Bear Kicked Santa Off His Sleigh 12-31-22

 The expected Santa rally didn't happen in this Christmas-shortened week. The bears are in control. The major indices closed slightly lower for the week again. They are still below their 20, 50 SMAs. We are into the seasonal pop and dump in January. Would this January be different since there was no Santa Rally?

The IB Netliq increased 6K from 183K to 189K, +3.3% for the week. The realized P/L is -$10878. There were a couple of long-term DITM rollouts to next Feb and March. The collected premiums are $10,980. Several of my BF hedges worked and expanded. The added positions from the BF expansion presented more risks. I need to reduce these positions quickly. 

I reduced trading 0 DTE for this week. The market was jumpy with less volume. TOS collected $1,250 for the week. There is $800 from one 1DTE IC. I broke the S/L rule. So it's a bad trade. There were no trades in the IB account. 

Lessons Learned: 

1. The morning meditations helped to keep me calm and focused;

2. My stop-loss rules are relaxed. I need to have a clear plan for adjustments and stop-loss rules. It should be one hedge or adjustment only. Then the stop-loss must be enforced. 

No Santa Rally Yet 12-23-22

 The majors booked another losing week in a Doji formation. We may not see a Santa Rally in the bear market this year. It may be range bound for the end of the year. The major indices are under their 20, and 50 SMAs daily and weekly. It's a bearish indication. 

The IB Netliq ended at 183K, up 3%, 5.4K for the week. The leverage is down slightly from 240 to 230 as the VIX stayed low. The realized P/L is a mere $250. It recovered from a 10K loss on Thursday's GDP selloff. The premiums are $3,988. The spread and butterfly hedges contributed to the gains. 

The 0 DTE strategy didn't perform well. Many other traders have indicated the same results in the FB group. It only collected $965 for the week. I didn't trade in IBP for 2 days because of news events and missed entries. I used hedges to void S/L. The effect is limited to low vols. I need to stick to the S/L rules. 

Lessons Learned:

1. Do not relax my self-discipline. I can't use the hedge strategies to replace the S/L rules. It could only reduce the losses to a degree. 

2. Patience is the key. I tend to change my plan because I am impatience. It often leads to poor performance. 

3. Identify the type of day for trading strategies. Analyze the trend at beginning of each day and mark the key levels.  

 

FOMC Set The Market Back 12-16-22

 The major indices gave back all of the gains of last week. FOMC reset the market sentiment back to reality. The bears are back in control again. SPX and Dow are the only two holding above their 200 WSMA. Are we going to see a seasonal Santa rally this year? We will know next week. 

IB Netliq is up 9% from 161K to 177K for the week. The leverage is down from 271 to 240. VIX is at 22.5,  not much elevated despite the selloff. The realized P/L is $4537. It is better than the loss of $2332 last week. The premium collected is only $1.1K. None of my hedges worked this week. CPI and FOMC turned out to be range bound.     

The 0 DTE didn't perform well with the current market conditions. The premium collection is only $853. There was no trade on FOMC day. I had to take partial S/L twice in TOS and spent some funds to buy hedges. The hedging strategy could work partially under normal market conditions. It should not replace my S/L roles. 

Lessons Learned:

1. I improved on my S/L orders. I am still not strictly mechanically in S/L. I often look for hedges first. It could turn out to be a disaster if the market is strongly trending in one of these days. I should be willing to take a big loss with this practice. 

2. I keep practicing meditation in the morning. It helps keep me calm during the day. 

3. I need to be more disciplined. When in doubt don't place the trade. 

The Sea-Saw Accounts 12-9-22

 The major indices gave back all of the J.Powell-induced rally gains this week. They closed the week in the red after the previous two weeks' gains.  The bears are back in control now. The market is waiting for the CPI and FOMC next week. 

The IB Netliq is up 1.4K from 160K to 161.4K for the week. The leverage is down slightly from 278 to 271. The realized P/L is down $2.3K. The collected premiums are $2125. I traded 4 1DTE IC this week. They were all $200 winners because of the steady volatility. 

The 0 DTE worked well this week. I finally closed the TOS short calls from 4 weeks ago. The trades almost choked me. TOS and IBP  collected $1862, and $1372 cash each. I made the same mistake again today. I let the winners become losers. I didn't enforce my stop-loss rules. I was hoping for the last 30 min selloff to bounce. I could have placed a stop-loss order to book 50% of the gains. I still need to work on my entry and stop losses. 

Lessons Learned:

1. Adjust stop losses to protect the profit. It's better to leave some money on the table than take losses.  

2. Self-discipline!!! What would the best traders do in a similar situation? Another disaster will happen if I don't change.        

A J. Powell Induced Rally 12-2 -22

The major indices closed another up week. The market was waiting for J. Powell's speech on Wednesday. As soon as J. Powell said the Fed might slow down the rate hike the market took off to the upside.  SPX and RUT rallied 3% and 2.8%. They both closed above their 200D SMA. NQ is the only one still below its 200D SMA. The NFP report today was better than expected. The implied inflation nature caused a selloff in the morning. The majors recovered most of their losses by the end of the day. The bulls are in control so far. The SPX Doji on Thursday is still a concern unless it gets crossed next week. 

The IB Netliq is down 3.3K from 163.55K to 160.25 K. The leverage is up 4.6% from 268 to 278. Vix is at a low 20 now. The realized P/L is -1.2K. The weekly collected cash is $4K. I hit twice 1K hedges this week. One of the hedge expansions suffered on the 3% rally Wednesday. I must not be too greedy on big market moves.   

The 0 DTE is still in the dump. I was sucked deeper into the SCs after the 3% rally on Wednesday. The two accounts collected $2.3K for the week. Thanks to two 5x hedges paid off. 

The lessons are still the same:

1. Learn what the best-disciplined traders would do. 

2. Take stops to void bigger losses.

3. Make improvement one step at a time. 

The Seasonal Rally Is Intact 11-25-22

 The major indices closed up this Thanks Giving week. The formations are conflicting. In the shorter term, they are in daily and weekly bull flags. However, the bear channel of 2020 is still intact. The weekly lower lows and lower highs have not changed. So far the shorter term is bullish. The long-term is bearish.

The IB Netliq was up 14K before I sent 10K back to ETP. The leverage is down 4% from 268 to 279. The realized P/L is 6035. The cash premiums are $1437. The favorable figures were helped by the low VIX and consolidated price ranges. 

My 0 DTE continued suffering from the TOS SCs. I was able to reverse one of the SCs to SP. The SP was closed on Wednesday. It reduced my risk and margin. The cash collected is only about $500. I didn't trade in IBP on Wednesday due to the FOMC Minutes release. Friday was a half day. I didn't want to take the risk. 

