Testing Lower 8-31-16

Indices tested lower end of their current balance areas. But buyers stepped in late afternoon pushing them back to the mid. It could be the funds window dressing at month end and awaiting for Friday's job report. Weekly MACD has shown some weakness while daily signals are choppy.

Made 9 trades today. Orders to close positions filed on both sides. The deep ITM RUT 1100 got rolled to 9/9 again. I don't even remember how I get into it. I bought 4 ratio hedges with small credits. There are 5 more positions to rollover this Friday. I may need more hedges for next week. I try to get most of my hedges cost free.

Risk profile improved even with a slightly down day. Margin is back above 50%. Leverage is at 94, far from my 40-50 target.

Holding Up 8-30-16

The indices held up well today. It's not look like a quick retest of the b/o area. I think the big trades are waiting for this Friday's job report. It may increase the chance of rate hike if the report is good. So good news could be bad news again or the other way around.

Had one rollover trade today. I was out to Anderson to close the unit. I have one RUT 1100 deep ITM bear call left to roll by tomorrow.

Risk profile is slightly better. Margin is at 43%. I have month end and weekly to roll for this week.

Monday Trending 8-28-16

Market had a small trending up day since open. It looks like the trades want to retest last Friday's high after Yellen's speech. SPX and RUT both closed +0.5%. They are still in this narrow range bound. It's hard to tell which way it will breakout.

Had six trades filled: 3 of them were position closing, 2 were bear call spread in RUT Oct 3 1330. 1 was ratio hedge with reversal to the call side. Nothing to write home about. Still waiting for a resolution by Mr. Market itself. The number of ITM positions have not changed in my IB acct. The acct is bearing 1000 negative delta although it's better than -1300 early last week. I may look into selling premiums of some ETFs and blue chip stocks to diversify my trading.

Risk profile was down some. Margin is at 38% and leverage is back above 100 again. Glad that I sold a small size of SPY short. It didn't hit my 2nd target. I have to go to Anderson to close the property tomorrow. I set up couple rollovers for Wednesday's month end contracts.

The Speech was Null At End 8-26-16

Yellen's speech was slightly hawkish but left plenty of room to back off. Market went through the usual three steps: drop, pop and drop more. It could be the other way around. At the end indices closed only slightly down except NQ had a small gain. Nothing was broken in terms of the current balance area.

Made 15 trades today. Sold 3 naked RUT and SPX puts into Oct 3 in Keith's style. Six exit orders were filled on both side. Sold 5 ratio hedges with 3 risk reversal twist. I made one error of ratio hedge with equal number of contracts. Luckily the SPX 2185 and 2190 bear calls were expired worthless and my size was reduced. My plan of not touching it until 2pm helped me stay calm during the volatile moves in the morning.

Risk profile stand well for the expiration weekend thanks to the downside shift and added hedges in puts. My portfolio has turned into profit of 10K again. Next week I should realized some of the fruit. I need to continue to enforce my rule of avoid letting positions slip ITM. otherwise it's very hard to roll deep ITM positions.

Waiting For Chair Yellen 8-25-16

The trading ranges were expanded a little more for indices today. Market explored to the downside but closed to unchanged. All eyes are on Chair Yellen's speech tomorrow morning. She is dovish in natural. I wouldn't know what market would react to her speech. It could take good news as bad news or the other way around. I just need to mind my risk control and for the weekend expiration.

Made 5 trades today, 2 of put closing, 2 ratio hedges and 1 SPY, Sept 3, 218 call rollover based on near the money rule. No any new position was added. I have two more near the money SPX bear calls to close or rollover tomorrow.

Risk profile went slightly lower, partially due to a $1500 payroll transfer out. Margin ratio is at 44%.

Cracking Down? 6-24-16

Indices pulled back today with some force. SPX and RUT had more than -0.5% on closing which is bigger than the average of last couple weeks. They both are back to their previous balance area. It still could be just retest the b/o point before thrust up again. Also trades are waiting for Yellen's speech this Friday. Although FED has been wish wash without a clear direction.

Made 14 trades cross all accounts today. Closed 3 near the money positions,  rolled over 4 ITM positions and bought hedging positions on both sides. Also sold 3 Sept 5 195 puts to cover the loss of Aug 4 220 calls. Feels over traded somewhat but collected $1800 premiums. I want to be more patient on my last two near the money SPX bear calls. I want to hold to the last day to see if I can get them off instead of rollover. Get to work on protecting put exposures tomorrow.

