It was a less eventful week. Indices stayed range bounded with some news from Greece driven the market a little wild. It was an all winners' week again. My profit was less than $800.00 partially due to the low vol for the last three month and my absence in later March. The low volatile environment could change at any time. The bigger ranges of the last few days may be a indication. I will stay with my rules of engagement. I shall study the possibility of stop trading if the VIX is above 30.
The rally of wheat and corn were short lived. I wasn't active in this front at all. I missed the change to roll over my June wheat puts. The main reason is lack of a firm plan.
Friday, May 29, 2015
In Wedge 5-29-15
My plan:
Indices future stayed in range. ES formed a wedge in CLVA between 2112 and 2123. It's in a compression mode and will break out of it one way or another. In this uptrend and the double top week high, it's likely to test up again. RUT is point up on 4 hrs and daily B band. My plan is to sell puts on any weakness.
Corn moved up few tick above yesterday's high overnight. Wheat may have more to the down side. I don't have much to do here.
My execution:
Indices pushed down right after open instead up or chop in my hypotheses. ES closed right on top of the CHVN. I sold another set of 100P/1wk scalp with a mistake of forgetting (-) sign again. Luckily it was only 3 cars with $20 credit each. I added 3 more at $35 each to averaging it up. I sold couple of RUT July 2 and 3 put spreads but no SPX filled.
Wheat broke down with the bear flag pattern. It may retest early May's low on the edge of CHVA. Corn was under pressure too. I didn't enter any trades in grains today.
Indices future stayed in range. ES formed a wedge in CLVA between 2112 and 2123. It's in a compression mode and will break out of it one way or another. In this uptrend and the double top week high, it's likely to test up again. RUT is point up on 4 hrs and daily B band. My plan is to sell puts on any weakness.
Corn moved up few tick above yesterday's high overnight. Wheat may have more to the down side. I don't have much to do here.
My execution:
Indices pushed down right after open instead up or chop in my hypotheses. ES closed right on top of the CHVN. I sold another set of 100P/1wk scalp with a mistake of forgetting (-) sign again. Luckily it was only 3 cars with $20 credit each. I added 3 more at $35 each to averaging it up. I sold couple of RUT July 2 and 3 put spreads but no SPX filled.
Wheat broke down with the bear flag pattern. It may retest early May's low on the edge of CHVA. Corn was under pressure too. I didn't enter any trades in grains today.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
Choppy For Now? 5-28-15
My plan:
Indices held up overnight. ES stocked at the LVA of 2112-2123 range. We could see it chop around this area or push up to challenge the double tops of 2132 on Greek or other news. My plan is to sell puts on pull back to 2112 area for ES/SPX. RUT is in a similar pattern of filling in CLVA pattern. The range is 1243 to 1251. RUT is likely to move into its HVA and CPOC of 1256 area. I will sell put spread on pull back into 1250 area.
Wheat and corn held in yesterday's range. They are in the lower parts of their current CHVA. I missed the opportunity to rollover my wheat puts when wheat was trading around 5.2-5.3. I plan to wait out this pull back.
My execution:
It was an inside day for indices. SPX and RUT filled in their CLVA as expected. But the closings were strong near high of the day. I sold a SPX June 4 1920 put to form a strangle. Also sold a June 1 SPX V scalp on 100 P/1 wk.
Wheat is still in a bear flag. It may have one more leg down at least. Corn tried to recover at the low of CHVA of 3.48. Both of them had a double bottom. Let's see if they will hold by tomorrow.
Indices held up overnight. ES stocked at the LVA of 2112-2123 range. We could see it chop around this area or push up to challenge the double tops of 2132 on Greek or other news. My plan is to sell puts on pull back to 2112 area for ES/SPX. RUT is in a similar pattern of filling in CLVA pattern. The range is 1243 to 1251. RUT is likely to move into its HVA and CPOC of 1256 area. I will sell put spread on pull back into 1250 area.
Wheat and corn held in yesterday's range. They are in the lower parts of their current CHVA. I missed the opportunity to rollover my wheat puts when wheat was trading around 5.2-5.3. I plan to wait out this pull back.
My execution:
It was an inside day for indices. SPX and RUT filled in their CLVA as expected. But the closings were strong near high of the day. I sold a SPX June 4 1920 put to form a strangle. Also sold a June 1 SPX V scalp on 100 P/1 wk.
Wheat is still in a bear flag. It may have one more leg down at least. Corn tried to recover at the low of CHVA of 3.48. Both of them had a double bottom. Let's see if they will hold by tomorrow.
Launch Pad 5-27-15
My plan:
It's better be later than never.
Greece is in news again. It's a good news this time. It's getting close to an agreement with its creditors. Futures started pushing up before open. I will sell calls on this pop up but would not chase it. ES/SPX may move up to fill in CLVA of 2123 to 2108. RUT has a CLVA of 1243 to 1252.
Grains moved lower overnight on poor export report from yesterday and higher US dollar. I will stay away from adding bull puts.
My execution:
Indices popped up 1% on possible Greece debt deal. ES/SPX and RUT moved back to the bottom of CHVA. I sold some July call spread and naked ones. My hypotheses of launch pad from low of yesterday played out. We may see a new break up from here if SPX/ES double top get blown out.
Grains continued to slid. I didn't have time to analyze it.
It's better be later than never.
Greece is in news again. It's a good news this time. It's getting close to an agreement with its creditors. Futures started pushing up before open. I will sell calls on this pop up but would not chase it. ES/SPX may move up to fill in CLVA of 2123 to 2108. RUT has a CLVA of 1243 to 1252.
