Relentless Bulls 7-29-16

Nothing can stop an raging bull. Market shrugged off lower 2nd Q GDP and BOJ inaction. After an attempt of sell off in the morning the same pattern of this week played out again. Buyers stepped in to fend off sellers. RUT made another new high of 1223.6. So far there has not been a clear rejection of high. There may be another attempt to the upside next week.

My story is the same: getting squeezed by relentless bulls. Made 20 trades today. Rollovers and buying new hedges are the main tasks. I tried to use risk reversal to reduce my cost of buying hedges. It basically is buying a hedge call and selling a put to finance it. I wonder why I didn't think of it before. Of course it involves risk of having too many naked put in case of a sudden reversal.

Risk profile looks safe for now. New liq fall some to $157K. Margin is at 46% after adding more calls. I collected less than a $1000 premiums this week. I survived this brutal week. The loss continued for the week. It may not be over yet unless we see a decent pull back next week. July ended with about $25K losses on the paper. The summer draw down into August. I need to watch out for a sudden pull back since August is traditionally a bad month for financial market.

Still No Directions 7-28-16

The same pattern of early selling and late buying played out again today. Indices are still chopping in the same tight range. It will break out one way or another soon. Tomorrow's GDP may provide such an opportunity. Earnings are still better than expected. Technically MACDs in both SPX and RUT are about to cross to the down side. I will prepare for either side break out.

Made four trades today. Rolled over 2 ITM calls and closed RUT 1230 call. I also bought a 8-5 call to hedge margin using part of the premiums collected from the rollover. I will have to buy more to hedge the expiring calls.

Risk profile is still under pressure. Margin ratio is at 30% and will drop again by next Monday with this week's call expired. A pull back will be very helpful but hope is not a strategy. I don't have much room to add puts either.

No Surprise FOMC 7-27-16

Market seems to know FOMC better than FOMC itself. So there was no big price movement after the FOMC announcement. Indices tried to go lower but couldn't break prior daily lows. Buyers stepped in at daily lows. RUT even made into a new high at closing. Earnings continue to beat expectations. So buyers are still in control. There may be another thrust up since Fed is out of the way until Sept.

I only had one order filled. It closed a RUT put position. I will start to rollover these deep ITM calls tomorrow. Expecting another RUT call of 1230 off the table before Friday.

Risk profile improved a little. Margin is at 23%. I will start to buy hedging calls to defend next week's margin tomorrow.

Bulls Are Still In Control 7-26-16

It's turn around Tuesday? Two sell off attempt for SPX were bought at the low of yesterday. Trades don't believe Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. RUT set a new high again today. Trades is betting on no rate change from FED tomorrow. We may see another push higher as earnings are getting better. Could market sell on the news? It's possible. Daily MACD are near crossing down while markets kept pushing up.

Made four trades today. I bought hedges on both sides plus closed a put position. My RUT positions are getting deeper ITM. Margins are squeezed again. I am paying the price of being undisciplined. It may take me couple months to recover. It's like the summer of 2014, 2015 all over.

Risk parameters are in the danger zone but with some breath room. I have to build another wall of hedging before Friday like previous weeks. No it's a matter of survive until the market turn around.

A Mood Change On Monday? 7-25-16

Another try to break down failed at last Fridays' low. I think trades are positioning for FOMC. There have not been a clear rejection for the highs. The bull flags are in tack. Rather SPX may have another shot to make a new high before or after FOMC. RUT appears to have more room to the upside too. It all depends on FOMC for now.

My holdings got a small relief again with less than 0.3% pull back in both SPX and RUT. Made 4 trades today. All of them are hedging and rolling over and reduce positions.

Risk measures improved with one less SPX bear call and couple new hedging positions. Margin is up to 22%, but still in the danger zone.

Survived Anther Day 7-22-16

Market refused to go down. It took back all of losses from yesterday. SPX closed at another new high of 2175. RUT also closed at 1210. My accounts get squeezed again alone with expiration day draw down. We may see a new push before FOMC early next week.

