Selling Follow Through 4-29-16

The selling continued today. Market sentiment changed fairly quickly. SPX & RUT went down more than 1 and 1.5% respectively only partially before closing. So far it's a normal pull back. Both SYX and RUT are above their CHVN. Market still have more room before it turns bearish.

I had 10 filled orders across all of my accounts. Some of them are similar strikes of put spreads to form ICs. I bought couple of puts for May 1 and 2 to hedge margin. I sold couple June spreads. I need to go out further to void my travel schedule.

Risk is back in line now. Margin ratio is at 62% which gives me some firing power for next week. This week ended losing near $3400 due to rollover of the two deep ITM RUT calls. I need to enforce my rule of rollover when a position is at the money after the day of closing. Once it's deep ITM it's very hard to roll and collect premiums.

Possible Reversal 4-28-16

Futures dropped about 20 points after BOJ held its interest rate last night. It was a roller coaster ride today. Indices pushed all the way up to close their gaps. Then they sold off to make new lows of the day. It appears a reversal candle in place. For SPX and RUT they are still hanging on the low of current balance area. If we get another follow through to the down side SPX and RUT would fall back to the previous balance area or chop in the composite low volume area.

There were 11 trades today. All of my this week expiring calls were closed today. I sold a pair of RUT May 4 puts and couple set of SPY naked puts. I plan to use the SPY puts to finance the closing of 203 shorts. Margin is shifted to puts now.

Risk factors are back inline now. Margin ratio is at 60% and leverage is at 93 with 390 spy left.

No Hike As Expected 4-27-16

Market battled after FOMC but bulls had upper hands at the end. As expected a likely scenario SPX is on track to retest the all time high at 2134 from last May. Then possibly make new high. RUT is closed January's b/o area at 1150. Next target is 1180 to 1200.

Had 3 trades today. I rolled the deep ITM RUT 1055 and 1090 to next two weeks and collected about $150 for each roll. I may not be able to close these bear calls until later May. I will continue to roll and collect premiums. I am pressured on the call side.

Risk factors remind the same level. I will continue to buy hedges tomorrow. I need to sell some SPX calls to finance the gradual closing of SPY 203 shorts. I will come up an offset figure to execute the plan.

Holding Up Before FOMC 4-26-16

Indices chopped mostly on the day before FOMC tomorrow. RUT had a 1% up recovered its loss from yesterday. Investors expect no rate hike from Fed tomorrow and want to explore higher prices. Apple reported 1st quarterly sales and revenue drop in ten years after hour. Its share is down 8% and dragged futures down as well. We may see a small gap down in the morning. But FOMC is a much bigger force to the market.

I had three trades today. Closed this week's SPX 2130 call around 75% profit to reduce margin and risk. I also bought a May 1 2175 call to hedge my positions for 10 days. I also sold a June 3 SPY 180 puts to cover the hedging cost. I will wait for FOMC dust settled before selling any positions tomorrow.

Risk factors improved due to closed calls and purchased hedge. I have 3 naked SPX, 3 naked RUT and 10 naked SPY in put side. Some of them should be closed by tomorrow. Margin is still on the call side.

No Trade 4-25-16

Bears pushed the market down most of the day. Bulls took it back before closing. It appears the shake out before FOMC. SPX/RUT held their current balance area of 2075-2210 and 1130-1149 respectively. We may see another up thrust if no surprise from FOMC.

I tried to sell some puts with with Delta near 6 but no fill. There is about $1500 worth of Theta decay today which may be easily erased with a up swing. It was a frustrating day.

Risk factors fall out of the line due to the expiration. Margin ratio is down to 35%. I need to buy more hedge tomorrow.

Short Lived Bears 4-22-16

Bears could not hold their gains to the end. RUT held up all day long and up 1%. VIX crushed to 14.21. It appears bulls may be determined to retest the all time high or even to make a new high before end of May.

I had 7 filled orders. Rolled RUT 1140 call to 2 weeks out with a put. Closed RUT 1145 in the last hour as it held up pretty well and closed ITM. I didn't bargain too much and luckily got filled the last one.  The SPY 210 was closed at the open.

Risk profile is about the same. The available funds will decrease again as the hedging positions expiring.

Finally A 0.5% Pull Back 4-21--15

Bears shown up today and changed the pattern of run up in the day. SPX and RUT pulled back about a half percent. It's a small relief for my portfolio. The SPX daily uptrend is still intact and 4 hr BB is in squeeze mode. It's just a small break. We may see the trend resume soon. I need a little longer chop or pull back to unload some of my bear calls.

Three of my puts orders got filled. Also closed couple of calls for tomorrow's expiration. Overall my Delta is still in negative big time. I need to watch out my total size of positions. The IB account is getting risk fees. I have couple positions to rollover tomorrow.

Risk factors look much better today. Margin ratio is at 45%.  I plan to hedge more to reduce my negative Delta.

Wear Off Patience 4-20-16

Indices still melt up slowly. SPX hit 2110 of my upper target while VIX made a low of 12.5 today. The pattern of down in the open and up in the afternoon has persistently played out for over a week now. My portfolio continuously get squeezed.