Grains moved lower overnight on poor export report from yesterday and higher US dollar. I will stay away from adding bull puts.
My execution:
Indices popped up 1% on possible Greece debt deal. ES/SPX and RUT moved back to the bottom of CHVA. I sold some July call spread and naked ones. My hypotheses of launch pad from low of yesterday played out. We may see a new break up from here if SPX/ES double top get blown out.
Grains continued to slid. I didn't have time to analyze it.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
The Wind Shifting 5-26-15
My plan:
I missed this morning's writing and Trader Bite on the first day after Memorial long weekend. My bias was down based on last Friday's closing. I thought about to buy VIX ETF to hedge a possible down turn. But I didn't form a entry plan until VIX was up 12%. In hindsight I should have place an entry when ES overnight was broken. initially.
My execution:
It was a 25 point range day for ES and SPX. ES is back to previous balance area of below 2112. Would ES move further down or launch from her after closing Mar 14's gap at 2096? I think bulls will make an attempt to bounce from here as the scene of crime is retested baring from overnight European news, especially Greece. RUT also fall back to the last CHVA of 1248-1229. I sold one RUT July 3, 1070 puts and an ES July 1, 1880 puts. I am restrained on selling naked puts due to higher margin requirement. None of my put credit spreads were filled. I didn't chase it as I know I may have better shot if the market goes down further. I noticed that I wasn't feeling anxious to get filled.
Grains fall again after last Friday's sell off. Corn and wheat are both back into down channel again. I will have to evaluate my plan on wheat again tomorrow.
I missed this morning's writing and Trader Bite on the first day after Memorial long weekend. My bias was down based on last Friday's closing. I thought about to buy VIX ETF to hedge a possible down turn. But I didn't form a entry plan until VIX was up 12%. In hindsight I should have place an entry when ES overnight was broken. initially.
My execution:
It was a 25 point range day for ES and SPX. ES is back to previous balance area of below 2112. Would ES move further down or launch from her after closing Mar 14's gap at 2096? I think bulls will make an attempt to bounce from here as the scene of crime is retested baring from overnight European news, especially Greece. RUT also fall back to the last CHVA of 1248-1229. I sold one RUT July 3, 1070 puts and an ES July 1, 1880 puts. I am restrained on selling naked puts due to higher margin requirement. None of my put credit spreads were filled. I didn't chase it as I know I may have better shot if the market goes down further. I noticed that I wasn't feeling anxious to get filled.
Grains fall again after last Friday's sell off. Corn and wheat are both back into down channel again. I will have to evaluate my plan on wheat again tomorrow.
Saturday, May 23, 2015
Weekly Review 5-23-15
Another profitable week. My total realized profit is $3987 largely from wheat recovery. Indices options only generated $800 for the week. The low vol environment continued. There were not many selling opportunities. ES/SPX made new highs but stayed in a small range. So far sale in May and go away hasn't happened. It didn't happen last year as far as I remember.
There have been many discussions regarding Karen's trading style, especially the risk part of it. Some of them are insightful. Such discussions help me to learn more different selling styles and considerations. I am more aware of the risk and became more conservative now.
Wheat finally popped above $5 which helped me to exit most of my May positions with a profit. I have stayed out of corn due to the down trend of seasonal.
There have been many discussions regarding Karen's trading style, especially the risk part of it. Some of them are insightful. Such discussions help me to learn more different selling styles and considerations. I am more aware of the risk and became more conservative now.
Wheat finally popped above $5 which helped me to exit most of my May positions with a profit. I have stayed out of corn due to the down trend of seasonal.
Friday, May 22, 2015
Memorial Day Weekend 5-22-15
My plan:
It was a quiet overnight session until CPI number came out in line with expectation of 0.1%. ES is down 6 points after the news. Chairman Yellen is scheduled to speak this afternoon around 2pm. Market eyes on it. We may see a little more volatility today than expected slow Friday before a long weekend. I see ES levels at 2128, 31 above and 2120, 2118 below today. RUT is in 4hr squeeze mode. It may break out either way but likely to the upside. I will try to sell puts on weakness and won't sell heavily on push up.
Wheat and corn are in range overnight. I will double check if any of my expiring positions are in danger today. Let the rest of them decay over the long weekend.
My execution:
It was a choppy session for indices. ES/SPX and RUT are still holding current balance area. VIX is at low 12 now. I put in some put spreads and no fill at all. I only have a ES July 3 1850 filled after hour. We could either pop or drop next week at current compressed levels.
Grains were under pressure as US dollar popped today. No trade in this front.
It was a quiet overnight session until CPI number came out in line with expectation of 0.1%. ES is down 6 points after the news. Chairman Yellen is scheduled to speak this afternoon around 2pm. Market eyes on it. We may see a little more volatility today than expected slow Friday before a long weekend. I see ES levels at 2128, 31 above and 2120, 2118 below today. RUT is in 4hr squeeze mode. It may break out either way but likely to the upside. I will try to sell puts on weakness and won't sell heavily on push up.
Wheat and corn are in range overnight. I will double check if any of my expiring positions are in danger today. Let the rest of them decay over the long weekend.
My execution:
It was a choppy session for indices. ES/SPX and RUT are still holding current balance area. VIX is at low 12 now. I put in some put spreads and no fill at all. I only have a ES July 3 1850 filled after hour. We could either pop or drop next week at current compressed levels.
