Trade Tension Escalated 5-31-18

The US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum cost the majors to pull back. Technically it looked like a halfway retest of yesterday's gains. It's positioning for NFP tomorrow. NFP has been a positive factor for the last few months.

Made 18 trades on this pullback day. I rolled out my last two ITM RUT bear calls for this week. The two ITM bull puts are still there. I may be able to close one and roll out one tomorrow. Sold some late June and early July RUT put spreads for clients. The rest of the trades were closing positions and hedges.

Net liq is back to 120K. The margin ratio is at 44%. Will watch the margin requirement after rolling out ITM puts tomorrow.

Bulls' Revenge 5-30-18

The selloff was short lived. The index futures recovered part of the losses overnight. It turned out to be a trending up day for all majors. RUT popped 1.5% and recorded another new high of 1651. I think the big money is positioning for this Friday's NFP. Big tech is legging though.

Made 7 trades. I mainly locked and rolled the ITM ETF calls. Tried to add hedges for my portfolio but only one filled. I don't have much to do in a trending up day. I am trying to pile off 1-2 ITM bull puts this week. If it's done then I can reverse 1-2 bear calls over next week. 

Net liq lost 2K same as the downward movement of yesterday. Margin ratio is down to 33%. I have more hedges to do in the next 2 days.

Sell Off On Italy Chaos 5-29-18

The difficulty of Italy government formation caused European markets falling. It spread into US market. Dow and SPX lost more than 1% today. RUT held well with only 0.2% loss. The negative sentiment continues into Asian market tonight. This may not be a big event to impact the US market immediately as the NFP report is coming this Friday. What happens after the report will be anybody's guess.

Made 15 trades today. Sold some SPX June and July put spreads for clients during the selloff. I bought some June 3 IWM put spreads for directional play. I also rolled my this week RUT ITM in both call and put. I have more to work on in the next 2 days.

Net liq came down to 119K. RUT has -150 deltas. The margin ratio is 39%. I will use part of premiums collected to buy more hedges

An Inside Day Before The Long Weekend 5-25-18

The market was just marking its time within yesterday's range. The daily MACDs are near a crossing down but the bull flag pattern is also in place. It will play out one way or another. We may see the battle after this Memorial weekend.

Made 13 trades. Five of them were exit orders. Sold SPX June 4 put spreads in the empty spot for clients. I had to roll out the two ITM bull calls as the indices couldn't move higher today. I will try to pill them off next week.

Net liq is in range. The margin ratio is above 50%. The predicted balance is about the same as today after adding a couple of hedges.

Attempted Selloff 5-24-18

The announcement of the US canceling the summit with North Korea caused the market gaping down at the open. It wasn't a panic selling. None of the major was down more than 1% at their lowest point. The market eventually recovered from the unexpected news. It indicates that buyers are still in charge.

Made 10 trades. ACRX hit another target of my exit. I rolled out my two ITM bear calls in RUT and SPX with some premiums. Sold some July put spreads for clients. I added 2 sets of SPY RR long calls for June. I have two ITM bull put in RUT 1635, SPX 2730 to close or roll by tomorrow.

Net liq crossed 121K. It's balanced with delta. The margin ratio is above 50%. I will see how would it change after the rolling or closing the bull calls tomorrow.

Recovered From Fed Min 5-23-18

The Fed min release is usually a tea leaf reading event. The majors were slightly down before the Fed Min. The bulls finally overcame the bears before the closing and turned the majors into positive territory. QQQ led the charge and gained 0.7%. However, the upside may be limited as the MACDs are turning down from overbought conditions.

Made 11 trades today. I rolled this week's ETFs out in time with small profits. No major premiums were collected. I have four ITM majors for this week on both sides. I am trying to exit out the two bull calls in the next two days. They are within the expected moving ranges.

Net liq is in range. The margin ratio is above 60%. It's predicted higher for this weekend before my rollovers of ITM positions. So it's hard to tell for now.

Pullback Before The Fed Min Tomorrow 5-22-18

The majors pulled back a little before the Fed minute release tomorrow. The market tends to be more sensitive to the news before a major event. Today's news was about the unsatisfactory part of the trade talks with China. Not sure how the market will react to the Fed min release tomorrow. I can use both sides to roll my ITM positions. It's the matter of patience again.

Made 8 trades today. Sold some RUT bull put spreads of July and naked puts for June. I split my RUT 1670 bull put into 1635 and 1660 to lower the strikes. I was too early on the trade way before the pullback. I will manage the position of this week actively.

