Monday Reversal? 3-30-15

My plan:

Indices futures raised up since Sunday night open. Asian markets were leading the pack. European followed up. ES pushed through 2059, thehigh of last two trading days. It moved back into the range of break down and high of CHVA. The upper target is 2075 of the CLVN. If it close above there, ES may be back to the prior balance area. However the daily and 4hr chart pattern are in the p/b and drop formation. There is a gap below at 2052 and CHVN at 2038. My plan is to sell more puts and reduce my call positions based on the overall up trend. Also need to monitor my risk warning levels and learn more about IB's Risk Navigator.

Grains are in range with wheat moved up and soybean's moved down. I plan to reduce my positions in wheat and soybean before tomorrow's USDA planting acreage report.  

My execution:

Indices gaped up at open and never looked back. ES and RUT both tested the breaking down point before closing. NQ didn't get that far. Now it's hard to tell which way the market is going to go since both side of seen of crime was tested. I sold three SPX bear calls for May. I will get ready to exit if we get blow off top and grind up.

Wheat had a surprisingly 4+% pop. I close 490 and 500 puts for this month. Corn is firm and soybean is weak before tomorrow's report. I didn't close any of positions there. I will try to reduce soybean positions tomorrow. It has not followed it's seasonal trends so far. Will the report do the trick tomorrow?

Weekly Reviews 3-28-15

Volatility increased on Wednesday this week. Indices bear flags are still waving on Friday's closing. My attention is switched back to indices trading now. The P/L for the week is $2.88K including $1.3K in old wheat trades. I made two trading mistakes on Thursday which I listed on that day's review.

Grains were some what weak with wheat been down the most. I got pinned at $5.0 for wheat's expiring contract. I will lightening my wheat bull puts on Monday before the USDA Acreage Report.

My plan for next week is to continue implement Karen's far OTM system, further research IB' risk analyzer. With that tool, I may need to reduce my risk further.

Another Battle 3-27-15

My plan:

Indices futures stayed in a small range within yesterday's upper part. The four hour charts of ES and TF looks like B band squeeze down formation. But they are in the CHVA and could be choppy. Bulls and bears could have another fight. Fed Yellen will speak at 3:45 this afternoon right before market closing. It could provide some firework. I plan to sell puts in ES, SPX, on on balance for RUT. Watch for margin levels.

Grains are in range on this expiration day. I will just be a watcher for today.

My execution:

Indices traded in a 10 point small range within yesterday's small range. Yellen's speech didn't produce any strong reaction. I had 1 RUT May 3, 1330 call filled. ES closed at HOD but still outside of Thursday's range. It may explore the CLVA of 2050-80 or drop down to 2020 early next week.

Grains closed firm. No other trade except a expired wheat call.

Selling Continues 3-26-15

My plan:

Indices futures dropped feather overnight. Europe and Asia have down more than 1% except China. ES is off 15 points and back in its previous balance area. All gaps left on the way up are filled now. ES may chop in this CHVA. The target below is 2038, Fib 50 RT and 2020, Fib 61.8% on weekly. The up target is gap fill at 2053 and 63 I plan to sell SPX credit spread and ES far out puts and add bear calls on balance. I will close some mutual positions to reduce my margins.

Grains are slightly down after a less exciting export report. I will continue to let my positions to decay except adding on balance.

My execution:

Indices held overnight low today. My theses was right. Sellers took a break and let ES, NQ closed the gap. Bulls and bears will have another fight tomorrow since indices still closed outside of yesterday's range. I made two mistakes today: one was traded Thomas's weekly SPX setup without testing it in paper account. One top of it I forgot to put minors sign again when key in two contracts. Luckily I got 25 credit for each, I then added two more at $50. I will exit the position out tomorrow or after the weekend for B/E or a small profit.  

Wheat had an unexpected sell off on the day before options expiration. It dropped over 20 points to pin the $5 mark. I had to close my $5 bull put at 2 and took another put in May at 4.55 for 2.5. I made money but it was something I shouldn't left on the book. Good thing that I had a plan just in case.

Revisit Seen of Crime 3-25-15

My plan:

Indices futures stayed in lower range of yesterday's day session. ES tested overnight high and failed. It looks like on the way to check the FOMC breakout area of 2060. The key is to watch if that area would hold. It didn't hold last month if I remember correctly. My plan is to sell puts, credit spread when it reach to 2065 for ES and 1250 for RUT. I should save some bp in case they break down further.