Grains were under pressure as US dollar popped today. No trade in this front.
Thursday, May 21, 2015
Holding On 5-21-15
I missed to write the plan after attending Trade Bite.
I was expecting a pull back based on yesterday's closing and overnight price actions around 2015-19 area.
After opening ES/SPX pushed up and didn't have any meaningful pull back until reached yesterday's high. In the context ES/SPX held current balance area. A break up is still in play unless ES drop below 2112. RUT held yesterday's gain as well. It firmly closed above Fib 62. It's formed a IHS or short term cup and handle. I couldn't sell any puts and don't want to add any calls.
Wheat moved up and closed around 5.20. I may be able to get out of my June 550 without much damage if the trend continues. I will double check my positions of current month just in case of the expiration day.
I was expecting a pull back based on yesterday's closing and overnight price actions around 2015-19 area.
After opening ES/SPX pushed up and didn't have any meaningful pull back until reached yesterday's high. In the context ES/SPX held current balance area. A break up is still in play unless ES drop below 2112. RUT held yesterday's gain as well. It firmly closed above Fib 62. It's formed a IHS or short term cup and handle. I couldn't sell any puts and don't want to add any calls.
Wheat moved up and closed around 5.20. I may be able to get out of my June 550 without much damage if the trend continues. I will double check my positions of current month just in case of the expiration day.
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Making A New Trading Range? 5-20-15
My plan:
Indices futures held in yesterday's range overnight. It's so far traded above previous balance area. There will be a 50 point trading range above if ES/SPX would establish a new balanced area. Market is waiting for FOMC Minute at 2pm. It's not as big of an event as FOMC but it still could move the market if there is any surprises. I will sell puts on any weakness before or after the release. I will be very cautious about entering calls.
Grains are moving lower slightly. I will try to close my May positions in wheat no later than tomorrow just in case we get pined at 5 or 4.9 again.
My execution:
ES/SPX crossed yesterday's after FOMC minutes release, then got slowly pushed down to yesterday's low before closing. It looks like the high was rejected firmly despite the June rate hike is out of question. ES breached today's low in evening session. We may see a move down in the next two days depending on the unemployment number and possible news from Greece. None of my puts sell orders got filled. My ES May 5 1850 was closed.
Wheat showed some strength. Corn dropped further. I closed my May wheat 490, 480 puts today. My 440 puts and 650, 660 calls are safe for now unless something drastically changes in the next two days. Wheat is trading at 510 range.
Indices futures held in yesterday's range overnight. It's so far traded above previous balance area. There will be a 50 point trading range above if ES/SPX would establish a new balanced area. Market is waiting for FOMC Minute at 2pm. It's not as big of an event as FOMC but it still could move the market if there is any surprises. I will sell puts on any weakness before or after the release. I will be very cautious about entering calls.
Grains are moving lower slightly. I will try to close my May positions in wheat no later than tomorrow just in case we get pined at 5 or 4.9 again.
My execution:
ES/SPX crossed yesterday's after FOMC minutes release, then got slowly pushed down to yesterday's low before closing. It looks like the high was rejected firmly despite the June rate hike is out of question. ES breached today's low in evening session. We may see a move down in the next two days depending on the unemployment number and possible news from Greece. None of my puts sell orders got filled. My ES May 5 1850 was closed.
Wheat showed some strength. Corn dropped further. I closed my May wheat 490, 480 puts today. My 440 puts and 650, 660 calls are safe for now unless something drastically changes in the next two days. Wheat is trading at 510 range.
The Party Goes On
My plan:
Apparently the pop to new highs of yesterday was the news of Greece again. Greece announced it may reach a debt restructuring deal within a week. Overnight Asian markets popped up and followed by European market. Shanghai index was up 3% and DAX is up 1.8% at this writing. US indices futures reached 2134 after European open but sold off on a good housing start number with concern of Fed rate hike earlier than expected. My plan for today is to sell put on pull back in SPX/ES and RUT. I will hold off of selling SPX calls since I had sold some yesterday.
Grains gave back yesterday's gains overnight. Wheat is supported with low temperature news. I will work on exit my 2 wheat puts of May. Corn dropped further and I will not sell puts for now since the seasonal lows are in August and October. The raise of dollar is putting pressures on grains.
My execution:
It was a choppy session for SPX/ES. I couldn't tell which way the market is leaning toward. There was a weak low close. WE may see market explore both side before FOMC Minutes tomorrow. I only sold one ES June 5, 1900.
Grains pull back further today. My exit orders didn't get filled. I will try it again tomorrow.
Apparently the pop to new highs of yesterday was the news of Greece again. Greece announced it may reach a debt restructuring deal within a week. Overnight Asian markets popped up and followed by European market. Shanghai index was up 3% and DAX is up 1.8% at this writing. US indices futures reached 2134 after European open but sold off on a good housing start number with concern of Fed rate hike earlier than expected. My plan for today is to sell put on pull back in SPX/ES and RUT. I will hold off of selling SPX calls since I had sold some yesterday.
Grains gave back yesterday's gains overnight. Wheat is supported with low temperature news. I will work on exit my 2 wheat puts of May. Corn dropped further and I will not sell puts for now since the seasonal lows are in August and October. The raise of dollar is putting pressures on grains.
My execution:
It was a choppy session for SPX/ES. I couldn't tell which way the market is leaning toward. There was a weak low close. WE may see market explore both side before FOMC Minutes tomorrow. I only sold one ES June 5, 1900.