The lessons learned:

1. Recognize the None Stop trade causes much more with required high margin and lost opportunity;

2. I set a goal for trading like the best-disciplined traders. I need to constantly remind myself of every trade. Take a short pain in order to void the long pain. Failure is not an option from now on.  

A Resting Week 11-18-22

 The major indices took a breath this week after the big surges of last week. They closed slightly down for the week but held support levels. It appears the rally is not fading. The expected seasonal pullback hasn't happened yet. Could it happen during the Thanks Giving week? 

IB Net liq increased by 26.3K for the week. It benefited mainly from the range-bound market. The leverage is down 21%, from 353 to 280. The realized P/L is - $68K mainly from the roll-out of early this year. The collected cash is $1.12K. Overall it was a less eventful week.  

The 0 DTE trades are still in a slump. The 3 TOS SCs are still suffering from my mistake. I was only able to increase about 5K B/P. IBP has one stop out. I didn't trade the 0 DTE today due to the OPEX. This week's cash income is barely $300. 

Lessons Learned:

1. Double-check the orders, especially during the volatile time. 

2. Recognizing my emotions. The daily medication practice helped me to stay calm. 

3. Do not wave the stop-loss rules in the moment of heat. Stay disciplined.    

A Big Reversal After A Better CPI Report 11-11-2022

 The major indices staged a significant reversal after Thursday's 0.2-0.3% better-than-expected CPI report Thursday. SPX and RUT gained 5.5 and 6.5% on that day alone. It's the best one-day gain since Feb 2020. QQQ performed the best with an 8% gain. This reversal is the best week of the year so far. It may be the start of the year-end rally. 

The IB Netliq is down 0.6K for the week. I wasn't prepared for that big reversal after the CPI. The leverage is up from 337 to 353, +4.5%. The realized P/L is -$9.2K. The collected cash is only $1.46K. I missed the big runup last two days. The loss was partially caused by my breaking the -1+1 rule. 

The 0 DTE system dragged by the ITM positions in TOS. The 3 3880 SCs are deep ITM after the CPI 5.5% rally. The 2 small accounts collected $3.8K cash. TOS booked over 20K losses with the ITM SCs. I am still working to unwind these positions.  It was caused by my fear of losing and my failure to stop. 

Lessons Learned:

1. I can only control my actions. I can't control the market behavior. That's why I have to follow my rules. 

2. Always look for the opposite possibility. Compare alternative solutions for my objectives. 

3. Meditation is helping me to stay calm. Keep practicing it daily. 

A Week In Red After FOMC 11-4-22

 The major indices gave back their gains after FOMC raised another 0.75% rate on Wednesday. The rest of the week was volatile in exploring directions. The majors closed this week in the red. The indices' downtrends are still intact. The large caps and small caps are in a better place than SPX and NQ.  The catalysts for next week are the mid-term election and CPI report on Tuesday and Thursday. 

The IB Netliq is up 33K to 133K. The leverage was down to 337 from 492 last week. It's the first time below 400 in the previous two months. The options' value decreased by 20K from 372K to 351K. The realized P/L is 37.6K. The cash collected is $1.9K. I estimated about $500 in interest and dividends. The good results for the week were mainly from the reduced size and risk. Luck in the none directional week is a factor too. 

The 0 DTE didn't do well this week. It only collected about $1000. I skipped trading on FOMC Wednesday. I didn't manage well my TOS 3700 SPs. It was a big reversal day after the NFP report. My SCs were stopped right before the price fall. My SPs were too early and threatened as well. I lowered the SPs by adding SCs before the 2:30 reversal. The fear of losing took place despite of I already had LP hedges in place. Then, the 1.5% rally in EOD pushed the SCs ITM. I didn't have a stop-loss plan for the SCs. I had to roll the 3745 SCs to next Monday. I also made mistake in the contract quantities. I reversed 4 instead of 3 contracts. The risk was increased and carried to next week. 

Lessons learned:

1. Patience is still my problem. I should pay more attention to the time of the day. There are certain times when the market tends to be more active and make count-trend moves. 

2. Try to recognize my emotions, especially during a volatile time.  Learn to step back and wait. 

3. Void over managing my positions.  It may not be worth adjusting anything less than 10 strikes. 

Another Green Week 10-28-22

 The major indices booked another green week. It was the 2nd positive week for the majors except DJ had the third green week. Most of the large techs have had poor ERs. AAPL, the largest stock in valuation saved the market on Friday. AAPL was up 7% while AMZN was down 6%. Seasonality has played a role in this rally. We may see a pullback in early to mid-November before the final year-end rally. The mid-term election on Nov 8 could be a catalyst. 

The IB Netliq is up 2K. It barely crossed the 100K mark. The leverage is down 10 points at 4.92. The collected cash is $2.1K. The realized P/L is $47K. It's still a see-saw effect for the P/L. The options short value is up 3.7K. The week was working well until Friday. The 2.5% rally on Friday caught me by surprise. It got my IB Netliq upside down. SPX is finally closed above its 50D SMA following RUT. 

The 0 DTE system performed well with a twist in hedging. It collected $3.28K cash. I took a couple of stops early in the week. I fought the trends in the trending days. I voided any overnight rollovers. However, I did a couple of intra-day risk reversals. The hedges in LCs made about $800 on Friday. It was the best week in October. 

The lessons learned:

1. Need to identify the day type early in the day from reading indicators and internals;

2. Be flexible to change bias as the market changes; 

3. Don't fight the trend;

4. Reduce the positions is still my priority for IB;

Back Above June Low 10-21-22

 The major indices closed in the green for this week. They all backed above the 200 WMA except for the small caps. Only Friday's 2+% rally saved the week. It's an encouraging sign within the bear market. Seasonally we are near or at the end-of-year rally. 

The IB Netliq is up 4.5K this week. It could have been better. But I was a bit heavy on the SCs before Friday's rally. The leverage is down 10% from 554 to 503. The realized P/L is $67K. However, the 380K options value didn't change much. The portfolio is like a see-saw. When the calls get off the book the weight goes into the puts. The only solution I can think of is reducing the positions' size. The cash collected is $2400. It's mainly from the three hedges that paid off. 

The 0 DTE is underperformed but profitable. It collected $1900 cash. I had several stops with the wild price swings. I don't feel terrible about the S/L now. I know I can make it back in a few days. I need to work on the S/L orders in IB. There were two stop-limit orders that got skipped. I should just use market orders. 

Lessons Learned:

1. I am more patient now. My daily meditation helps to keep me calm. 

2. I recognized that I still have the Fear of Lossing, FOL. Especially when I am trading the 0 DTE. 

3. I must be more disciplined in adding positions during volatile times. My patience saved me from additional troubles. My anxiety caused me to make mistakes.  

