Weekly Review 1-30-16

This week is full of event, especially the late part of it.  FOMC, quarterly GDP, jobless claims were scheduled. Bank of Japan announced to make its rate below 0 was a surprise to many, including me. Friday US market reacted strongly to the positive side.

I ended this week with profit of $3580 without rollover any positions. It's a nice recover from last week's loss of rollover. I started to transition from ES to SPX spreads. It should be done by later Feb. Risk parameters improved at the end of the week. Buying power is back to 50% and net liq increased on this 2-3% surge. Premium collection is 5%, about $10800. Leverage is at 4, still not ideal. Strictly following my rules is still my weakness. I oversold calls yesterday. I need to keep calm and context during high volatile time. Step back and wait for things to play out.

Break Out To The Upside 1-29-16

Last night Bank of Japan set its interest rate below 0 sparked a rally in indices futures. When I glanced European markets this morning it didn't seam to be very strong. The US market even pulled back some before open. My plan was to sell some calls since my margin just went to put side yesterday. The target for ES/SPX was 1915-1920. I didn't expect a strong push after the first hour of RT.

I closed my SPY 191 puts expiring today without holding to my planed time and target. Although it was a winner but I let emotions take over and raise my exit price from 31 to 39 and got out around 11am. My plan was to let it work until 1:30. I didn't look at the overall context and big picture. I was afraid of the price fall back when it broke o/n high and retraced. The push up started after lunch. I placed call spreads in almost every week up to March 3. My order started getting filled after 2pm. Instead of evaluating the price actions and possible new target I kept looking for more selling opportunities. I had total of 26 orders filled in all of my account. I finally placed three protective CS before closing to bring my buying power up.

Risk factors improved. Net liq/A fund ratio is back to 52.8%. I collected about $2.8K premiums. However leverage is still at 40. I will review this week and the month tomorrow.

Squeeze and Choppy 1-28-16

It was an inside and choppy day. ES/SPX explored up and down several rounds rapidly. It ended with a doji bar. RUT closed near yesterday's low and shown some weakness. Overall it was directionless. B band continued squeeze pattern in daily and 4hrs. Tomorrow's GDP report may cause market to break one way or another. It's more likely to the down side since the trend is down and the oversold condition from the mid of Jan has had relief. We may see an retest of low and pop up as well.

It was a light day for me. I closed couple of positions and added one set of SPY calls. Two ES puts at 50% profit orders got filled tonight on a sudden pop up. Margin switched to puts side now. Not much changed in my risk profile except margin ratio is up to 49%.

Overnight Retest 1-26-16

US indices futures drifted down overnight with Asia market sell off. Shanghai index lost another 3+%. ES tested 1850 after European open, then recovered to yesterday's lower range before RTH. ES had a driving up day with green bars in every hour. SPX closed up 1.4% and RUT gained 2%. Overall it washed out yesterday's losses. The clean deck action appears completed in the down side. Then Apple's earning came out after hour somewhat disappointed the market with guiding down next quarter for the first time since 2003. It looks like that smart phone market is getting saturated. All eyes are on Fed FOMC tomorrow.

I closed 2 sets of SPY puts today and sold some call spreads ES and RUT. I broke call spreads to 2 sets in ET to form two set of IC since the rolled up put spreads were too wide. Let's see how it would work out. I saved two more car buying power there just in case I need to add to my call positions.

Risk factors improved with today's up swings. It made $5.1K paper gains. Leverage is at 4 and buying power at 33% of net liq. I held off the temptations of selling naked calls. I will only work on reducing my positions before FOMC tomorrow.

A Pull Back or Resume of Selling 1-25-16

US indices couldn't hold most of last Friday's gains today. ES/SPX lost 1.5% and RUT shredded 2.3%. So far it looks like a retest of the break out area of last week. With FOMC announcement in two days it's could be a clear deck action on both side. We may get a strong reaction if Fed disappoint the market with certain languages. Then we may see selling resumes in the down trend. CL is still a big factor to the equity market. It pulled back 5% today.