Grains pull back further today. My exit orders didn't get filled. I will try it again tomorrow.
Monday, May 18, 2015
Monday After All Time High
My plan:
ES hit its all time high of 2120.5 briefly last Friday. It opened on Sunday night within range and stayed in last Friday's range despite Asia and European markets were down. ES/SPX are still in up trend and a new balance area. Would we see a sell off after a new high like many times last year and this year? We may not see a strong break out to the upside giving the Memorial weekend is coming. I will continue to sell puts base on my rules. My ES targets are 2123.5 to the upside and 2123, 2109 to the down side. It may be a choppy day over all.
Corn and wheat held up well overnight. Wheat is firmly above $5 marker. My plan is to rollover or close my wheat positions for this month. I may sell corn calls on pops.
My execution:
ES/SPX made new highs and closed firmly up to my surprise. I have 6 different call spreads filled in RUT and SPX today. Most of them are iron condors. I feel that I am overtreded today. However I am still within my risk perimeters. We will have FOMC minutes, jobless report and Memorial weekend in this week. I would think market may wait these events to pass. But market can do whatever it wants and against common logic.
Grains gave up most gains today at closing. I have no order filled. I will be aggressively close my wheat positions of May in the next couple of days.
ES hit its all time high of 2120.5 briefly last Friday. It opened on Sunday night within range and stayed in last Friday's range despite Asia and European markets were down. ES/SPX are still in up trend and a new balance area. Would we see a sell off after a new high like many times last year and this year? We may not see a strong break out to the upside giving the Memorial weekend is coming. I will continue to sell puts base on my rules. My ES targets are 2123.5 to the upside and 2123, 2109 to the down side. It may be a choppy day over all.
Corn and wheat held up well overnight. Wheat is firmly above $5 marker. My plan is to rollover or close my wheat positions for this month. I may sell corn calls on pops.
My execution:
ES/SPX made new highs and closed firmly up to my surprise. I have 6 different call spreads filled in RUT and SPX today. Most of them are iron condors. I feel that I am overtreded today. However I am still within my risk perimeters. We will have FOMC minutes, jobless report and Memorial weekend in this week. I would think market may wait these events to pass. But market can do whatever it wants and against common logic.
Grains gave up most gains today at closing. I have no order filled. I will be aggressively close my wheat positions of May in the next couple of days.
Saturday, May 16, 2015
Weekly Review 5-15-15
It was a none event week in equity front. Indices stayed in a range but closed near new highs. We may see a break up or down soon. I didn't have many positions for this monthly options expiration. All of my positions were closed before Friday. The total profit is only $986 out of six positions. I started to increase my position sizes this week since my margin got loosen up from grains. I have been following my rules and stayed calm. It may be partially due to low volatility so emotions were low too.
Grains started to show some strength after USDA report on Monday. I need to take advantage of short covering rally to unwind some of my bull puts. The info from WASDE is bearish and seasonal trend is down until August.
Grains started to show some strength after USDA report on Monday. I need to take advantage of short covering rally to unwind some of my bull puts. The info from WASDE is bearish and seasonal trend is down until August.
Friday, May 15, 2015
New High Insight 5-15-15
My Plan:
Indices futures have held up overnight with little movement. ES is above it's CHVA high of 2013. TF is struggling at Fib 50-62.8 RT area. I will stay away from selling SPX calls unless there is a clear rejection to the new high. I will sell puts for SPX when and if there is a drop down. I plan to fill June put and call spots for strangles and iron condors.
I will rollover more wheat when I get a chance.
My execution:
Indices traded in a small range today. ES had a 7 point range and closed near day's high. I closed couple RUTs to release margin and reduce fees. No new trade for the small range on the expiration day of the month.
Corn and wheat retraced some from yesterday's wild push. I had to deal with the dead battery issue of my car. I didn't get a chance to set up my rollover of wheat. However, I don't have any May wheat position under water for now. I just let them decay over the weekend for now.
Indices futures have held up overnight with little movement. ES is above it's CHVA high of 2013. TF is struggling at Fib 50-62.8 RT area. I will stay away from selling SPX calls unless there is a clear rejection to the new high. I will sell puts for SPX when and if there is a drop down. I plan to fill June put and call spots for strangles and iron condors.
I will rollover more wheat when I get a chance.
My execution:
Indices traded in a small range today. ES had a 7 point range and closed near day's high. I closed couple RUTs to release margin and reduce fees. No new trade for the small range on the expiration day of the month.
Corn and wheat retraced some from yesterday's wild push. I had to deal with the dead battery issue of my car. I didn't get a chance to set up my rollover of wheat. However, I don't have any May wheat position under water for now. I just let them decay over the weekend for now.
Thursday, May 14, 2015
Bulls Keep Pushing 5-14-15
My plan:
Indices futures traded higher overnight on European market push up. ES breached yesterday's high of 2106.5. It's likely to test 2112 area today with another attempt to make a new high. VIX futures is ready to break to a new low. RUT tested Fib 38 from below on weekly. Its next target is Fib 50 RT at 1250 area. I will try to sell RUT calls and stay away from ES/SPX calls until it's clear from break up or break down.
Wheat and corn pushed to USDA report highs overnight. I may sell corn calls and rollover wheat puts.
My execution:
ES/SPX broke recent high of 2119 and closed at above it. It appears to ready to challenge their all time high of 2126 area. Are we going to see a double top again or a real break out. The daily bar looks pretty strong. I didn't sell any ES/SPX calls today. I want to see if we have a real break out or not. I sold couple of RUT June bear calls which are only at 50% rt of recent drops.