Another Wild Down Week 10-14-22

 The major indices ended with another losing week. The attempted rally after the CPI report failed again on Friday. Thursday was one of the biggest reversal range days in 2022. SPX had a 5.5%, almost 200-point swing. It gave back most of the gains by Friday. SPX is hanging on the 200 SMA weekly while NQ and RUT have been below it for the last 3 weeks. The downtrend continues leading lower. 

The IB Netliq fell below 100K again after the 5+% swing on Thursday. I overreacted to the poor CPI report before the market opened. The leverage is up 13%, from 483 to 554. The realized P/L is -7.1K. The P/L had 10K gains before I mishandled it on Thursday. The cash collected was $4K. It had a 1K hedge win and 1.8K from rolling. 

The 0 DTE system had a positive week. TOS booked 2.3K cash. It had the largest hedging profit of $3.2K on Thursday and the largest S/L of $930x3 today. The market S/L was set at $390. The IBP had an S/L order that got skipped during Thursday's rally. I had to roll the 2 SCs to next Monday. The account collected $882 for the week. It was a roller-coaster week. 

Lessons learned for this week:

1. Stay calm and make a plan before major news events. I was pretty sure the CPI report was going to drop the market. I failed to consider the opposite possibilities. 

2. Stay disciplined. I have been placing S/L orders for every 0 DTE trade this week. That's major progress. Stay on the course. I have noticed that I had fear of losing some time. 

3. Be patient. Watch for the trend and levels before entering any order. 

Strong Bear Market Rally 10-7-22

 The bear rally started on the first trading day of Oct after the big selloff on September 30th. The major indices gained more than 5% in the first two days of the week. The last time the market surged this much was the Covid crush in 2020.  I was caught in the rally with more SCs. Then, it gave back more than half of the gains over the previous three days of the week. We may see a new low next week if the seasonality plays out. An end-of-year rally may follow the last leg down.    

The IB Netliq is up 3K to 103K for the week. It had a big swing during the rally and fall. The leverage is down from 533 to 517. The realized P/L is $8132. The P/L was mainly from the unwinding of the SCs. It is basically a wash. The collected cash is only $240. No hedges worked this week. 

The 0 DTE suffered another setback because of my mistake again. I failed to take an S/L of SCs in TOS on Monday. I rolled 5 3690 SCs during the 2.6% surge on Monday. Then, the SCs were ITM during the 3% pop on Tuesday. I was forced to roll up and out into Wednesday. I decided to unwind these positions on Thursday to void NFP risk on Friday. I spent $3.5K to close three of the five positions to make the risk more manageable. Although the positions were OTM by the end of Thursday. I paid dearly for my mistake. But I feel good for taking the loss. I reduced my risk. The rest of the trades were winners for this week. TOS account lost $2430 this week. IBP gained about $300. The net loss is about $2100. I can recover the loss if I follow my rules strictly. 

I need to be more aggressively reducing the positions in IB. I have been peddling in the mud for over 6 years. I am getting deeper in the mud. I will make stops in the reversal positions once they are wrong. The system is not working without risk control. 

New Lows Of The Year 9-30-22

 The majors kept falling to their new lows of 2022 except for the small caps. SPX closed right at the 200 SMA weekly. YM and NQ both breached this level on the weekly closing. The inflation numbers stayed high. The job market is still hot. Fed wants to press the economy down. They tend to overdo it in both directions. 

The IB Netliq is down 7K from 99K to 92K for the week. The leverage is up slightly from 588 to 598. The realized P/L is only $1467. The cash collection is only $270. I didn't have many hedges worked out. 

For the month of September, the netliq is down 34% from 140K to 92K. I was adding and rolling the BCs actively. The result shows that I still wasn't aggressive enough. I was afraid of a bounce or rally like in July in the back of my mind. The realized gain/recovery is $91K. Most of them were expired SCs. The SPs went deeper into ITM. Hope the expected seasonal rally will recover IB netliq. The premium collected is a mere $230.  

The 0 DTE worked with a couple of S/Ls. The vol is high. ET had no trade since I had to move it to IB. TOS collected $1K. IBP made $400 for part of the week. 

Overall, it was a volatile and challenging month to trade. I need to put my bias aside. Be more objective view the market directions. 

Down To June Lows 9-23-22

 The major indices closed another negative week. They are down 5 of the last 6 weeks. The selloff intensified after FOMC on Wednesday.  SPX, RUT, and NQ tested the lows from last June and held them so far. Dow closed below the June low. It holds at the 200 weekly SMA. The sentiments and technicals are very bearish. We may see a bounce or consolidation next week. 

I missed the weekly review last week due to my traveling to DC. The following numbers are for the 2 weeks. 

IB Netliq is down 28K for the last 2 weeks. It closed at 99K on Friday. I have tried to reverse my LP to SC so many times. All of them were OFTM. I need to identify the levels more closely. The leverage increased 25%, from 401 to 535. The realized P/L is $68K. They are mainly from expired SCs. But the value of my total options increased by $27K. The value of SPs has jumped a lot during the selloff. The cash collected is - $2K. I had to spend 2.6K to roll 2 SP last week. There were a couple of hedges paid off and the others expired worthless.      

The 0 DTE took a big blow in the ET account. I had 2 SPs split from the 2 SCs on the day of JP's Jackson Hole speech on August 26. A mistake I made to roll the SPs. I kept rolling it as SPX continued to fall. I didn't fully understand the rule of Day Trade Calls. I made 2 trades on Sept 22 to reduce the SPs by 5 points. It triggered another Day Trade Call. The ET account was restricted to closing positions only on Friday unless I put up $167K cash to remove the restriction. I couldn't come up with that much cash on the same day. I tried different approaches to resolve the problem but ET won't allow any of them. The spread had expanded from 80X to 325X. The two spreads were assigned for $32500 each. A total cash loss of $65,000. This is my biggest cash loss by far. It wiped out my total gains for 2022. The loss is about my living expenses for a year or the cost of a luxury car. I really hate my behavior and lack of willpower. 

I am going to sit in the penalty box in ET for a week. I will likely transfer this account to another broker to erase the Day Trading Calls. 

My hard rule is "No stop no trade" now. 

Am I self-distructive? 

The Support Lines Held 9-9-22

 It was a short week after the Labor Day long weekend. The major indices staged a turnaround. SPX and RUT hit their support at 3900 and 1790 respectively. The price action matches the seasonal trend so far. There could be a pump and dump in mid of Sept. 

IB Netliq is up 5K to 128.6K after returning 10.5K to ETQ. The realized P/L is $12.5K including some rollouts in August. The leverage is up 10% from 328 to 366. The collected cash is $1897. There were two hedges paid off for over $2K. It was a reasonably good week. I was a bit too heavy in SC at the end of the week. 