Grains have been in range but pull back a little.  My plan is to wait out but add put to corn and calls to soybean with free margin if the conditions are right.

My execution:

Indices had big selling day (-1.5-2.3%) without any major news. FOMC breakout was fully tested and didn't hold well. I made 9 trades today. 2 close out and 7 new positions with 5 in RUT which was down 2.3%. I might have over traded. I still have more buying power in Etrade and Fidelity. SPX may give better opportunities after losing 1.46% today. However, it has not reached FIB 50% RT yet. I will try to sell some puts there, then Fib 61.8 and 78.6 at 2010 area.

Grains are still range bounded. I am letting wheat to expire at end of this week. No trade here today.

First Attempt Often Fail 3-24-15

My plan:

Indices futures stayed in range overnight despite China's PMI lower than expected. ES looks like ready to break yesterday's before open. There is a gap below Friday's low at 2083 and FOMC seen of crime at 2060 area for ES. ES 2007 and 2012 are upper target. My plan is to sell bull puts on weakness.

Grains are mixed bags. Corn and soybean held in yesterday's range, wheat filled yesterday's small gap overnight. Wheat is trading above 50SMA for the 3rd day. Corn is fighting to get cross it. My plan is the same as yesterday.

My execution:

Indices moved to the downside after testing overnight high. ES/SPX closed last Friday's gap before closing. I sold couple ES April 4 puts and one SPX. RUT held up well relative to the others. ES may test FOMC breakout area in next couple of days. I get to watch if it will hold for the test.

Grains were in range. No trade in this front today.

Up Trend Continues 3-23-15

My plan:

Indices futures held up well overnight. ES is on the last CHVN and looks ready to pop or drop. My plan is to refrain from selling calls and take any meaningful put back to sell puts. We may see more down side if ES break below 2093. On the upside, ES 2110 will set a new high and may grind up.

Grains lows appears set for now. USD's decline helped. My plan is the same as last week. May consider to add small puts positions with balanced view in corn and wheat.

My execution:

Indices was in a small range but held up until closing. ES went down to overnight low of 2094.5. Grace is in the news again but no major impact so far. I had only one trade: BTC RUT April 1, 1100 puts at $0.10.

Grains held above last Friday's highs. I closed one more wheat Mar 490 puts. No other trade.

I spent time to update my trading cost in IB, mainly the monthly interests and fees. I am getting a more accurate cost of doing business. I spent $2000 in interests and  $1065 in various fees in IB. I need to do better in generating profit.

Weekly Review 3-21-15

I only started to work on Tuesday afternoon after dropping off my guests to the airport from Yunnan. The market reaction to the FOMC announcement was very positive despite the word "patient" on raising interest rate was eliminated. Friday was the monthly option expiration. My P/L was up $2K without any losing position.

For the week most of my entries were in bear calls which may be a potential risk if the market continues grind up. Keep in mind my losses came from bear call side most of the time. My task for next week should be refrain from selling bear calls. I paid attention to chart setups in determine which market to trade. RUT made new highs and was at top of the BB on weekly and daily. I sold more calls in this front. SPX/ES hasn't made new high so I am waiting for more upside. My first round of selling calls in SPX on Fed day was too early and emotional driven. I made a note on that day's review.

Grains recovered from recent contract lows. My letting decay plan has worked. I will continue to manage my risk and reduce my presence in this front. I will stop trading soybean once I am out of my current positions.  

Quad Witching Friday 3-20-15

My plan:

Indices futures popped up with European market. It's going to be a gap up open around Fed day's VPOC. Price actions could be unpredictable on this quad witching day. I may sell options both ways on their edge.

Grains are moving up. I may add small positions in corn and wheat for recovery contracts.

My execution:

No wild price swings in indices today. It was a trending day until a small pull back before closing. I didn't have any chance to sell puts. I sold three RUT April call spread as it reached top of BB on weekly & daily. No SPX/ES trades were filled today. It may have more to go.

Corn and wheat broke out to the upside. Soybean also tried to move up. I closed one wheat bull put of  475.

I will review this week's activity tomorrow.  

