A New High Insights For SPX

Bulls continued to grind up even before the long weekend. SPX and RUT inched up for 05% or more. SPX is less than 40 points away from reaching an all time high. RUT may have a good distance to go but it could ramp up quickly.

Five trades today. I had to roll my DITM RUT 1100, 1115 to July one. The 1140 was pushed into money. Once it gets deep in the money it's hard to get far away. I had to take about $9K losses to roll less than 15 points away. However I collect over $300 premiums for each rollover. My realized loss in IB is $7K for the week.

Net liq is down below 200K. Luckily margin ratio is still above 50%. I will have to watch it closely while traveling in China.

Holding Up 5-26-16

Indices held up well but traded in a small range like yesterday. SPX and RUT are both near top of b band on daily charts. However MACDs for both just started turning green. It appears there are energies to push up.

It was a boring day. Only one RUT exit call trade filled after cash closing. I tried to roll my RUT 1100 and 1115 to July one but no luck. I have only tomorrow left to rollover since I am leaving on Saturday.

Risk factors improved somewhat due to the time decay. Margin ratio is back to 49%. I will try to buy couple RUT calls to hedge after rollover my DITM positions.

The Break Out Continues 5-25-16

The market didn't take a breath as usual after yesterday's 1.5-2% break out. SPX and RUT added another 0.7-0.5% today. Shorts felt the squeeze. It doesn't look like a head fake anymore. SPX and RUT may retest April highs of 2013 and 1159 respectively, then possibly march into a new high for SPX before June's FOMC meeting.

Seven trades today across my accounts. I added more bear call spreads for July strikes with most in SPX. All of my personal and managed accts are filled with at least one positions. Now I just need to wait patiently to add the put side when and if the market pull back.

Risk factors are down to my watch levels as I am heavy on short side now. Margin ratio is at 46%. VAR reached $80K at the highest level of the month. I will hold back for adding positions and try to close close couple positions before this Friday.

Break Up Again 5-24-16

US indices popped up after failing to push down yesterday. SPX and RUT raised 1.37% and 2.1% respectively. It was a much stronger move than anticipated considering the cloud of rate hike. SPX and RUT both closed above their balance area. They may reestablish a new balance area if they can hold their gains.
MACD looks ready to cross up and go positive on daily charts but B bands are still rang bounded. They could change following price actions.

Nine trades were filled across my accounts. Most of them are call spreads for July. My SPX CSs are above all time high. RUT positions are not. They appear to be riskier but are 8% away. Margin is on call side now. My concern is this week's RUT 1100 and 1115 calls. They are in the money now. I have to roll them to late June or early July strikes since I have to travel for most of June.

Risk parameters are narrowed but still in my safety zone. Margin ratio is 57%. I may still leg up for CS if we get another thrust this week.

Choppy Monday 5-23-16

It was a slow choppy Monday. Market seemed to have no desire to go anywhere. It's test of patience to the painful point. However the theta decay is nice for options sellers. At this point market could break out to either direction. I will just wait and see.

Had six trades today. Five of them were closing positions. My exit orders for naked puts at 50-80% got filled. I wanted to reduce my exposures in the downside while I am traveling in China.

Risk factors are still above average. I intend to leave it this way during my absence.

Market shack Off Fed 5-20-16

Indices turned up after the rate hike talks from Fed FOMC minutes release. It again acted against commonsense of fear of rate hike. As often the case one should expect the unexpected in the financial market. We may see the real intention of the current move.

Had four trades today. Closed 3 positions and sold a naked RUT June 5, 1200 call out of boredom. This week closed with $6.6K profit after fully recovered April's loses last week.

Risk factors are still above my water mark. I will try to deploy some July strikes if we see a sell off next week.

Big Swing Ended Nowhere 5-18-16

Market is exploring directions before and after FOMC Minutes release. SPX ended with a doji despite increasingly talks of rate hike in June. RUT ended slightly higher. It may take a little longer for market to digest the Fed's intention. The down pressure is present on SPX/ES. Let's see if 2040 could hold by end of the week.

Five trades filled today.  Closed a RUT call and rolled a RUT ATM 1110 put to 1080 1:2 ratio next week. I also bought two 1:2 ratio puts the hedge margin. I sold one set RUT call spreads for July 1 to form a IC in ETP acct. I have 2 RUT 1095 call to roll tomorrow. Let's see if the pros will run over the weaker shorts first or the weaker longs.

Risk factors are at healthy levels. I will continue to add July positions while preparing for my trip.

Turn Around Tuesday, Vol Up 5-17-16

Indies kept going ups and downs without a direction. They turned to the down side today while market is awaiting for tomorrow's FOMC minutes. VIX is above 15 now with these 1% ups and downs. RUT is weaker than SXP. Current B bands indicate the pull back may not go too far. I like the range bound for now since I added more puts and Dalta neutral now.

Made 5 trades today. I sold couple more July's put spreads in both SPX and RUT. Made a June 4 SPX IC in ET.  I will go further out in date and strikes this week if market continue to go down.

Risk factors are similar to yesterday. I have plenty of dry powder to us if needed.

New Trend On Monday? 5-16-16

Index futures recovered from gap down of Sunday night. SPX and RUT made a 1% recovery from drifting down of last three weeks. The IHS is still in play for SPX on weekly chart. The daily chart is showing a bounce after touching the lower B band. RUT's chart are in bearish side on daily and weekly.

Made 4 trades today. Sold a set of SPX July 2 2180 call spreads and SPY July 3 218 calls. Being a penny man again with SPX July 1 call spreads in ET trying to form a IC.

Risk factors are fine. Margin ratio is at 64%. Margin is still on the put side. I will continue to add positions for July.