The 0 DTE was dragged by the ITM SPs in ET until the end of the week. The total cash collected is only $2,180 since ET didn't bring in any money.  The None stop rule has cost too many potential profits. 

Lessons Learned:

1. I have improved my patience. I was able to wait for price waves to come to me. I shall continue to practice it consciously. 

2. I remembered to place my stop loss orders right after each of my orders get filled. 

Another Storm Is Brewing 9-2-22

 The major indices booked their third week of this downturn. They tried to challenge their 50D SMA but failed again. The NFP on Friday produced positive reactions initially. The bears came in mid-day and reversed the course. The downtrend is clearly present. The seasonality is indicating possibly further downside.  

The IB Netliq is up 14.3K from 127K to 141.6K. The market didn't have more than 1.6% swings. I was actively adjusting my delta positions. The leverage is down 15% from 386 to 334. The realized P/L is $13,661. The collected cash is only $271. There are some SC positions off the book for the week. I will continue to watch my position sizes. I haven't been able to return the additional 20K cash back to BOA yet. 

The 0 DTE performed poorly for this week. It collected $1450 cash only. It booked a P/L of -$14,420. The loss was from my mishandling of ET on the Jackson Hole's speech. I didn't have a stop loss plan when I rolled down the SPX SC positions. It dragged the account down for over a week so far. I got into this hole right after I unwinded the TOS SC position. 

Lessons Learned:

1. I have entered SL orders most of the time. I also took stops a couple of times. However, I wasn't consistently placing stop orders. The ET SP was a good example. The lost time and opportunities affected the account negatively. 

2. Be patient and disciplined.  I started to notice my anxiety and the urge for action. I was able to remind myself to be more patient. But it hasn't been consistent. I need to more consciously practice self-discipline. 

3. My goal is to consistently place SL orders and enforce them. I shall take the short pain to void the long pain and regret. 

Another Storm Just Started 8-26-22

 The major indices were rangebound the first four days of the week. All eyes were on J Powell's speech in Jack Hole. The CPE Index and Personal Income/Spending numbers were slightly better than expected. J Powell's speech on Friday broke all the hell out. He didn't say anything new but had a somewhat hawkish tone. The market started selling off after an initial pop. The majors ended the day down from 3.3%-4.5%. It looks like the beginning of another selloff for the market. The downturn matches the seasonality as well. We are in the dangerous zoon again.  

The IB Netliq is down 1.4K at 126K. I sent 20K back to BOA as planned. The leverage is up about 15% from 335 to 392. The realized P/L is +$4640. The cash collected is a mere $700. I plan to aggressively adjust my positions with the delta measurement considering the expected pullback. I will try to reduce my bullish positions as soon as this Sunday night. I need to correct my habit of being late in the game. I have to record the delta dollars of my positions. 

The 0 DTE performed lower than expected. It was mainly due to my failure to enforce my rules. The system collected $2,460. it booked a loss of $2610 after Friday's rollout in ET.  I fall into another trap with the split from SC to LP in ET. 

Lessons Learned:

1. Be patient. I have improved somewhat with consciousness. I tend to act too early during a volatile market. I often get fooled by wild swings.  

2. Be proactive in adjusting my positions when the market condition changes. 

3. Look at both trees and forests. I started to mark the levels of EMs which helped me to see the bigger pictures.

4. Practice self-discipline in every action.  

 

The 200 SMA Resistances 8-19-22

 The major indices snapped their 4-week bull run. The 200 SMA provided strong resistance. The weekly downtrend channels are still intact for SPX and RUT.  The daily uptrend is slightly broken. It's a healthy pullback expected. A further P/B to the 20 SMA is possible.  

The IB account experienced another devastating week. The Netliq is around 50K, limiting my ability to roll any expiring positions. I was thinking about liquidating the entire account for about 50K. But there wasn't enough cash to do so. I decided to transfer more money to roll these SC positions for a better time to liquidate. It may reduce the damage. I added 90K into IB with 20K on hold until August 22. I will move some money out as soon as the on-hold funds are released on Monday. The Northlake fund needs to be paid back. This is the largest money infusion I ever did. 

The realized P/L is a whopping 61K loss in the IB account for the week. I rolled 3 deep ITM SC after the 17% rally. I also spent over 10K cash to buy up some strikes during the rolls. This situation really stressed me out. I don't have a clear solution on how to unwind it other than follow the market movement. 

The 0 DTE is the only bright spot. The trades in ET made $1830 realized profit. The TOS deep ITM 4125 SC continued to be a drag. I paid $200 to roll the position out without gaining any points. I will never trade 0 DTE without stop-loss again. 

The Bulls Keep Running 8-12-22

 The rally continued into the fourth week. The indices broke out of their weekly downtrend. The better-than-expected CPI and PPI fueled the rally for the last 3 days. RUT crossed its 200 SMA today. SPX is only about 50 points below it. The seasonality has not played out this week. 

I wasn't well prepared for this rally. My IB suffered further. The netliq is down another 11K including the 9K cash for buying back 3 positions. My rolling and hedging ability is restricted by IB. The leverage is at 10.72. The highest level ever recorded. The realized P/L is -5884. The cash is -8900 since I had to buy back 3 positions to void forced liquidation. I may have to continue to close my SPX positions to reduce my leverage. 

The 0 DTE is still working. The TOS ITM short call continued to be a drag. I kept rolling it for over a week now. The original $1800 premiums were not worth the time and effort. The two accounts collected $1950 for this week. It only averaged $390 per day. I tried another 1 DTE IC. It was a scratch. 

I must prepare to unwind most of my SPX and RUT positions in IB. I don't have much room to hedge or roll. It's going to be my most significant loss after the years of undisciplined rolling. On the positive side, I may be free to concentrate on the more productive trading systems. 

 

A Consolidation Week 8-5-22

 The major indices consolidated awaiting the unemployment report and NFP this week. SPX and RUT stayed in the 4100 range and 1900 range respectively. However, both the unemployment report and NFP didn't produce any breakout. The NFP today was a big surprise with the doubled new hire numbers. The majors dropped initially. Then they recovered at the EOD. They still appeared bullish. Could it be a bull trap like last May? 

The IB Netliq is up 3K to 63K. There is nothing to write to home about it. The leverage is slightly down from 933 to 866. It's the result of lower vol. The realized P/L is -5.1K. The collected cash is -4.4K. I had spent 3.6K to close an SP position due to the low B/P with a red warning. I was panicked to do it without exploring other options during a night session. I was able to eliminate one SC position today. But I had to add one more 3760 SP to Dec. I will continue to adjust based on market trends. The number of SPX positions is the highest in my records. I must spend more funds to reduce them. They are lost anyway. 

The 0 DTE collected only $1170 this week. The poor performance was dragged by the rollout from last week. The lost time and opportunity. I start placing stop-loss orders again. 

