Lower Highs & Higher Lowers 4-30-18

The bulls couldn't keep the market up for the last day of the month. It gave back all of the overnight gains. Although the losses are less than 1% for all of the majors they closed near their lows of the day. The majors are forming a wedge with lower highs and higher lows on daily charts. MACDs are turning lower too. I don't think there will be a major break out until This Wednesday's FOMC and Friday's NFP.

Made 20 trades. A half of them were exit orders. I mainly rolled out these ETF calls since they were losing values and near expirations. I don't plan to make major trades before FOMC even though the market doesn't expect the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting.

Net liq is still at 123K range. Margin ratio is above 60%. The month-end expiration could bring it down somewhat. The margin is switched to the call side now. I will add hedges tomorrow.

A Weak Rally 4-27-18

The excitements of yesterday's rally and AMZN report faded in a couple of hours after today's opening. The indices closed flat. It's hard to tell what's in the bag for next week. I am positioned on both sides so far.

Made 6 trades today. Finally rolled out the two ITM bear calls of this week. Had to give up some prices to MM. Booked some profits for clients. Not much to write home about.

Net liq gained another 2K. The margin ratio is above 50% but the prediction wad changed after closing. It may have something to do with the monthly expiration on Monday's expirations.

Break Out Above 4-26-18

The majors broke out to the upside after the morning gap up. FB popped 10% on better than expected earnings. QQQ closed up 2% while the other majors gained 1% except for RUT adding 0.5%. AMZN reported a bigger beat after the hour today. It may be another trending up day tomorrow. I remember that I reminded myself to not flip my small car calls yesterday but I decided to follow the MACD. This time may be an exception of MACD as an indicator.

Made 19 trades today. 8 of them were exit orders. I was only able to roll over one of my three ITM positions for this week. Also rolled up a couple of my ETF long pairs with some profits.

Net liq increased 4K with today's pop. I sent 5K back to ET to reduce margin interests. The margin ratio is at 59%. The predicted Excess is fine without rolling the two ITM calls. The futures are pulling back 0.3-0.5% as of this writing. It's going to be a battle tomorrow.

Tug of War 4-25-18

It was another choppy day. The bulls and bears were pulling between the zero lines. We may see the market bounce very soon since the bulls defended their lines. It hard to tell the direction of the market near term since the good earnings session hasn't lifted the market.

Made 12 trades. I placed bets in both directions with small cars for the next 2-3 weeks. I covered the costs of my earlier calls. Also exited some bull puts and extended my hedges. Nothing exciting. Waiting for the market to tell its next move. The rate is still a major concern.

Net liq added 1.3K. The margin ratio is above 50%. So far the margin is predicted sufficiently for the weekend. But I have 3 ITM bear calls to rollout in the next two days.   

Broken Down 4-24-18

Nasdaq led the market down despite better than expected earnings reports so far. QQQ had a big selloff closing down 2%. RUT is the lest damaged. Most of the majors' MACD start to cross down. I will consider playing put side now.

Made 15 trades today. I recovered some of my long call costs. Also took a stop loss for my yesterday's QQQ long call. Sold some SPX end May and early June bull puts spreads. I also rolled down a couple of RUT ITM long puts. They carry a lot of margin now.  The market is in a large range bound with downside pressure. I plan to sell bear calls on a bounce for my clients.

Net liq gave back a little. The margin ratio is below 50%. Will wait to see what weekend predictions are.

A Hesitated Market 4-23-18

All of the majors traded inside the ranges of last Friday. Both bulls and bears failed to gain an up hand. The indexes closed flat. It's a heavy earnings report week. Google didn't inspire the market in its report after the close. 

Made 13 trades. Most of them were hedges and exit orders. I bought a set of RR/CS ITM in QQQ to play the earning for this week. I have a couple of rollouts to do this week. I am waiting for a decent pullback. We may see a breakdown if the earnings session doesn't produce an upside breakout. The 10 yr rate is near 3% which may be the pressure of the market.

Net liq stayed in the range. The margin ratio is at 61% after the weekend expiries.

2nd Down Day 4-20-18

It's unusual to see a down day on a monthly expiration Friday. The market was under pressure. Several recovery attempts were knocked down by the very end of the day. The market is rangebound so far except RUT got into a new balance area. The small cap is often a leading force. Will watch if it would lead or drag down by the rest of the market next week.

Made 17 trades today. Many of my exit short call orders for this expiring day were hit during the selloff. I was expecting a bounce for the Friday. Sold some QQQ late May bull puts since it's the weakest one. I tried to lock and roll some of QQQ and SPY long calls but didn't get filled.

Net liq is no change. My portfolio is basically delta neutral but no immediate relief in sight. The margin ratio is down to 41%. It's predicted to recover after the expiration tonight. It probably rinses and repeats for next week.   

