Pop Champion!!! 12-31-13

I didn't expect it as a trending day. After a small sell off at noon buyers stepped in pushing market to a new high at end of the day. I guess wall street was popping champions to celebrate the great year of 2013. 

I was able to get a position in on the small pull back for week 2 of Jan. But I didn't exit my 1855 call short and added one more to it. This last minute of change plan may cost me more if the market gap up after new year's day. I lowered my entry from 325 to 275 instead of stay disciplined. 

I need to add Fib levels to my commodity option selling. It will give me a bigger picture view. I was too early in my CL and Soybean entries in the last few days without waiting for a better levels. 

It has been a great turn around year for my trading career. I will do an review this weekend and layout plan for next year. 

Waiting 12-30-13

A very slow day as the new year is approaching. ES had only 4.5 point range. People are waiting for the new year. Last two years had gap up and go right after new years day and never looked back. Will 2014 repeat it? Either way the up trend is still in tack.

I had two ES Jan-3 scalps filled before closing. I entered a CL/LO put sale as the trend turned up and had a pb today. It's 9.5% away but 54 days long. Anything could happen during this time and be ready to exit out.

Nothing New 12-27-13

Every day is a new high for the last five sessions. I guess market is just holding up and waiting for the new year to start. I don't have any order filled. I don't want to force to trade either. I don't have to trade when conditions are not right. Although I do feel anxiety and no accomplishment. But that is part of the business.

Santa's Gift 12-26-13

ES made a new high again the day after Christmas. Although it was a small range day but there was no pull rotation down either. Bulls are fully in control now. The real battle may have to wait after New Year.

I didn't have anything for ES today. I keyed in exit orders for all of my 6 month end positions. If they get filled tomorrow I could save few days margin interest and more fund to trade.

New High before Santa 12-24-13

It's only a half trading day before Christmas. ES set another new high of 1828.50. There was not even a three point rotation down. I didn't have any trade today. I am just waiting for time decay on my existing positions. I only have 6 cars each for this week and end of the month due to the waiting for Fed meeting last Wednesday. It was a right thing to do not to fully loaded before the Fed announcement.

Winding Down 12-23-13

Market continues trending up today but the ranges and volumes are down. ES reached my two measured Fib 23% target today and still hanging up there. Next target is at 1830-32, but tomorrow is only a half trading day before Christmas.

I didn't have any new position today. I tried CL, ES Jan-10 and ZB put sell but no fill. Get be patience. ZB had a big $5 surge at 3am for no news or obvious reason. It shows how volatile this baby can be.

I am learning credit spread and iron condor now. Hope to add to my system next year.

GDP Matters Now 12-20-13

The final GDP for last quarter adjusted to 4.2% instead previous 3.8% annual rate. Market gaped up. The theme has changed. It used to be good news of GDP and jobless rate are bad for the market. Because they were afraid of tapering. Now the tapering is here. Market has to stand on the real economic growth instead of Fed now.

It's chaching Friday again. I had my best week so far.

Take a Breather 12-19-13

Market took a breath today. ES was a inside day and had only 9 point range. Both overnight high and low were intact. Tomorrow is quadruple witching option expirations which should provide some volatility.

I didn't have any new position today. I will try to get in some by tomorrow to take advantage of slowing holiday and market closing decays. Of course, safety first.

Ben Did It Skillfully 12-18-13

The most anticipated Fed announcement came out with a tapering of $10 billion and Fed emphasizing on keeping the low rate for a long time. Market initially dropped 50SMA and rallied up. ES closed at a new high of 1810 for Dec contract. I didn't expect a taper before Christmas but my hypothesis of drop and pop worked out with agony at initial drop.

My 1750 put sell was exited during the volatile move. All of my put sell positions are in good shape now. I went into a call sell of 1835 way too early and without checking the chart again. I got carried away during the heated time. My plan was stay out of the movement and let the dust settle first. I will manage my risk in the next two days.

It looks like Santa's rally finally come. I will sell some of my mid/long term positions for tax purposes in the next two weeks.

Clear Deck & Wait 12-17-13

As expected the pros are clearing deck and waiting for the Fed. Market was down but only in a 8 point range. ES parked in CLVA. It's ready to move either way tomorrow. All eyes are on Fed tomorrow. It will reset market's mood and direction.

I legged in a Jan 3 put for 100 point out just in case it pops tomorrow and take advantage of holiday decays. I made a mistake again by moving closing price of 1750 this week. It missed by 10c and I still have this bad habit of move price the last min.