Grains staged a very impressive break out on short covering. Wheat went up 6%. My rollover of 510 put was filled before 4% RT. Wheat is now firmly above $5 marker. I get some breath room to deal with my bull puts now. I will close and roll more wheat positions tomorrow and early next week. I sold my first corn bear call in about a month based on seasonal.
Indices futures traded higher overnight on European market push up. ES breached yesterday's high of 2106.5. It's likely to test 2112 area today with another attempt to make a new high. VIX futures is ready to break to a new low. RUT tested Fib 38 from below on weekly. Its next target is Fib 50 RT at 1250 area. I will try to sell RUT calls and stay away from ES/SPX calls until it's clear from break up or break down.
Wheat and corn pushed to USDA report highs overnight. I may sell corn calls and rollover wheat puts.
My execution:
ES/SPX broke recent high of 2119 and closed at above it. It appears to ready to challenge their all time high of 2126 area. Are we going to see a double top again or a real break out. The daily bar looks pretty strong. I didn't sell any ES/SPX calls today. I want to see if we have a real break out or not. I sold couple of RUT June bear calls which are only at 50% rt of recent drops.
Grains staged a very impressive break out on short covering. Wheat went up 6%. My rollover of 510 put was filled before 4% RT. Wheat is now firmly above $5 marker. I get some breath room to deal with my bull puts now. I will close and roll more wheat positions tomorrow and early next week. I sold my first corn bear call in about a month based on seasonal.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Building A Base 5-13-15
My plan:
Indices futures are holding at upper side of yesterday's profile. ES has a 13 points range from 2093-2106. ES tested the seen of crime from NFP of Friday. It got rejected. ES is likely to push up from here. The upper side target for today is 2113 if the overnight high is broken. 2095 is CVPOC and 2085-82 is my lower target. I will sell puts if we break overnight low.
Wheat and corn stayed in yesterday's range overnight. The price actions of next few day's would tell me the direction of the grains. The figures from yesterday's WASDE are bearish. But you never know how market will interpret these numbers. I will try to roll wheat May 500 puts if the wheat pushes up again. I would consider to sell corn calls between 7-9 with a down seasonal trend.
My execution:
ES broke overnight high in the first hr of trading but couldn't hold above it. It ended broken overnight low in the afternoon. It's rare that both sides of overnight got breached. It was a choppy day overall. My contract quota got increased at S-5 from 6-10. It gives me a little more flexibility to trade ES in Karen's style. I sold one June 4 1850 put today. Also sold 6 RUT June 4 1080/60 bull spread. I looked at a wrong weekly prices so the fill was quick. It still consider as an error.
Corn and wheat shown some strength today. Both were sold off early but recovered most of it before closing. I didn't spent much time on grains today. I will try it tomorrow.
Indices futures are holding at upper side of yesterday's profile. ES has a 13 points range from 2093-2106. ES tested the seen of crime from NFP of Friday. It got rejected. ES is likely to push up from here. The upper side target for today is 2113 if the overnight high is broken. 2095 is CVPOC and 2085-82 is my lower target. I will sell puts if we break overnight low.
Wheat and corn stayed in yesterday's range overnight. The price actions of next few day's would tell me the direction of the grains. The figures from yesterday's WASDE are bearish. But you never know how market will interpret these numbers. I will try to roll wheat May 500 puts if the wheat pushes up again. I would consider to sell corn calls between 7-9 with a down seasonal trend.
My execution:
ES broke overnight high in the first hr of trading but couldn't hold above it. It ended broken overnight low in the afternoon. It's rare that both sides of overnight got breached. It was a choppy day overall. My contract quota got increased at S-5 from 6-10. It gives me a little more flexibility to trade ES in Karen's style. I sold one June 4 1850 put today. Also sold 6 RUT June 4 1080/60 bull spread. I looked at a wrong weekly prices so the fill was quick. It still consider as an error.
Corn and wheat shown some strength today. Both were sold off early but recovered most of it before closing. I didn't spent much time on grains today. I will try it tomorrow.
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
Overnight Down 5-12-15
My plan:
Indices futures dropped below Friday's range and retested the break out point. European markets are down across board. ES may test 2069-67 CLVN and 2100-02 above. RUT may have a low of 1216-13 and 1235 above after the rejection of Fib50 p/b. My plan is to release margin first by close positions with 80% profit. Then sell new puts but be patient. This could be the day one of a multi-day pull back.
Grains have a little changed a head of WASDE today. I will place an rollover order for May wheat 510 only in effect before the report release.
My execution:
Equities opened under the pressure of European markets. But they never tested overnight low of ES. After the first attempt of pushing down buyers stepped in to push ES/SPX back to CHVA of 2090s. ES didn't come close to my expected 2070 area. I didn't catch any of the down which lasted about the first 1.5 hr. It's OK I didn't catch in the morning session. It could have been a 20 points down day based on overnight action. Who knows.
I closed wheat May 510 bull puts before WASDE. Wheat and corn pushed up hard before and right after the report released. But the ending stock and production estimate were higher than trade estimated. Grains faded before closing. I will watch for the next two days to see if the lows could hold.
Indices futures dropped below Friday's range and retested the break out point. European markets are down across board. ES may test 2069-67 CLVN and 2100-02 above. RUT may have a low of 1216-13 and 1235 above after the rejection of Fib50 p/b. My plan is to release margin first by close positions with 80% profit. Then sell new puts but be patient. This could be the day one of a multi-day pull back.
