The Bulls Are Back 12-18-20

 The seasonal patterns worked this time again. The bulls come back strong. All of them majors made ATHs this week. RUT made its 7th consecutive weekly gains. The Santa rally continues but stretched. According to the seasonality the rally would end in the mid of next January. 

My net liq of 103K didn't improve much. Most of my short term bull puts are out. The leverage is higher at 46. RUT's delta is negative 70 while SPX is flat. I split and rolled the Sept SPX 3700 to June 3600x2. This may hurt me if the downturn comes. I will try to reduce it as soon as I can. My limit is on buying power. 

I traded some O DTE this week. I am still weak at enforcing the stop-loss rules. I keep thinking and looking for different ways to void take stops. I need to study the type of stop-loss orders for the 0 DTE, especially for IF because it involves 4 legs. I took a stop which executed at higher prices today. I must be very good at it before I can succeed with this strategy. 

Expected Pull Back 12-11-20

 The majors pulled back this week as the seasonality chart indicated. All of the major indices except the RUT closed in red for the week. But the trend lines are held daily and weekly. Dip buyers are still active. The pullback may continue to early next week as the stimulus package is still pending in Congress. 

My net liq is at 103K with delta neutral. The leverage stays at 447, the highest point in Dec. I am still walking on a thin line for my net liq balance. I haven't been able to collect enough premiums to cover my short call rollings since Nov. I am net out $8K for the same period. RUT may provide me an opportunity to reverse another short call. I need to be patient for a decent pullback. It has run up so much from Nov. On weekly, it is above the upper Bollinger band for five weeks now. 

The shadow trader caused me $400 this week on an AMZN BF call. I missed some of his profitable trades last week. My 0 DTE had mixed results this week. It may be just B/E at the best since I didn't trade it on Monday and took stops on Wednesday. I need to be more directionally engaged and patient. 

New Highs One After Another 12-4-20

 I skipped two weeks of the journal during the Thanks Giving holidays. The majors continued grinding up making new highs one after another while the small caps leading the charge. SPX closed at 3699 and RUT hit 1890. It has been an incredible run after the election. The seasonality is behind it as well. Now with the century numbers insight, the majors may pull back or take a breath before resuming the run again. The seasonal pattern also indicates a pullback in early Dec. 

My netliq close at 106K and the leverage at 425. The risk reversal to longs I did after the election has saved me on this up wave. I have rolled my long puts continuously to keep up with the surge. I may be able to exit my RUT long puts by next January and reverse another short call. SPX is way out in next Sept. I have rolled the two down 100 points. But I don't have enough buying power to split and bring one close in time. The ET positions are unwinding. Hopefully, I can exit the long positions before the end of the year. 

The shadow trader is working fine. It gives me some fresh ideas but doesn't generate enough income. I entered a couple of debit call spreads for TSLA and AMD. So far I got the direction right. It's another skill to book profit. I will continue to practice directional trade. 

A Volatile Week Ended With New Highs 11-13-20

 The election and vaccine news boosted the majors to all-time highs except for NASDAQ on Monday. Then, they were quickly faded. It was a tag war for the rest of the week. The majors other than NASDAQ closed at new highs on Friday. It looks like the year-end rally is underway. There may be one more pullback in November if the seasonal pattern holds true. 

My net liq is at 102K, hanging on a thread. The leverage is at 441. The combined delta is near zero after I reversed the SPX 2820C to two 3800P. It was a timely trade. But I may not gain or lose much in either direction of the market moves. I will continue to lean toward the long side by adjusting the ITM puts. I finally got some relief for my ET disaster. One of the two long puts should expire worthless on Monday. If that's the case I will have some extra BP to split and roll the SPX 3820 put. I must be really careful to unwind the position. 

I didn't make much progress in new trading systems. I spent most of my time managing my current positions this week. I traded a couple index ETF on the sharp selloff yesterday. The result is mixed so far. 

A Surprising Market Reaction To The Election 11-6-20

 It was a highly anticipated volatile event for this election. I had tried to build some hedges for the downside through VIX products and debit spreads of index ETFs. I only bought some call spreads in the small-caps since my delta was very negative. As it often happens that my bets of the market directions are turned out to be wrong. The futures rallied on the election night even without a clear winner. They kept gaping up for the next two days. I still feel this rally could be a bull trap. SPX and NASDAQ are reaching their Oct breakdown areas. But RUT broke out its Oct high and closed on top of the area. This is a divergence to watch. Could the small-cap be the leading indicator again? For the others, the first attempt may not work out. The seasonal year-end rally could be a force to push the market higher. 

My netliq stayed at 111K. The leverage notched a little higher to 378. It was the first positive $26K in realized gains for the last 4 weeks in IB. All of my RUT long puts were expired worthless before I reversed the RUT 1350C to 1960 long put in June 2021. I will gradually bring it lower. I added two SPX short term LP for recovery knowing the 3 of the old LP would be expired worthless. I may not be able to reverse one of my two SPX SC since they are so deep ITM and SPX jumped up 130 points this week alone. My delta is still in negative territory. The ET account is a different story. I am forced to reverse the 3110 short call to the Nov 19, 3830 long put. I hope that my 3550 LP will be expired or exited by then to release some margin for me to roll over the 3830. This is the most costly mistake I have made in my personal account. 

I haven't traded with Shadow Trader for most of this week since he is standing down for the election event. I am still thinking to change my trading strategy. Otherwise, I will get the same result with the same mindset and strategy. 

Volatility Picked Up 10-30-2020

 Volatility surged from last Sunday night when the futures opened. SPX 3400 failed to hold on Monday. Then, the watershed started. The majors dropped 3% or more on Wednesday. By the end of the week, SPX and NQ are back to retest the September low of 3200s. The small-cap faired a little better. It pulled back about 50% from the same period but closed under 50 SMA. The difference may mean something. The election uncertainty and the resurging of COVID-19 are the driving forces. The market seasonality is in play as well. 

