Volatility Picked Up 10-30-2020

 Volatility surged from last Sunday night when the futures opened. SPX 3400 failed to hold on Monday. Then, the watershed started. The majors dropped 3% or more on Wednesday. By the end of the week, SPX and NQ are back to retest the September low of 3200s. The small-cap faired a little better. It pulled back about 50% from the same period but closed under 50 SMA. The difference may mean something. The election uncertainty and the resurging of COVID-19 are the driving forces. The market seasonality is in play as well. 

My netliq is up to 120K. The leverage is at 3.37. These deep ITM bear calls helped. I am waiting for the election result to reverse one or two bear calls once the dust is settled. My saga of loss in ET continues. I reversed 2 long puts to short calls. I was able to close the early one of 3360C today. I am left with a long put and short call both deep ITM. I have to maneuver around according to the election result. I am limited to available funds which makes it difficult. I could be choked to death at some point. A fatal mistake I made by not stopping my loss according to my rules. 

A Week Of Hurry And Wait 10-23-20

 This week ended lower for SPX while RUT gained a little. On daily, the majors swung up and down wildly. The main event affecting the market was the stimulus talk. A deal hasn't been made as of this Friday night. The majors are holding their bull flag on the weekly charts. VIX is at 29. Don't know how the election would affect the market. It may very much depend on if there is a clear winner. 

I have reduced my long puts by one for SPX and RUT and made them closer to the money in case the market drops after the election. If it pops I will have to reverse a short call in my IB acct. I am still struggling with the failed stop loss from last week in ET. The three long puts weathered this week's wild swings. Another hard lesson learned. It's harder than I expected to change my old, bad trading habit. It may take me a few more weeks to get out of the long puts in ET. The one in FI was expired worthless today. 

The net liq in IB is down to 111K and the leverage is at 362. I spent about $8K to roll 2 deep ITM short calls this week. I have entered about $700 SPY and IWN long put spreads to hedge the election. I may add more to both sides next week. I am also thinking about buying some VIX ETNs. But I don't have a good record of trading such products. I have some of them underwater spread in my accounts. 

A Choppy & Rough Week 10-16-20

 It was a choppy but rough week. The majors had wild swings. SPX closed barely above the high of last week while RUT and NQ held the breakout lows after this afternoon's big pullback. The majors closed at the low of today after the morning's gap up and push higher. It feels bearish at the end. The upward move was interrupted by the failure of the stimulus deal and the surge of COVID-19 cases here and in Europe. The unpredictable election is closing in. The market will be uneasy and spooky for awhile. But the uptrend is still intact. 

My net liq closed at 112K, unchanged from last week. The leverage is 372. The collected premium is about $3100 after spending $7K to roll 2 bear calls up. The way I roll my deep ITM bear calls couldn't catch up on the market's movement. I am trying to flip 1 each to the long side. I need a new approach to my trading. 

I failed to enforce my stop loss rules again this Monday in my 0 DTE trades. I got too emotional when my bear call spreads were challenged but not touched. I had a chance to place my stops in the IF and call spreads but didn't enforce it. I flip them to the put side and reduce the number of contracts. Then the failed stimulus talk new hit the market on Wednesday and the selloff pushed my positions deep ITM for 1.5-2+%. I had to roll out further and wider to keep it afloat. It has been the old, bad practice repeat. I am reliving the nightmare. The bad habit kicks in although I knew it was wrong. It doesn't make any sense to risk thousands to make a hundred. I will not trade the 0 DTE until I recover from this loss. I will not trade 0 DTE and Recovery hedge again without having a stop loss in place. Period. 

The Trend Is Up Again 10-9-20

 The majors closed in the green for this week again. SPX is up for the third week while RUT booked its 2nd week up to 1637, close to the Feb ATH of 1715. NQ is relatively weak after leading the up and down in the last two months. Are the majors retesting the previous highs before the election or setting up for new highs after the election? The seasonals are bullish for the last three months of the year. Of course, the market is still very nervous about the election result and the impact of Covid-19 on the economy. 

I had a good week trading 0 DTE and collecting premiums in my regular positions. It's all winners for the 0 DTE both CS and IF this week thanks to the lower vol conditions. I need to be more selective trading the O DTE base on the market conditions. I still don't have the stop-loss rules fully enforced. It happened twice this week the prices blew through before I was able to put in my stop orders. Luckily both of them were recovered. One of these days the luck will run out and wipe out my months of profit. Keep remembering the lessons. 

My netliq is down to 112K due to the uptrend and the reduces long puts. The leverage is at 3.7. There are 3 RUT and 4 SPX long puts expired worthless this week. My delta is totally negative now. I will add long puts further ITM but fewer contracts. I will look hard to see where I can reverse 1-2 short calls to long puts. 

Is The Volatility Near End 10-2-20

 The majors booked a weekly gain except for the tech-heavy NASDAQ. The VIX is also in green for the third week. The small-cap is leading the charge. The market may continue to be volatile with many present risk factors, such as the pandemic and election. Seasonally the early October is unsettling. 

My net liq is about 10K higher than last week as the market recovers. The leverage is 3.3. I am just adopting the market one day at a time. The 0 DTE is working fairly well this week. I didn't have any normal stop out. The 9/30 long puts were a sudden news event. My order got filled and blew through within a minute once the stimulus talk failed. I didn't even have time to prepare my stop-loss order. I had to roll it out and it got closed today. I am lucky to roll out twice and recovered the losses. But it won't last long. I have to firm up my stop rules. 

No new vendor is selected this week. I am still trying to clearly define what are my objectives and how could I incorporate another trading system into my current practices.