The Bull Kept Going 5-29-20

It's another up week. The bull kept going despite the bear's attack. The pattern has been down in the morning and rally by noon until closing. SPX is above its 200 SMA for 3 days. It retested the 200 SMA today and bounced off from there. RUT is working on its Fib 61.8. It closed below the level today. It is still 80 points from its 200 SMA. MACD and RSI are up but no sign of overbought. The US and China tension over HK, COVID-19, and high jobless claims haven't deterred the bulls. 

My net liq barely claimed back above 100K today. The leverage is above 5 again. My RUT risk reversal from bear call to bull put was badly timed yesterday, alone with the SPX 3050 put split. I had to roll the SPX 3050 put to 3040 for Monday. 

I have been trading the two services for about 2 wks now. The shadow trader is slow and conservative. I have made about $100 so far. Peter's daily market perspective is helpful to get a sense of the market conditions. The insight options style is fast and most in day trading. I haven't quite get used to the speed. I am down $1000 so far. One of the reasons is still related to my bad habit of taking stops. I need to prepare for his watch list and get ready to trigger. Also, I need to recognize my emotions and try to control them. It's always the fear and greedy rotating places. I have to closely follow their trading rules. 

The Market Has A Destination? 5-22-20

The majors gapped up to April's high areas on Monday. They stayed there for the whole week despite several attempts of pushing down. They are above their 20 and 50 MAs with bullish postures. NQ has been above its 200 MA for weeks. The majors' MACD turned green on weekly but RSIs are not over 60. That indicates they may have more room in the upside. On the other hand, the flat top formation may fall off at any time. The economy is not doing well at all. The fed provided plenty of liquidity may be the main force holding the financial market. Is SPX designated to test its 200MA at 3000 area?

My net liq is at 107K. The leverage is at 4.78. They are improved but still vulnerable. There was no major positions exit for this week. I hope my SPX 2950 could be exited next week. 

I signed up another short term trading service - Elite Options last Sunday night. It's almost a day trading options in breakout style. It's a very fast pasted action. I have missed a couple of good calls since they tend to move quickly. My result for the first week is -$138. Shadow Trader is slower pasted and provides more market analysis. The trading hasn't generated many positive results. I have picked up a couple of option technics. I shall remain patient with both services to learn new trading strategies.   

The Majors Refused To Go Down 5-15-20

After Tuesday's near 3% selloff, the sentiment changed to bearish. It got confirmed the following day on social media. But the low of Thursday brought buyers in. I was surprised to see the big buying tail despite the 2.98 million unemployment claims which was much higher than the 2.5 million expected. -16.4% of retail sales v.s. -12% expected in April didn't deter the bulls today. IWM/RUT rose 1.6% while SPX gained 0.4%. It's a down week overall but there is a big buying tail on weekly. The uptrend held at the support. MACD is flat in daily, near cross up in weekly. It's a tricky market right now. Many heavyweights have been calling for another leg down. It hasn't happened for weeks now. We may see more choppy price action or another drop after retesting the breakout area.

My net liq was below 100K early this week. It finally got up to 100K yesterday. The leverage is still above 50. I was able to roll my next week's long put out for another week. I was going to do a risk reversal in SPX. Glad I couldn't do it on Wednesday due to the net liq shortage. My last client, Lao Don had to take his big loss of $76K on Thursday since his net liq is on 42K. My failure was realized. My account is still a time bomb out there. 

I have to be proactive. Should I close most of the long positions before a possible next leg down? 

I  signed up with Shadow Trader to learn more about this option practice. I plan to get on with the Insight Trade which is a more expensive, directional approach. The reviews seem positive. 

A Fake Out To The Downside 5-8-20

After the pullback of last week, I was expecting the downward movement to continue based on the deteriorating pandemic and economic conditions. The majors turned out to the opposite of my expectation. The 20 MA and 50 MA supported SPX and RUT respectively. The majors continued to rally on horrific jobless claims and NFP report. The market is often trying to fool most investors most of the time. 

My net liq is above 100K again. It closed at 105K today thanks to the rising stocks. The leverage is still above 5. The available funds are enough without adding hedges for this weekend. Next week's expiration may be tough if the majors continue to rally. I think the majors will retest the breakdown area of last week at least. NQ already recovered its loss of this year.

I failed to take stop losses for most of my ETFs. I reversed one position from short to long in Fidelity which recovered some of the losses. I need to keep my short term trade with the trend. Also looking for some sort of confirmation before pulling the trigger. I must continue to work on my stop losses.

Is The Tide Turning? 5-1-20

After a historical gain of April, the majors started selling off into May. SPX and RUT were down 2.8 and 3.8% respectively on Friday following the previous down day. They both hit their respected Fib levels of 62.8 and 50%. The economic news is pretty bad. The GDP is -4.8% for the first quarter. Unemployment claims for last week are 3.8 million v.s. 3.5 million expected. FOMC kept the rate unchanged and committed to supporting the economy with any means. The majors started dropping the day after the FOMC meeting with the technical levels reached. I think the sentiment and the direction of the majors are changing the negative again.

My net liq closed at 99.6K after stayed above 100K for a couple of days. The leverage is at 55. I was able to roll out a couple of deep ITM positions in both SPX and RUT. Looking at some of my pending orders I am glad I didn't flip my long puts to short calls during the surge last month.

I started to trade some leveraged ETFs last week. I didn't get the directions right most of the time so far. I think I may have to find some 2x leveraged ETF for short term swings and only day trade 3x ETFs. That will reduce my risks. I will joint an options trade service this weekend. I need to fix the Twitter SMS service.

My main question is that should I stay in the trading business? Getting a job is unlikely with the current economical condition. Is starting a new business an option? If so, what kind of business?
Think deep in both internal and external, pros, and cons of my next move.