I didn't accomplish much today. A closing call of RUT got filled and bought 4 protective puts in SPY with sold put in 2:1 ratio. Sold a March 3 SPY 145 puts. I will have at least one set SPY put coming off and some calls tomorrow.

Risk factors worsen some with the pull back today. VAR and ES decreased  while net liq and available fund dropped as well. Increase buying power and reduce size will be my main test the next two days. I will hold off adding positions until after FOMC on Wednesday.

Weekly Review 1-23-16

Finally we saw a positive week for 2016. Indices rallied after retest the low of Oct, 2015. VIX closed below 25 on Friday after 4 days above it. The backwardation between VIX and VIX futures is almost diminished. We may get into a quiet period if the FOMC doesn't drop a bomb next week.

I booked $4400 loss for this week with several ITM puts in SPY and RUT rolled over to the next few weeks. I collected over $2K cash for the week. I wasn't panicking with plan of Tyler style rollover when positions get ITM. Keep positions small has saved me so far for this down turn from margin call although it wasn't small enough. I will continue to work on sizing. I am considering to trade CS in SPX and RUT puts with naked calls. ES has advantage of smaller margin and overnight trading but it's hard to make CS in a meaningful way or maybe.

Risk control through sizing and trading location are still the key and skill I have to continue to learn. Never forget that I was almost kick out of the game in August of 2015. Can't let it even near me again.

Follow Trough To The Upside 1-22-16

Globe stock market rallied overnight on ECB Droedi's comments of possible further stimulus. CL led the pack with 5.8% surge. Japan also closed up 5%. ES was up 1.4% before RTH. US indices closed up 2%. It looks like this rally has more room to the upside similar to Oct 2014 and August 2015. Of course an retest of current low is possible.

I rolled my SPY 191 puts to Feb 1, 185 and collected some premiums. Also sold call spreads in RUT and SPX on this push up. I still have more IC to make in my other accounts. I have learned to be more patience and not to chase the trade. A closed SPY call set released some margin as well.

Risk factors have improved further. Net liq increased 14K to 186K. Leverage is down to 41 but VAR and ES went up slightly. I still don't understand how the figures are calculated. My margin to net liq is at 36%. I should be able to bring it to 50% next week.

I will review my weekly performance tomorrow.

Holding Up For Now 1-21-16

US indices made attempt to stay above yesterday's high but failed at closing. So far they stayed inside yesterday's bodies. Opex day could be wild tomorrow. We may see an retest of yesterday's range soon and hope it will hold. If not we will see mid of 1700 soon. VIX is still above 26.5. It's in backwardation with its futures. This is topical during market turmoils.

I rolled over my RUT puts and collected some premiums. But they are still in the money. I added more ratio long puts in SPY to protect my naked puts and added a small set SPY calls. My SPY delta is high at 1500. I will have to reduce my size in short puts. I have one more roll over of SPY tomorrow.

Risk factors improved a little. Buying power is up to 35%. It has 15% more to go. P/L is up $31K. Leverage is still high at 55. My size is still too big.

A Possible Reversal 1-20-16

Another overnight gap down with global sell off. CL was the leading factor again. ES/SPX attempted pushing up right off of gate then failed. An over 3% drop was scary in the early session. ES/SPX went down to test 1810 area of Oct. 2014 low. Then buyers stepped in.  RUT was a tell for today's reversal. It didn't drop as much as its peers and led to a green day at closing.

I managed to weather the storm for today. At the height of the selling off my available fund was less than $40K and leverage over 70. I bought put spreads in ES and SPY to hedge my naked puts while sold smaller number of puts to finance them.

Risk factors increased from yesterday but was better than mid of the day. I will reduce my positions or put on more hedge after tomorrow's RUT rollover.

