to 1750 from 1735 after cash closing.

I am experimenting ZS puts to add it to my trading line. I had ZW, ZC orders but no fills either today. ZB can make sudden large move based on past actions so get be careful. It was a profitable but small week on ES selling. I waited for the price come to me but often than not I didn't get any fills day after day. It put quite emotional drain on my psychological capital. It's not easy to wait to get paid. It's required for long term success.

Unexpected 11-21-13

ES held at 1775 (Fib 50% RT) overnight and pushed up after European open. My last night's hypothesis didn't work. I thought there would be an attempt of test the gap zone this morning and it didn't happen either. It just kept going up with only one 3 points pull back. The move saved my SPY calls today and turned it into a 25% profit trade. The up trend continues and we may see a new high tomorrow.

Obviously I didn't get any fill for my planed ES entries from last night. I tried to sell ZB puts after couple paper trades but no fill today.    

Yo Yo Action 11-19-13

My primary thesis was down this morning based on overnight range. I didn't know what to expect when FT said that he expected a choppy day in the morning Trader's Bit. It turned out to be wild swings within a 11 point range. It breached both high and low of overnight range.  Bulls and bears fought hard from top to bottom. Today's low was Fib 38% RT from Nov. 8 break out.

I only had one put sell of 1715 of Dec 6 filled. I shall wait for tomorrow to get my scalp of this week and another leg in for next week since the hourly down trend still intact. It would be third down day if tomorrow is down again. I took a SPY call near today's with Vader's twits and took half off 42% but the one left was dragged down with the closing. I have to decide what to do tomorrow along with my ES call which is under water now. I didn't take profit yesterday with 200% return. It failed too quick after ES 1799.75.

A Real Pull Back? 11-18-13

ES opened up to 1799.75, only 1 tick short of 1800. It got smashed down from there. It even pushed through last Friday's low in the last hour but moved back inside before closing. It's a bear engulfing bar today. Would it repeat Nov 7 and 8 reversals?

I exited my 1810, Nov 29 call at noon since it reached my stop point on this morning's push up. The price was about $1 less than my original plan. Although it went down further but I feel good that I honored my plan. I may sell it at higher price if we get a pop in the next couple days.

CL dropped over 1% today and closed near low of the day. It looks like a bear flag at double bottom and low of BB low. Is it a retest of low or another leg down? I may add another OTM put around $82-80 if it break down.

Chaching Friday 11-15-13

It's the pay day again. All winners. I didn't have scalps in ES but experimented CL/LO. Am I too conservative in this bull market? I had only 1/3 of my planed position in ES this week. There was no a single day of pull back. It has been 6 up weeks for the market according to Vader.

I am thinking about using CL/LO for expiration weeks scalping mainly. Need to learn more about this volatile market.

Let's see what next week will bring. I would think the last week of Nov will be slow due to the holiday.

New High 11-14-13

Both ES and Dow set new high again today although the range were small. Market was encouraged by Yellen's comment in Congress's confirmation hearing. ES had 11.25 point range. Market appears setting up for option expiration tomorrow.

I exited out my 1800 call sell position with a small loss and left my 1810 call. It was a right plan. My 1810 call is doubled now and should cover the small loss if ES move high tomorrow. I may close it tomorrow to void time decay and lock in profit. I may set a credit spread for my 1810 call sell of EOM.

I started using CL options for scalping this week. It has better premium that ES when near expiration. Crud oil is a much volatile instrument. I should use it with farther OTM and shorter time frame. First is to identify large trend and stay with it. Second is to make sure a daily level is breached, then trade from opposite side of the trend and levels.

Every day's home work and identify key levels help me looking at bigger pictures. Any plan is better than no plan.

A Big Pop 11-13-13

I thought we could have a good pull back today based on the lower lows of last two days and below 1758 at open this AM. I was ready to use this drop to enter some new puts and exit my 1800 call with a small profit. I didn't realize it was an OD when FT71 mentioned it after the open. There were several resistance levels to overcome. It turned out to be a bull engulfing day bar. ES closed at a new high of 1779, crossed Fib 23 target.

My levels for tomorrow: S 1779, 1773 and 1768, R: 1786, 1789, Fib 50 target; 1793 TL and 1797 WR.

I will have to unwind my 1800 spread and possible hedge my 1810 for month end. My CL puts are working. It turned out the CL inventory report is Thursday this week. Guess it was affected by government shut down?

Flagging 11-12-13

ES had a 10 point pull back before that 2 pm magic time. It hit my first S level of 1760. It come to my next week's entry of 1705 at 2.55 but didn't fill me then pushed up. I had to move my entry price up to 2.15 and 2.25 to get fill for both QII and my own accounts.

CL was a different story. It retested yesterday's high at open and crashed to near the last low. It looks like big traders tried to clean the deck for tomorrow's inventory report. I made a mistake yesterday. My subconscious told me to wait for confirmation of break to the upside before sell puts but I wasn't patience enough to wait. I entered a put sell of 90 for 6c and it hit 14 today when CL lost $2, about 2%. I added 1 at 13C. I will have to take a stop if we get another big drop after tomorrow's inventory report. I will take a farther OTM to recover the loss.

Calm before a Storm? 11-11-13

It's a very slow Monday and Veteran's Day. ES had a 6 point range only. It stayed on top portion of last Friday and very high end of the CHVA. ES looks like ready to break out higher. I didn't sell any ES position due to the small range. I entered a next week call of 1810 to set a call credit spread in order to protect my 1800 position.

