The majors finally pulled back a little for this weak. But they are still hanging on the upper ranges. SPX refused to go under 3100. Dip buyers kept the market on holiday rally. MACDs are crossing down on daily. But the weeklies are still strong. RSIs are not terribly overbought. The market may be waiting for the trade trounce. There could be a blow-off top with the news. The old saying: buy on the rumor and sell on the new.
Net liq stayed above 140K for this week. The leverage is slightly below 4. The portfolios are stable for the week, except for the SPX 2810 SC in my personal account. It's stretched to the 30K limit. I had to wire another 5K in to rescue it. But how long can it last? I was able to close out two SPX LP and two RUT LP. I rolled out an SPX 3110P and a RUT 1610P. I will be glad to see the majors pull back some next week.
I need to review my current rolling strategy and practice. I basically didn't make much progress for my clients' accounts this year. For my main account, I paid back 38K to ET and covered my monthly spendings. It's not going to fully recover for another year or two if I continue to practice the same way.
Friday, November 22, 2019
Friday, November 15, 2019
The Bulls Are Not Tired 11-15-19
The bulls are not tired at all. the sentiment is so bullish when bad news couldn't knot the market down for more than 1 hr. Then, any good news could rally the market for days. I often underestimate the extreme levels the bulls and bears could push to. I didn't act in a far sight view to aggressively adjust my portfolios. Of course my new rules of "Not adding positions" didn't work for current one-sided price actions.
Net liq is down to 142K. The leverage is above 4 after several long calls are off the book and the majors broke out to the upside. I am heavy in short calls now. My clients' portfolios are in similar conditions.
I didn't spend time to trade ETFs this week. I thought the longs are too high and the shorts are not low enough yet. So, I was right on the shorts but missed the longs.
Net liq is down to 142K. The leverage is above 4 after several long calls are off the book and the majors broke out to the upside. I am heavy in short calls now. My clients' portfolios are in similar conditions.
I didn't spend time to trade ETFs this week. I thought the longs are too high and the shorts are not low enough yet. So, I was right on the shorts but missed the longs.
Friday, November 8, 2019
The Bulls Carry On 11-8-19
The majors booked another week of gains. SPX closed at 3097. RUT is also close to 1600, the big round number. The year-end rally is marching on. I have been waiting for a pullback but it hasn't happened. My contrarian thinking often became wishful thinking. It seems a habit now. I need to base my thinking on the current facts.
I was able to exit SPX 3070 LP and RUT 1565, 1575. But my total positions remain the same except I reversed a RUT short call to long put. Deltas are very negative. Only a 1-2% pullback could help balance it.
Net liq is back above 140K. The leverage is above 4. I prefer it stays in mid 3. My ETFs are all shorts. My view of the direction is not in line with the market and I haven't been flexible to adapt to the market. I failed to take stop losses of my IWM put entered before the trade agreement. I let it stayed there until it expired worthless today. It is a $250 total loss. Until I can take losses or reverse positions quickly to preserve my capital I won't make it in my ETF trade either.
I was able to exit SPX 3070 LP and RUT 1565, 1575. But my total positions remain the same except I reversed a RUT short call to long put. Deltas are very negative. Only a 1-2% pullback could help balance it.
Net liq is back above 140K. The leverage is above 4. I prefer it stays in mid 3. My ETFs are all shorts. My view of the direction is not in line with the market and I haven't been flexible to adapt to the market. I failed to take stop losses of my IWM put entered before the trade agreement. I let it stayed there until it expired worthless today. It is a $250 total loss. Until I can take losses or reverse positions quickly to preserve my capital I won't make it in my ETF trade either.
Friday, November 1, 2019
All Time Highs - Partying On 11-1-19
The majors continued their uptrend this week. SPX stayed in the new high territory above 3025 after the breakout on Monday. NQ is in a similar pattern. DJ is less than 100 points from its ATH. RUT is the only one far from its ATH of 1742. But it is ready to break its July high of 1600. Fed cut the rate for the 3rd time this yr. GDP is near 2% and the NFP for Oct is better than expected. Manufacturing is in contraction 3 months in a row but nobody cares. The market usually will go through its cycle and get to a target unless there is a major disruption.
My portfolios are squeezed by the surge of this week. Net liq is at 143K. The leverage is above 4. I was able to exit 7 long puts on the month-end and the weekly expiry. Although most of them are add-ons. I think there is one major in SPX and RUT at least.
I have adjusted my deltas less actively this week. My thinking is not to chasing the breakout and new highs often bring in selloffs based on past experiences. I failed to stop losses on my IWM bear puts placed before the trade talk. I didn't actively manage it rath relied on hope. Hope is not a strategy. My directional ETFs are still too passive in the bear side. I need to be more nipple. Follow my plan.
My portfolios are squeezed by the surge of this week. Net liq is at 143K. The leverage is above 4. I was able to exit 7 long puts on the month-end and the weekly expiry. Although most of them are add-ons. I think there is one major in SPX and RUT at least.
I have adjusted my deltas less actively this week. My thinking is not to chasing the breakout and new highs often bring in selloffs based on past experiences. I failed to stop losses on my IWM bear puts placed before the trade talk. I didn't actively manage it rath relied on hope. Hope is not a strategy. My directional ETFs are still too passive in the bear side. I need to be more nipple. Follow my plan.
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