Grains have a little changed a head of WASDE today. I will place an rollover order for May wheat 510 only in effect before the report release.
My execution:
Equities opened under the pressure of European markets. But they never tested overnight low of ES. After the first attempt of pushing down buyers stepped in to push ES/SPX back to CHVA of 2090s. ES didn't come close to my expected 2070 area. I didn't catch any of the down which lasted about the first 1.5 hr. It's OK I didn't catch in the morning session. It could have been a 20 points down day based on overnight action. Who knows.
I closed wheat May 510 bull puts before WASDE. Wheat and corn pushed up hard before and right after the report released. But the ending stock and production estimate were higher than trade estimated. Grains faded before closing. I will watch for the next two days to see if the lows could hold.
Monday, May 11, 2015
Monday Again 5-11-15
My plan:
Futures moved very little overnight but stayed near the top. ES/SPX are attempting another new record high. RUT is pulling back to Fib 50 from below on weekly. I will stay away from shorting SPX/ES. I may leg in short RUT by selling calls. I need to exit some puts to increase my margin. I will sell puts if ES come down to break overnight low. FT has it at 2095. I don't understand why my margin was reduced to 60K from Friday's 100K even I had more positions expired worthless.
Grains are pushing lower again. Corn and wheat are at lower end of their CHVA. Their bottoms from last week are not threatened. I will try to rollover my wheat of this moth again.
My execution:
ES/SPX tried to break up but didn't get much energy. They failed 0.5% at the end, but have not even revisited Friday's seen of crime. I sold a set of 8 SPX July 1, 1830 puts base on Karen's setup. Missed couple of RUT bear calls. Indices have stayed in this large top range for over 3 months now. We may see a rounded top if we can't break up from here.
Corn and wheat are still in bearish mode. They both try to move up but failed. My wheat May 510 rollover didn't get filled for the 2nd day. I will be more aggressive tomorrow. I failed to check the USDA report date. The WASDE is 12 PM tomorrow. I will set an order to try to get out May 510 put before 12pm.
Futures moved very little overnight but stayed near the top. ES/SPX are attempting another new record high. RUT is pulling back to Fib 50 from below on weekly. I will stay away from shorting SPX/ES. I may leg in short RUT by selling calls. I need to exit some puts to increase my margin. I will sell puts if ES come down to break overnight low. FT has it at 2095. I don't understand why my margin was reduced to 60K from Friday's 100K even I had more positions expired worthless.
Grains are pushing lower again. Corn and wheat are at lower end of their CHVA. Their bottoms from last week are not threatened. I will try to rollover my wheat of this moth again.
My execution:
ES/SPX tried to break up but didn't get much energy. They failed 0.5% at the end, but have not even revisited Friday's seen of crime. I sold a set of 8 SPX July 1, 1830 puts base on Karen's setup. Missed couple of RUT bear calls. Indices have stayed in this large top range for over 3 months now. We may see a rounded top if we can't break up from here.
Corn and wheat are still in bearish mode. They both try to move up but failed. My wheat May 510 rollover didn't get filled for the 2nd day. I will be more aggressive tomorrow. I failed to check the USDA report date. The WASDE is 12 PM tomorrow. I will set an order to try to get out May 510 put before 12pm.
Saturday, May 9, 2015
Weekly Review 5-9-15
It was another week without any threatened positions. My profit on indices was $1.5K. There were couple of down days in the mid of the week before the NFP report which gave me a good opportunity to sell some puts for June. On the pop up before NFP, I sold some calls to form strangles and iron condors for my June positions as well. My indices options started to extend to 40-56 days. I will observe and study the effects of how increased volatility will affect these Karen style positions. I made a mistake by looking at a price in wrong week and adjust my exit price from $5 to $10. It cost me $5 and emotional capital. A double check procedure and habit are needed.
Grains are still in the down trend but slowed down some what. I am out of corn positions. Wheat remains my biggest loss in holdings. I will continue to rollover and reverse my wheat positions next week. I didn't accomplish much last week.
Grains are still in the down trend but slowed down some what. I am out of corn positions. Wheat remains my biggest loss in holdings. I will continue to rollover and reverse my wheat positions next week. I didn't accomplish much last week.
Friday, May 8, 2015
NFP, Less is Better 5-8-15
My plan:
The NFP released at 8:30 indicated 223K jobs created v.s. 224K expected. Market took it as a good news as the economy is still growing unlike the poor GDP number pointed earlier. Market shoot up on the news. ES is at high end of the CHVA around 2103-06. I will wait to see if there is a break out above 2112. The all time highs for ES/SPX are 2119.75 and 2125.92 respectively. I should wait until a confirmation of break out or down before committing bigger positions. I may only add strangles or iron condors if we get chop around to take advantage of weekend decay.
Corn and wheat may come back to retest their break out area. I shall wait again to see if the retest will hold.
My execution:
Indices went up 1% or more on NFP. Even though none of them made a new high but SPX looks about to break up or get knocked down next week. I stayed away from selling SPX. I sold another set of RUT calls in Etrade to form another Iron condor for June 3. I closed couple of positions for next week in SPX and RUT.
Grains recovered some but no break out. No fill for me.