Going No Where 12-13-13

It's the fourth down day now. ES had the same pattern as yesterday: attempts of pushing higher were nocked on head. It got sold off at closing again. The day for ES was unchanged. It looks like that at least Fib 61.8% of 1766 area is in play. If that's the case then I have to exit out my 1750 position.

I exited out my 1765 scalp for this week overnight with a small profit. I have all winners this week with full or partial profit. Of course the goal is not been 100% but manage my risk. In this regard I didn't do very well this week. I was not very patience last week and early this week when market was very slow. I kind forced in couple positions, such as 1765 for this week and 1750, 1740 for next week. Get to keep in mind that market goes circles, volatility goes from compression to expansion.

Next week is FOMC week. I am fully loaded and need to manage my risk.

Overnight Reversal 12-16-13

Sunday night US market had a flash sell after Asia opened. ES worked to Fib 61.8 and 50 SMA. I thought it was going to be a big down day this morning. I was surprised when I woke up and look up market data in bed this AM. It appeared that market had a big reversal with European market open. ES had a 20 point reversal and formed a bullish engulfing candle. I haven't seen this kind of overnight reversal since European crises tow years ago.

I think the major world financial markets are all waiting for the Fed meeting this Wednesday. No one is willing to push the market to extreme just in case Fed pull another rabbit.

My 1750 position is saved for now. I will try to exit out tomorrow to be ready for Fed day. Although it may not make any money but I can free some margin for new position and reduce my risk.

Choppy Low 12-12-13

ES made several attempts to get back yesterday's range but failed at closing. It tested mid of CLVA and around Fib 50 RT from Nov 8 low reversal to most recent high. It could bounce from here or further test Fib 61.8% around 1765. If we go down further it would take the market back to prior balanced area. Is the market ready to do that before Fed's meeting next week?

I exited two position of this week with over 90% profit to release some margin. I had only 30k left from yesterday's carried away trades. I entered one at 1690 for week 4. I may exit 1765 scalp less than 15 points away for this week tonight. Just to be safe and in case another drop tomorrow on weekly option expiration.

I took stop for my SPY calls. I didn't act quick enough to minimize my losses although it's less than $100. but it's over 90% loss. I am still not good at directional options.

Here Comes the PB 12-11013

I predicted a lower day last night but didn't expect it gone this far. It was a 23 points down day for ES. One would think a budget deal is good news for the economy. But Wall street is so addicted to QE.

I didn't know the news and its impact when the day started. FT's Trader Bits didn't think it was a big factor either. I started release my puts sell order when ES testing the overnight low in the morning. I thought my S1 or S2 would hold it for today. Apparently the market sentiment turned very negative although the sell off was orderly. I got carried away with my assumption of small pull back based on the small range of last two days and the uptrend. My scalps of 1765 and 1760 went under water by mid day. My further out of money and time order were filled within the first hour too. I guess underneath I had fear of missing. I entered 11 contracts today. My margin is getting low. I get to be ready to take stop for my 1765 if the market comes with a big follow through tomorrow.

My first credit spread of index ETF IWM got crashed today too. The lesson here is that I didn't exit out yesterday when it was profitable and I knew it was a reckless order. Instead I thought I could take a chance since there were only 2 days to expiration. Now it's in the money and $130 in red. I will manage my risk or take stop before expiration.    

Small Ranges 12-10-13

Market fall below yesterday's range overnight. ES couldn't get back into yesterday's range after AM's try, but it didn't fall much either. It has only 7 point range, slightly better than yesterday. I guess the holiday and next week's Fed FOMC meeting are in traders' mind.

I was able to get in two ES positions for next week. USDA's world supply and demand report caused some volatile move but the grain complex moved back in range before closing. No major reset occurred.

News of a budget deal reached in Congress pushed market high after hour but falling back to the lower part of profile before middle night. Market may explore lower side tomorrow.

Monday Rule? 12-9-13

Market gaped up overnight and chopped all day. ES had less than 6 points, unusual for a Monday. Is the bull getting weak or just gathering energy? There are still room in this up trend. I will wait for a pull back to get in. Follow the trend until it's not a trend any more.

I didn't have any fill today since the range was so small. I wasn't aggressive enough to exit my corn and bean position. Tomorrow's USDA WSDR report will generate volatility. Grain market will reset base on the report. My bean call sell may be at risk since bean is in strong demand. My corn pull sell is counter-trend but below multi year low. I will try to exit bean over night.