Lower Side Retest 5-13-16

Bears took over today. SPX and RUT broke yesterday's low and closed at the lower part of their balance area. We will see if the balance lows could hold next week.

Made 11 trades across all of my accounts today. Most of them were put spreads for late June and early July. I avoid most of June because of my travel plan. I will deal with it when I get back if we get a big pull down next month.

Risk factors are still in good shape although margin is back to put side. Margin ratio is at 73% despite adding put spread and rolling calls. I still have room to add puts if the market continue to drop next week.

Exploring Directions 5-12-16

Indices retest recent break out area early today and found buyers later. The last three days swings appear that market is exploring directions with jobless claim raise and retails down. Right now bulls and bears are in a tug war.

I had five trades today. All of them are buy back bear calls. I had to go to review my depositions. I placed some put spreads but no fills. Now I am light on both side. I will start to sell for July contracts.

Risk factors are above average now. Margin ratio is above 72% which is the highest on my records. I will have more firing power in next few days if there is a breakout in either direction. I have only one RUT call positions to rollover tomorrow.

Tricky Market 5-11-16

Indices reversed yesterday's trend to close to the down side. SPX and RUT are back to their balance area. It will eventually break out but it's hard to tell which direction at this movement. Range bound help my positions in theta.

I was able to add puts spreads in both SPY and RUT for June 5 to form ICs today. Made 4 trades today. Other than the two mentioned early. I sold 3 SPY June 4 180 puts and closed a RUT bear call. Margin is still on the call side today. My trading PC is having hard drive problem for the last two days. I am distracted somewhat. I need to replace a HD or a PC.

Risk factors are inline. Margin ratio is still above 50%.  

Retest Neck Lines? 5-10-16

SPX & RUT had about 1% surge to the upside today. SPX closed right at last week's high of 2084. It looks its ready to challenge that high. Above it is the HS neck line of 2100 where the break down started. If SPX close above 2100 then the HS pattern will be void. RUT is in the same pattern but behind SPX. It's in a more clear down trend and 2nd wave of down movement. On its daily chart it crossed above 200 SMA again which is somewhat bullish.

I made 7 trades today. 3 of my puts in SPX, SPY and RUT were closed. During the grind up this afternoon my call CS in SPX June 5 and July 1 got filled between 2190 and 2200. I will sell more call spread in RUT if it catches up in next day or two.

Risk factors are inline with some room to add. Margin ratio is at 57%. I plan to use it carefully.

Choppy Session 5-9-16

Indices held the gains of last Friday but couldn't move up much. The pull back may be over if SPX and RUT can hold an retest of 2039 and 1101 respectively. We could see another leg down if the recent lows are broken.

Had only two trades today. Sold a SPX June 5 2180 call spread and closed a May 3 2160 bear call. Margin is back to the call side again. Vol is still low. I sense a choppy period or a sudden drop possible.

Risk factors are above average. Margin ratio is near 62%. I am in a good spot to add positions if there is a decent move.

Down Pressure 5-6-16

I was expecting a pull back to the upside before April's NFP on Friday. But any push up attempt met sellers although the ranges were small. Last week's unemployment claim was higher than expected. Market is waiting for tomorrow's NFP report. Who knows how a good news or bad news will be interpreted.

Had three filled trades. I rolled RUT 1090 ITM call up 5 points and two weeks out. Sold a RUT put ratio hedge and SPX 1750 June 4 CS. I have to go to Chapel Hill tomorrow and won't trade the NFP.

Risk factors are above my normal levels. Margin ratio is at 57%, VAR and ES are in $50k range. I will be able to withstand a mini crash and sell more puts.

One More Lower Test 5-4-16

SPX and RUT moved one more step lower today. Both closed back into previous balance area. VIX is at 16. Tomorrow market may be choppy in preparation for Friday's job report.

9 trades today. Closed more near term positions. Other than a naked SPY June 5 170 puts none of my put spreads got filled. I rotated my RUT 1060 deep ITM call from May 3 to May 2 with two of 1090. I wanted to lock in some profit and raise the strike up. Hopefully to get out of this position sooner with 1:2 increased position. Margin is to the puts now. I also sold couple of RUT 1:2 ratio hedges on call side. I plan to see more calls when and if we get a run up. I need to remember to wait for prices get to resistance levels to place my orders. I also need to spend more time to learn TOS trade placement.

Risk parameters stayed at healthy levels now. I don't need to deploy all of my firing power. Continue to learn to be patience. There are times to stay on the side lines.

Holding Up 5-2-16

SPX and RUT took back the lost ground of last Friday. They are back to their previous balance area again. If last Friday's lows hold we may see another leg up after chopping through the CHVA. We have to wait to see which way they will go first.

There are five trades today. Couple of expiring call and put were closed. I started selling positions for late June due to my planed trip to China. Keep in mind to stay small in positions during summer time. My losses of last two years happened during the summer. It's a dangers time.

Risk factors are inline. Margin ratio is at 51% and backed to call side again.

Turn Around Tuesday 5-3-16

SPX and RUT fall overnight after European open with lower Euro region GDP forecast. SPX retested near Monday's low of 2053. RUT already broken Monday's low of 1125 and closed below it. We may see another push to the lower side and bounce back before Friday's April Job report.

There were 4 trades today. Rolled RUT 1060 call to May 3 to lock in some gains. I had to roll May 2 1120 put to May 3 1110 base on my rule of rolling ATM positions out to prevent ITM. It's difficult to roll ITM positions. I tried to sell some late June's puts but no fills. Will try again tomorrow. I started to place duplicate paper trades in TOS to prepare for account transfer.

Risk factors are inline. Margin is on call side and the ratio is at 55% which gives me some ammo to add positions.