Made 9 trades today. Most of them are margin hedges. I closed one 2200 call with a small profit. I have another one to close next week. At one time today I was totally out of buying power. I then sold a RUT naked put and rolled an ITM call up with a put to release some margin. I barely survived today. I will have to buy more hedges next week.

Risk is hanging on cliff again. Available margin is 7%, the lowest level since last Nov. The third year of summer slump continues. I still have a lot to learn to master this game.

A Small Relief 7-21-16

Major indices had a small pull back after a failed push up at the beginning. SPX and RUT were down more than 0.5% at some point this afternoon. The daily structures are still intact. It was a welcome relief for my accounts. IB net liq had about $8K increase.

I rolled over my deep ITM positions today since there is no hope of getting out in another day. I don't like the feeling of forced to fill in the last couple hours of expiration day. Had five trades today. Two rollovers and three hedges. I collected a decent premium of $630 and used partial to cover my hedging expenses of the last few days.

Risk factors are back from the edge of cliff. Margin ratio is at 33% and leverage is at 95. However, it may be only one day relief since many of my long calls will be expired after tomorrow. I will have to buy more hedges to fend off the expiration impact tomorrow.

The Bull Flag Playing Out 7-20-16

Indices got a boost from more positive earnings, like MSFT and Banks. SPX inched up making a new high of 2175. We may see it get to 2185 to 2205 range before next week's FOMC. RUT is likely to break last week's high of 1212. Gold continues to fall. Interestingly VIX future went up while indices made new highs. I tried to dip in some VIX call options but didn't get fill. It may be time to get some volatility as its MACD is about to crossing up.

I had only one trade of closing a put. My IB acct is hanging on 25% margin cushion while net liq continues to fall. Tomorrow I plan to start roll my deep ITM calls and buy more hedges to survive this squeeze. The 3rd year of my summer draw down appears affirmed. I get to lean and change.

Still Holding 7-19-16

Indices are still holding up while slightly down today. Earnings are better than expect for big techs and banks so far. The bull flag or topping pattern are developing without a clear winner. The bulls looked tireless. Be prepared for another run up.

I had to go to Anderson, SC to attend the house inspection. I set to buy couple long calls and closing short calls. Some got filled.

Risk factors are better than yesterday. The 9 ITM positions are a major concern. I may start to roll up the deep ITM ones first.

Flagging or Topping? 7-18-16

It was basically an inside day for indices with small gains. Earnings continue to be positive mostly. MACD is reaching top of its range on daily. SPX and RUT weekly are outside of BB top. BB daily still show room to the upside. It's possible that we will see another thrust up before the bulls let go of their gas paddle.

I continued to increase calls to increase available margins. Made five trades today. Most of them are twisted adjustment to fend off low margins. I am still paying the price of my undisciplined acts.

Risk factors worsened due to the expired hedges mainly. Net liq lowered to $161K and margin ratio is down to alarming 15%. I have to buy more calls to bring margin back and close couple short calls to reduce my size. I will have to do it in the morning before I leave to Anderson for the house inspection.

Taking A Break On Friday 7-15-16

Bulls took a small break from a four days of new high making. SPX and NASDAQ closed slightly lower while DJ and RUT stayed in the positive territory. After the report of Turkish military coupe the indices futures dropped to the day's lows. But the impact looks limited. As of Saturday the coupe was failed. The bulls may have another reason to push up again on Sunday night.

There were seven trades. Mostly hedges and closing put positions. I sold two SPX late August naked puts. The premiums covered the cost of the hedges. I had to buy couple more calls to fend off the expiring hedging calls for next Monday.

Risk factors are still in my warning zone. Margin is at 31% and will be lower on Monday after the expired calls kicking in. I have 22 short calls in SPX and RUT in which 9 are ITM and 13 are near or OTM. Pluse there are 3 SPY 215 calls and 250 short shares. That is a lot of pressure on my IB acct. My main test for next week is to reduce my size prevent margin calls. It looks like another summer draw down is in progress. I have warned myself before but didn't stick to my plan.