My netliq is up to 120K. The leverage is at 3.37. These deep ITM bear calls helped. I am waiting for the election result to reverse one or two bear calls once the dust is settled. My saga of loss in ET continues. I reversed 2 long puts to short calls. I was able to close the early one of 3360C today. I am left with a long put and short call both deep ITM. I have to maneuver around according to the election result. I am limited to available funds which makes it difficult. I could be choked to death at some point. A fatal mistake I made by not stopping my loss according to my rules. 

A Week Of Hurry And Wait 10-23-20

 This week ended lower for SPX while RUT gained a little. On daily, the majors swung up and down wildly. The main event affecting the market was the stimulus talk. A deal hasn't been made as of this Friday night. The majors are holding their bull flag on the weekly charts. VIX is at 29. Don't know how the election would affect the market. It may very much depend on if there is a clear winner. 

I have reduced my long puts by one for SPX and RUT and made them closer to the money in case the market drops after the election. If it pops I will have to reverse a short call in my IB acct. I am still struggling with the failed stop loss from last week in ET. The three long puts weathered this week's wild swings. Another hard lesson learned. It's harder than I expected to change my old, bad trading habit. It may take me a few more weeks to get out of the long puts in ET. The one in FI was expired worthless today. 

The net liq in IB is down to 111K and the leverage is at 362. I spent about $8K to roll 2 deep ITM short calls this week. I have entered about $700 SPY and IWN long put spreads to hedge the election. I may add more to both sides next week. I am also thinking about buying some VIX ETNs. But I don't have a good record of trading such products. I have some of them underwater spread in my accounts. 

A Choppy & Rough Week 10-16-20

 It was a choppy but rough week. The majors had wild swings. SPX closed barely above the high of last week while RUT and NQ held the breakout lows after this afternoon's big pullback. The majors closed at the low of today after the morning's gap up and push higher. It feels bearish at the end. The upward move was interrupted by the failure of the stimulus deal and the surge of COVID-19 cases here and in Europe. The unpredictable election is closing in. The market will be uneasy and spooky for awhile. But the uptrend is still intact. 

My net liq closed at 112K, unchanged from last week. The leverage is 372. The collected premium is about $3100 after spending $7K to roll 2 bear calls up. The way I roll my deep ITM bear calls couldn't catch up on the market's movement. I am trying to flip 1 each to the long side. I need a new approach to my trading. 

I failed to enforce my stop loss rules again this Monday in my 0 DTE trades. I got too emotional when my bear call spreads were challenged but not touched. I had a chance to place my stops in the IF and call spreads but didn't enforce it. I flip them to the put side and reduce the number of contracts. Then the failed stimulus talk new hit the market on Wednesday and the selloff pushed my positions deep ITM for 1.5-2+%. I had to roll out further and wider to keep it afloat. It has been the old, bad practice repeat. I am reliving the nightmare. The bad habit kicks in although I knew it was wrong. It doesn't make any sense to risk thousands to make a hundred. I will not trade the 0 DTE until I recover from this loss. I will not trade 0 DTE and Recovery hedge again without having a stop loss in place. Period. 

The Trend Is Up Again 10-9-20

 The majors closed in the green for this week again. SPX is up for the third week while RUT booked its 2nd week up to 1637, close to the Feb ATH of 1715. NQ is relatively weak after leading the up and down in the last two months. Are the majors retesting the previous highs before the election or setting up for new highs after the election? The seasonals are bullish for the last three months of the year. Of course, the market is still very nervous about the election result and the impact of Covid-19 on the economy. 

I had a good week trading 0 DTE and collecting premiums in my regular positions. It's all winners for the 0 DTE both CS and IF this week thanks to the lower vol conditions. I need to be more selective trading the O DTE base on the market conditions. I still don't have the stop-loss rules fully enforced. It happened twice this week the prices blew through before I was able to put in my stop orders. Luckily both of them were recovered. One of these days the luck will run out and wipe out my months of profit. Keep remembering the lessons. 

My netliq is down to 112K due to the uptrend and the reduces long puts. The leverage is at 3.7. There are 3 RUT and 4 SPX long puts expired worthless this week. My delta is totally negative now. I will add long puts further ITM but fewer contracts. I will look hard to see where I can reverse 1-2 short calls to long puts. 

Is The Volatility Near End 10-2-20

 The majors booked a weekly gain except for the tech-heavy NASDAQ. The VIX is also in green for the third week. The small-cap is leading the charge. The market may continue to be volatile with many present risk factors, such as the pandemic and election. Seasonally the early October is unsettling. 

My net liq is about 10K higher than last week as the market recovers. The leverage is 3.3. I am just adopting the market one day at a time. The 0 DTE is working fairly well this week. I didn't have any normal stop out. The 9/30 long puts were a sudden news event. My order got filled and blew through within a minute once the stimulus talk failed. I didn't even have time to prepare my stop-loss order. I had to roll it out and it got closed today. I am lucky to roll out twice and recovered the losses. But it won't last long. I have to firm up my stop rules. 

No new vendor is selected this week. I am still trying to clearly define what are my objectives and how could I incorporate another trading system into my current practices. 

  

Another Volatile Week 9-25-20

 It was another volatile week but ended in an up note. SPX and NQ closed this week in green while the large-cap and small-cap are still in red but with buying tails. The notable pattern of the week was up in AM and down by PM. Only this Friday was rallying up day from the overnight gap down. It looks like a temporary bottom formed. The Covid-19, social unrest, and upcoming election are still risk factors. 

My net liq went through a role coaster ride this week. It ended slightly up at 113K. The leverage is at 3.7. I rolled up my short calls this week with a little recovery and closed 3 long puts. It looks like my cash collection will be negative for this month since I spent about $10K in rolling positions. The 0 DTE didn't work well this volatile week. I ended with 3 winners and 5 losers. My plan was not to trade 0 DTE in a volatile market. I still not use the stop-loss consistently. 

I will have to reduce my positions aggressively before the election. IB announced it would increase its margin requirement by 35% before the election. I need to keep in mind that I can recover the position losses gradually after the volatile time.   

