On The Way Down? 2-28-18

The market attempted go higher then failed. The daily price patterns changed from late after rally to selloff since yesterday. Another turn around Tuesday. SPX and RUT added another pertage of losses today. We may look at a trip to the balance lows. QQQ is holding better than the other indices, lossing only 0.5%.

Made 7 trades today. Sold couple RUT early April bull put sreads for my clients. I only rolled couple small cars of long calls before the sell off. I held back for selling more bull puts just in case I need to roll some existing positions.

Net liq recovered another 5K today. Margin ratio is up to 56%. The margin is switched to the put side now. I may have to flip around my ITM calls and puts to avoid margin drains.

Fed In Play Again 2-27-18

The new Fed Chairman, Powell talked about rate hiking regardless the market volatility. The market responded with a 1% pullback. VIX popped almost 18% to 18.6. The major indexes retreated from the balance area highs.

Made 16 trades with increased VIX. Sold some bull puts in small cars for clients. Also sold some put spreads for large cars. I rolled some ITM bear calls. Rolled some expiring long calls before the selloff. Collected $800 for a change.

Net liq recovered about 7K. The margin ratio is back to 50%. The margin is affecting both sides now. Will continue to hedge. 

Bulls Took Key Lines Of Defense 2-26-18

Bulls carried the torches further from last Friday. SPY, QQQ, and DIA advanced 1.3 - 1.8% and closed at their highs of the day. Technically speaking, QQQ crushed all of the Fib RT lines. It likely to make new highs. SPX, DIA, and RUT firmly broke their Fib 61.8% RT line and ready to challenge the last defense of Fib 76% RT. They are also close to the highs of their current balance areas.

Made 7 trades today. Our QQQ and some SPY long calls were put ITM. So I locked and rolled some QQQ and SPY this week to extend them out. My hedges were only filled on the long put side. Not many premiums were collected.

Net liq got hit again with the popup today. It's down to 117K now. Margin ratio is down to 35% and it's on the call side. I will try to put in more long call hedges in tomorrow.

The Third Day Of Pump & Drop 2-22-18

The market shrugged off the selloff from yesterday. It continued to push up to about 1% and retested the breakdown points. Just like yesterday, sellers came in the later afternoon. But most of the indices closed in positive territory. It was an inside day. The market seams building a base in the mid of recent ranges. It's hard to tell its directions in short term. However, MACD is turning up on daily.

Made 3 trades today. Rolled down an SPX pair for a client. I tried many different combinations to roll my SPX 2330 bear call. No fills. Have to do it regardless tomorrow. I have a RUT bull put of 1530 near the money. I will leave it until the afternoon and hope it will be exited.

Net liq is almost unchanged. Margin ratio is above 60% and it looks OK for this weekend. The margin is on the call side now. I don't see either side with a possibility of unwinding soon.

A Reversal Day On Fed Minutes

The market was pushing higher right off the gate. All the majors gained more than 1% before the release of Fed Minutes. There was another shot in the arm with the Fed minutes. Then 1 hour before the closing the stock indexes started falling. By the end of the session, they all closed in negative territories and the lows of the day. It's a reversal day that caused by 10 yr treasury rate rising to 2.95%. VIX also erased most of it loses and stayed at 20.

Made 16 trades today. The ACRX bull puts were closed on the morning pop. It was a double fill last month. We still hold some stocks under water. I rolled out most of the long calls in the small cars. Most of them are ATM or near TM. If we get another meaningful pullback they will lose out. I still couldn't roll out my SPX 2330 bear call. I may get a better chance tomorrow if the pullback continues. No much premiums were collected today.

Net liq recovered after the pullback. Margin ratio is at 65% and it switched to the call side now. I will add more hedges to both sides before the weekend. Puts have excess fees now.

Back In Ranges 2-20-18

Indices failed to hold their gains before closing. The loses are less than 1%. All the majors are in their balance areas. VIX is still at 20. Bond rate is holding 2.9%. MACD daily is turning up. We may stay in current ranges for a while.

