Bottoms Held 3-29-18

Today happened to be the last trading day of the month and quarter. The major indexes held their lows for the week and reversed from there, gaining roughly 1% and setting on top of yesterday's highs. It's possible for the typical window dressing. We can issue the bottom is in if the lows are held by next week.

Made 9 trades today. Closed some QQQ long puts for my clients before the late reversal happened. I was mainly working on hedging my margins to prevent the shortfall for the weekend. No premiums were collected for me.

Net liq is above 120K as the rangebound continues. The margin ratio is above 50% after today's hedges. My problem is that I don't have any ITM positions near exiting for possibly 1-2 month.

Holding At The Bottom 3-28-18

The market couldn't go anywhere today. Bulls and bears kept it in a narrow range except for NASDAQ which moved lower by about 1%. It's hard to tell where the market is going in near term. Another push down to retest the Feb lows or the higher lows at current levels may be what we can get.

Made 18 trades today. I placed directional orders in the small cars on both sides. My plan is to catch the next move in different time frames. I need to be flexible with my exit plans, either take profit in different levels or quickly stop losses.

Net liq is almost unchanged. The margin ratio is above 60% but predicted much lower for the weekend. I have to bring it tomorrow as this Friday is a none trading day.

A Quick Retest Lows 3-27-18

The market tried to follow through the big bounces of yesterday. Bulls held the lines during the morning session. NASDAQ gave up first without any major news. It made an engulfing reversal from yesterday's 3.3% gain. The other majors reversed to yesterday's lows as well. If the bottoms don't hold overnight we may see a gap down tomorrow morning. The pullback may continue.

Made 16 trades today. My early assumption for today was range consolidation. I was making position adjustments and hedges in the morning. In the afternoon pullback, I thought it would be a halfway retest of yesterday's big surge. The market finally showed its true intention during the last hour of the session. I took off some of my QQQ puts to cover the costs and made double and triple returns in a day. Of course, one contract wouldn't make a big difference. I am learning to place directional bets. I didn't place my planned reversal orders due to the margin requirement. I may do it tomorrow if it's within my buying power and I could hedge part of the margin.

Net liq stayed in current 120K range. Margin ratio is above 70% with 50% buying power. That may leave me some room to do an RR trade. 

A Dead Cat Bounce? 3-26-18

The futures popped up overnight and continued holding gains after opening as the trade war tension easied. QQQ led the reversal today. It closed up 3.9% while the other majors gained more than 2%. The next resistance levels would be the Fib 50, 61.8 and the breakout point for the majors. The Feb low test would be completed if these levels are breached. Keep in mind it's still a bull market.

Made 15 trades today. Rolled some ITM  small car bull puts based on my rules. Sold couple of naked bear calls for the clients as I didn't expect it would be such strong reversal. I will manage the positions accordingly. I tried to reverse my SPX and RUT bull puts to bear calls in attempts to exit and reduce my position sizes if we get another leg down. But the margin requirement is too high for me to place the orders. I will see if it changes when the indices go up further tomorrow.

Net liq increased 2K mainly from the bull puts. Margin ratio is above 70% for now and it switched to the call side now. I have a RUT 1360 ITM bear call to roll for this week.

The 2% Selloff Continued 3-23-18

My main anticipation was range-bound price actions for today. The market acted like it until the last hour of the day. It sold off again toward the end of the session shelving off another 2% or more on the major indexes. The price action shows that the retest of Feb lows is likely to happen.

Made 5 trades today. It took me the most of the day to roll the expiring SPX 2750 ITM put. I missed my plan of reversing it to the bear call side in the morning. Then the price kept falling. Also the margin requirement kept me to switch side aggressively. I ended up to give up 5 points to roll it to next week. My hesitation caused me two days in a raw. Luckily I rolled two ITM bear calls without adding put spreads and collected decent premiums.

Net liq didn't gain any ground since my bull puts are underwater now. The margin ratio is above 50% for the weekend. I will have to deal with some of the ITM small cars on the put side next week. It was a frustrating week for me.

The Selloff On Trade War With China 3-22-18

The news of that the US hit China with a $60 billion tariffs made the market nervous. It was an orderly pullback until the last hour. The bottom just fell out.  Most of the major indexes closed down 2.5%. It may be the starting of retest Feb lows.

Made 13 trades. I sold some late April and early May bull put spreads for my clients. Also tried to buy puts in IWM when it was legging the other majors. I wasn't patient enough waiting for it to double. I didn't follow my pre-market plan to reverse my SPX 2750 from bull put to bear call. My fear of being wrong or wanting a better price caused a loss of opportunity. I will do it on a pop tomorrow.