The Third Week Down 9-18-20

 The majors continued to drift down into the third week. The sentiment appears muted and no major fears are detected according to CNN Fear & Greed index. Basically, we may not have seen the end of the pullback yet. This is the first time the market has had 3 consecutive down weeks since the March low. SPX retested the 20 DMA above and failed. It closed below the 50 DMA today for the first time following NSDAQ's path. The large-cap, Dow, and the small-cap, RUTH are still holding their 50 DMA but below the 20 DMA. Not sure which direction will lead to the next move. 

My netliq didn't change much from the 110K level. The leverage is below 4 for now. I had to roll the three of expiring deep ITM short calls which cost about $6K. There were six of the long puts expired worthless. I need to add less long puts but put them closer to TM. Then I can split and roll them. This may reduce my exposure to risk. 

I am still not disciplined enough to take my stops in my 0 DTE.  I had an IF deep ITM today but I didn't roll since it would cost me 1-1.5K loss. I roll the put side to next Friday and expended the spread from 5k to 10k. That's a risky old habit. I didn't take any stop for CS today. I was overconfident that the Quad Witching Friday would be choppy and range bound. I wasn't objectively taking the market generated info. I need to study the proper stop loss function in both ET and IB. I still need to search for a different style of service provider to complement my trading strategies. 

Another Down Week 9-11-20

 The majors continue to slide after the Labor Day long weekend. There were 3 out of 4 red days. The techs, especially FAANG are leading the selloff. The overall sentiment is slightly negative therefore we may not hit the bottoms yet. The noon reversal has been the pattern for this week. SPX and NQ appear forming a head and shoulder pattern after falling from ATHs. SPX touched its 50 SMA today and holding it so far. RUT is below its 50 SMA heading toward 200 SMA in the 1460 area. 

My net liq closed at 102K. It was hit twice this week below 100K. I don't have much cushion for a volatile move to either side. Luckily I was able to reduce one each long put in SPX and RUT today. I also combined and rolled 2 RUT into 1 that reduced my delta in RUT a bite. 

I have improved my practice in taking stop losses. I took 2 stops of 0 DTE in ET this week. It felt good because it will be easier to recover the losses. Despite the stops, I still made over $500 trading 0 DTE in ET. I must use a 3x stop in my recovery trade as well. I have made no progress in searching for a new trading services. 

The Pre Holiday Selloff 9-4-20

 The majors continued their upward at the beginning of the week. NASDAQ and SPX made ATHs until this Wednesday. SPX touched 3588 and the century figure of 3600 was just a touch away. RUT was close to break the 1600 mark again. Then, out of nowhere the sellers came out on Thursday after better than expected jobless claim numbers. The tech FAANG stocks were hit hard. At the heights of the selloff, SPX and NASDAQ were down 4 and 5% respectively. I was totally unprepared for it. It was another hard-hit day today with the Labor Day long weekend ahead. The majors recovered partially in the late afternoon but all closed below the lows of yesterday which could be a bearish signal. It appears this reversal is for real. The new top may be in for now. 

My netliq was hit hard today and closed at 102K. My shorts absorbed some of the downsides yesterday. It got reversed today. I had too many longs expiring today. My net liq went below 100K in the mid of the selloff. I had to use the times when the netliq claim up to 100K to roll my long puts. It was a tough day. I booked 23K losses to roll these positions. I only had one RUT long put closed out. I will implement stop losses for all my recovery positions. It could have saved me a lot of problems. A lesson learned the hard way. 

The O DTE strategy worked mostly this week. I took 2 stops for the IF I made on Wednesday which I followed my rules. That was an improvement. I didn't follow my plan today though. I was going to wait until 10:30 to place my 0 DTE orders. But I jumped in too early after I missed the bear call entry. I assumed it would be a small ranged choppy session since the long weekend is coming. I didn't take my stops during the selloff. I assumed there would be a bounce-back in the afternoon. I broke my rules despite the winning results. I should have taken the stops and enter at lower prices to recover my losses. 

The high volatility period is here. I have to work hard on my stop-loss rules in both recovery and 0 DTE trades. 

S&P All Time Highs 8-28-20

 S&P gapped up on Monday making all-time high. It made new highs every day this week and closed above 3500 today. An incredible over 100 points run this week. NQ is leading all the majors, 2000 points above last Feb's high. RUT was lagging but kept its bull flag formation. SPX has had only two down days so far in August. The market can go extreme in both directions. I will stay with the trend until it turns. 

My netliq closed 107K which is slightly lower than last week. The leverage is at 4.4. I have been aggressively selling long puts on every expiring date in SPX. It helped to ease the pressure from the bull run. My 0 DTE was doing well until this Wednesday. First I was being greedy on QII's IF trades. I moved my profit target when it hit my ET acct. Then SPX exploded to the upside and put me into losing territory. I then added another IF at a higher price in the hope of recovering which wasn't in my plan. I didn't make a stop first to limit my loss. Then I was hoping the market would pull back in the afternoon. I didn't apply the needed discipline to take stop loss at the predetermined % levels. It cost about $3500 all together instead of about $600-800. Another hard lesson. The stop must be firm and mechanical, not the last moment hope and 2nd guessing. 

I need to look for another directional trading strategy after I canceled the day trading options service. I don't have a good candidate so far. May have to do some research this weekend. 

Bulls In Control, Divergence Continues 8-21-20

 SPX and NASDAQ made ATHs this week. It's the first time for SPX to break 3390 since its Feb high. All of the majors closed higher except for the small-cap and the financial sector. Need to watch how the divergence between the big caps and small caps playing out in the days to come. 

My net liq is up to 110K after I aggressively added long puts and collected a nice chunk of premiums. The leverage is at 4. I have spent about $8K to roll up two deep ITM short calls. I haven't got much relief for the last 4-5 weeks since the majors kept going up. My plan is to deleverage at least a half of my positions before the election. 

