Take a Break? 6-30-15

My plan:

Futures recovered 50% overnight after European open. There is a slight hope of last minute resolution for Greek crisis. It's still a news driven market. But market has moved in orderly auction. Today's target for ES: 2073 and 83 above, 2048 and 2027 below. My plan is to reduce or completely exit my scalping of 2020, 2015, 2010 in SPX in all of my accounts.

I will stay out of the grain market at least 1 hr after USDA's Acerage and Grain Stock report at 12 PM.

My execution:

Indices started a similar pattern of yesterday except it didn't sell off in the last hour. ES made a double bottom from yesterday. It still looks a weak low to me. Of course it's a news driven market. It was quiet in the news front. It appeared that Greek government backed down a little from previous hard line position. It proposed a new request for bail out without austerity measures.

I closed partial of my 2020 and 2010 scalps. It was tight ranged. Tomorrow is the last day to get exit any or all of my threatened positions. I must do it.

Grain continued to pushing up after USDA's report. Corn had a limited up day. I didn't do any trade in the front. I didn't see the reasons behind the move since the report was considered neutral. Let's see what the true intention of the trades are in the next couple of days.

Monday Sell Off

Greece is once again hijacked the world market. It broke off from negotiation with creditors and announced a referendum on July 5th. US futures opened down 1.5% on Sunday night. ES recovered 50% after European open. I woke up late this morning and missed Trader Bites and opening. Market was moving up and ES was back into CHVA. I was fooled by the retrace. I entered another set of Weekly 100 scalp at 1990 before reducing my 2020 position. Then the market tanked and broken overnight low before 3pm. My expectation was the overnight low would hold and we may be contained with 1.5% loss. It ended up losing more than that. ES/SPX lost 2% and RUT lost 2.6%. At the end I couldn't close my 2020, 2015 and 2010 scalping positions. I have to be more aggressive to control my risks tomorrow. Most of my Aug SPX and RUT puts were filled before 3pm. Leaving these positions underwater now. There may be another leg down and I need to increase my margin level. My leverage is at 1.97 now.  Hope the market take a breath tomorrow. But be prepared for the worst on the news driven market.

Grains continued to push up. I reduced my puts by reversing 3:1 to the call side. There is going to be a USDA report tomorrow which may cause trade to reevaluate the trend. I will stay out the grain market tomorrow.

Weekly Review 6-26-15

It was first week in trading after accompanying Yinmore visitors for over 12 days. I missed some selling opportunities during my absence from the market. Indices started falling from highs with news of no debt agreement from Greek. Shanghai index also dropped 20% in the last two weeks. US indices market turned into a news driven market in the last few days. Greek's referendum on June 30th could be a catalyst for European and US markets. I entered some weekly 100 scalps at 2020-2000 which are underwater now. I will have to watch them closely and prepare to rollover if delta gets to 3.0 or at 2x of premium early next week.

Grains staged a major reversal in the last two days of the week. I rolled over my wheat June 550 two days before the expiration day. Wheat pinned 560 on Friday. I missed the last part of the pop. I am OK with it. I followed my plan and avoid holding my positions to the last day. I locked in about $2500 profit from my September wheat puts. Now some of my calls are underwater. I should recover partially if the seasonal holds true this year. Bad weather has been the major factor for this rally.

I should be cautious of selling more puts or calls next until Greek situation is clear. VIX is at 14 now. It could go up further. I will continue to focus on risk control and self discipline.

Still News Driven 6-26-15

Overnight, no resolution for Greece debt and China market dropped 7%. US market is still in orderly auction. ES tested lower side of CHVA at 2086 and it held. It closed back into 2096 which was better than the last tow days of sell off at closing. My scalp positions got some room to breath. I should be OK if no shocking news over the weekend. Of course I am prepared to rollover if any of my positions are threatened.

Grains surprised me with a strong upside overnight. Apparently traders in Europe were buying on US's bad weather. Wheat went up over 5%. I suspect it was a strong run for short covering and pinned 560 instead my guess of 530. Corn had about 2.5% run up as well. I sold 2 calls of 470 for July. Some of my wheat calls are now under water. I will deal with them next week before USDA Ag production report on June 30.

News Pending 6-25-15

My plan:

ES recovered partially trading around 2105 from yesterday's low after European market open. Greece is still on focus. It could go either way depending on any news from Greece debt negotiation. The low of yesterday is not likely complete in the first of sell off. RUT appears has more room to the down side to its CLVA. I will try to sell some calls if there is a good news pop or push to retest yesterday's break down area. I will also close some mature positions.

Grains moved up overnight. Wheat and corn appear to pin 525-530 and 370-380 area on tomorrow's expiration. I will try to lock in some wheat profit of my Sept positions.