Good Jobs Report, No Drop 12-6-13

This morning's job number came out better than expected but market pushed up after initial test of the lower edge of current balanced area. ES erased this weeks loss and closed at 1806. It appears Santa's rally just started.

I didn't get any puts in since there was no drop after open. I only had a scalp of 1810 call sell. It's not bad for several hours of holding. All of my positions for this week are profitable. The last four days drop helped to bring back volatility. I had full load of contracts for the first time since I increased the limit to 10 per week. This is my best week in terms of $ amount, even call sell worked.

Next week is grain demand report. I need to get out of my ZC and ZS holding's before Tuesday. Remember: Risk control first.

Waiting for the Job Report 12-5013

The waiting of the job report is almost over. ES traded in the lower part of yesterday's range all day. Tomorrow could be the same themes: good job number would be bad for the market. It's more than likely a volatile morning. I planned some orders for a ES big pull back. If it pops then we may look at a starting of Santa's rally.

I exited out my 1770 position in my personal account with a small profit just in case ES drops. I followed my plan and felt much better.

Engulfing: Bull or Bear? 12-4-13

It was a wild day. ES broke both over night high and low. After it broke yesterday's high for a few ticks before lunch I thought it was an up day. However, the selling started slowly until yesterday's open was crossed. My first S line was hit over night, my 2nd and 3rd S lines both reacted with a strong bounce. It finally reached Fib 78 RT within 1 point of my 3rd S line and a 20 point push back. Now the daily up trend and last balance area held. A new daily up channel formed. Today's candle looks like a bullish engulfing but it closed at yesterday's closing and still below yesterday' candle body. ES formed a doji with over night data. We may have a attempt of pushing lower but today's rejection was fairly strong. In waiting for Friday's job report I guess it is more than likely a balanced day tomorrow and we had a thorough action of 22 points.

I added two ES positions on today's push down. ES 1770 put in my IB holding reached my stop point of $6 briefly but quickly moved away. I had a exit stop loss order ready and prepared to enter a new order further out. That is a progress. I may exit it out tomorrow with a small profit just in case Friday's report drops the market. ZB is a little shaky too. I missed a further out entry by a tick. It's only 2 days from expiration but still not decaying at all.

All eyes are on Friday's job report. I will play defense until then.

PB Day Two 12-4-13

Pull back day two follow though as expected. ES had a 12.25 point range. My S2 was hit within 1.75 point. We may see Fib 78 if 62 % could not hold tomorrow. ES is back into previous balance area now.

I had bunch of orders spread into next two weeks but only two were filled. I reduced my order size for safety curtain in case this pull back is more severer.  

I am getting better at identifying S/R levels as my home work. The key is to work on waiting for the levels calmly. I am still too eager to trade. I held a SPY call option called by Vader today which I did right. I will wait to see if we have a possible turn around tomorrow or Thursday when people re-position for the job report.

New Month, New Pattern? 12-2-13

Today is Monday and the beginning of Dec. It appears that volatility is coming back. ES reached 1812, Fib 23 target last Friday although it was only a half trading day. It got sold pretty hard before closing. Today ES had a similar pattern. ES 11.75 range and reached all of my three support levels. Now I have to learn to incorporate the levels into my orders during the heat of price movement. I often forget to check these levels while totally concentrated on price movement.

I closed my CL put position when it got to over 80% profit and 17 days left. It's a good practice to lock in profit with this kind of volatile asset.

I also got in a put of ZB weekly put for the first time. This seams a different type of future option. It can be slow for days then make a sudden big move with rate related news. It's not decay much with only 4 days to expiration. I have to be careful with it.

I started my first credit spread in live account entering IWM 2 weeks out. It had 1% drop today and I am only 2% out of money. I wasn't patience enough to wait for it testing Fib 38%. I will have to exit it if this pull back continue for 2 more days. I didn't even check risk / probability profile before the trade. It also has a $750/$90 RR ratio.

It's likely another down day for tomorrow base on today's closing. There are some low volume areas below. This could be a pull back needed before they run up to a new high by year end. If this pull back become a more serious correction I will need to take my stops swiftly.

Ranging 11-26-13

Another 9 point range day with similar pattern: grinding up and fall down in the last hr. The difference today is that it didn't push up at closing. Hopefully we will get a pull back tomorrow before traders leave for Thanksgiving.

I didn't get any fill for ES and any other major position. I entered a ZC put based on a seasonality of last 5 & 10 years' December pattern. It has been up in most Decembers. CL is down again and I may get a chance with tomorrow's inventory report.