I stopped trading the directional short term options this week. The 0 DTE strategy has worked well in the summer slow time. The daily ranges are really small. I added Iron Fly to deal with the small ranges. It works so far. Shadow Trades took a couple losses this week. I have learned a couple new tricks. 

Waiting For A Trigger? 8-14-20

 SPX didn't break out to a new high this week. It closed up slightly but struggled. RUT was up a little this week while formed a shooting star weekly. Gold and silver sold off. The 10 yr treasury yield is above 7 now. The signals are mixed. The pending stimulus package may be the reason that the majors are in holding mode. Let's see what next week will bring. It's still a strong uptrend. 

My netliq recovered somewhat. It's closed near 105K. The leverage is at 4.4. QII account realized $5.5K profit after spending $5.8K to roll two deep ITM bear calls. I traded 2 0DOE this week. I couldn't get any fill on either side today since SPX only traded a 17 point range. I didn't chase it. I don't have to trade every day. I didn't trade much of the directional options either. It's not really my style. 

I will start to look for another service next week. I need to step out of my comfort zone. I am still selling premiums as my major income. It works well in a range-bound and uptrend market. It will suffer when a correction comes. 

S&P heading to ATH? 8-7-20

 The majors booked another up week. SPX closed above the Feb 17 gap. RUT is above its June high. The bulls are in charge, climbing the wall of worries. SPX is only about 50 points away from its ATH. It's likely to make new highs following NQ's path. 

My netliq suffered 13K reduction due to the negative delta. I added so many short term long puts but didn't help much. I still have the underlining worry of a sudden drop as the SPX trying to close the Feb gap. The leverage is up to 4.65 now from below 4 last week. I did collect $2700 premiums despite spent $1380 to roll a RUT short call. 

I have learned more ways to trade options. Shadow Trader is methodical and risk-adjusted. I decided to cancel the Insight Options. The day trading options method is not really my style. The SPX 0DTE is working in this rangebound market so far. I didn't have to make a stop this week. But I am still recovering from the two failed stops. A hard lesson learned. 

I am still struggling with ways to reduce my long term ITM options. I want to get it done before Oct before the election. I need to make a clear goal of what to do next. A presidential term is almost over but my situation hasn't changed much. 

 

Failed To Close The Feb Gap 7-24-20

SPX made an attempt to close the big gap from Feb 24, the beginning of COVID 19 selloff. It got into the gap for a couple of days but couldn't even get through half of the gap. The sellers started selling on Thursday after a disappointing jobless report. We have seen some worse jobless claim reports while the majors disregard them. This report mattered at the critical technical point. The top for this rally may be in for now unless there is a positive catalyst to change the market sentiment.  

The pullback of the last two days actually helped my portfolio as I have been carrying negative delta. The net liq is above 100K and the leverage is below 4. There is two short term RUT LP and one SC expired worthless today. I entered a deep ITM LP 3300 on Thursday pre-market as the SPX future was moving up overnight. It was the worst timing to get long. SPX started to fall by the late morning. I am still not quick in responding to trend changes. 

My directional options trading is not doing well. I tried to use Brandon's breakout method since his alerts are hard to catch. I lost most of my picks. I think I am not used to trading such a short time and fast market. These weekly options move much faster than futures. The paces of Shadow Trader may suit me better. The Volatility Trading Strategies have not done much for me either. I may start to try to look for different services. 

The Gap Above Filled 7-17-2020

SPX filled the breakdown gap of June 6 and closed right at the high of that week. The next target may be the gap down made on Feb 24, the beginning of the big selloff. RUT is making catch up. It finally closed above the 200 SMA after it lost it back in June. NASDAQ retraced from ATHs this week. It's a noticeable divergence. Tech was weak this week. Overall, the market sentiment seems to stay on the positive side. However, seasonality indicates a turn in the late part of July. Something to keep in mind. 

My portfolio didn't improve much. The net liq is at 108K after it went below 100K on Wednesday's gap up. The leverage is still above 4. I really need to reduce at least one position on the bear side. Luckily, I quickly reversed 2 short term bear calls early this week. 

I have a positive return for my accounts this week. The premium collection is over $2000 after taking a $3900 stop loss in 0 DTE trading. I didn't execute my stop loss plan quick and firm on that quick reversal on Monday. I could have done a rollover as well. It will take about 40 winning trades to recover that mistake. I did OK trading the 0 DTE system on Wednesday and Friday. I will have stop trading this system when VIX is above 30. 

The Consolidation Continues 7-10-20

SPX stayed in its current range of 3240 to 2965 (275 pts) for the 7th week. It closed at 3185, the upper portion of the range. It looks like SPX is ready to close the gap above 3190 after so many tries. NASDAQ continues to make new ATHs. On the other hand, RUT is still legging. It closed at 1423, the mid of its current ranges of 1340-1537 (197 pts). It's still below its 200 SMA. A divergence needs to be noted. 

It was a positive week for me. All of my positions were expired worthless. The options selling strategy works well during the range-bound market. My net liq didn't change much. It closed at 109K. The leverage is slightly below 4. The realized gain topped $12K, a nice recovery from June. 

My directional options with Brandon has improved. It requires more preparation. It's very hard to catch his alert since his style is catching the fast breakout. Just need to get his list and prices on the scream. I recovered about $500 this week. The VST and Shadow Trader are slow trades. I joined the Simple Options Strategy group on FB. They trade SPX 0 DTE or one DTE with narrow spreads. It could work with proper stops. I will continue to study their practices. I traded some 1x, 2x 4x spreads yesterday, and today. It worked in this rangebound market with VIX around 30. This system may not work when and if VIX gets too high. 

Bulls Are Back 7-2-20

The majors made gains this week. They took back the losses of last week. Overall, they are still in the ranges except for NASDAQ which made another ATH of 10,422. Is SPX going to challenge 3240 area again? The seasonality may let it run till the mid of July. RUT is still below its 200 MA and above the 50 MA. The triangle formation may continue choppy for a while but will break hard one way or another. 