Lessons Learned:

1. It's easy to do it. It's also easy not to do it, but it will cause regrets and bigger losses not to do it. 

2. Take the loss while it's not too big. 

A Bullish Breakout 7-29-22

 The major indices staged a big rally after the Fed hiked another 0.75% interest rate. The last quarter's GDP booked a 0.9% negative growth. It's the 2nd consecutive negative growth quarter. The market rallied again. SPX gained about 6% for the week. It's retesting the high of last June. RUT rallied less than the others. The majors closed their best month for this year so far. The results basically matched the seasonal trend. The weekly and monthly bear trend has not been broken. August could be a down and choppy month seasonally.  

I acted poorly this week. The IB Netliq is down to 56K. That is the lowest number I ever had. The leverage shoots up to 995. The highest recorded in my book. The weekly P/L is -$34052. The cash collected is $6852. I have too many positions on. The IB account can't handle large swings. 

The 0 DTE was doing well until I failed to enforce the stops on the Fed day. I started to try the 1 DTE IC this week. It ended with 1 win, 1 BE, and 1 loser. I didn't enter the stop-loss orders again. I am really mad at myself now. I keep using other tricks to avoid the stop losses. It ends up costing me more losses in terms of money and time opportunities. I only collected about $3K cash. But booked a 22K losses in rolling the losing positions. 

Lessons learned this week:

1. It's hard to change a bad habit. I have to keep trying to get it right;

2. The key is still the stop loss orders. I did some and failed some;

3. Must reduce the position sizes in the IB account. 

 

A Bear Market Rally? 7-22-22

 The major indices closed this week on a positive note. They all closed above the 50 SMA for the first time since last April. This is a positive improvement. It also agreed with the seasonality. However, The weekly downtrend is still intact. The upper trendlines were touched yesterday before the selloff. The bears could attack at any time. 

My IB suffered a blow during the breakout this week. The Netliq is down to 71K from 87K for the week. The leverage is up from 615 to 757. It's dangerously elevated. The collected cash is $2470. It's mainly from these forced rollouts. The realized P/L is -$20345. This system is draining my time and resources. I have to think of a drastic way to reduce the size of the positions. 

The 0 DTE is still my bread and butter. It collected $4822 cash for the week. That included $2100 from the two 3965LC hedges for the breakout on Wednesday. I failed to place the stop orders on Wednesday and was forced to roll out the SCs in both accounts. I placed stop orders on Friday. I was stopped out twice on the put side. I was chasing the put entry when the SPX was pushing up. I then took another PS entry after the first stop out. It was a revenge trade. It got stopped out again. It cost -$870 in TOS. 

Lessons learned:

1. The stop loss orders are a must-have. 

2. Taking stops didn't feel as bad as I feared. 

3. With the hard stop in place, I must be more selective and patient with my entries. 

4. My indecision in the IB account is costing too much. I have to think hard to find a solution.  

Consolidation In The Down-Trend 7-15-22

 The majors had a week of in-the-range consolidation without any 2.5% moves. They are well off the lows of the week despite the worse-than-expected CPI number. The better-than-expected retail spending boosted the majors today. They closed near the upper trend lines. The seasonal July rally is playing out so far. 

The IB Netliq is up 6.2K at 87.6K. The leverage is down from 653 to 604. It's still very elevated. The realized P/L is -20.6K. It washed out most of the gains from last week. The collected cash is a mere $970. The first 6 months of the year are like paddling in the mud.  

The 0 DTE is working in the range-bound market conditions.  The realized P/L is $2.8K. It's a roughly 2.8% return on the total assets of ETP and TOS. I missed some LP entries in the trending days this week. Trading two personal accounts distract me sometimes. 

The main improvement of the week: I placed stop-loss orders most of the time. I still forget to do it from time to time.  

I will try to trade 1 DTE IC 100 next week if the vol is not going to be too high. The risk is the mid-day reversal. I have to enforce the stop-loss rules to build my confidence. 

A Week Of Recovery 7-8-22

 The major indices closed a positive week. SPX and RUT upped 3% and 5%. They both closed above 20 SMA.  However, they didn't break out the ranges of last week. The down-trend is still intact. 

My IB is up 1K at 81K with the July 4th shortened week. The leverage is slightly lowered at 653. The realized P/L is $22653. The collected cash is $2.1K mainly from an increased risk rollout. I maintained a small negative delta since the down-trend is present. The tide could turn at any time. 

The 0 DTE system is back to normal. I am cautiously trading both ETP and TOS accounts. The collected cash is 2.25K for this week. I started to place stop-loss orders after my orders were filled. I took the first stop-loss in TOS today. It didn't feel too bad. I made it break even after the stop. 

I need to be more consistently adding the stop-loss orders. It's for the 1-5% outliers. 

Watch for the key levels to release my orders. 

A Less Negative Week With A Little Hope 7-1-22

 The major indices booked another down week. However, the ranges were smaller. They retested the breakout areas of last week. These areas held the retest for now. The majors formed small green candles for June after three consecutive monthly red candles. The first six months of 2022 are in the book now. It is the worst performance since 1970 according to Dow Jones. The down-trend is still intact. 

The IB Netliq is up 10K at 77.9K for the week. The leverage came below 70. The realized gain is about 3K with only $600 cash. I was able to reduce some of my SC and SP. It may take a long time to get back to the pre-crash level. I am making progress. 

I made the transition from ET to TOS. The small accounts booked $1670 cash for the week. The poor performance is due to the rolling of these losing positions. This practice caused me time opportunities. I started to enter stop-loss orders right after the order was filled. I have to correct my old habit of no stop-loss orders. I will make a rule of entry for 0 DTE:

1. Study and mark the levels of S/R daily with ATR;

2. Wait 15 minutes after the market opens;

3. Place a stop-loss order right after the order is filled. 

The First Positive Week Of June 6-24-22

 The market staged a rally in this holiday-shortened week. It's the first positive week in June after three negative weeks. SPX and RUT closed above 3900, and 1760 respectively. But they both are still below their 20 SMA. This is still a down-trend rally so far. Let's see how long this summer rally could last. 

My IB Netliq made a new low of 65.5K. It's down 6.2K for the week. It was slightly delta negative. I often seem to be late in the game when the trend changes. My hands are tight by the margin limitation. The leverage set a new high of 854 for 2022. The realized P/L is -$21,281 after the short squeeze. The collected cash is $1150. I will adjust my delta to a more positive stand next week. The 20 SMA could be the next resistance. 

The small accounts performed better. I finally unwinded the deep ITM short puts in ET. It took two weeks and over 60K B/P to save a $300 position. It also costs time and the opportunities to make regular trades.  It's another lesson in No-stop trading. My ET account is limited to 1X day trade now. I will start trading 0 DTE in TOS. It should be a gradual switch. I will use the attached stop-loss orders, plus hedges.  