There are 7 filled trades today. SPY March 5 call spreads in other accounts finally got filled after several tries in the last few days. I also added 1st SPX call spreads for June 1. Also closed 2 puts, added 1 hedge on call side.

Risk factors stayed similar as yesterday. Margin ratio is at 29% and leverage is above 100. It may take awhile for me to exit the 400 SPY 203 shorts as it closed above 210 today.

No Turn Around Yet 4-19-16

SPX 2100 and RUT 1140 were reached today. Both have been pushing on top of their B band. I was hoping that we might see a turnaround Tuesday. But sellers were only able to close the overnight gap below. Buyers are still in control. They may have the power to make a new high before the summer.

I bought 3 calls to reduce margin pressure. One put was closed at my target. Tried to fill in some call cs in other accounts but didn't get filled. I am not in a hurry.

Risk factors is better than yesterday. Margin ratio is barely above 30%. Net liq is stable. I will buy more calls if we get another push up tomorrow.

The Squeeze Continues 4-18-16

Indices futures dropped on Sunday night following the failed oil production freeze meeting among oil producing countries. My expectation was that Monday was going to be a down day with a fairly large gap. My portfolio would get some relief for a change. Of course the counter commonsense would happen on wall street any time. European market took ES back to its range and closed the gap before the US open. Then the correlation between equity and crude were totally broken. US indices broke to the upside and back to the high of recent balance area.

I had to change my plan from selling puts to hedging my bear calls and reduce margin. I also sold couple couple more call spreads expecting the squeeze may not go forever. I will continue to buy hedges tomorrow.

After last week's hedging positions expired risk factors went into bad shape. Net liq went down 32K. Margin ratio is reduced to 24.5%, the lowest in several months. My priority now is to bring the risk factors back to normal.

Choppy Friday 4-15-16

Indices chopped in a small range again unlike what I expected a wild swing on this option expiration Friday. Sellers tried to push the market down but couldn't even get to retest the break out area. Buyers couldn't get it out of yesterday's range either. The bull flag pattern is still holding well. I expect another up thrust next week if there is no big surprises over the weekend. Major crude producers will have a meeting discussing production freeze during the weekend. It may give the energy market some energy even with a unbinding agreement.

I rolled over SPY 207 calls to May 1 210.5 plus 195 puts. No other orders got filled. It was a slow week without any meaningful pull back. It ended with a $113 losses due to the three near the money and ITM rollovers.

Risk factors increased somewhat. The available funds get affect a lot when hedging positions expires. Margin ratio is at 46.8%. I still have not been able to unload the 400 short shares of SPY at 203.

Resting 4-14-16

Market took a day to rest after yesterday's break out. It chopped around in a small range. The upward movement is not over yet if it hold the break out point to establish a new balance area.  We may see 2100 and 1150 for SPX and RUT respectively as long as FED won't step in.

Had 8 trades, 3 rollovers, 3 close out and 2 hedges.  I have 2 RUT calls ITM. RUT 1145 is close to ITM too. I will hold off of selling calls until the range of the new balance area cleared. If the market fall back to the previous range then I will get some relief and add more puts. I have SPY 207 to roll over tomorrow.

Risk is still within my range. Added some naked puts from the rollovers. They should be hedged and slowly exit out.

A Break Out Follows 4-13-16

Following yesterday's HOD closing SPX and RUT broke out today. They also closed to their HOD again. With the monthly options expiring tomorrow trades may pin it higher again. One of my hypotheses is that SPX may test 2100 soon. If there is no indications for rate hike in April or May we may see a new high before end of May. Then we will see the summer grind or pull backs.

I am glad I saved some bullets yesterday. There are 10 trades across my accounts. 6 of them are call spreads for later May. The rest of them are hedging positions for reducing margins. I also closed one put. I have SPX 2090, RUT 1090, 1130 and 40 to roll tomorrow. I already set exit prices for 1040 if we get a decent pull back tomorrow.

Risk factors are still inline. Net liq dropped $9K due to the price break out. Margin ratio is at 49%. I need to refrain from selling bear calls in next few days just in case there is another melt up.

A Full Test Of The Range 4-12-16

Indices opened lower from yesterday's closing. Buyers stepped in at yesterday's low and defended the balance range. Then the rumor of Saudi and Russia might agreed to the production cut came out. Crude shoot up and most sectors turned green. ES/SPX formed a bullish engulfing broken yesterday's high and low. RUT didn't go that far. Overall the pair are still in their balance area but shifting towards the upside.

I was prepared to sell puts in the morning. My main hypotheses was after initial push then market would fall which played out in the morning. None of my put orders got filled since we didn't get a real break down. During the push up I switched to sell calls. I had seven orders filled for late May. 3 naked and 3 CS plus a 1:2 ratio hedge. Margin is to the calls again.

Risk factors are still inline. Margin ratio is still at 55%. I plan to hedge call side a little more tomorrow for positions of next couple weeks.  