Some risk factors are back inline with today's pull back. Net liq is up about 10K at 160K, margin ratio at 52%. Of course the coming weekend and Yellen's speech could change the picture completely. All I can do and should do is to control my risk.

Still Contracting 8-22-16

Indices continued to stay in a small range bound. SPX has traded within 0.75% range for 14 days. It happened once in late July, the two longest small range since 1980. Something will give soon. I get to watch my exposure to the down side. I have many puts from rollover calls.

Made 7 trades today, including 3 ratio hedges, one rollover and closed couple puts. The rollover is based on my rule of stay out of ITM positions. My total ITM positions have not changed since beginning of Aug.

Risk profile is OK for now. Net liq is at 156K and margin at 38%. I will continue to buy hedges in both side to prepare for break out of either direction.

Bulls Won Again 8-18-16

Bulls held up well on this monthly expiration Thursday. SPX and RUT went back to the mid of their current balance area. BBs are in squeeze mode. We may see an retest highs again soon.

Made 8 trades with three ITM rollovers, closed couple of puts and added three ratio hedges. It was difficult rollover since the range was small. MM won't fill orders even though I went through mid of bid and ask several times. The deep ITM RUT 1100 rollover didn't get filled until cash closed with a $20 negative premium.

Risk profile is OK for my out of town tomorrow and over the weekend unless something dramatically happens. Net liq made a low of $154K after rollover those ITM positions. Margin is at 50%. I will monitor my profile on the road tomorrow.

Can't Push The Bull's Head Down 8-17-16

Indices pulled down to the mid of BB in the morning session. Bulls push it back before and after the Fed Minutes release. It appears that Fed members are divided on the rate hike. Fed is loosing its credibility on not following its own plan. SPX closed back in positive territory while RUT couldn't recovery fully. When the market couldn't be pushed down then it will stay up or break out to the upside.

Made four trades today. Closed RUT 1240 put and rolled SPX 2140 which is deep in the money. Luckily I collected some decent premiums. The other two were ratio hedging. There are three more ITM and ATM positions I have to roll or close tomorrow.

Risk profile stayed about the same. Margin ratio is at 50% and leverage at 104. I may have to buy more of hedge for next week since there are 2-3 rollovers tomorrow.

New Highs Again 8-15-16

Indices had a small gap up as CL advanced overnight. They could not even close the small gap after open indicating the sentiment is still bullish. The initial target of ES 2190 was reached in morning session. I expect a 2200 and beyond would be the real test before or after this week's FOMC. I would expect some pull back before or after the FOMC. Of course it didn't happen during July's FED meeting.

Made 4 trades today. Three of them were hedging. I made another mistake of forgetting the minus sign for a ratio risk reversal hedging. I don't have any new positions. Made one near the money rollover and collected $140 premium. My main task is to survive this draw down. It has been painful and prolonged.

Net liq set another new low of 148K. It would threat my portfolio margin if it drop another 20K. Margin ratio is down to 28% and leverage is up to 118 which is the highest on my records. I need to figure out a way to reduce my ITM bear call positions in the next couple days before I go off to Chapel Hill this Friday.

New Highs Again 8-11-16

Market has not had more than two down days and since Brexist. Indices turned up making new highs again today. Bulls bid up every pull back. My accts gave back more than yesterday's gain. It looks like 2190-2210 is still SPX target for this run.

Made 12 trades across all of my accounts. 4 of them were rollover ITM calls. The others were hedging margins except one closing put. I have to go to Clemson tomorrow. I bought more calls today just in case.

Risk profile is OK for today but will get thrown off again after the weekend. Margin is at 48, Net liq is down to $154K again.

A Topping? 8-10-16

I was taking care of things for moving to Anderson in the last two days. Indices held up well in a small range My portfolio were under more pressure on Monday and Tuesday. SYX formed a doji yesterday. It had a 10 point range to the down side today. RUT closed -0.68% which was pretty good for the summer slump.

I rolled most of ITM calls out to Aug 4 and 5 today. I have to get everything out of the way by end of tomorrow since I need to go to Clemson this Friday. There were 8 trades today, two ratio hedges on put side because I have too many naked puts due to the rollover of calls. I rolled 4 ITM calls in both SPX and RUT. I reduced one ITM call for SPX by buying 2 back and sell one further out call to cover it while collected a small premiums.