My net liq is at 110K after sending $5K back to ET this week. The leverage is down to 384. I was able to unwind most of the bull puts in SPX which were sucked in during last week's pullback. The delta in SPX is negative now. I am planning to switch one RUT long put to SPX long put if and when the margin is allowed. 

My directional options trading has improved. I took stops more forcefully helped. I did more of my own research than just waiting for the alert. The surge of big techs helped my performance as well. I still have the fear of losing in committing a larger contract. I may stay below $400 per contract and be selective.   

On The Edge Of Breaking Down 6-28-20

The majors pulled back this week after retesting last week's breakdown area. SPX tried 3 times to close the gap above 3155 but failed. RUT closed the gap down of 6-11, then got rejected as well. NASDAQ falls back below 10K. It appears the pullback could continue while the pandemic worsening in the US. However, the uptrend in daily and weekly are still intact. But they closed in the lower sides of the current ranges. 

My net liq is basically unchanged from last week's 109K. The leverage is about the same as well. I didn't get enough room to pay $5K back to ET as I planned. I sold 3-4 long puts aggressively to cover the -$4K roll of 2350 SC. I was confident that SPX would push to close the 3055 gaps. As most of the time my overconfidence doesn't serve me well. I got another pie on my face. 

My trades with Insight Options didn't go well this week. His winning trades went too fast to catch. I may be better off the take a slower approach. I have been listening to Larry William's trading book in Chinese and learned some good lessons. Be patient and give time for a trade to work are two things I need the most. I overtraded in SPY and SPOT yesterday on both sides with emotions charged. 

The Trick and Track Fool Market 6-19-2020

The majors closed in their positive territory with wild moves this week. The market recovered about 50% of last week's loss. The majors started a major reversing up on Monday. SPX couldn't close the gap from last Thursday while RUT and QQQ did. But the majors reversed down on the quadruple witch Friday, especially the futures in the after hour. SPX is still above its 200 MA but RUT failed to take it. QQQ stayed above the ATH range. These are conflicting info for next week. We are likely to gap down on Sunday night based on Friday's closing if there is no big positive news. The trick and track crew may surprise us again. 

My net liq is at 117K after borrowing another 15K from ET to help to roll my positions. I plan to return 5K back to ET this week. I closed my SPX 3310 long put for about 17K since it would cost 4K to roll with only 10 point gain. I plan to recover it with some smaller positions. I may try to close one RUT to reduce my risk exposure. 

My short term breakout option trading booked a small loss due to my lack of taking stops firmly. This program identifies breakout stocks with good levels. But it's just too fast to catch for me or I may not have studied it hard enough. I may look for a replacement at a slower pace. The Shadow Trader and VTS are fairly conservative.

The Bear Came Out 6-12-20

It was a wild week. The sentiment was high earlier this week before the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. On Thursday the majors had the biggest selloff day since March. SPX and RUT were down 65.8 and 7.6% respectively. This Friday is an inside day while bulls and bears played a tug of war. The day ended in the positive territory but lower than the open. VIX is back above 35. It appears that the rally is stalled near the Feb breakdown point. 

My net liq is down to 91K. The leverage is near 5.5. I couldn't do much rolling when the net liq is below 100K. Luckily I don't have any position expiring this week. It will be critical and difficult for me next week if the net liq is still below 100K. 

I am learning more about direct trading in my other accounts. I am taking stops more forcefully. I feel more comfortable about it now, especially after listening to Larry William's book. I made a few more wins with the Options Insight program. I am still having fear of losing. I only used one contract at each time and don't let my winning trade run. I will work on it next week. I also signed up with the VTS program. It's a VIX based swing trading system. It seems I am more comfortable with these slower-paced trades.  

Are We There Yet? 6-5-20

It's a big up week for the majors as the third consecutive weekly gains. SPX closed at 3194 after briefly breached 3200. It's only about 60 points from the big breakdown week back at the end of February. RUT has been behind SPX and NQ. It also closed at 1507, above its 200 DMA today after the big boost of NFP No. The majors may be closer to their destination in the upside, or not? NASDAQ made ATH. Is it a clue for the rest? 

My net liq is at 95.8K after the big 2.6%, 3.8% pop today. My portfolio is too vulnerable for a big move in either direction. The leverage jumped to 5.65. Luckily I exited 3 long puts today. I may benefit if the market takes a breath next week. 

I am still struggling with my disciplinary issue. I didn't obey the stop rules and the accounts suffered. My Elite Option service lost money again because I didn't follow the stop loss calls. I have to stick to the stop-loss rules or I won't be able to stay in this business. My old thinking pattern comes in every time when I need to stop loss in a position. I must recognize and correct this bad habit.  

The Bull Kept Going 5-29-20

It's another up week. The bull kept going despite the bear's attack. The pattern has been down in the morning and rally by noon until closing. SPX is above its 200 SMA for 3 days. It retested the 200 SMA today and bounced off from there. RUT is working on its Fib 61.8. It closed below the level today. It is still 80 points from its 200 SMA. MACD and RSI are up but no sign of overbought. The US and China tension over HK, COVID-19, and high jobless claims haven't deterred the bulls. 

My net liq barely claimed back above 100K today. The leverage is above 5 again. My RUT risk reversal from bear call to bull put was badly timed yesterday, alone with the SPX 3050 put split. I had to roll the SPX 3050 put to 3040 for Monday. 

I have been trading the two services for about 2 wks now. The shadow trader is slow and conservative. I have made about $100 so far. Peter's daily market perspective is helpful to get a sense of the market conditions. The insight options style is fast and most in day trading. I haven't quite get used to the speed. I am down $1000 so far. One of the reasons is still related to my bad habit of taking stops. I need to prepare for his watch list and get ready to trigger. Also, I need to recognize my emotions and try to control them. It's always the fear and greedy rotating places. I have to closely follow their trading rules. 

The Market Has A Destination? 5-22-20

The majors gapped up to April's high areas on Monday. They stayed there for the whole week despite several attempts of pushing down. They are above their 20 and 50 MAs with bullish postures. NQ has been above its 200 MA for weeks. The majors' MACD turned green on weekly but RSIs are not over 60. That indicates they may have more room in the upside. On the other hand, the flat top formation may fall off at any time. The economy is not doing well at all. The fed provided plenty of liquidity may be the main force holding the financial market. Is SPX designated to test its 200MA at 3000 area?