Net liq increased 2K limited by these ITM bull puts. Margin ratio is above 60% at least for tomorrow. Will continue to hedge the put side.

Fed Hiked 0.25% Rate 3-21-18

The much-anticipated rate hike happened the market ended up flat after pop and drop. The market may need a little more time to digest the impact of this rate hike. The trade war with China may cause volatility in the market. 

Made 10 trades today. SPX just couldn't get close to 2750 so I rolled my 2755 to 2750 for this Friday. The rest of the orders were hedging for today's event. I tried to play directional options but didn't play out.

Net liq stayed about the same. The margin ratio is above 60% but I need to raise it if I can't close the 2750 P before this Friday.

Awaiting For FOMC 3-20-18

The market is in waiting mode for tomorrow's FOMC. The only QQQ made about 0.4% gain. SPY and IWM both closed flat. It's expected that FOMC would raise the 0.25% rate tomorrow. What message the Fed would release is more important for the market. It will be volatile after the release for sure.

Made 1 trade for a client's IWM roll out. I placed many hedge trades in both directions but none of them was filled. I have an SPX 2755 long put expiring tomorrow.

Net liq stayed in the range. The margin ratio is above 60%. Obviously, no trade, no premiums. 

Gaped Down On Monday

The US market gaped down led by the news of FB misused user data. NASDAQ was down near 3% at one point but closed -2.3%. I think the underlining reason is more of the FOMC meeting this Wednesday.

Made 15 trades today. Sold late April bull put spreads for the clients. I rolled my last RUT 1350 ITM bear call with a put spread. My last SPX 2755 put was dropped deep ITM by today's selloff. It was the first time that I used the Monday expiry. So I had to roll it to the same strike for this Wednesday for a $120 premium. I am not sure how the market will react to FOMC. I will have to roll it to this Friday if it's still underwater after FOMC. The rest of my orders were hedges.

Net liq stayed above 115K. Delta is neutral so that Net liq didn't gain much on today's selloff. Margin ratio is at 68% and weights on the put side.  I want to hold my RR after Wednesday's FOMC to get a better sense of the market direction.

Range bound Market 3-16-18

The indexes chopped around on this quad witch Friday. The big money is likely positioning for the FOMC rate decision next Wednesday. RUT recovered from yesterday's loss holding on the lower trendline. SPX gave back most of its gains while QQQ closed slightly lower.

Made 4 trades today. I couldn't close that SPX 2760 ITM bull put and had to roll it to next Monday's 2755. I plan to close it before next Wednesday' FOMC meeting but it takes a lot of margins. No trade for the clients. I bought 3 more SPX put hedges.

Net liq stayed the same. The margin ratio is fine for this weekend. IB's prediction for the available funds is not accurate. 

Index Divergence 2-15-18

The stock indexes have shown divergencies between small and large caps. DIA and SPY advanced while RUT continues to slide in small measures in terms of their percentage changes of less than 1%. It's still a range bound market. Bulls are holding the trend.

Made 10 trades today. Rolled one ITM RUT 1210 call to advance a mere 5 pts. Also moved my SPX 3200 ITM bull put the to end of April and collected some premiums. Sold a couple of RUT April bull puts for clients. I have to same my margin for rollings. The rest of the trades were hedgings and closing positions.

Net liq gained 2K ground. The margin ratio is boosted by the hedges. I have an SPX 2760 bull put to roll or close by tomorrow. 

2nd Down Day 3-14-18

The market continued moving to the downside despite several attempts by buyers. All the majors except DIA (-1%) pulled back about 0.5% within their balance areas. It still looks like a base building unless the balance lows are broken. QQQ is holding up in its new high territory. That is a clue.

Made 9 trades today. Rolled all of my small cars long calls out in hope of catching another bounce. I put in a couple of RUT and SPX hedging calls for the next two weeks. No premiums collected since the margin is on the put side now.

Net liq gained 2k and climbed above shaky ground of 110K. The margin ratio is at 60%. The projection is weak for this weekend expiry.

Turn Around Tuesday 3-13-18

The market opened higher but turned down in the afternoon. It appeared to be an outside reversal day for SPX, RUT, and Nasdaq. However, they are still in their current balance ranges. Which way will the market break it's hard to say? FOMC meeting next week will be soon in focus.