Risk profile is finally back in line at least until this Friday. Margin is back to 50% for the first time since end of June. Leverage is at 99. I am going to sell these SPY shorts gradually at different support levels to stop my losses. The bull flags of indices are not broken yet on daily charts. I can't be too relaxed yet. I also have downside risk due to some naked puts. Be prepared for either directions. Let's see if we will get a follow through for another down day.

Another Blow Out Job Report 8-5-16

NFP came out at 255K v.s. 180K expected. It was a strong number 2 months in a roll. Market reacted positively. S&P made another all time high of 2183. RUT also made a high of 1231. It's about 60 points away from its all time high of 1292 from last May.

With this new leg up my accounts got squeezed further. Made 8 trades today. 4 of them were exit targets in puts. The other four were buying hedges on the call side in order to survive in margin requirement. My predicted available margin was below 10K. I am dancing on the edge of cliff. I may have to reduce the size of my my ITM calls by covert 2:1 at lower strike to bring my margin up next Monday.

Risk profile is at dangers level again. Net liq dropped to 155K, the lowest level on my records. Leverage reached 109, also the highest on my records. I have some near the money positions expiring next week. It's going to be a tough battle again unless we see some decent pull back soon.

Positioning for NFP 8-4-16

Market chopped around within yesterday's range but slightly to the up side. B band formed a squeeze formation in daily charts. Trades are awaiting for NFP tomorrow morning. VIX is at low of 13. We may see a break out from this narrow range, more likely to the up side since the down move was rejected two days ago. Of course it's all depends on the NFP number and how the big guys interpret it. Good news is bad news or bad news is good news.

Made five trades today. Three rollovers, one BTC put and one call hedge. I was trying to roll over all of my ITM and near TM positions. Then the real estate closing was delayed. So I left one more at the money position to roll tomorrow. Plus I may roll more positions depending on how market react to the NFP number.

Risk profile is about the same as yesterday except margin rate got up to 35% after rollovers and a hedge buy. I will buy more hedges as another Friday comes.

Checking Out Crime Scene 8-3-16

Indices went back to check out the crime scene as they often do. It may not be ready to break the balance area yet. SPX and RUT move back to 50-60% of their range from yesterday. Let's see what market will show us in the next couple of days.

I made four trades today. All of them were ratio hedges in both call and put sides. None of my rollover got filled. I have to get everything done by tomorrow just in case we will close the Northlake condo on Friday. I should start from the deep ITM positions first.

Net liq and margin both fall with the market inched up. Leverage is at 90 and margin down to 30% again. A big lesson of sizing. There are 8 calls ITM and 5 ATM as of today. That's too many for the size of my accts. I get to come up a better way to control and monitor my position sizing.

A Decent Relief 8-2-16

SPX and RUT made a decent pull back ranging from -0.63 to 1.36%. It's the largest range since early July. Both of them reached the lows of their current range. The ranges are not broken yet. If the bears keep knocking it we may see further down movement. Otherwise bulls may defend the lines here.

Made six trades today. Closed 2185 call with a small profit and released some margin. I also rolled out the deep ITM RUT 1100 put to Aug 3. This one is hopelessly under water. I just have to keep rolling it while collecting some premiums. Glad I bought some ratio hedge puts to protect the downside of my positions. Sold a naked Sept 2, RUT 1000 put to pay for a closing position.

Risk profile looks better today. Net liq improved and leverage is at 84. Margin is back to 41%. Finally got a positive unrealized $4000 profit. It's a lot better than the negative $20K.

August Effect? 8-1-16

Indices tried to break to the downside but still couldn't do it. A noticeable change of pattern is that indices closed to the lower side after a failed push up. However the tight ranges are intact and could break to either direction despite MACD is slightly closed to the downside. VIX is also low and no sigh of spike yet.

Made three trades today. Closed one SPY put and the rest of them were margin hedges. I was practicing patience today with a level of consciousness. I held off couple of rollovers for this week. I would wait for more decay if the prices stay in the range or go down a light more. Of course the risk is if and when the market goes up.

Risk profile recovered some from today's choppy. Available margin is off 12% to 32% due to expired hedges. Leverage is at 99. Neg liq increase $5.5K.