My execution:

Indices fall after the announcement there was no deal reached between Greece government and its creditors. ES fall into CHVA of 2097 area. The next low would be 2068 area if no news or bad news continues. I made an add on of scalp at 2015, it went in too early. I also entered couple small scalps in my small account before cash closing at 2000 level. The traditional Sell in May may be playing out in later June and July. RUT didn't drop much at all. It closed in yesterday's low. Is it a divergence? Let's see what may play out tomorrow.

Wheat and corn pushed up again on the day before option expiration. I locked in one Sept put of 460. I will try again tomorrow if wheat pins upward.

News Driven Market 6-24-15

I am back on the saddle after touring three southern states for the Sugarcane project. Monday and yesterday were inactive as market was topping and waiting for Greece debt deal. The news from Greece was negative today and market tanked near 1%. I was able to sell some puts to fill up late July and early August positions. ES/SPX and RUT are back into CLVA and we may see some fill in the areas. However, it's a Greece news driven market for now. Anything can happen. I shall be more conservative tomorrow.

Grains pushed up again but fall back before closing. I was able to close my last wheat 550 contracts with a smaller loss. I am set for now. I will be more actively manage my positions in wheat to lock in profit and reduce risk.

Critical Point? 6-10-15

My plan:

Indices moved up slightly with European market. It's above yesterday's high before open.  ES bounced off of Fib 78% area. If ES can hold the retest of yesterday's range and overnight low the pull back could be over until FOMC next week. We would have another leg down if yesterday's breaks. My plan is to fill in the range in ES, SPX and RUT.

I will have wait out WASDE today since I didn't get rollover my wheat 550 positions. I will see what reactions markets have after the report.

I have guests come in town from China and I will have only limited time to trade. I need to form a flexible plan after talking to them with their schedules.

My execution:

Indices popped over 1% on better news and hopes of Greece debt problem may be resolved soon. ES/SPX are closed at the area of break down of June 4th. The price action is stronger than a normal return to seen of crime. But it could be a head fake too. Be prepared for either way.

The USDA WASDE caused sell off in corn and wheat. Wheat is parked at lower end of CHVA around 512. It was a mistake that i wasn't aggressive enough to scale down my wheat position of 550.

I will spent time with my guests from Yunnan from tomorrow. I may have to place some rollover orders for longer terms. Just let them fill.

Turn Around Tuesday? 6-9-15

My plan:

I missed to plan my day after attending Trader Bite. I guess I don't follow my plan closely and not benefiting from the practice therefore I don't have enough incentives to do it like log in trades.

My execution:

ES broke both sides of IB. It moved to the upside after IB. I sold couple of RUT and SPX late July's positions. Not much to report about.

I was stressed about USDA WASDE Report when I looked at the USDA's website. Once I am stressed I can't think straight. I was planning to rollover my wheat 550 puts but couldn't use GTD order type. I didn't see any unusual price movements after 12pm. I check the USDA website again then realized the report is due by tomorrow. I was really disappointed to myself. I placed couple of rollover but no fills. I need to remind myself to keep calm and focus. I shouldn't trade it if something I can't spend enough time and concentrate on.

A New Week 6-8-15

My Plan:

Indices didn't do much overnight as European market varied and Shanghai index stand on 5100. RUT is stronger than ES/SPX. Who is going to follow whom? The range for ES is: above 2093, 2100, below 2085 and 2080. RUT is still above its CHVA. It may pull back to CHVN of 1255 or the lower edge of 1251, above is 1259-1265 of the CLVA. It may fill in this area for a while. My plan is to fill in on position weeks for later July.

Wheat and corn are up few points within last Friday's range. I will plan to rollover my June 550 puts.

My execution:

Indices slowly dripping down today. The slow pull back of last two weeks continues. I closed several call side contracts of June and early July to bring my margin from $65K to $82K. It was a strange situation as my June 1 positions expired worthless which had more puts than calls my available margin dropped from $90K to $65K after last Friday's closing. I didn't get any fill for new positions today. Today's closing of a new low of cash session indicating a possible continuation of selling pressure. I will try again tomorrow.

Wheat and corn held up at the closing today. I tried to roll my 550 but no fill. I may scratch to b/o my wheat 550 if the wheat rally continues for few more days.  I will try it again tomorrow.

Weekly Review 6-5-15

The first week of June ended with 100% profitable trades again. My total profit is $2880. The recovery continues. I made one key in error by looking at wrong strike price of SPX 1860 instead of 1850. Area of improvement is to not holding positions too long and worry about commissions and the little premiums left too much. Instead I can redeploy the capital for new opportunities. This week's example was the ES position for this week. I could have close it yesterday and redeploy it yesterday or today. That is a $150 opportunity left on the table.