Back in the Game 3-19-15

It's the day after FOMC and before options expiration Friday. I should be fully engaged and disciplined in this 2nd day of back in the game.

My plan:

ES retraced slightly overnight. It's within the current HVA of 2075-2110. My plan is to sell put on any meaningful pull back. I may consider selling RUT calls when it reaches top of BB weekly.

Grains mostly held yesterday's gains overnight. I will look for any retest of break out area to see if it will hold.

My execution:

ES pulled back to 2976, the edge of CHVA. There wasn't enough vol during the 15 points p/b. My ES/SPX bull puts orders were touched several times but not filled. My bad habit of moving the price is still persist. It's frustrating to see the orders slipped away and caused by me. Tomorrow is the quadruple witch options expiration day. We may see more erratic price movement, especially before noon. I will try to make some sales if it happens.

Grains tested their break out area and held so far. I added a bull put of June 450 for recovery. There is not much for me to do but wait for time decays.

FOMC 3-18-15

I am back to the market after a week of accompanying Yinmore visitors. I felt a little bite rusty.

My execution:

I broke my rule of not trading in the first hour after FOMC announcement. I didn't stay on the sideline long enough after hearing the drop of "patient". I thought the Pop and Drop pattern would reoccur. Traded in my believes rather than the price action. I sold 5 different bear calls across my accounts. I will manage my risk if SPX/ES grind up to stay on new highs. One thing I did right was not selling RUT bear calls since it made all time high again.

Grains popped higher as US $ fall after the FOMC. No trade in this front. My wheat positions are still dragging.

Get A Pull Back?

My plan:

Indices futures site at yesterday's low after unemployment claims higher than expected and CPI tilted up 0.2% last month. I expect a pull back to 2097 from current 2109 if a push up attempt to 2114.75 is failed. Hypo 2 it a new high of 2120. My plan is to sell FOTM/Date puts base on Karen's set up.

Corn and soybean made attempts to move up. Wheat is still sitting at lows. I may try to sell couple calls in corn with free margin. My main plan is still reduce risk and size.

Jobs Report 3-6-15

My plan:

The Feb job creation came at 295K vs 240 K expected. The blow out number made a sell off reaction. ES lost about 15 points from overnight high before open. ES has a low target of 2086 and 82 for today. We may see a real sell off if 2082 doesn't hold. It could be range bounded again today. I will use the short term opportunity to sell puts and put spreads in ES/SPX and RUT.

Grains pressured by US dollar again. I need to watch corn now in addition of wheat. I have only bull puts left in corn now.

My execution:

Boy, they really pushed the market down. My lower target was broken by lunch time. ES/SPX lost 1.4% and closed into the prior balance area. I made a total of 10 trades across 4 different accounts with my first bull put credit spread in Fidelity IRA account. It appears I am over traded and a little too aggressive, especially in the morning. My plan was a range day. Overall, the daily and weekly uptrend is still in place although it appears there are rooms for the down side.

USD pushed higher and put more pressure on commodities. Grains made new lows but recovered some at closing. I only had one wheat May 680 bear call closed for profit.

A New Week 3-9-15

My plan:

Indices futures recovered slightly and stayed in last Friday's range overnight. ES stopped at the top of the next HVA. It appears ES/SPX may move back to the prior balance area or auctioning the LVA of 2066-2090. After Friday's sell off, the sellers may not done yet although the uptrend is still intact. I will try to sell bear calls on any decent pull backs to maintain my call/put ratio. I am working on travel arrangements for Yinmore visitors this week. My trading activities will be limited. My first job is watching my risk.

Grains moved up overnight. This wave of selling may be over. I will continue to reduce size and risk when possible.

Selling Resumes 3-10-15

My plan:

Indices futures broke last Friday's low overnight following Asian and European negative markets. ES/SPX are back into CHVA and at top previous balance area. Fib 50RT around 2050 would be next target. We may look at Fib 62 around 2030 in next few days. Of course, market could turn around any time as the over all up trend is live and well. My plan is not to add any positions this morning and watch how the market does. Since I will be out from Thursday until next Tuesday it's wise to stay light and manage my current positions.

Grains are down slightly but in range overall. It's awaiting for USDA WASDE and Crop Production at 12 noon. I am still in the holding mode. My main risk is in wheat but still manageable unless it crashes and hit stop limit.