Another New High 7-14-16

Dow and SPX made new highs on the fourth day of this week. J.P Morgan reported better than expected earning. Bulls are relentless. MACD is showing overbought condition now but bulls may still go on for a while. I don't have good weapons for a trending market.

My account is squeezed to the limit again. I finally rolled all of the ITM positions and took big paper losses. When these expiring hedge contracts settle tomorrow morning I will face margin shortage again. Made 7 orders today. They are all rollovers and hedging. I had to pay $50-60 each for SPX hedging contract. I will have to buy more hedges tomorrow. Right now it's a matter of avoiding margin call.

Risk factors are at alarming level. Leverage is at 1.01 now. Margin ratio is at 39% but will drop drastically after this week's hedges expired tomorrow morning. The lack of discipline got me into trouble again.

Bulls Take A Breath 7-13-16

Market stayed up but within a half of one percent range. Fed Beige Book didn't produce much of reactions. Based on previous experience I would guess there will be another push higher at least before noon time as tomorrow is options monthly expiration day.

I rolled over  SPX 2120 and 2125 calls which were ITM. There are 3 RUT DITM calls didn't get filled. I will have to get it done tomorrow. It's going to be a tough and busy day tomorrow. I have couple calls near the money. I made eight trades today. I spent about 50% of the collected premiums ($420) to buy calls

Risk factors improved somewhat due to purchase of calls. Margin is at 35% up from 14% yesterday. I repeat the same mistake from January.

Squeeze Up Continues 7-11-16

The party continues after NFP report last Friday. SPX and RUT gained another 0.5 and 1% respectively. SPX closed at all ATH of 2143 while QQQ and RUT are still legging. There may be more energies to the upside. Bulls need to stay in the breakout area. However the last couple new highs were followed with sell off. Would it be different this time.

Made four orders today. Most of them were buying calls to reduce my margin. It kept getting squeezed. I realized that I made same mistakes on the call side repeatedly. I didn't wait for my levels of engagement. I often override my instincts of waiting. My patience is still not been engraved. Rather I have the desire of making some money every day. I am afraid of missing opportunities. I need to make changes of such mentality little by little on a daily basis.

Risk factors worsened. Net liq is down near $10K. Margin is at 15%, the lowest level since I started recording it. I will have to buy more calls tomorrow to hedge it.

Pop On Fed Minutes 7-6-16

Market tested lower in the morning then reversed up in anticipation of FOMC Minutes. Fed didn't it again giving up rate hiking on current events, such Brexit. Bulls took charge from here. The IHS of Brexit is in play.

Had 5 trades with rollover of SPX 2110 to 2125 next week. The other four were closing positions. Didn't get to sell any puts during the drive down in the morning. I followed my rules not to be aggressive on a big event day like today.

Risk factors continue to improve. Available margin is up to 40% from yesterday's 31%. I will be in Clemson for the next two days. Will monitor market from there with limited access.

A Sigh of Relief 7-5-15

Indices pulled back near 0.6-1.5% today. I got a big relief on margin. It's a normal pull back for bull so far. I tried to sell more puts but had only two orders filled. Had 7 trades with 2 new positions and the rest are hedges and closing positions. I will try to sell more put spreads tomorrow if we get more pull back.

Risk factors improved. Margin ratio is at 31% and leverage down to 56. Still more work to do. I need to roll over my SPX 2110 call to next week tomorrow since we have to go to Clemson's orientation the day after.

Holding Up 7-1-16

Indices end with 4th up day with smaller gains. SPX and RUT gained 3+% for the week. A very impressive turn around after two days' Brexit sell off.

I am paying the price of over loading positions. I still don't have a specific number to limit the number of open positions. My available margin was below $20K at one time today. Comparing it with over $100K two days ago. I had to spend over $50 to buy calls to bring my margin up to $40K at end. I rolled over my DITM RUT 1105, 1125 out to July 3 and collected some premiums. I need to stick to my rule of roll over whenever a position is At the Monday. I made 8 trades today mainly for rollover and reducing margins.

Risk factors are in bad shape. Available margin is at 23%, way below my safety line. Leverage is at 63. I will unload some SPY short next week to reduce my leverage.