I knew what is causing my long-term losses. I must overcome the fear of short-term losses.     

Another Losing Week 6-17-22

This week booked another restless selloff. Both SPX and RUT lost over 9% in the week. SPX closed firmly in the bear market territory. RUT closed below its 200 SMA weekly. The sentiment is very bearish. After last Friday's poor CPI report selloff, the majors gapped down on Monday. FOMC reacted to the CPI report with Wednesday's 0.75 point rate hike. The higher-than-expected rate hike triggered another 3.2%-4.7% selloff the next day. 

The IB Netliq ended at 71756, down 35K from last week. It's way below the 100K minimum line. It lasted for the entire week. This only happened during the pandemic crash in 2020. My current system is not working. It carries too high of leverage. The realized P/L is -25.6K, compared with last week's +15K. The leverage is up to 8.05 v.s. 4.8 of last week. The collected cash is $7900, thanks to the two put hedges ITM. 

My personal accounts suffered from the selloff. My No-Stop practice is the main cause of it. I kept rolling the ITM SPs for the whole week. It takes up more than half of my buying power. There has not been any improvement in the positions. In the book, I lost $48K, which is most of my profit for the year so far. Unless exit my current ITM positions. I also lost the time opportunities to make profits.    

One lesson and conclusion:

Take Stops!!! 

The End Of The Bear Rally 6-10-22

 The majors reversed the bear market rally after several attempts to break up early this week. It was a big reversal day on Thursday in anticipation of the CPI report on Friday. The CPI report came out at 8.6% year over year. It's at 40 years record. The futures gaped down over 1% on the worse-than-expected report. SPX and RUT closed at 3900, and 1800 respectively. It was a very volatile selloff. SPX fell 5.6% in two days. 

My portfolios took a big hit for the week. IB Netliq fell 30K from 127 to 97K. I had to borrow another 10K from ETQ on Friday in order to roll some positions. The leverage jumped from 376 to 481. I lost $5000 cash on Thursday's assignment. It was mainly caused by my poor risk management during the EOD selloff. The realized P/L is $14,915 on paper. There were some SCs unwinded. Some of the LCs are underwater now. This system is not working in the current market conditions. There is always one side underwater. 

My small accounts took a hit too. ETP had an SP 3X4030 assignment on Thursday's PM selloff.  I neglected to hedge the 2nd leg of 4040 SP. It caused $1,000. I had to roll the threatened SP to the next day. They were rolled to Monday again. The booked loss is $10,635 for the week. 

Lessons learned: 

1. Be quick to change directional bias as the price action changes;

2. Be aggressive to adjust my positions once the market changes directions;

3. Be proactive in hedging short positions. Don't worry about the cost too much;

4. The cost of hedging is smaller than the stop losses most of the time.    

A Week Of Consolidation 6-3-22

 The Memory Day shortened week ended with wild swings in ranges. The majors gave back about 1% gains from last week's huge rally. The majors held their daily 20 SMA but below their weeklies. They are basically consolidated in the downtrend.  

The IB Netliq closed at 122K plus the 5K from ETQ. It's up 12K for the week, thanks to the consolidation. The realized P/L is 5K. The leverage is down to 376 from 457. There was only $500 cash collected. I have a $1.4K assignment due to a mistake in a rolling order quantity. Although I recovered it with extra profit yesterday. It was still a mistake on my part. 

The personal accounts experienced set back as well. The total cash collected is only $1715. I made a big mistake during the wild swings on Thursday. I was overconfident that it was going to be a down day since it opened lower. It turned out to be a huge reversal. SPX started -1% to +2%. I was emotionally stressed. I even forgot to place the hedge orders like I normally do. I started to roll the threatened short calls during the last 30 minutes at EOD. I didn't have enough time to roll the 3 4170SC in my Fidelity account. It ended up ITM. It was a $1.9K(3x$630) loss. The total loss is over $3K including the 2 assigned in IB. 

The lessons learned:

I was too emotionally stressed during the big market swings. I didn't even realize my emotions. I was overconfident on the levels without having a contingent plan, including stop-loss orders. 

I need to focus on the process of trading my system. I should start the day earlier and get ready to trade before the market opens.   

A Big Relief Rally and Mishandling 5-28-22

 The majors booked 6+ % rallies last week and erased the 7-8 week consecutive losses. The rally gained steam after the FOMC Minute release. The indices closed above their 20 SMAs two days in a row. So far it looks like the March relief rally. This rally may establish new trading ranges. VIX hasn't given up too much territory with the rally. Bears may have room to attack again. I totally mismanaged this rally with very poor risk management. 

The IB Netliq dropped from 105K to 92K. It's below the minimum level again. I added 5K cash from ETQ over the weekend. It doesn't look enough so far. The leverage is up to 545. The realized P/L is -20K due to the added short SPX. The cash collected is $9.2K. I was greedy in collecting the premiums using butterflies instead of the simple debit spreads. 

The small accounts also took some heat. I kept selling bear calls against the rally. Most of them ended profitably. One of the butterfly call hedges in ET got into trouble with the last two days of the 2% rally. I had to roll them out. The collected cash is $2049. ETP booked a $7.35K loss due to the rolling. 

Overall, it was a depastures week in terms of risk management despite the $11K premiums collected. The biggest mistake was these added short calls from butterfly hedges. 

I must obey the -1+1 rule. Risk control is the key before anything else. I will have to give back the collected cash to reduce my leverage.   

 

The 7th Down Week 5-20-22

 The majors booked their 7th consecutive down week. It only happened during the dot-com crash in 2001. The bubble of the last 10-plus years burst again. The selloff has been strong. The MACD and RSI weekly charts are in the oversold territory now. We may see a technical bounce next week after today's wild swings. 

The IB Netliq ended unchanged from the 105K last week. The leverage is up slightly from 468 to 473. The realized P/L is $8.9K. It was mainly from the risk reversals of deleveraging. The account collected $1935 due to there being a couple of hedges worked out. I am thankful that I survived the wild market this week. I was aggressively deleveraging my positions to keep the delta neutral. 

The 0 DTE system continues to be the bread and butter of my trading. It brought in $3780 profit with a good hedge win of $1300.  It withstood these 3-4% wild swings with my hedging strategies. 

Lessons learned:

1. Respect the trend. We are in a bear market;

2. I must deleverage my positions. Take advantage to do so if there is a bounce;

3. Realize that my old system is not working. I must exit all the positions in an orderly manner. 

The 6th Down Week In A Row 5-13-22

 The majors booked their sixth down week, except RUT had a small green week amount these weeks. There was a broad-based relief rally today that reduced some of the losses and corrected some over-sold conditions. The length of the downward movement exceeded the pandemic selloff but not in the same magnitude. NQ and RUT have fallen over 20% and are officially in the bear market. SPX barely avoided the bear market after today's rally. Is the market due for a little rest and consolidation?