A Bump In The Head 4-19-18

The market pulled back a little more than a half percent as the majors running into the overhead resistance levels. These are the top of their current balance areas. The fundamental reason for today's pullback was the rising bond rate nearing the magic 3%. It's often the case that fundamental related news often coincides with technical levels. Don't know if the resistance levels would hold.

Made 9 trades today. I had to roll my ITM SPX 2750 bull put since it was unlikely it will expire OTM by tomorrow. Sold some SPX bull put spreads for my clients. I am making more money for them than for myself now since I am stuck in the mud now. Have a couple of bear calls in small cars to roll or close tomorrow.

Net liq gave back 1.3K on this small pullback. The margin ratio is at 58% after I bought an SPX put hedge. My delta is slightly long but both sides are deep in the money. I expect one RUT 1510 to be off the list by end of next week.

Three Green Days In A Raw 4-18-18

The market continued to push up. Although giving back most of their gains the majors still closed in green. They are near the top of their current balance areas now. It's hard to tell if they would break into new balances areas or even new highs. RUT is the most likely one to do so.

Made 10 trades. I entered a new bull call spread in QQQ based on my thesis of upward potentials. Also, locked and rolled some small cars for clients. I bought a couple of hedges for this weekend.

Net liq gained a little back. The margin ratio is at 45% but needs a boost for this weekend. Tomorrow is the index monthly expiration. I rolled my deep ITM RUT out already. Have some positions to deal with for Friday's expiration.

Bulls Charging Up 4-17-18

Bulls continued their push energized by good earnings reports. NASDAQ closed up 2% and the other majors gained at least 1%. RUT/IWM is closest to its ATH. SPX has more hurdles above.

Made 3 trades only. There were mainly adjustments to my positions. No trades were filled for my clients. My thesis for the market was right but I didn't come up with a good plan to follow the market. I will work on shorter-term directional trades for quick scalp or stop loss.

Net liq fall 0.8K. My room to the upside is tipping over. Margin ratio is at 47%. I will deal with hedges towards the end of this week.

The Bulls Are Back 4-16-18

The futures jumped higher on Sunday night after the strikes to Syria didn't cause much of panics around the world. The US indexes gained near 1% by closing. The three majors are on the upper part of their current balance areas now. There are still rooms to go up further before strong resistance areas.

Made 10 trades today. I was mainly working to cover the cost of lock in some profits in the small cars. I closed my first VXX put spreads with a nice profit. It falls pretty hard today.

Neg liq stayed at 125K level. It may soon tip over to the call side if the advance continues. The margin ratio opened lower this week but should be fine until late part of this week.

A Weak Rally Ended In Red 4-13-18

It's Friday again. The index futures erased overnight losses before the RTH began. The market didn't get much boost with the big banks' good earnings reports. XLF fall 1.5%. The expected rally turned out to be a red day. The concern of Syria situation proven to be true after the US launched air strikes tonight. It's not clear how Russia will act upon it which will greatly affect the market on Sunday night. Are we going to see another leg down due to the geopolitical risk and poor reaction to earnings? 

Made 8 trades today. Sold couple of RUT end May bull put spreads for clients on the weakness of this afternoon. Bought more hedges for my portfolio. My margin should be OK for this weekend.

Net liq inched up 1.5K. My margin ratio is above 50%.  I still don't have any ITM position near an exit until end of this month.

A Firm Up Day 4-12-18

The market had another up day, booking three positive days in a row. There are still some rooms to the upside of the current balance areas for SPX, QQQ, and RUT. Geopolitical risk is still present. Will watch my risk on both sides.

Made 8 trades today. All of them are for my account. I locked in an IWM call profit of $90 to pay for my hedges. Didn't make money for today.

Net liq inched up 1.5K. Not much upside left to the upside according to the risk graph. Margin ratio is up and looks OK for this weekend. The big banks' earnings reports start tomorrow.

Market Under Pressure 4-11-18

The bulls really under pressure from the issues, like Syria chemical weapons, Miller's investigation, the tensions with Rusia and China. The majors gave back most of their gains today. The majors have been in rangebound for almost two weeks. MACD is pointing to the upside but the sentiment is not there yet.

Made 8 trades without getting premiums. I positioned long calls in the index ETFs as I planed yesterday. I also tried to buy hedges for the weekend without much luck. Will do it again tomorrow.

Net liq stayed unchanged after the regular withdraw of 1.5K. The margin ratio is back to 50%. The prediction for the weekend looks shaky though. 

Breakout To The Upside 4-10-18

With the news of easing trade war tension, the global markets rallied overnight. It was a trending up day during the cash session. All of the majors closed up near 2% gains. There are signs of broken downtrends. MACD of the majors appear bottoming and turning up. The main question is what should I do now. Buy long calls on any dips?