Made 6 trades. I only made hedges without getting any premiums. Rolled couple SPY calls for clients. Nothing else is happening. Be patient for the days without collecting premiums.

Net liq is in range of 125K. I sent another 5K to ET. They charge 8% interest. I want to reduce the cost whenever I can. Margin ratio is at 68%. It may be OK for this week.

Back To Raging Bulls Again? 2-15-18

Bulls continued to run following the reversal of yesterday. Inflation and higher rates are no concerns for now. RUT, SPX gained 1% while QQQ added more than 2% at closing. But VIX didn't give up much of its ground. It's still at near 20. Both SPX and RUT crossed their 50% RT lines without much resistances. They both closed below their Fib 62% lines today. Tomorrow is stocks monthly expiration day. Bulls may push hard to maximize their profits.

Made 6 trades only today. No more selling of calls. I realized that I sold these bear calls too early yesterday. I will let the bulls run a little further before taking another stab. Rolled couple ITM QQQ long calls. These are my survived long calls. Took off couple RUT bull puts to reduce margins for my clients.

Net liq suffered 5K from this bull run today. Margin ratio is still above 60 and expect going through the weekend fine. Margin is switched to bear call side. But not much room to reverse positions to bull put either. I need to figure out something better hedge the ITM bull puts. They take up too much margin.

A Surprise Reversal On Higher CPI 2-14-18

The nervoursely anticipated CPI came out higher than expected (+0.3% vs +0.2%) for January at 8:30 AM. Stock futures dropped 1% after the news. I expected the selloff to continue since the recent correction was inflation related. The prices recovered more than a half before market open. After the  struggles of bulls and bears market turned up to the positive territory. The three majors gained 1.3-1.9% at closing. VIX dropped 23% and closed at 19. It looks like the fear of inflation is under control so far. Technically the majors have only pulled back to their 50% retrencement. At the Fib levels there could be another round of selling.

Made 10 trades today. Sold some RUT and SPX late March calls for my clients on the push up. I didn't take them for my account due to concerns of margin. I already have too many bear calls. The rest of them were hedges and exiting positions.

Net liq didn't change much. Margin is till on the put side and the ratio is above 60% now. It's monthly expiry tomorrow. Expect some pushing around. I have a SPX near the money put to watch. Will try to close it instead roll out.

A Broken Record Of Reporting New Highs 1-23-18

The indices set new all-time highs again following good earnings reports. Any small pullback has met with buyers.  It could be that big money is positioning for the upcoming infrastructure proposal. This month has set new high records so far.

Made 8 trades today. Closed BABA put calls across the board. Continued to lock and roll these ITM small cars. I applied some FIB extensions and percentage projections in my plan of reversing bear calls to bull puts. It's difficult in terms of margin requirement but I have to do it. RUT just broke out to a new high and it may surge further in a new balanced area. RVX is raising in a divergent manner.

Net liq stayed above 115K. Margin ratio is at 57%.  Leverage at 580 is still a concern.

An Inside Day 2-13-18

The major indices closed up slightly for the third day in a raw. They traded within the ranges of yesterday. VIX is still elevated near 25. It appears the market is waiting for CPI report tomorrow. The inflation concern was said one of the reasons for the selloff last week. Technically the 200 SMA may need a retest at some point. Also, the recent breakdown points above have not been breached either.

Made 12 trades today. Rolled the IWM ITM puts from this week to next month. It wasn't a patient trade. I was concerned the risk of assignment. I left an order of rolling an SPX ITM long put of March last night. It got filled this morning. It is a mistake. The rest of the trades were hedgings and closing positions.

Net liq is holding above 130K. Margin ratio is back to 50% too. My portfolio is slightly long and delta positive. I may have to adjust it down a little.

Following Up 2-12-18

The major indices continued their recovery after the 200 SMA reversal last Friday. RUT is the leger with 0.8% gain. The others had 1-1.8% gain. The gains are impressive but not decisive. They are still inside the big down thrust bar of last Thursday. So far they appear in reestablishing a balance area below the highs of January. Will see if they can hold these areas. Bears may be waiting above for another attack.