The IB Netliq suffered a 6K drawdown. It went below 100K for 2 days. IB realized $17.8K P/L. The collected premiums are $4.3K for the week because some hedges are paid off. The leverage is still elevated at 468. Should I aggressively close these underwater positions so I can focus on the 0 DTE strategy which actually produces consistent profits?

The 0 DTE in my small accounts continues to generate cash. The total profit is $4.86K. The premiums are higher with the high volatility. The hedging strategy has been working so far. 

The lessons learned this week:

1. Be aggressive and consistent with the trend. I didn't reverse enough BP to BC based on the expected moves. 

2. Pay attention to the accuracy of my orders. I made two mistakes in selecting the strikes this week.   

The 5th Down Week 5-6-22

 The selloff continues for this week. The majors booked the 5th consecutive losing week. Only RUT had one small positive week amount the 5 weeks. All of them closed at the new low of the year. The price actions are quite bearish. SPX has lost 13% year to date. NQ and RUT are sliding into -20% bear market territory. The last time the five consecutive losing weeks occurred was the pandemic crash of 2020. The market may be due for a counter-trend rally soon. 

My IB Netliq ended at 111.7K, down 4.6K. It's in the danger zone again. The realized P/L is $8K. The collected cash is $5.8K, thanks to the 7K hedge profit from FOMC day. The leverage is up to 437 from last week's 423 since VIX is above 30 again. I suffered from another mistake of breaking the rule of -1+1 this week. After the surge of FOMC, I reversed 2 SC to SP partially on that night. I was only supposed to add 1 SP based on my rules. This mistake cost me more than 10K. I am still rolling the positions. A big lesson to remember. 

The 0 DTE continues to generate positive returns even in this volatile market. The net profit is $6.3K for the week. There was a $900 profit from a hedge on FOMC day. 

Lessons of the week:

1. Recognized and control my emotions. Sometimes I recognized the emotions, especially the fear during the wild market swings. I didn't make enough effort to control my emotions. 

2. Why don't I transition the IB account to 0 DTE since the 0 DTE has consistently been profitable. There is no point to continue struggling with the rolling and reversing these DITM positions anymore. It has been more than 5 years that I still couldn't unwind these positions. The old system is not working. 

Another Volatile Week 4-29-22

 The majors suffered another volatile week and closed at the lowest point for the week. So much for the seasonally best April. SPX, NQ, and RUT all closed below February's lows. SPX and NQ booked their fourth consecutive negative week. RUT had one week of a small gain within the last four weeks. The three now are closed at their lows of the year. The pictures are bearish. We could see a bounce before or after FOMC next Wednesday. 

My IB Netliq slide to 116K including the 10K I transferred in today. It's another 24K drawdown from last week. The account was hit with a 22K margin call on Wednesday. I mistakenly thought the red letters were false until an SPX LP was called away. It was the 2nd time this year. I can't even find a good excuse for it. The account booked a $12,185 profit on paper for the week. The total P/L is $11K for April. The cash collected was negative because of the margin call. It was such a bad experience and feeling.

For April, IB's realized P/L is $11,705. The collected cash is -$16,233 due to the $22K margin call. 

The 0 DTE hit a couple of full debit hedging targets. The 2 small accounts collected over $4K for the week. The ET account was lucky enough to clear these rolled-down positions early in the week. I had to roll out another batch of puts today in order to let the 4140P be profitable. These 4130Ps were lucky to be OTM at the last minute today. The 3.6% selloff was brutal today. 

I made $10,640 in the two small accounts in April. Some hedges worked out during the volatile time.

The lessons learned this week:

1. Be quick and nimble to adjust my positions based on the market direction and the delta.

2. Don't hesitate to spend money to hedge my accounts. Overall, I have made profits with the hedges. 

The Sell Off Accelerated 4-23-22

 The selloff intensified after the majors tried to break to the upside earlier this week. The 20, 200 DSMA acted as resistants for SPX after it fall below last week. RUT is still far below its 200 DSMA. The 20 DSMA is resistant now. The three majors closed their third week of losses. The small caps had a small gain last week but also formed a bearish engulfing weekly bar like the others for the week. The charts are bearish for now. The downside targets are to retest the March lows at least. We could see a lower low if the retest failed. 

My IB holdings suffered a big drawdown this week. The netliq ended at 123K, down from 165K of last week. It's a 40K drawdown for the week. The weekly realized P/L is -32K. The premiums collected are a mere $900 since I had to spend more on hedges and buy $400 long puts to boost the margin during the 2.7% selloff on Friday. 

The 0 DTE suffered some losses with a smaller profit. It collected $900 for the week. I had to roll some short puts to next Monday due to the big selloff on Friday. The buy put hedge worked which eliminated some losses. 

The lessons of the week:

1. Don't forget to look at the forest. The bearish setup was clear looking back now. The majors below the 20 DSMA were clear signs of bearishness. I was fooled by the overnight and opening moves in the shorter time frames. The correct approach is to analyze it from the top-down. 

2. Obey my rules. I broke the -1+1 rule again last Thursday when there was a gap up. I tried to rescue an underwater SPX SC that is about 100 points ITM. Instead of waiting to see the true intention of the market, I made a big reversal order to add about 50 points to the long side. The market reversed when J Powell spoke about the rate hike the market broke down. I ended up holding the bag without an exit plan. My bias was wrong. I then added another LP assuming the market would hold. I broke the -1+1 rule here. Stick to the rules!!!

3. Be patient when the VIX is high or there is a big event during the day that could affect the market. I said that I wouldn't place any order before J Powell speaks last Thursday. I totally forget about it when the market gapped up and pushed higher after the opening. 

A 50% Pull Back So Far 4-14-22

 The majors closed the 2nd down week in April. They have pulled 50% back from the 500 points mid-March rally. The EOD selloff indicated there may be more downside moves ahead. Both SPX and RUT are below their 20 SMA on daily and weekly. These are not bullish signs. SPX may come down to the 4330 area with the 62% FIB retest. RUT already hit the 78.6% retracement and closed at the 62% Fib area. The seasonally best performing month of April hasn't played out so far. 

The IB Netliq is up 9K to 165K for this Easter shorted week. The leverage is also lowered from 272 to 252. The realized P/L is -5.8K due to the RUT 2250P rollout and a failed 1 DTE IF. The collected cash is only $650. There was no major payoff in hedges for the week. I am still too cautious in trading the 0 DTE in this account.  