Made 14 trades today. I sold my last ITM IWM long call of this week with about $280 profit. I used 1/3 of the profit to buy RUT OTM hedges. I found it's better than keep rolling the options risking pullback and decays. I also made a RUT ITM reversal from bear call to bull put. It relieved some pressure on the bear call side. I wasn't patient enough in the morning. I was afraid of the market would have continued to push up. I missed a better opportunity late on.

Net liq stayed about the same after my RUT reversal trade. I may have to another reversal trade depending on the direction of the market. Margin ratio is above 60% for now. I am adjusting it day by day now.

Holding Up For Another Break Out?

The indexes held up well today after the 1.5-2% break out powered by the better than expected job report. QQQ already made an ATH last Friday. SPX and RUT are close to erasing all of their losses from Feb correction. New high may follow if sellers can't defend the breakdown point of Feb.

Made 6 trades today. I rolled this week's ITM small cars to lock and roll the positions. Sold DIA bull puts for clients for scalping.

Net liq went down to 101K this morning. I had to wire another 10K to keep my net liq above water. It's getting dangers as my borrowing sources are draining down. I need to make another risk reversal trade in RUT.

Awaiting For NFP 3-8-18

The market chopped around waiting for tomorrow morning's NFP report. It's a major economic indicator that affects the market. How the market interprets the NFP is unpredictable. Often a good news can be bad or a bad news can be good for the market.

Made 16 trades today. I spend $100 to bring the margin up to the safe level for the weekend. It will be better if I can add more hedges tomorrow. Sold couple RUT bull put credit spreads for the clients. I didn't get any premiums again.

Net liq is barely above 110K. The margin ratio is up to 60%. But the available funds are relatively low. I don't have any ITM positions to roll this week.

Small Cap Leading The Bulls 3-7-18

The fear of Gary Cohn resignation as Economic Advisor of the White House didn't last long. As the downdrift faded in the morning session RUT/IWM led the bounce. The major stock indexes recovered their losses from overnight except the small-cap gained nearly another percent, logged its 4th consecutive days of large gains.

Made 14 trades today. Sold DIA naked bull puts and SPX put spreads in the early weakness for the clients. I only traded hedges for myself. I may have to do switch bear call to bull put in RUT again.

Net liq was nacked down again as RUT stayed strong. The margin ratio is lowered as well. The weekend projected margin and available funds slide into negative territory. I will have to buy more hedges to fend it off during the next two days.

Three Days In A Row 3-6-17

The indexes grind up for the third day in a row. The fear of a trade war in steel and aluminum has quickly faded. Dip buyers are active but no major resistance lines are broken yet. The news of Gary Cohn resigning from the administration sunken the futures for about 1%. Will see how it plays out overnight. The effect may be short-lived.

 Made 6 trades again. I only rolled some near-term positions. Tried to sell some naked calls in indices for my clients but no fills. I may sell some bull puts tomorrow if the selloff is not too bad overnight.

Net liq suffered again. The margin ratio is at 40% but should be ok for the next day or two. It may be switched to the put side with the overnight price drop.

Another Reversal Up Day 3-5-18

The index futures were lower overnight. They opened in negative territory this morning as well. Similar to the pattern of last Friday, they finally broke out to the upside with 1% gains in most of the indices. The high and low of their current balances have been tested so far. Most of them are parked in the mid of their balance areas except NQ/QQQ which is on top of its range. FOMC will be in play in next 2-3 weeks.

Made 6 trades and no premiums collected. I flipped our QQQ and SPY from puts to call again. I realized that I made panic trades when I flipped them from calls to puts last Friday. The price pattern changed from pop and drop to drop and pop last Friday.

Net liq gave back 3K with today's pop. The margin ratio is at 40% after the weekend expirations. I need to buy more calls to hedge it.

Fears For Trade Wars 3-1-18

The market got spooked with the imposing tariffs of imported steel and aluminum by the US. The major indexes lost another percentage point after the news. The only exception is the small cap. It took back most of its lost ground. It seems that technical levels often coincide with some major economic news. This pullback reached 50% levels from recent lows to highs. We may see further test below.

Made 10 trades today. I was able to roll up all of my next week's ITM bear calls. Timing and configurations weren't good for some of them. I brought down my SPX ITM bull put. Bought March IWM put to hedge this pullback for clients. I finally collected $750 premiums and transferred 5K back to ET. I am still deep in a hole over that side.

Net liq got another relief but it's near the edge of the end. The margin ratio is still above 50% and on the put side now. I have to deal with one RUT 1520 bull put ATM expiring tomorrow. Most of my small car long calls are hopelessly OTM.