The Melt Up Continues 2-27-17

The same pattern of buy on any dip played out again today. After opening dip buyers showed up. SPX made a new high of 2371 although closed only up 0.10%. RUT gained 0.93% aiming at another new high soon. My estimated target for RUT is 1410-1420 after Trump's congressional address if that spark another surge. The urgent question is what I am going to do to reduce my margin and increase my net liq:

1, I can buy more OTM calls to reduce margin with risk reversal, etc.
2. Take a loss on IWM and, or SPY bear calls to help net liq;
3. Wire in more funds;
4. Take off a less damaging RUT bear call. The highest RUT ITM call will cost $6.6k to buy back but I may not have any other choices if RUT continues to grind up into a new range.

Made 4 trades today. Rolled 2 out of 3 of expiring positions. Luckily they got filled during a morning pull back. The other two orders were put exit.  I have a deep ITM 1310 to roll tomorrow. Tried to sell couple call spreads for clients but I would wait to do it if we get a new high on RUT.

Net liq got hit by 12K today. I have only 9K cushion left. I plan to wire another 10K in if RUT won't even take a breath tomorrow. Margin ration and funds lowered as well. I will buy more calls tomorrow.

Sellers Failed Again 2-24-17

Index futures dropped overnight with European market indicated a lower opening for the US markets. The same pattern of "down in the morning and up in the afternoon" played out again. SPX closed 3 points up and RUT closed 0.4 point down recovered about 10 point loses. When there are more buyers than sellers then the market would hold up. SPX appears stronger than RUT in terms of price action and indicators.

Made 13 trades. Sold couple late Mar put spreads for clients during the short period of down push. Sold one set SPX put spreads to pair with my Mar 3 deep ITM calls in ET. The rest of them were hedges and exit positions. Get to prepare for a possible up swing next week with the State Union announcing the new tax plan and other changes from the new administration.

Net liq stayed about the same since market closed basically unchanged. My margin ratio is adequate for the weekend at least. Need to try harder to learn a new directional strategy.

Is The Market Concerned Rate Hike? 2-23-17

It appears that market is not concerned about rate hike for now. DJ made its 10th consecutive positive day gaining another 800 points after breaking 20K. SPX closed barely up 1 point while NQ and RUT in red. RUT was down 0.7%  holding at lower part of its balance area. It may be setting up for another push higher like last couple times.

Made 13 trades today. Rolled out 3 more expiring calls luckily with RUT falling down. Sold a match pair puts for client to collect more premiums while his call side is under water. 8 trades were hedges. I bought some FB in my IB IRA to play a new high pull back and continuation up trend. I will do more hedges tomorrow.

Net liq gained 5.9K as RUT closed down 0.72%. It was down 1.2% intra day retested the bottom of the range. Margin ratio and excessive fund is back to pass this weekend. I am hedging it day by day and week by week.

A Pause On Fed Min 2-22-17

Market took a pause waiting for Fed min release today. It appears that a March rate hike is more likely from the Fed min. But bulls are not worried about anything right now. Every dip was met with buyers. RUT couldn't close a small gap from last Friday but only half way into it. SPX and RUT closed down 0.12 and 0.47% respectively. It has been more than 90 days without a 1% down day if I remember correct. Maybe market is waiting for the new tax plan and end of earning session? Then what? It's the late 90's all over again.

Made 10 trades today. Rolled out 4 ITM positions with one ITM SPX left to roll. Collected about $900 premiums, the best for the month. Sold 3 naked puts for a client under the assumption of the bull market won't end before this summer.

Net liq recovered about 5K. Margin ratio and available funds may be OK until this Friday. The post expiry excess is project -3K better than 20K last week. I will buy more hedges in the next 2 days to bring it back to safe level. It's the same struggle every week.

Bulls Still Strong 2-21-17

Bulls continue making new highs with Walmart and Hope Depot reported better earnings this morning. My draw down has no relief insight. There were some selling activities later this morning but bulls stepped in and closed near high of the day. I need to seriously look for a way to reduce my ITM positions. I haven't seen any sign of exhaustion on the bull side.

Made 7 trades today. Closed some puts and rolled SPY ITM 235 calls to extend the time for hedging. Tried to sell more bear calls for clients but no fill. Collected a small premium. The draw down is not only in the unrealized losses but also in the lost opportunities to collect premiums.