Made 6 trades. Sold couple more bear calls for my clients. I rolled out my ITM expiring SPX 2750 to next week and collected some premiums. I did it too early so didn't gain any points. Beware of geopolitical risk and trade war news. Bears may not give up so easily although the earning session will start by the end of this week.

Net liq gained 2K and stayed above 120K. The margin ratio is at 35% while pressure is still on the put side.

Another Rally Faded 4-9-18

The index futures popped up on Sunday night. It was a gap up opening for the RTH. NASDAQ was the leader with 2.3% gain at its highs. SPX had +1.7%. Then things fall apart during the last hour of trading. One clue of today's reversal was that VIX didn't drop much during the drive up. Are we going to see another attempt for Feb low? Either way, the VIX is helping option selling.

Made 4 trades today. Sold couple May SPX bull calls for clients. I reversed an IWM from put to call and closed a RUT short put to release some margins. It's a light day overall.

Net liq gained 1K within the range. My margin ratio is below 40% and stayed on the put side. Will continue to hedge both sides.

Job Report Couldn't Save The Day 4-6-18

The market recovered more than a half from the last night additional tariff proposal after opening. The NFP report had 103K new hires v.s. 188K expected. Trades didn't react to the numbers badly in the morning. But sellers stepped in after lunch and dragged the majors down more than 2%. So far it appeared to be a retest of the reversal up points. But another lower highs are in place. Let's see if the recent lows would hold.

Made 15 trades today. Added more late May bull put spreads for my clients. I didn't expect a 2% drop until this afternoon. So I saved some bullets for next week. I rolled up two ITM big cars and gained a total of 30 points. The rest of the orders were hedgings. We may see a bottom soon when the earning session starts next week.

Net liq lost near 3K due to the selloff. I am top heavy now. I need to pay more attention to the levels for my RR trades. The margin ratio is at 42% for this weekend. The margin is on the long put side now since I split one each of SPX and RUT into two in the during this downturn. I haven't been able to exit any of the bull puts.

Holding Up For NFP 4-5-18

The majors advanced a bit less than 1% today. The big money is waiting for the NFP report tomorrow morning. After the hour the proposed additional 100 billion tariffs sank the majors by more than 1%.  That added uncertainty to tomorrow's market.

Made 8 trades today. I mainly tried to establish long calls in index ETFs for April. These may get hit by the new tariff situation. No premiums were collected.

Net liq is reduced due to my transfers of $2500 for credit card and $3000 to ET. The margin ratio is above 50%. It appears OK for this weekend.

Is The Bottom In? 4-4-18

The index futures dropped about 1% on China's tariff retaliation overnight. I thought that we were going see another leg down. However, the futures held at the lows of yesterday. The private job report was much better than expected this morning. It might have provided confidence for market sentiment as the government unemployment report may be better as well this Friday. The indices turned positive by midday and closed on tops of Monday's range, gaining more than 1.5%. It looks like the recent lows are set.

Made 15 trades today. I sold some SPX bull put spreads for late May early in the morning for the clients. I also closed all of the next week's long puts and locked in some profits when I saw the market was turning up. I bought some hedges for my account as usual.

Net liq gained less than 2K. The margin is above 60% and it's predicted fine for the weekend so far. I will play some directional index ETFs assuming the lows are in.

An Inside Day 4-3-18

The market took a breath and recovered about 1% after the 2-3% selloff yesterday. Overall it was an inside day. It's hard to tell the next direction of the market. It's in the process of discovery and establishing new balance areas.

Made 8 trades. It wasn't an active day. I placed some index ETF directional bets in short-term puts and long-term calls. Be patient until the market showing its hand first.

Net liq gained 3K on the recovery of the bull puts. Margin ratio is above 50% and the weight is on the put side.

The Bears Came Out After The Long Weekend 4-2-18

The market opened mildly lower after the long weekend. Technology sectors led the downward move. It turned out to be a waterfall style of a selloff. NASDAQ was down 3.5% in the early afternoon. All the majors closed down more than 2% on the 1st trading day of April. They are near the lows of Feb now. We should be able to see how the Feb low holding with one more push in the next few days. So far it's still a higher low formation.

Made 19 trades today. It was a busy day. Sold some May monthly put spreads in SPX and RUT for clients. I rolled my RUT ITM call of 4-13. Also rolled my SPX April 27, 2370, ITM call up 20 points with a put spread. Some of my scalp targets of small car bear put spreads got hit. I started to buy May long calls expecting a strong bounce during the earning session.

Net liq is basically unchanged due to the losses in the long puts. The margin ratio is above 50%. My concern is still no IMT positions near exiting point.