I entered a small far OTM for crude oil for next month. I want to add a new dimension to my trading of selling future options. Tried a scalp for this month but didn't get fill. My short of wheat was no fill either.

Tomorrow, my levels are, R 1774.5 D-top, 1782 of trend line and R line. S, 1760, 1753 and 1748 of IHS neck line.

Lucky Friday 11-8-13

It was luck to void a possible train rack today. There were only 2 of 14 positions closed overnight. I decided to close most of the near money position before the job report at 8:30 am. I did close 1730 with a small profit and 2 of 6 1735 before the report. I was exposed with a potential loss of the 1735. The job number was much better than expected, 220K vs 120K expected. ES tested 1736.25, the very end of the large balanced area. It couldn't break it and push up all day to yesterday's broken down point of 1767. It erased all the lost of yesterday. My assumption was it would pull back to test BBD/M for a set up of going lower. But it pushed through. Looks like the bulls are not ready to give up and want to charge higher.

What I did right and wrong in this week.
1. I made a decision to control risk and honor my stops this morning. I exited some positions before open this morning.
2. I was patience for the most of the week, except yesterday. I was not very calm during the high volatile time.
3. I had plan to manage my positions. Although the plan was not perfect and partially come on the fly. Any plan is better than no plan.
4. I over traded yesterday.  I entered 15 contracts during the high volatile time and 12 of them were for this week's scalping. I exceeded my weekly planed number of contract. Had a total of 19 for this week. It could have been a disaster if ES has a different reaction to today's job number. I will limit my contract number to 12 per week with current margin amount.
5. In the heat of market swings I forget I need to trade my IB personal account too.

Luck is good. But don't rely on luck for business profit. It may run out one day and cause a big loss. Must methodically manage each trade like a pro.    

Least Expected, T.J. 11-7-2013

Market turns often happen when you lest expected. Everything was pointing up this morning when ECB dropped rate and US GDP came out better than expected. ES hit 1775 high pre market with ECB news. May be the GDP was the underlying fact for the drop. Better GDP = Better employment numbers? I didn't think about that earlier.

ES had about 30 point swing and 21 points drop. The ranges are much bigger than I expected. I over traded at 1735 level and kept add positions to average out. Entered 15 contracts and committed most of margins for today. My 1735 puts are about 1.5Xs under water. I may have to take a stop overnight or tomorrow if it gaps down with job numbers. I need to limit my number of cars allowed per day to better manage risk.

Tomorrow's market movement is very much depending on the job numbers at 8:30 AM. Remember that a bad number is good for the market and a good number may trigger a sell off. My levels are: S, 1737, 1732, 1727 and 1723. R: 1755, 1762 and 1767.

Hard to be Patience 11--6-13

The consolidation continues. ES moved higher overnight. It gaped up and reached 1770 after open and had a clear rejection. Then it came down to yesterday's VPOC but didn't close the gap. It chopped in a 5 point range for the rest of the day.

I had about 3-5 orders from scalp to next two weeks but no fills. It's been hard to stay inaction. I haven't had any major fill for 7 days now. It's the longest period without action since I started this system. I guess it indicate the my patience and discipline have improved. The MACD in IB chart is going lower while price of ES keep inching up. The market is waiting for Friday's job report. Volatility will come by then.

T.J. 11-5-13 Still a Bull

I kept expecting a deeper pull back this week. John Carter's cycle theory enforced my thesis. But for the last five days every morning's push down met with buyers pushing it up in the afternoon. My support level 2 didn't get hit so as all of my entries of puts. ES is in a daily squeeze channel now. It may get resolved after this Friday's job report or sooner.

I was only able to get in a scalp of 1720. I don't have anything for next two weeks. I guess my patience is running thin. Need to recognize and control my emotions. I paper traded bond and SPY credit spread today. Grains are still weak. I will wait for this Friday's DOA's production report and may get in some position next week.

ES looks like a bull flag now. Tomorrow's S levels are: 1756, 1752 and 1743.5; R levels are: 1770, 1775 (new high) and 1778. If we break in a new high there may be a new balance area. I will try to sell puts on any pull backs but not sell calls for the next two weeks unless there is a clear rejection of new high.

T.J. 11-4-13 No Pull Back

It was a up but choppy Monday. ES opened with a 6 point gap from o/n high. It pulled back to cash closing of last Friday which I didn't notice. I had an long order at the after hour closing and didn't get filled. It looks like the shallow is over after Friday's doji but closed above BBD/M. ES is challenging Fib 68 RT from the all time high. It may test the new high soon if we don't get a reversal tomorrow. I didn't have any fill of options today.

Tomorrow's up targets are 1769.5 and 1773 of the new high. Below are 1756 and 1748.

T.J. 11-1-13 A Small Chaching Friday

It's Chaching Friday again. My gain was smaller due to the stop of 1760 calls and lack of pb before FOMC. Combined with Thursday's month end expiration it totaled to $930. I didn't have any fill today despite more than normal orders pending ES didn't came far enough to my expected levels and I didn't chase them much.
I would rather wait to see what early next week will bring. My expectation is that the market may pull back further to BBD/M and MACD has 2 red bars so far. There have not been enough volatility. Today's push down at closing showing that sellers are still active. On the other hand I am prepared to be left behind if the market start to go up early next week.

I feel frustrated that I didn't have any new position today. I am learning to accept it as part of business, in business and life you don't get what you want every time. Guess I just need to follow my rules and wait for the market come to me.