Net liq falls into danger zone again. There is barely 10K cushion left after a near 10K reduction today. Margin ratio and available funds are low after last week's expiration. I may have to wire another 10K in again tomorrow.

An Inside Day 2-16-17

Market took a breath today. SPX and RUT traded inside their ranges of yesterday. Both of them could not break yesterday's lows. Nothing has changed as far as sentiment and trend concerns. My account got a small break for today. My theses didn't play out. Market went down first until after lunch. Tomorrow may be up first then close lower before the long weekend.

Made 9 trades today. Rolled out my last ITM SPX calls in ET with some difficulty. I couldn't get filled for the week I wanted despite lower than mid price for the morning. It may be a volume issue. I felt pressure and anxious when my order couldn't get fill. I need to stay calm. I closed 2 SPX 2360 near the money calls after cash close to prevent a gap up overnight. I almost forgot this was monthly expiration and the price won't settle until tomorrow's open. There is about 13 point distance so I don't want to take any chance.

Net liq recovered from yesterday's loss. It's still not out of the woods yet. RUT may test prior range high again. Watch to see if it could fall back to that long narrow range. It all depends on the other majors I guess. All of my hedges turned the low post expiry up to 40K. It made margin to the put side. This may be a solution for the future: pay a small excess fee to release pressure on the opposite side. I will have to get more hedges tomorrow.  

Follow Through New Highs

The same pattern of overnight drop and RTH pop played out again. It looked a possible pull back this morning when market opened lower. Bulls took SPX and RUT to another ATHs in the afternoon exactly like yesterday. Tomorrow is index option expiration day. It could get a little volatile. The pattern could be a pop in the morning when big money want to maximize its profit and will let the market go in the afternoon. This could happen on Friday as individual stock options expiring. It's a relentless bull market. It appears SPX is building a new balance area firmly after 5 consecutive days of new highs.

Made 16 trades today. Rolled up some near and ITM calls to next week to reduce the expiring effect. Some put exit orders got filled. I sold couple more leg up bear calls for clients as new highs were made. Also rolled my last RUT ITM call in IB. I have one more left in ET to deal with tomorrow.

Net liq took another hit from +5.5K to -6.5K. I may have to make another wire tomorrow if market continues to grind up. I have 12K cushion left which I should only allow 6K to erode. I must buy more calls tomorrow even I brought projected excess from -20K to 1K. It's still not enough. I need 20K ecess liq for next Monday. I need to keep calm and stay relentless like the bulls.

Another Turn Around Tuesday 2-14-17

Market opened lower this morning nerves about Yellen's testimony in Congress. Her statement was a little more hawkish on raising rates. Then bank and financial sectors reacted positively. Market recovered its early losses and rally up until closing. All majors made another ATH, RUT is slightly behind up 0.3%. My hope of a little breath room vanished. It's likely RUT will make another new high this week to catch up with other majors. I am preparing more funds to shore off any further margin pressure. There is no any weakness showing right now.

Made 4 trades today. Rolled out my SPY weekly to void assignment. Most of my hedge orders didn't get filled except a small SPY. Sold another set of SPX Mar 5 bear call CS for client. Get to watch the upside risk in case the market continue melt up.

Net liq lost 6.3K today. I may be able to stand for for another 0.5-1% surge up with 18K cushion. Margin is predicting a deficit of 20K after expiry. I have to work hard to buy 8 RUT calls or more hedges tomorrow. It has been a tough 3 month for me. I am hanging on it right now.

ATHs for All Indexes 2-13-17

All major indices made new ATHs today including RUT. After a long time of consolidation this break out may have energy to establish a new trading range if current levels held. SPX had stronger price action than RUT. SPX gained 0.52% while RUT gave back 2/3 of gains, closing up 0.22%. It was a clear rejection on RUT's first break out attempt. Let's see if it will go back and hold its high.

It was a tough day for me. I had to wire 15k from ET to shore off my net liq as it fall below 110K mark. Luckily RUT fall back after made its new high. Made 4 trades today. Three hedges and one SPX March 5 bear call CS for a client. Made a price error again. Futures are pulling back a little more than usually. It has been the pattern of falling at night and raising in the day. One day it won't recover from the overnight fall.

Risk profile worsened after weekend expiration. I didn't get to buy calls today as they were all going up. I have the rest of the week to hedge the call side waiting for them to decay further.