Made 12 trades today. Most of them were just moving positions around to hedge for about two weeks. No new positions added. VIX is still above 25. That's concerning.

Net liq recovered 9K and is above 130K. Margin ratio is at 50%. It's still vulnerable to another 2%-3% selloff. My concern is that I don't have any ITM position near expiry.

The Bottom Appears Broken 2-8-18

A retest of the Monday low was expected but rather came quicker than I thought. I also expected a higher chance that the retest would be successful giving that a long tail candle bar from Monday night to Tuesday. Until the last hour of the session, the bottoms of the major indexes were falling off. The US stock indexes closed down 3-4% and broken the regular day sessions lows but still holding their balance lows. The only lows have not been breached are the futures tails from Monday night. US stock indexes are officially in their 10% correction territory now after 2 years of a relentless run. It appears it's not over yet.

Made 9 trades. I rolled couple near the money positions for my clients. I finally reversed a RUT ITM bull put back to lower strikes of both a call and put. That release some margin pressure from the put side. I may have to reverse another one if I am under more pressure tomorrow. I have to roll a couple of near TM RUTs tomorrow.

Net liq is down to 122k now. Margin ratio is still above 50% for now. It may be further reduced after the weekend expiries. I will work on margin and positions tomorrow.

VIX Is Still Elevated 2-7-18

It was expected that the market would consolidate after the big swing of the last two days. Buyers carried the touch from yesterday in the early session. Then sellers stepped in during the last hour and pushed the majors into the red for the day. SPX and RUT are contained in their current balance areas. If that is the case then there may be another test of the lows of this Monday or even further down to the lows of the balance areas. Treasury yield above 2.8% is bothering the market. Another possible government shut down is looming. These could be the catalysts to rattle investors. VIX is still at 27. It tripled from 9 in early January.

Made 10 trades today. Nothing major happened. I tried to save some small car long calls in the morning. Also tried different configurations to lower my ITM bull calls. I plan to replace and roll out some near TM bull puts for clients.

Net liq is at 130K after I transferred 5K back to ET. Margin ratio is at 70% and the weight is on the put side.

A Scary Day 2-6-18

It was called Black Monday yesterday. The market was gapped down but nothing terribly bad in the morning. QQQ even went green for a while after closing its gap. In the afternoon Dow started falling hard. It was down 1500 points, about 6% at one point. Then all the majors were falling like rocks. Buyers stepped in couple times but couldn't hold for long. It appears that selling programs were in control. All the majors closed down more than 3.5%. It was a bloodbath. My net liq was pushed below 100K and put on restrictive status. I was working hard in looking for ways to deleverage my positions last night. So I didn't write my journal yesterday. I thought I was going to get margin calls today.

Made 14 trades today. I planned to sell most of my index ETFs to release some margin premarket just in case I got forced liquidation. So I sold all of my SPY, QQQ, and IWM. Luckily market didn't follow through the selling early last night. I borrowed 20K from ET to add to my account. It was a hairy moment last night. Rolled some positions for myself and my clients too.

Net liq recovered 15K, plus the 20K from ET. I am OK for now. Margin ratio is above 90%. The question is how do I unwind my ITM positions on both sides. My last two risk reversal in RUT and SPX appeared too early. They almost choked my account during this sudden selloff. 

Bull/Bear Pulling 2-1-18

Bulls and bears were pulling each other from overnight to end of the day session. Indices futures were up last night nicely and down near 0.5% when I woke up this morning. Then they were up and down throughout the day. All of the majors closed above water except QQQ. With AAPL and AMZN reported beating estimates after hour QQQ may set to run up. Overall the pullback may not be over yet based on MACD. 

Made 7 trades. Rolled all the expiring small cars out. I have one more RUT bear call left for tomorrow. Nothing major happened. It's the first day of Feb.

Net liq actually dropped partially due to the negative delta in options and stocks such as QCOM and HD pullback. The margin is still on the put side. I still don't have enough room to make another RUT RR.