The NFP released at 8:30 indicated 223K jobs created v.s. 224K expected. Market took it as a good news as the economy is still growing unlike the poor GDP number pointed earlier. Market shoot up on the news. ES is at high end of the CHVA around 2103-06. I will wait to see if there is a break out above 2112. The all time highs for ES/SPX are 2119.75 and 2125.92 respectively. I should wait until a confirmation of break out or down before committing bigger positions. I may only add strangles or iron condors if we get chop around to take advantage of weekend decay.
Corn and wheat may come back to retest their break out area. I shall wait again to see if the retest will hold.
My execution:
Indices went up 1% or more on NFP. Even though none of them made a new high but SPX looks about to break up or get knocked down next week. I stayed away from selling SPX. I sold another set of RUT calls in Etrade to form another Iron condor for June 3. I closed couple of positions for next week in SPX and RUT.
Grains recovered some but no break out. No fill for me.
No Direction So Far 4-30-15
My plan:
It's quiet overnight. Yesterday's low was tested but rejected for ES. It's range bound in this small CHVA of 2089-2104 with a wedge which could go either way. I will sell either way break out as long as it's not news driven.
Grains held yesterday's gain. Wait and watch is still my plan.
For whatever the reasons I forgot to complete the execution section.
It's quiet overnight. Yesterday's low was tested but rejected for ES. It's range bound in this small CHVA of 2089-2104 with a wedge which could go either way. I will sell either way break out as long as it's not news driven.
Grains held yesterday's gain. Wait and watch is still my plan.
For whatever the reasons I forgot to complete the execution section.
Thursday, May 7, 2015
A Day Before NFP 5-7-15
My plan:
Futures bounced back from overnight low and stayed in yesterday's range. We may get a choppy day before tomorrow's NFP report. ES is still in current balance area. TF/RUT are at lower end of weekly balance area. I will trade only to strangles and iron condors today. I need to keep my powder dry for a possible volatile day tomorrow.
Grains held yesterday's gains overnight. I plan to rollover or reverse some of my May puts. I may also sell some corn puts since there is a decent low at 365 if I see premiums worth awhile.
My execution:
Indices pushed up most of the day with near 0.5% gains more or less. I followed my plan to sell some calls and call spreads forming some strangles and iron condors. If we get a blow up NFP report I will follow my plan to adjust my positions. I believe I have room to deal with either directions for now.
Corn and wheat gave back part of gains yesterday on a poor export report and gain of USD. My rollover order for wheat didn't get filled. I left it on for tomorrow. I will try to do more tomorrow if we get a pop.
Futures bounced back from overnight low and stayed in yesterday's range. We may get a choppy day before tomorrow's NFP report. ES is still in current balance area. TF/RUT are at lower end of weekly balance area. I will trade only to strangles and iron condors today. I need to keep my powder dry for a possible volatile day tomorrow.
Grains held yesterday's gains overnight. I plan to rollover or reverse some of my May puts. I may also sell some corn puts since there is a decent low at 365 if I see premiums worth awhile.
My execution:
Indices pushed up most of the day with near 0.5% gains more or less. I followed my plan to sell some calls and call spreads forming some strangles and iron condors. If we get a blow up NFP report I will follow my plan to adjust my positions. I believe I have room to deal with either directions for now.
Corn and wheat gave back part of gains yesterday on a poor export report and gain of USD. My rollover order for wheat didn't get filled. I left it on for tomorrow. I will try to do more tomorrow if we get a pop.
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Sell in May and Go Away? 5-6-15
I was out to UNC to pick up June for her summer break yesterday. We got back at 3 am. I missed yesterday's selling and didn't get up early enough to write today's plan.
My execution:
I was shooting off of my hip today. Tried to sell Karen's setup and make up iron condors on the puts side. I made most of June pairs in SPX. I also sold a June 5, ES 1780 and May VIX 26.00. Both of them are bit too early. We may chop in current balance area until Friday's job report.
Wheat and corn both popped up today on USD slide and short covering. I will try to rollover and reverse some of my June positions tomorrow if we get a continued push up.
My execution:
I was shooting off of my hip today. Tried to sell Karen's setup and make up iron condors on the puts side. I made most of June pairs in SPX. I also sold a June 5, ES 1780 and May VIX 26.00. Both of them are bit too early. We may chop in current balance area until Friday's job report.
Wheat and corn both popped up today on USD slide and short covering. I will try to rollover and reverse some of my June positions tomorrow if we get a continued push up.
Monday, May 4, 2015
Monday Trending 5-4-15
My plan:
Indices futures opened up on Sunday night. ES is above last Friday's high after European open. Asian and European market mostly higher. DAX is leading the gainers with 1.37% at the time of writing. ES appears ready to challenge the all time high of 2119.75 of April 26. My ranges for ES today are 2112 to 2118 above, 2010-2095 below. RUT/FT looks more bearish than ES. It broke balance area on daily and at low of weekly balance. I will sell puts in ES/SPX and calls for RUT. I need to follow my monthly review and plan. Give enough room for the down side when trading Karen's system, especially on RUT.
Corn and wheat are at lows of last Friday and CLVA. They are very bearish. They could explore lower and establish another balance area below. I may sell Sept wheat and corn put base on seasonal trends.
My execution:
ES pushed into my upper target area at high of 2115. It couldn't break up to a new high with lack of energy. RUT moved up to the edge of current CHVA. It may chop in 1210 to 1240 range to do some fillings. I sold one set of SPX June 3 2220/40 to fill my Etrade spot. closed couple of May 3 positions. It's a 10 point range for for ES. Feeling bored after the first hr of trading. I will be driving to UNC tomorrow and won't be able to trade. Let my current positions decay a little more.