New Highs Again 2-10-17

That raging bull is back. Indices gaped up again and kept pushing up. RUT is near making a new high while other majors made new record highs. It's just a matter of time for RUT to make 1400 from 1388.5 of today's closing. I need to prepare for the worst scenarios. My current net liq could stand no more than another 1% up. I may have to wire funds from ET on Monday.

Made 11 trades today. Sold some bear calls March and April for clients. I don't have any room for bear calls in my IB acct. Rolled my last ITM SPX call for this week. I executed my plan without much emotional interruptions. The rest of orders were hedges in both side.

Net liq took another hit of 10K. I have less than 10k room left for Monday. Margin ratio is OK as of today. Be prepared for market to push up for couple more days next week at least. VIX futures made a new low of $11 and changes. Hopefully a small reversal could come to rescue.  

Another Leg Up 2-9-17

Market got another shot from Trump's promise of tax reform announcement. All three indices break out made new highs. RUT popped 1.5% but still short of making ATH. I think it will catch up to the others. So far the highs are held. We may see a new trading range if no pull back soon. I am in a hot seat again.

Made 9 trades today. Rolled out 2 expiring RUT ITM calls and collected some premiums. Sold one call spread for a client. The rest of them were hedges and exiting put positions. I need to buy more calls tomorrw to hedge my margin for next week.

Net liq's lost 20K today. That leave the account with another 1.5% tolerance for the upside of RUT. I have to wire funds from ET or close small call positions if RUT continues push up which is likely at this point.

Bulls Still In Control 2-8-17

RUT pushed down right off the gate this morning. It went down 0.9% nearing current range low. But the other major indexes didn't follow. Then buyers stepped in to hold the range low. Another attempt to break the low failed then RUT gradually recovered most of loss before closing. The simple rule is that it will go up when it can't go down.  My risk is on the upside now. SPX has had 81 days without a 1% drop now.

Made 10 trades today. Finally was able to sell couple of RUT bull puts for my acct to end the record of no collections. Also rolled up couple ITM bear calls in RUT and IWM. Plus the routing of hedging for the last couple months.

Risk profile is steady after I took out 42K to pay business and personal credit card bills. I have two more days to add more margin hedges for next week. Tomorrow I will start to roll out couple of ITM calls in RUT and SPX expiring this week.

Holding and Waiting for What?

There is still no clear direction for SPX and RUT although DJ and NQ made new highs again today. The narrow range bound continues. From the charts SPX is more bullish than RUT. MACD on RUT weekly is about to cross down. But the bull flag pattern is still intact for both SPX and RUT. No sign of the up trend is broken even after a 0.5% p/b by RUT.

Made 8 trades. There were exits and hedges as it has been lately. Put sales didn't get filled. No premium collection is also a kind of loss. I will look for other symbols to trade once I get some breath room.

Risk profile is OK until end of this week. I don't see any bear call position likely off my book this week after one exit of SPX call last week.

Choppy For Two Months 2-2-17

A choppy day after FOMC. Indexes have stayed in the range for almost two months now. The new highs were knocked down and range lows were bought up. Something will give one way or another but no clue right now.

Another day went by without collecting premiums. Made 4 trades: one exit of SPY and three hedges to reduce margin and fees. I notice that my patience is getting thin and wanting actions. But my hands are tight with with these ITM positions. My IB account is still fragile to any upside moves. Better to be patience than sorry.

Risk profile is totally dragged by RUT's movement of about 12K for a 1% move. Margin is hedged up until tomorrow. I will have to buy more calls tomorrow to hedge for next week.

A None Event 2-1-17

Fed didn't raise the rate as expected. FOMC statement seems not disturb the market much any more. Indexes closed basically flat. SPX and RUT closed Monday's gap above in the morning then fall back The attempts of making new highs were rejected for now. Are we going to stay in range bound until the job report until Friday?

Made 5 trades today. 4 of them were hedges in IB. Sold one RUT Mar bear call CS for a client. It turned out to be a boring afternoon. Had another day without collecting premiums. 

Net liq recovered 2K while margin ratio dropped due to the month end expiration. I will have to continue to hedge for next week since the projected excess liquidity for next week is less than 20K as of today. Futures are falling so far near 05% tonight. Watch out down side risk. I will adjust my approach before tomorrow's open.