My net liq is at 107K. The leverage is at 4.78. They are improved but still vulnerable. There was no major positions exit for this week. I hope my SPX 2950 could be exited next week. 

I signed up another short term trading service - Elite Options last Sunday night. It's almost a day trading options in breakout style. It's a very fast pasted action. I have missed a couple of good calls since they tend to move quickly. My result for the first week is -$138. Shadow Trader is slower pasted and provides more market analysis. The trading hasn't generated many positive results. I have picked up a couple of option technics. I shall remain patient with both services to learn new trading strategies.   

The Majors Refused To Go Down 5-15-20

After Tuesday's near 3% selloff, the sentiment changed to bearish. It got confirmed the following day on social media. But the low of Thursday brought buyers in. I was surprised to see the big buying tail despite the 2.98 million unemployment claims which was much higher than the 2.5 million expected. -16.4% of retail sales v.s. -12% expected in April didn't deter the bulls today. IWM/RUT rose 1.6% while SPX gained 0.4%. It's a down week overall but there is a big buying tail on weekly. The uptrend held at the support. MACD is flat in daily, near cross up in weekly. It's a tricky market right now. Many heavyweights have been calling for another leg down. It hasn't happened for weeks now. We may see more choppy price action or another drop after retesting the breakout area.

My net liq was below 100K early this week. It finally got up to 100K yesterday. The leverage is still above 50. I was able to roll my next week's long put out for another week. I was going to do a risk reversal in SPX. Glad I couldn't do it on Wednesday due to the net liq shortage. My last client, Lao Don had to take his big loss of $76K on Thursday since his net liq is on 42K. My failure was realized. My account is still a time bomb out there. 

I have to be proactive. Should I close most of the long positions before a possible next leg down? 

I  signed up with Shadow Trader to learn more about this option practice. I plan to get on with the Insight Trade which is a more expensive, directional approach. The reviews seem positive. 

A Fake Out To The Downside 5-8-20

After the pullback of last week, I was expecting the downward movement to continue based on the deteriorating pandemic and economic conditions. The majors turned out to the opposite of my expectation. The 20 MA and 50 MA supported SPX and RUT respectively. The majors continued to rally on horrific jobless claims and NFP report. The market is often trying to fool most investors most of the time. 

My net liq is above 100K again. It closed at 105K today thanks to the rising stocks. The leverage is still above 5. The available funds are enough without adding hedges for this weekend. Next week's expiration may be tough if the majors continue to rally. I think the majors will retest the breakdown area of last week at least. NQ already recovered its loss of this year.

I failed to take stop losses for most of my ETFs. I reversed one position from short to long in Fidelity which recovered some of the losses. I need to keep my short term trade with the trend. Also looking for some sort of confirmation before pulling the trigger. I must continue to work on my stop losses.

Is The Tide Turning? 5-1-20

After a historical gain of April, the majors started selling off into May. SPX and RUT were down 2.8 and 3.8% respectively on Friday following the previous down day. They both hit their respected Fib levels of 62.8 and 50%. The economic news is pretty bad. The GDP is -4.8% for the first quarter. Unemployment claims for last week are 3.8 million v.s. 3.5 million expected. FOMC kept the rate unchanged and committed to supporting the economy with any means. The majors started dropping the day after the FOMC meeting with the technical levels reached. I think the sentiment and the direction of the majors are changing the negative again.

My net liq closed at 99.6K after stayed above 100K for a couple of days. The leverage is at 55. I was able to roll out a couple of deep ITM positions in both SPX and RUT. Looking at some of my pending orders I am glad I didn't flip my long puts to short calls during the surge last month.

I started to trade some leveraged ETFs last week. I didn't get the directions right most of the time so far. I think I may have to find some 2x leveraged ETF for short term swings and only day trade 3x ETFs. That will reduce my risks. I will joint an options trade service this weekend. I need to fix the Twitter SMS service.

My main question is that should I stay in the trading business? Getting a job is unlikely with the current economical condition. Is starting a new business an option? If so, what kind of business?
Think deep in both internal and external, pros, and cons of my next move.

A Pause 4-24-20

The majors took a pause this week. They all booked an inside week. SPX had its first losing week after four positive weeks. RUT is the weakest one but had a small gain this week. The jobless claims were 4.4 million, less than last week's 5+ million. The bad news is good news now. I guess there are some charities now. Earnings continue to be bad. Many companies won't provide guidance for the rest of the year. The next 2 quarters could be worse for businesses. The majors refuse to go down imply the upside may not be over yet. MACDs are turning lower but RSIs are around 50s, not showing overbought conditions. 

My net liq is at 88K. The leverage is still around 7. I couldn't do much of trading this week since the net liq is below the limit. The amount of the fund I spent to roll and hedge make it hard to recover. I listed the reasons in my review last week.

I started to trade leveraged ETFs this week. I bought some bearish index and VIX ETFs on Wednesday when the majors were fulling back 2-3%. I thought it was the start of the downturn after 3 weeks of bounce. I was wrong again. I will take my stops next week once my limits are reached. I need to work through this weakest link in my trading. 

The Rally Continues 4-17-20

The Majors continued rallying this week except for the small caps in the choppy range. The virus spreading or just the fears appear slowing down. The economy is not getting any better though. The jobless claims reached 5.3 million this week. SPX rallied almost 4% this week. It's parked right at its 50 SMA after today's 2.7% rally. After passing Fib 50%, the next target could be the 62% RT for SPX. RUT is the weaker one. It only hit its Fib of 38.2%.

My net liq closed at 93K. There is no position for this week after I reversed my SPX 2640SC to June 18 2950LP yesterday. This was a timely right move. The leverage is at 67. I am still in a hard and rock place.