My execution:

ES/SPX gaped down and couldn't pull back to close it. Turn around Tuesday didn't happen, rather sold off before closing. I didn't follow my plan of not adding positions. I put on several SPX and RUT put spreads. SPX was down 1.64% and filled me at 1850, 1830 and 1820 for April 2, 3 respectively in Fidelity and IB accounts. It looks like the down turn is not over yet since ES/SPX closed at low of the day.

USDA WESDE Report boosted the prices of the major grains. Wheat is back above $5.00. I get some room to breath.

Weekly Review 3-8-15

It was a quiet week until Friday's job report came out. I was bored to death before. Friday's 1.4% down in SPX/ES was perhaps the largest down day in a month. It may be a beginning of a pull back until Fed FOMC by mid of this month.

I was much less active for the week since most of indices were range bound. It was profitable of $1.2K. I made another mistake of buying IWM instead of selling it in personal IB. I was able to exit it with b/e next morning. I over traded yesterday with 8 trades on the first down day. My formulated approach was selling far OTM first at beginning of a pull back, then sell near term when selling intensifying or near exhausting. My unconscious decision of selling near term contracts perhaps was affected by lack of available margin. I still have too much margin tied up in wheat and soybean. Grains continued down trend movement made me unable to do much with it. Wheat positions are still over 15K underwater.

The recovery process has been slow but steady. Must be more patient and avoid big risk. I am $10K positive by the week end from $20K down at last year's end. However, the cash balance is not much better which still puzzles me. I will site down to figure it out after the guests from Yunnan leaves.

I must take it slowly next. Volatility may be increasing. I should increase my available margins by closing some profitable positions first. Be aware of my own emotions when the market is hot and thinking of bigger pictures.

Awaiting for Job Report 3-5-15

I missed the morning plan again. I lost 3.5 out of 4 paper trades. Planing will give me a clear head and map to follow.

ES/SPX traded in a less than 10 point range with slightly up skew. A IHS is forming. All eyes are on job report tomorrow. We should see some vol in the morning.

Grains continued to bleed. Wheat made a new contract low of 481. Corn is the only one recovered from early loss and still hold in the HVA.

Day 2 of Pull Back 3-4-15

Better do it late than not doing it.

My plan:

Indices moved lower overnight and continued to sell off after open. ES/SPX retested Feb 21 break out area. It's trying to push back to yesterday's low at 1pm similar to yesterday's pattern. I tried to sell indices puts without much luck.

Grains are down cross the board. Corn and wheat stayed in yesterday's range so far. Soybean is having another leg down. I will try to close some calls on wheat as it's below $5 again.

My execution:

ES/SPX retested Feb break out area of 2085 bounced. It tried to moved back to yesterday's range but couldn't hold it at closing. So far a lower low and lower high is in place for daily chart. The lines in the sand are 2106 up and 2080 below. Vol is still low. I only had ES 1720 filled today. Luckily the IWM mistake buying instead of selling was corrected today.

Grains stayed low. Soybean had another leg down and it's below $10.00 mark now. Wheat retested the trend line and the edge of HVA held so far. There may be another leg down if the bigger HS plays out. Wheat is my main concern now. I am light in corn and soybean.

A Little More Vols 3-3-15

I missed morning planning again. I got up late, the chat room was down as well.

Indices moved lower in the morning session, ES/SPX then moved back to their HVA of 2103. So we could go either direction tomorrow and the day after. Volatility increased some today. I sold VIX 23 and 24 with low margin requirement. Also sold 8 of IWM in Etrade. All of my bull puts spreads didn't get fill. There is still not enough fear in the market.

Corn and wheat tested their shoulder lines and edge of HVA then bounced. They may hold the pattern for now. I didn't have any trade there.

New Theme on Monday?

I missed morning planning again. I worked on tax reporting late last night.

Indices pushed toward new highs again. ES/SPX reversed last Friday's down turn right off the gate. ES ended above the highs of last Thursday and Friday. NQ and TF set new highs and leading the pack. ES may follow in next few days in one way or another. No orders were filled today.

Grains gave up all last Friday's gains. Corn and wheat are right back at the shoulders of IHS. Let's see if they would hold tomorrow. No trade in this front either.