Grains recovered somewhat. I didn't do much with my wheat positions. I will have to deal with it early next week since I have guest coming in town by mid of next week.

My plan:
Getting into the summer I need to stay nibble and light in July's trading. I may be absent from market for couple of weeks. I need to spend sometime to study new trading strategies for more income opportunities.

Better Job Data, Fear of Rate Hike 6-5-15

My plan:

May job reported 280K new jobs v.s. expected 220K. The better number caused a small sell off below yesterday's low. ES is still in its CHVA. Today's ES ranges are: highs at 2099, 2105 and 2109, lows at 2088, 2085 and 2080. RUT' ranges are 1256 to 1243, then 1241. We may see a choppy day after yesterday's sell off. It's Friday and traders may want to digest the job data anyway. I may sell some puts for later July but be conservative. We have not had a meaningful correct so far in 2015.

Grains fall down on USD's move up after the job report. I will analyze my wheat positions. I may close or roll June puts out to September.

My execution:

Indices didn't go too far on each side. The retest overnight low was met with buyers. But buyers couldn't carry the ball too far either. So it was a range bound day. I didn't have many order got filled. Sold a RUT June 5, 1140 spreads to form an Iron condor. One thing I noticed that I let too many of my positions expire worthless. I should have instead to close them and redeploy the fund for another opportunity without trying to save a few bucks.

Wheat and corn tried to push up but gave back all the gains at the end. The sentiment is still not clear. I will have to start rollover early next week as I have guests come again by mid of the week.

Tired Bulls? 6-4-15

My plan:

Indices futures dropped on concerns higher rate in Europe overnight. ES went below yesterday's low. It's trying to move back to yesterday's range at 9 AM. There is a gap above at 2114. It appears that yesterday's high was rejected and ES is back into CHVA of current balance area. My view for today is ES high: 2113.5 , 2116 and 2120; ES low: 2100, 2096-94. Below 2090 is a game changer. I would sell puts a little more aggressively to form more Strangles and Iron Condors as I am a little top heavy. My focus should be in the late part of July to avoid my possible absence during my planed summer travel.


Wheat moved back to yesterday's low. On the chart the retest of early May's low and held indicating the low is in for now.

My execution:

I got fooled by today's price action in indices. There was a strong rejection at overnight low so I thought it was going to be a range day again. I entered many puts and put spreads for July. Most of them got filled before 1 pm after ES/SPX broken yesterday's low. Now, all of my July's SPX and RUT are paired with strangles or Iron condors. I also sold 2 sets of next week SPX scalps at 2000 and 1990. Let's see what job report will bring tomorrow. I will be more conservative since now. I closed couple of next week's puts and my margin level is fine.

Wheat held above 5.10. I may spend some time on wheat and corn tomorrow. No trade today.

ECB Is In Focus Again 6-3-15

My plan:

Indices futures pushed up on ECB president's news conference. ES and RUT both touched their balance highs and pulled back. It's hard to tell if we will have a break out. We may still stuck in the range until the clear deck actions before FOMC. My plan is to only fill in current missing Iron Condor or Strangle spot.

Wheat and corn held yesterday's gains overnight. I will let my wheat go a little further while watching the price actions.

My execution:

Indices reversed lower highs and lower lows today. ES, RUT didn't have a sell off before closing either. The pattern has changed to more bullish settings. I closed couple of June 1 and 2 positions to increase my margin. I only sold one RUT call spreads. Market popped up pretty quick.

Wheat and corn gave up today's gains before closing. I had no trade in this front.

Missed Planning Again 6-2-15

I totally forgot to write my plan after attended Trade Bite. After market open I was drawn into the actions and never thought about my plan again.

My execution:

Another test low at open, push up during the day and sell off before closing day for indices. I didn't have any new sales today. I missed both side but closed couple of positions.

Wheat made 3.8% pop today. It's back above 510. I rolled over my 490 put to August 630 call and September 455 put based on seasonal. The 550 put is still a sour throat for me.

A New Month in the Same Range 6-1-15

My plan:

Indices futures stayed in last Friday's range overnight. ES has popped up and erased last Friday's losses. RUT is about the same story. Both of them are in balance area. It's hard to tell which side they are likely to break out. It may be waiting for news from Greece and some economic news later in the week. I plan to fill in empty weekly spot in both calls and puts if the market continues in range bound.

Grains are struggling in the bottom range. I am just watching to see if we get another short covering rally.

My execution:

Another choppy day for indices. A sell off before closing seams current day pattern. I sold both calls and puts during the swing. I also closed three positions to release some buying power.

Wheat shown some signs of reversing. I tried to rollover my wheat 490 puts but didn't get fill. My 550 put is still under water deeply. I will try it tomorrow again.