My hedge of ES puts ended with a total near $5K loss. I am still bad at stop losses. This is my deadly bad habit. I kept hoping for a sudden drop. I totally ignored the price action in front of me. If I had stopped the loss and didn't flip the SPX 3250 to short call for $6.8K my net liq would have got back to 100K level now.

A Big Surge 4-9-20

The majors surged more than 10% in this shortened week after last week's pullback. The possible topping of the COVID-19 could have boosted the sentiment. The surge could be more technical patterns playing out, such as Fib and ABC. The 6.6 million unemployment claim was offset by FED's another $2.2 trillion programs. So far this surge could be still a bear rally. But it's impressive of a 20% bounce from the March lows.

My net liq is above 90K. A nice 1.2K recovery. The leverage is at 6.45. I was pretty bearish at the end of last week when SPX tried to break the 20 MA twice and failed. I was still single-minded expecting a breakdown. I placed ES puts in mid of last week. I committed over $5K and being greedy of doubling my money. I failed to prepare in case of the market against my thesis. My bad habit of not taking hard stops causes me the most of my puts. Hope is not a strategy.  Also, I had to roll my SPX 2640C to next week which caused me another $2600 without reducing any point yesterday. The two bad trades prevented my N.L to back to 100K.

I will continue to reduce my stocks if the market recovers more nest week. The majors retraced 50% so far. We may see a stall or a leg down soon. I will try to reverse a long put to a short call in RUT to balance my long and short.

Bulls Couldn't Hold 4-3-20

The majors retraced from last week's run. The bad news was overwhelming. The virus spread rapidly in the world. The economy in the US is hurting badly. Over 10 million people filed unemployment in the last two weeks. The market reacted to the bad news and horrible employment numbers better than I expected. SPX and RUT gave back 7% and 11% respectively. The bulls couldn't take the majors to cross the 20 DMA. VIX is below 50 for the first time in the last 4 weeks. It's still a bear market.

My net liq is above 80K. The leverage is at 10. My hands are still tied. Couldn't reverse any long put during the up days. I didn't have any position to expire this week. I only shortened one SPX short call from 4-24 to 4-9. I hesitated to flip my long put when the majors challenging 20 DMA.

I will try to reverse one long position from SPX and RUT. I have more RUT long puts than the short calls. I also have an SPX long put with 110K exposure. That must be reduced! My assumption is the bear market is not bottomed. There may be another leg down if the virus is not contained quickly. Plus, it will take a long while for the economy to recover. The question is not if there is a session, but how bad it will be because the virus is unpredictable.

A Bear Market Revenge 3-27-20

The past week was a long hoped and unexpected strong counter-trend rally. The majors recovered over 18%, except the small-cap was lagging at 15%. The market was very emotional. It played the typical of "buy on the rumor and sell on the news". The gap up on Tuesday was in anticipation of the $2 trillion rescue package. The 1000%, over 3 million unemployment claims on Thursday produced more than 4% gains while the passage of the 2 trillion dollar package produced more than 3% losses in the last 30 min before the market closing. I guess the market saw no more good news near term and was nervous over the weekend.

My net liq closed at 84K, upped 20K from last week due to the rally. The rally helped me to exit some of my long holdings, like HD, INTC, and IRAs. My main concerns are still on my long put options.

I will try to flip at least one long put in SPX and RUT next week. I will continue to exit my long term holdings to raise my cash levels. This downturn looks like a bad beginning rather than the end.

The Panic Continued 3-20-20

The market continued to panic as the COVID-19 virus spread around the world. The Fed lowered the interest rate to 0-0.25% and added $700 billion QE last Sunday, March 15. The index futures gapped down on the same evening despite the near 10% pop on the closing of prior Friday. Fed's stimulus package appeared no positive impact on the market. It might have provided liquidity to prevent total claps of the market. This week ended with another bear flag for all the majors. ES closed below 2018 low and below the 200 weekly MA. Friday was a big reversal day from positive to negative -5%. That's a bearish sign for the market next week. SPX looks like it's going to retest 2000 area which is the breakout area of 2016. RUT is closed at 1014, near its 2016 low of 943. The majors lost another 13% for the week.

My net liq stayed at 64K after selling 200 shares of QCOM for 13K, similar to last week. It's a bad situation. I am not allowed to add any positions except hedging or closing positions. I had to close 3 deep ITM RUT long put and roll 2 more. It cost over 100K cash. These long puts will continue to drain my cash. I don't have enough time to wait out this selloff.

I will have to calculate my current spread distance of the long puts to see how much they will cost me maximumly. My cash is not enough to cover all of the positions. I will have to sell most of my stocks whenever there is a pop. The problem is that my stocks have lost more than 30% of their values as well which reduced my net liq value as well.

A Big Crash 3-14-20

It was the biggest weekly drop since 1987. The bear flag patterns in the majors played out with a big gap down on Sunday night. The COVID-19 virus and OPEC failed to reach an oil production agreement were the two major factors. Every day of the week was more than 4% movement up or down. There were 8% of moves on Thursday and Friday. Luckily the last move of the 8% was an upward thrust in the last 30 minutes before Friday's closing. Overall the high VIX was never seen after the 2008 financial crises. It was heart ranching.

My net liq was below 100K for most of the week. I took a risk of borrowing another 20K from ET to rescue my long puts for the week. I rolled three of my four positions far out in time. I wanted to flip my last SPX 3430 LP but didn't get enough time before the closing. My NL dropped below 100K as the market dropped again on overnight and most of the Friday. I finally was able to flip it on Friday under pressure and paid 2K for it.

My borrowing power is almost depleted in both of my IB accounts. I will have to cut my losses under the worst conditions, as VIX is still above 50 and my longs are at maximum losses. But I have to do it in case the situation even gets worse. A zero balance is better than a negative balance. I plan to take a 100-200K loss in cash first.