Net liq climbed back 120K with the pullback. The margin ratio is above 50% for now. My leverage ratio is elevated around 420. I need to continue to peel off my ITM calls to reduce it.

A Trade Talk Induced Rally 5-21-18

The US-China trade talk issued a statement effectively putting the trade war on hold without any specific results on Saturday morning. The market took it as a relief and rallied in futures on Sunday night. The majors gapped up this morning. RUT made another new high of 1639 while SPX toughed 2739. QQQ was knocked down a half of its gains. The summer rally is boosted by the trade talk result.

Made 8 trades today. I locked and rolled some ITM ETFs with profit. Tried to buy hedges on the call side but no fills. My near-term bull puts are likely getting off but the bear calls are under pressures. I will continue to split the bull puts to bring them closer to the strikes and making rooms for more flips of the bear calls.

Net liq is down to 119K. The margin ratio is at 46%. The leverage level inched up to 433. I will hedge more toward late part of the week.

Waiting For US-China Trade Talk 5-18-18

The majors stayed relatively flat on this monthly expiry Friday. QQQ closed down 0.5% while RUT/IWM inched up again. It's conflicting signals.

Made 18 trades today. Rolled and closed my long calls of this week for profits. Reduced one more SPX bull put of 2705 after splitting 2750 to 2705 and 2730.  I may be able to add or split another ITM bull put to reduce my size a little further.

Net liq is back at 120K again. Margin ratio and excess liq are adequate for this weekend. I will reduce my OTM bear calls next week to bring up my available funds early next week.

Small Cap Leading Again 5-17-18

The majors are charging on despite a brief interruption caused by the news of the possible failure of US-China trade talks. RUT/IWM gained another 0.5% setting ATH again. The breakout is firm so far. The summer rally continues with 10 yr rate above 3%. The 3% was a do or die number for many. Now nobody seems to care about it.

Made 7 trades. I mainly locked and rolled this week's ETF calls. Collected over $300 and rolled my positions further out in time and strikes. Tried to buy more hedges but no fills.

Net liq got pulled down another 1.5K. Margin ratio is at 38%. It will get worse if I don't add hedges for this weekend.

Another ATH in RUT 5-16-18

RUT continues leading the rally. It popped another 1% and booked a new ATH of 1620. SPX and QQQ advanced as well. The next to watch is if RUT could break out firmly into a new range. The daily MACD for RUT is showing overbought with RSI over 80. However, the weekly MACD just made a positive crossing. It's likely the rally may continue.

Made 10 trades today. I rolled out all the three ITM positions without gaining any points. Sold a couple of RUT bear calls of late June for clients. Also, bought a couple of hedges for my portfolio. One of my RUT 1600 bull put is off today with a $110 price tag on it. It was a mistake of a test order left unnoticed and got filled.

Net liq is hanging on 120K. The margin ratio is at 37% after adding spreads for my rollovers. I will have to buy more hedges in the next 2 days for this weekend's expires.

Pull Back Before Pop? 5-15-18

I was on my way back from Chapel Hill yesterday. The market was down a little. The pullback continued today. But buyers stepped at the end of the day. QQQ was the only one lost more than 1%. Small cap is still leading the pack and closed slightly higher. My theses of an early pullback during the monthly expiring week might be in play now. Bulls are resting for now.

Made 10 trades. Sold late June SPX bull put spreads for my clients during the early weakness. I also rolled and split two of my ITM short positions with some premiums. ACRX finally crossed the b/e point. I scaled out partial holdings for me and clients. 

Net liq gave back 1.5K on this small pullback. The margin ratio is at 50%. The delta is slightly negative on RUT.

Buyers Won't Let It Go 5-11-18

It was another up day although it was at a smaller pace. The majors closed up a little despite several pushing down attempts. RUT is less than 15 points from making ATH. The monthly options expiration is next week. There may be shaking out early then bulls tend to run the ball up again.

Made 12 trades. I bought some long call spreads in ETFs base on expected moves of the next couple weeks. Let's see how they will play out. Bought a couple of hedges for this weekend and Monday.

Net liq stayed barely above 120K after the regular payroll transfer. The margin ratio is projected OK for next week. I am going to Chaple Hill for June's graduation this weekend. It's a milestone for all of us.   

Buyers Are In Control 5-10-18

The majors continue to rally. They haven't had a down day this week. One could feel the force of revenge for the last two and a half month. The small caps are leading the charge and close to ATH. The big guys still have some distance to go. Not sure how it will play out.

