The Water Fall Week 5-31-19

It was a short week with the Memorial Day long weekend. The selloff accelerated as the trade tensions expanded into Mexico. The Sell in May carried to the end of May. The selling process has been methodically measured. There may be another push down to make the market panic. Otherwise, we won't see the bottom forming. 

I have been trying to reverse my positions based on the deltas of each portfolio. I didn't do it quick enough. So the net liq has reduced. I need to add more forward thinking and prediction to my rolling actions. I was too conservative earlier this week. The selling may continue for another week or two. RUT has given back almost 10% from its April high while SPX is about 7% lower from this year's high.

Net liq is at 138K which is about 10K lower than the end of last week. Leverage is back above 4 now. I need to act ahead of the curve to prevent any big damages in case there is another waterfall near term.

The Selling Continues 5-24-19

The selling pressure continues into the third week. The majors retested last week's lows and formed a bear flag pattern. RUT broke the low of last week and closed below it. The weekly MACDs are about to make a bearish crossing while the daily did it a while back. The trade tension is the main factor making the majors nervous.  Some people are talking about a correction of 10% or more.

Our portfolios are pressured further from the 1.2-2% drop on the long side. Luckily the most of long puts were closed out today. There are 2 RUT 1520 and 2 SPX 2830 ATM were rolled down. The majors are forming an HS pattern now. It may play out if the trade war is not eased soon. The deltas are weighing on the put side now.

Net liq is back up to 144K after transferred another 5K back to ET. Options value are at -390K. Anything below -400K is a relief for me. Leverage is at 384. The Memorial Day long weekend will give me a chance to think and learn new approaches to unwind my deep ITM positions.

Sell In May 5-17-19

I was in Fort Laudel late last week for a short family vacation. I didn't write my weekly journal last week. S&P started falling back after making an ATH in late April. RUT is in the same pattern of a pullback without making ATH.  The trade tension is putting pressures on the market. The MACD daily is showing some signs of oversold but the weekly just started crossing to the downside.

It was the 2nd down week led by RUT. After the 2-3% selloff on Monday, the majors held in range. It looks like March's pattern so far. It could turn out to be last Oct's selloff after earnings ending. I was able to exit most of our long puts last and this week which reduced some risk to the downside. I may roll up more short calls if the majors stay in range next week.

Net liq is at 145K after I paid 5K back to ET. Leverage is below 4 for the first time in a long time. The value of my options is at -401K. Hope I can get it below 400K.

An Eventful Week 5-3-19

There were FOMC and NFP this week alone with ER in full swings. The majors sold off after the FOMC's news conference. I can't believe that many people expected the FED to lower the interest rate. The NFP job report today was much better than estimated (263K v.s. 190K). SPX recovered the loss of Wed and made another ATH. RUT gained almost 2% and closed above 1600 for the first time this yr. Bulls are strong. Many people are fearful of missing out.

My portfolio recovered about 6K this week. I was heavy in long puts. Five out of six of my long puts were exited and one was rolled to next Monday. That gives me more room to add long puts next week. The price of it was that my short calls are further under water now. I have to work with what's present now.

Net liq is at 128K, slightly lower than last week. I didn't collect premiums after spending on hedges. Leverage is at 473. The progress is very slow. The two RUT 1100 short calls are 30% under water. There is no way to release them under my current method. I may have to use a different asset to replace them.