Failed to Rally 1-19-16

After the long weekend of MLK, futures rallied overnight for about 1.5%. During the RTH sellers are pretty much in control following the fall of CL. SPX's September low of 1870 were retested to day and held so far. Nest will be last August low of 1812. RUT already went below 2014 October's low of 1038. It closed another 1% down at 995. I have several puts deep ITM now.

I tried to sell more calls today. I didn't expect the sellers pressing gas all day long. So most of my orders didn't get fill. I only sold 1 set of SPY calls and 1 ES call. These replaced couple closed calls. Margin is still on call side.

Risk picture is not looking very good without much improvement. Leverage is back above 50. Net liq is slightly lower at 174K. VAR and ES are at 70 and 80K range. The only figure improved is available fund which went above 60K. I may not be able to stand for another 5% drop with current positions. I will have to deleverage more tomorrow.

Overnight Fall 1-15-16

China, Europe and crude oil contributed a big fall overnight. ES was down 40 points, -2.5% when I woke up this morning. It totally erased yesterday's gain. The globe market is in turmoil. Although US market held overnight level without falling further.

The worst part is that I left a SPX 1900/1850 CS in my IBP account when it was closed at 1920 yesterday. I am about 30 points ITM at the open, still waiting for settlement confirmation. It was a biggest mistake I made this week. I knew better to close it when I had chances to break even after regular hour yesterday. It proved once more that hold and hope is not a good strategy.

I worked on rolling SPY ITM. Increasing my margin was my main focus for the rest of day. My available fund was below $30K for awhile. I closed couple calls but left margin on the call side. I even tried to sell put to finance buying calls to hedge but didn't get filled. I will review this week's action over the weekend.

Relief Rally 1-14-16

The SPX bear flag played out early with a new low. It hit the trend line from 2014 low and quickly bounced. It gained over 2% before gave back some. It's still an impressive over 1.6% run for both SYX and RUT. This may be not the final bottom. The daily and weekly charts are still bearish. Volatility is still above 20 with a bull flag pattern. It helped me to adjust some of my positions and recovered some unrealized losses.

I rolled RUT 1060 CS in ET with Tyler's style. I collected some cash while waiting for the market to turn around. I had to roll RUT 1060 and 1030 naked puts in IB as well. I closed SPY Feb 3, 160 puts to reduce my puts.
I will roll my SPY 193, 192 puts tomorrow. These ITM positions were part of my rusty trade at the year end. My plan is to close out more puts. I need to use the break to get my risk control back to normal.

Falling Apart 1-13-16

US market started as a good day following overnight higher than yesterday's high. The first couple of hourly red candles weren't alarming  as they were still within yesterday's range. It appeared the crude oil price is the main driving force of the market these days. Crude inventory report pushed CL price down again near $30. ES was in selling mode without a single green hourly bar. It closed down 2.5% with a bearish engulfing bar and bear flag formation. It doesn't look very good for tomorrow. RUT lost 3.3% and closed below 2014's low.

My net liq was reduced with today's sell off. I had to close some ES, SPY and SPX calls to raise my margin. It made my margin to the put side again. I sold one set of Feb 5 SPX  CS and re-entered SPY Feb 3 160 puts which I should't have done. Luckily the SPX  1880 CS puts in ET was closed B/E this morning. It saved me to rollover tomorrow. Risk parameters are a mixed picture. Buying power is up but leverage went up too.

I have to rollover my SPX and RUT ITM puts as it's the last trading day for them. I will deal with SPY on Friday and try to reduce my put size.

Holding the Base 1-12-16

There was a pretty nice bounce overnight after European open. Swings have been large. A push down of 30 point to close the o/n gap made a retest complete during the RTH.

My margin in the main account shifted to call side during the last hour of push up. Several of my sell call orders got filled. The also took out more buying power than I expected. I need to raise my buying power to 40% at least from current 30% which is too low by my new standard. Leverage also needs to go below 30 from 37 now. Overall I still don't have a clear plan for sizing my orders. I need to decide if I want to trade SPX spread or ES naked. Both are separate in margin requirement.