Made 4 trades. I rolled out the two RUT deep ITM bear calls without gaining any points. I had to sell bear call spreads to make the roll two weeks out. Also locked and rolled this week's ITM QQQ call spread. Tried to sell some call spreads for clients.

Net liq is still above 120K. The margin ratio is above 80% but the predicted weekend is weak. I will add more hedges tomorrow since I will be on the road next Monday.

The Rally Continues 5-9-18

Crude oil and energy stocks boosted the market after the US withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal. Crude closed up 3%.  Are we going to see a summer rally since we had a three month long of selloff and consolidation?

Had 5 trades. I had to flip my this week RUT 1570 ITM bear call to 1600 bull put. I was too eager in trying to exit the position when I did the first roll down from 1590 to 1570. I may have to flip it again if the market pulls back from here. I have two more ITM bear calls to roll before this weekend.

Net liq improved a bit. The margin ratio is above 85% after the RUT flip. It may not look well after rolling of the two RUT bear calls.

RUT Leading Again 5-8-18

The market was waiting for the announcement of US pulling out the Iran Nuclear deal. All the majors were flat except RUT continued charging up another 0.5%. Bulls won't let the prices fall.

Made 4 trades today. It's a slow day. Closed 2 Visa long calls of June with about 30% returns on margin. Locked and rolled my QQQ long calls of next week.

Net liq is below 120K after I transferred 900 to pay CC and today's move up. The margin ratio is below 50% now. I have 3 RUT ITM bear calls to roll this week.

Wedge Breakout 5-7-18

The majors continued moving up from the wedge breakout. RUT and QQQ changed their lower high patterns. SPX may be next. MACDs appear ending the shallow pullback. It's hard to tell if this is the beginning of making new highs. The trade tension is still the overhanging cloud.

Made 11 trades. Sold some RUT June bear call spreads for clients. Rolled out one of my RUT 1670 ITM bull put. The rest of the orders were exit fills.

Net liq is down 2K. Margin ratio is right at 15 50%. It appears my portfolio delta is titled to the negative side now.

Changing Sentiment 5-4-19

The job report came out less than expected (164K v.s 190K). The market didn't react positively at first. By the midday, the major indexes broke out to the upside. It could be caused by the trade talk which didn't completely break down. All of the majors gained more than 1%. They closed to their upper balance areas. The market sentiment seems improved.

Made 11 trades today. Sold couple of bear calls for clients. I also locked and rolled some ETF directional calls. I didn't want to engage too much on this Friday. It's a news-driven market.

Net liq is in range. The margin ratio is above 60% and fine for the expiry weekend. Let's see what will happen next week. 

Eyes On NFP Tomorrow 5-4-18

The market continued to fall following yesterday's retreat. There was a rumor of the trade talk between the US and China failed. It turned out to be false. The market turned around taking back most of the losses. I didn't think the big money will let the market fall too far before tomorrow's NFP.
The job report and trade talk are two factors over the market. One will be lifted tomorrow.

Made 6 trades today. I rolled my RUT 1180 deep ITM bear call to next week without gaining any points. The vol is still low despite the falling prices. Sold a couple of RUT early June bull put spreads for clients during the morning selloff. The wedge continues narrowing. It could result in either direction.

Net liq is down slightly. The margin ratio is above 60%. It is predicted with 41K after the weekend expiry. I will watch it tomorrow.

FOMC Got A Knock On The Head 5-2-18

Another FOMC passed without a rate hike as expected. The indices turned up into positive territory after the FOMC announcement. In the end, SPX and QQQ made new lows of the day while RUT gave back most of its gains for the day. The market is clearly under pressure.

Made 13 trades. I scalped SPY expecting a pop after FOMC announcement. My plan was scalping so that I quickly grabbed some profits to cover my costs. I continued to buy hedges. No major trades as planned. The wedges of the majors are narrowing on daily charts. It may break soon.

Net liq stayed the same. The margin ratio is above 60%. Now the market is waiting for NFP this Friday.

A Turn Around Tuesday 5-1-18

The market reversed up this afternoon after the continued pushing down in the morning. It looked like the big money clear deck below again before FOMC tomorrow. Apple released a better earnings report after the hour and it popped 6%. Will it be sold off like AMZN last week? I guess it depends on how the FOMC statement is received.

Made 7 trades today. No major engagement as I planned. I will wait to see what kind of reactions after FOMC tomorrow afternoon.

Net liq didn't change much as the market is range bound. The margin ratio is above 60% for now.