Corn and wheat are still hanging on a cliff. I have no trade there.
Indices futures opened up on Sunday night. ES is above last Friday's high after European open. Asian and European market mostly higher. DAX is leading the gainers with 1.37% at the time of writing. ES appears ready to challenge the all time high of 2119.75 of April 26. My ranges for ES today are 2112 to 2118 above, 2010-2095 below. RUT/FT looks more bearish than ES. It broke balance area on daily and at low of weekly balance. I will sell puts in ES/SPX and calls for RUT. I need to follow my monthly review and plan. Give enough room for the down side when trading Karen's system, especially on RUT.
Corn and wheat are at lows of last Friday and CLVA. They are very bearish. They could explore lower and establish another balance area below. I may sell Sept wheat and corn put base on seasonal trends.
My execution:
ES pushed into my upper target area at high of 2115. It couldn't break up to a new high with lack of energy. RUT moved up to the edge of current CHVA. It may chop in 1210 to 1240 range to do some fillings. I sold one set of SPX June 3 2220/40 to fill my Etrade spot. closed couple of May 3 positions. It's a 10 point range for for ES. Feeling bored after the first hr of trading. I will be driving to UNC tomorrow and won't be able to trade. Let my current positions decay a little more.
Corn and wheat are still hanging on a cliff. I have no trade there.
Saturday, May 2, 2015
Monthly Review - April 15
The recovery continued in April. The profit for this month is $19.5K with $18K in business and $1.5K in personal accounts. There is about $10K from grains recovery. Realistically, the indices trading generated about $9K. There was no position adjustment needed in equity trading due to low volatility and range bound market movements.
Grains continued to slide on plenty supplies and good weather. I had to rollover some bull puts again. I was over managing and over trading it early this year. Now I am letting it run its course without fighting the trend. Am I too passive now? I have only wheat positions left and it's over 10K underwater for now.
Looking forward, the low vol environment has been over two month and may not stay long. Mr. Market tends to teach people a lesson when they are over confidence and feeling in control. I need to stick to my rules of engagement. On Karen style entry, making sure to use percentage of OTM. It's very likely to run a 10+% correction in 40-60 days time frame. The PITM would change drastically as vol increases.
I plan to increase my trading size in credit spread from current from current 4-6 to 8-10 in IB PM account as my current entry rules are conservative and margin is back to about 50% level. Of course the No 1 rule is still risk control. I will increase my size as market condition allows.
I need to decide if I want to move an IRA account to TOS in order to learn the platform. I would continue to learn other style of options selling to enhance my trading. There are people selling indices options 60-90 days out with good results. I should test such setups further.
Grains continued to slide on plenty supplies and good weather. I had to rollover some bull puts again. I was over managing and over trading it early this year. Now I am letting it run its course without fighting the trend. Am I too passive now? I have only wheat positions left and it's over 10K underwater for now.
Looking forward, the low vol environment has been over two month and may not stay long. Mr. Market tends to teach people a lesson when they are over confidence and feeling in control. I need to stick to my rules of engagement. On Karen style entry, making sure to use percentage of OTM. It's very likely to run a 10+% correction in 40-60 days time frame. The PITM would change drastically as vol increases.
I plan to increase my trading size in credit spread from current from current 4-6 to 8-10 in IB PM account as my current entry rules are conservative and margin is back to about 50% level. Of course the No 1 rule is still risk control. I will increase my size as market condition allows.
I need to decide if I want to move an IRA account to TOS in order to learn the platform. I would continue to learn other style of options selling to enhance my trading. There are people selling indices options 60-90 days out with good results. I should test such setups further.
Friday, May 1, 2015
Choppy Friday? 5-1-15
My plan:
Futures held the closing pull back overnight. It looks like no follow through selling. ES is still in the its CHVA. RUT is in the next CHVA below. I may take a break from selling more puts today if there is no further down push. May consider to sell some calls to balance my positions.
Wheat held the neck line of IHS so far. A HS has formed to make the pattern bearish again. Corn is in a bear flag shape. I may play corn bear calls if it pops.
My execution:
It was almost an revenge day for ES/SPX. They took back all the loses from yesterday and closed at high of the day. It looks like a clear deck for next leg up type of action. I sold couple of later June call spreads which may be pre mature. On the other hand RUT only got back 0.65% from 2% lose of yesterday. It may have more down side to go. I sold couple of calls which looks safe for now.
Grains went down again. I placed an order to sell wheat Sept 380 puts for 2nd time but still no fill. I am waiting for the trend to turn.
Futures held the closing pull back overnight. It looks like no follow through selling. ES is still in the its CHVA. RUT is in the next CHVA below. I may take a break from selling more puts today if there is no further down push. May consider to sell some calls to balance my positions.
Wheat held the neck line of IHS so far. A HS has formed to make the pattern bearish again. Corn is in a bear flag shape. I may play corn bear calls if it pops.
My execution:
It was almost an revenge day for ES/SPX. They took back all the loses from yesterday and closed at high of the day. It looks like a clear deck for next leg up type of action. I sold couple of later June call spreads which may be pre mature. On the other hand RUT only got back 0.65% from 2% lose of yesterday. It may have more down side to go. I sold couple of calls which looks safe for now.
Grains went down again. I placed an order to sell wheat Sept 380 puts for 2nd time but still no fill. I am waiting for the trend to turn.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)