The Volatility Surges 3-6-20

It was a very volatile week for the market. The price ranges were more than 3% daily. VIX is hanging above 30 even on the up days. VIX reached 54.39 on Friday, the highest level of the last 10 years. Although the majors recovered about half of the losses in the last 30 minutes of the session VIX is still closed at 42. The bear flag pattern is present in the daily charts of the majors. Also, they closed below last week's opens. Those are the bearish signs. On the other hand, they are technically oversold on the daily charts.

My portfolio was under $100K most of the days last week which limited my ability to move my positions around. The leverage is elevated above 8. Short calls were reduced by 2. The pressure is on the long puts but I limited ability to reverse the puts to calls.

I may be forced to close some of my long puts positions next week if the market continues to push lower which is likely. My personal account is faced liquidation by Monday. I spent $900 to roll it to Monday in the long put. I will have to stop loss at 30K or more on Monday. It's sad I didn't hold my rules of not trading the account. It dragged for over a year. I switched from long to short, then short to long last week. 

A Disastrous Breakdown! 2-28-20

The majors gapped down about 2% on Sunday night following a -1+% down last Friday. There were 3 of -3% days during the week. All of the bulls were disappeared. By Friday, The majors are in correction territory of -10% or more. Surprisingly how the market sentiment has changed from bullish to bearish. During the week, During the week buyers couldn't lift the market at all. It was panic selling all over the places. It's possible to see a 15-20% correction if not getting into a bear market.

My portfolio suffered a big loss for the week. Despite adding 20K to IB account borrowed from ET my net liq still ended way below 100K. It closed at 87K by the end of the week. I don't even have much room to borrow more funds. The 35K I returned to ET was brought back again. The leverage is at the highest level of 11.35.

I am very depressed and my hands are tied up now. I don't have much room to adjust or reverse my positions. I had to close one SPX and one RUT long put to reduce stop losses for about $52K on Friday. In my personal account, I was forced to close the short call of 2820C and roll out the long of 3220 which was pushed deep ITM in the fall of this week. I had to take a 7.9K loss instead of a 25K loss. The account could face liquidation soon if the market continues to fall.

Is The Tide Turning for Real This Time? 2-21-20

The majors reached new highs on Wednesday. Then it started to a selloff in Thursday morning session without any notable news. Technically speaking, SPX hit the Fib 23.6% target from the early January's low. But it stayed above the Fib target for several days. I thought it could have one more leg to reach the Fib 50% target at the 3410-20 area.  SPX gave back about 1.7% for the last two days while NQ falls more than 3%. RUT gave back around 1.5%. The dip buyers got knocked on their heads pretty bad today. Both MACD and RSI are turning downward but MACDs haven't had any red bars on daily. This may be a normal technical pullback which matches the majors' seasonality. Early March could be a deeper pullback in SPX seasonally.

My net liq stay at 118K about the same level in Feb. The Leverage and options values are still elevated at 5.4 and -431K respectively. The situation hasn't improved much. The downturn could present more danger if the selloff persists to more than 5%.

The key tasks are survival and downsize. I need to review my plan for 2020 this weekend. I haven't reduced a single ITM position as my plan required for 2020.

A Trick Track Market 2-8-2020

The majors started the week reversing the downward trend of last week. I was worried about a further sell-off last Sunday night. The rebound was very strong. SPX and RUT made continuous three-day gap ups. By Thursday, SPX made a new ATH of 3348 which was a 120 points move in four days. RUT made an 85 points move for the same period and retest the breakdown area of two weeks ago. Then it came to a small selloff on Friday. The majors were falling down after a better than expected NFP report ( 224K vs 154K expected). ES and RTY closed down -0.67 and 1.4% respectively. It was a really tricky movement for the week. The MACD is turning up in the daily while turning down in the weekly chart. But there are no crossing on either. It's hard to tell the market direction right now. The 20-year seasonals are showing a choppy to slightly downside movement.

My portfolios are pressured further by the week's reversal since I had to reverse a long put to a short call during the selloff a week ago. My net liq is 110Ks, barely above the board line. The leverage is also around 5.5. It's too high above my target of below 4. The delta is balanced but won't be able to stand a more than 1% move up or down.

I have come to realize that I need to aggressively reduce my options sizes. Since I had more long puts during the first part of January's surge. I was able to pill off more long puts. But the selloff on January 24th locked an extra long put in each asset. The wild movements of the last two weeks weakened my net liq. I have to hold the net liq lines and reduce margins by reducing sizes right now. I may look for other ways to recover the losses late. The key is to survive first.

Greatness comes from the ability to get out of bad trades!

The Change of Trend 1-24-20

The market was choppy during this shortened week. It finally gave in today. SPX and RUT closed down -1% and 1.35% respectively. Both of them retested yesterday's highs and failed. And both of them closed below the lows of yesterday. It looks like a current trend top is in.

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to exit any of my long put. Now the pressure switched to the downside. Our portfolios suffered big drawdowns. My net liq is barely above 120K. The leverage is above 5 for the first time in January. My excess liquidity is only 1.3K. I have to deal with it on Monday. I have spent too much money on hedging. The only way to reduce it is to reduce the size.

Assuming this may be a 5-10% pullback what should I do to reduce my risk. The previous lessons are should be remembered. One is to act early when a trend changes. Should I reverse a couple of longs to shorts? Then watch for the trend change again. I will work on my solutions over this weekend.

Back On Riding The Horse 1-17-20

I can't believe that I haven't been writing my journal for five weeks since the mid of last December. Meanwhile, the market continues raising without any meaningful pullback. Even the Iran misle strike didn't scare the bulls. The futures dropped 1.5% at night then, closed in the positive territory the next day.  SPX kept making new highs in January. It closed above 3320. RUT broke out above 1700. The previous ATH is 1742. It's likely it will test that level. The January effect is in play.

I am still playing catch up game. Every week I roll up some points after the old positions expired. The Deltas are constantly in negative territory. I missed the chances of reversing my short calls back in late Nov and early Dec of last year. My net liq is barely above 130K. The leverage is above 450.

Is it too late to make the delta positive? I noted my bias and shortcoming back in Nov and Dec journals. The decision is more important than the effort. The effort will have meaning and positive results only following the right choice and decision.