I started to look at grains again today after USDA report. I tried to dip my toes into the water but no fill yet. I will have to play it small.

Turn Around Monday? 1-11-16

Index future gaped down Sunday night following Friday's sell off at closing. European session made a recovery back to Friday's lower range. US RTH couldn't break its overnight high after tested o/n low. Today's push down met with buyers a hour before closing. The down turn may not be over yet but didn't happen today. The bears may be just taking a breath.

The break gave me a chance to sell some calls and reduce some margins. I closed a ES put and bought puts in SPY and RUT. Risk parameters improved but need more work. I am too heavy on SPY. I will buy puts to hedge and close any position at B/E.

Weekly Review 2-2016

It was the worst 1st week of a year for US stock market. Every down day was more than -1% for SPX in the four out of 5 days. VIX is above 27 on high of the week. We may see VIX 30 soon. The sentiment is not in panic model as Friday's NFP report crashed the expectation in 290K vs 200K.

My account ended with $3252 realized profit this week. It was mainly from the rollovers of previous months. I had to rollover my SPY 199 puts which was ITM on Friday. It was an aggressive and over optimistic entry on 12-30. It was high on Vega. I have been selling puts on every down day without looking at the bigger pictures. I am too heavy on put side now. I feel that I am still rusty in reading the market and lack of strict discipline since I am back from the China trip. I kept selling puts as market went down and exceeded my limits of puts. I have some puts potentially getting ITM next week.

My goal for next week is to bring my risk parameters back to my plan, mainly to reduce my margin level back to 50% or better. Be prepared for another leg down of the market. My risk parameter should be always ready for a -20% shock. I need to learn how to set a test of 20% down in IB.  

Good News Is Bad Again 1-8-16

The December job report was a blow out of 290K vs 200K expected. Futures popped initially then faded out during the session. Today's price pattern is similar to yesterday: sell off at closing. It was another 1+% down day.

I didn't follow my plan well. I didn't reduce my margin rather increased it. It's the same weakness of discipline issue. I am lacking of focus on process of excellence and consistence. Improving in these areas will be my tasks of next week. I must bring the risk levels back to my plan.  

Falling Apart 1-7-16

The world market fall again with Shanghai Exchange down more than 7% in the first a half hour trading and triggered its circuit breaker for the 2nd time in a week. US market tried to recover from overnight losses but failed near low of the day at closing. All major indices are down more than 2%.

My lessons from August saved me so far this time. I wasn't trying hard enough to reduce my margin since I missed the morning push up. I still have 42% buying power left after I added a RUT put CS and ES put. I initiated CS in my personal accounts today. Get to prepare for another leg down or a bottom testing.

My plan for tomorrow is to reduce margin and roll my SPY 199 puts which is ITM. I will buy some puts to make my naked positions CS if I can't reduce my short puts.

Another Leg Down 1-6-16

It seamed that market knew something bad was coming. Yesterday's weak bounce formed a bear flag in SPX and RUT. Indices dropped another leg on the news of North Korea nuclear bomb test. There are a lot of talks of a bear market forming.

I closed some near terms positions and opened fewer new ones. Risk factors are withing my parameters except available margin is at 45%. I will try to bring it back to 50% tomorrow.

I have distractions from my car problem of sensors, the law suite with Deloach and marriage. I need to stay light for the next few weeks.

A Pulse 1-5-16

Indices traded inside of yesterday's lower range. BB 4hr and daily formation appeared a likely of  another leg down. I only closed and sold a put and sold a lower call.

My ES and VAR are high. I am still not clear of their relationship with margin and leverage. I am still having jet lag effect.

Welcome 2016

A big down day for the first trading day of 2016 led by China's 7% drop. DAX was down 4%. US indices were down 2-3% in early session, only to recover partially. I added some calls and closed couple puts today. My margin is switched to the call side again. I still feel that I have too many puts in my overall holdings.

I need to clear define the size of my position for each week on top of my portfolio risk parameters.