In Range 4-11-16

Indices closed to a lower note after opening higher. ES and RUT are still trading in their daily balance range. It will resolve one way or another, perhaps with the FOMC meeting.

Had four trades today. Closed some positions on both sides during the chop. I only sold one RUT put to replace a closed CS short put. None of my CS in both sides get filled. The slow grinding continues.

Risk factors are above my safety line. Margin ratio is at 63 and switched to put side now. I had more bullets to use should the market breaks down.

Week 15 Review 4-10-16

The week ended with a down note for US indices. SPX faced a weekly and monthly trend line resistance. The SPX daily uptrend is still intact. RUT is way behind on the technical levels in comparison with its peers. It barely retested its Jan's b/o area and lower low in weekly. We may see more indications for market direction next week.

It was a small profitable week with a net gain of $716. Due to the scheduled deposition for Delaoch case I moved most of my rollover positions to April 3. I made a mistake of buying a put instead of selling it. I don't even remember when was the last time I made such a stupid error. Luckily it was a down day the next day. I got out with a small profit.

Risk factors are brought back inline. Margin ratio was around 50% for most of the week.

I discussed transfers with TOS and took couple of training sessions. My main objective is to avoid future margin calls without spare time.  

Choppy Friday 4-8-16

Futures moved up overnight with European markets. They pretty much chopped within yesterday's range. The market ended up closing flat.

I had to go to a deposition for the Delaoch case in the morning until noon. Had four trades today. Closed 2 puts and bought one put to reduce risk. I sold RUT call to collect some premiums to cover my closing cost.

Risk factors are above the average. Still holding the 400 share of SPY short.

Ups and Downs 4-7-16

Markets turned around to the down side after yesterday's surge. Technically SPX & RUT retested yesterday's low and poked through a bit. US indices closed down 1% or more. Of course the up trend is still intact.

I had 11 trades in IB and ET. Closed couple positions in call side. Sold 4 CS in put side and 1 naked SPX put for May 3. Today's drop and new puts caused margin to the put side. I have only 1 spx 2090 call left for tomorrow's expiration. I will handle it in the afternoon after I am done with the deposition.

Most risk factors are back inline now. Margin ration is at 52%. I plan to take off couple of puts to reduce excess fees over the weekend.

Reversal On Fed Minutes 4-6-16

Fed minutes revealed dovish sentiment during its FOMC meeting last month. Indices reversed to the upside. SPX and RUT closed their gaps from Monday. It appears bulls want to push higher. The next couple of days will tell the real interpretations of market regarding FED's statement.

I had only two trades today. Closed a SPX put for this week and sold a SPX call CS for May 5. I followed my rules not selling before the Minutes release. It's OK that I missed the morning's selling.

Risk is the same. Margin is near to switch to puts now. I am making progress in switching to TOS. Talked to a rep for the area.

Another Down Day 4-5-16

Indices gaped down following most Asian and European markets. DAX closed down 2.5%. SPX and RUT made several attempt to recover but still closed down 1%. FOMC Minutes will be released by 2pm tomorrow. It may produce some wild actions afterwards.

Had 6 orders today in IB. Four of them were hedging and closing positions. Sold two RUT naked puts. I also closed the error put with a little profit. Plan to sell some CS tomorrow if we get more vols.

Net liq and funds are both up thanks for the pull back. Margin ratio is back to 48%. I still don't know for sure how much the ratio could stand on what percentage vol increase. Talked to TOS on basic training in preparation of moving over.

Another Try To The Down Side 4-4-16

Indices tried a new high from last week then failed to hold it. Is it a beginning of pull back after another up week? I hope so but not confirmed. SPX and RUT closed near low of the day but still inside of last Friday's range. We may see another attempt to retest the crime seen of last Jan.

I made an error entry which hasn't happened for a long time. I was placing a put sell order in RUT. Instead it was a buy order I didn't even notice until I was keying the trade after hour. I still couldn't figure out what happened. Was it because I was tired from the weekend's window repair? I woke up after 9:30 today. Other than the mistake there was no any order filled. I will close the misfit position tomorrow.

Risk factors dropped some from the weekend expiration. IB's projection of available funds is often wrong before the weekend.

A Head Fake To The Down Side 4-1-15

It's the April Fool or what? Indices headed down before closing of yesterday. Futures follow the down move overnight with European markets down more than 1.5%. The March NFP report came out better than expected but pre market was still push lower. First was the gap fill to yesterday's closing. Then most bears got fooled. I was fooled too although I was only looking at probabilities. I got squeezed on these bear calls I thought were safe expiring today. I ended up forced to roll over SPX 2060, 2065 and SPX 206 in the afternoon.

There were 7 trades today. I had four rollovers and 3 bear call spreads in May. Market may be pushed higher before this month's FOMC. There may be a new high in May if no rate hike in April. I need to withhold selling bear calls to save my buying power.

Risks are within my parameters so far. With this week's protective calls expiring I may have to buy more call to hedge my positions.