The small accounts continue to be my bread and butter for my cash flows. The realized P/L is $54K with the 3K from the recovery of the IF rollings. The actual cash collected is about $2.46K. There were two small hedge payoffs for about $500. 

I made a big poo-poo in date selections due to the holiday-shortened expiration change. 

I plan to use this long weekend to study the complex order types after finishing my tax returns.  

The Bulls Are Tired 4-8-22

 The majors closed lower for this week. SPX is down a little more than 1% and  RUT closed below 2000 again. QQQ is leading to the downside. The selloff was induced by Fed members' hawkish talks. Naturally, the market needed a breather after the recent rally. I expect the selling pressure to continue early next week as MACD and Friday's closing indicated. 

The IB Netliq is down 11K including 2K to BAC for expenses. The realized P/L is $23.5K, mainly from the exited positions. The collected cash is $1,550 resulting from a couple of hedges that worked. The leverage is at 253 from last week's 241. My options portfolio is still venerable to the downside. 

The 0 DTE in my small accounts only realized $1160 profit. I entered an IF 1 DTE on Tuesday which didn't work out. The put leg is still in the book after 2 rolls. 

Improvements of the week:

1. I have been more patient in waiting for the market to come to me. I paid more attention to the levels.

2. I recognized and controlled my emotions more consciously. I was willing to let an order go instead of chasing it. 

Issues to address next week:

1. I need to set a clear rule for my stop losses even if there is a hedge protecting protect part of my positions already. 

2. Continue to build the habit of entering stop-loss orders after a new position is established. This is still my weakest link. 

The Review of The Week & Month 4-1-22

 The majors continued the rally but stalled at the end. SPX and RUT closed slightly up in almost Doji-like bars. They have moved to the upper side of the Feb-March ranges. We may see some attempts to retest the January breakdown areas and rangebound for a while. Notice that the majors are below or at their 20 wk MAs, broken their weekly downtrends. 

For the last week of March (excluding April 1) the IB Netliq is down 4K with 10K sent back to ET. The realized P/L is -29K due to the rolling of the SPX 3375 SC. The pullback on Wednesday and Thursday didn't help either. The leverage is at 2.55. The premiums collected are $3.7K thanks to some of the directional hedges that went into the money. 

The personal accounts performed fairly. There was one big loss (-800) in TOS PS during the last 30 min selloff on Thursday. The total P/L is $1,010 for the week, about $1K less than last week.  

March is in the rearview now. The results of the month are:

IB Netliq is 170K up from 108K of Feb. The cash collected is $15K, recovered partial loss of the $25K in Feb. The realized P/L is $41K compared with the $18K of Feb. The leverage is down to 255 from 440.  These good results are mainly the recoveries from the Jan-Feb drawdowns. The portfolio is still very much market-dependent. 

The 0 DTE in my small accounts is still my income generator. The realized P/L is $7.6K, about 1K up from Feb. Feb was a more volatile and shorter month.  

Placing stop-loss orders is still my major weakness. Once I have hedges on I relaxed my rule of stop losses. Also, remember that the unlikely sudden moves in the market are the main risk factor. 

The Rally Continues 3-25-22

 The majors closed another week for green except for RUT with a little Doji on weekly. However, all of them are still under 20 SMA weekly and near the top of their range. There could be resistances above and result in different levels of pullbacks. Overall, the bulls are in control so far. 

The IB Netliq ended at 178K, up 15.8K for this week. The realized P/L is $19.22K with 3K cash collected. The cash is mostly coming from the debit hedges. It may be worked less than half of the time. The leverage is down to 232 from 284. I made 80 trades in IB this week alone. It's kind of overtrade. I feel a big relief with the continued rally. But my portfolio is too heavily reliant on the market directions. I have a lot more deleverage ahead. 

The 0 DTE continues to work in my personal accounts. I am more proactive in hedging my positions when the market is volatile. The realized P/L in both ET and TOS is $1.98K. It averaged $660 per trading day.   The premiums are rich when VX is around the mid-20s.  

Lessons learned this week:

1. Actively hedging my positions when the market is volatile;

2. Paid more attention to levels, but not consistently yet; 

3. Being more patient and willing to wait a little longer;

The tasks for next week:

1. Place stop orders for every position entered, make it a habit;

2. Identify the daily trends early in the day. May add short-term moving averages. 

Is The Down Trend Ended After The Fed Rate Hike? 3-18-22

 Another volatile week just ended. This time it was a big reversal up week. The majors started to position the day before FOMC's rate hike. The seasonality trend is also indicated a mid-March reversal. SPX and RUT rallied 6% and more this week. The market sentiment has improved a lot. However, the majors are still in their weekly balance range. The downtrend is not broken in weekly yet. VIX is 23.87 at the low of its uptrend and right above the 20 SMA. Bears may still have a chance to attack. 

The IB Netliq ended at $162,336, up 17K from last week's $145392. The leverage is 284, down from 341. The realized P/L is $9,879. The collected premium is $2,824. The cash was mainly from buying hedges. It recovered from the $2.8K loss of the big surge after FOMC on Wednesday.  

The personal account at ET performed well. It also benefited from debit IC which works when the vol is high. The realized P/L is $1,614 for the week. I still haven't traded the TOS account.  

Overall, it was a good week since the market turned around. There are a couple of lessons learned. 

1. I wasn't prepared for such a big bounce like every other time. I need to be more objective base my assumptions on key levels and price actions. 

2. I still don't have a habit of placing stop orders right after my order is executed. I need to study IB's order types this weekend. 

3. Stay calm to optimize my hedges. Like this Wednesday, I didn't promptly roll or close 2 short calls in the last 15 min. I lost $2800 when the last min rally came. Today, I made an assumption to let the 25x call spread stay. I could have moved it up for $500 more on every higher strike. 

My plan for next week:

1. Delevrage my short calls while preparing for a possible pullback. 

2. Place a stop order immediately for every order that is executed.  

3. Study and identify daily trends and place alerts on the key levels of the day. 

The Down Trend Continues 3-11-22

The majors booked another losing week on the Russia-Ukraine war and rising inflation concerns. SPX and RUT gave back their previous week's gains and continue to slide inside their down-channels. Interestingly VIX had a down week too but still closed above 30. There is no relief in sight yet. 

The IB Netliq ended at 145K, up 8K from last week. The leverage is slightly down from 363 to 341. The realized P/L is $9,322. It's mainly through reverse rollings. There is no exit of base positions. The collected premium is $6,446, thanks to some of the hedges paid off. The debt spread hedging seems to work more than half of the time in this volatile market. 

The 0 DTE strategy in my ET account earned $2,982. The volatility actually produces higher premiums. But trading it is not easy though. I haven't traded the TOS account for the last 2 weeks. I need to practice it more with it. 

The good results of this week were mainly from the relatively stable high VIX. I was able to identify the down-trend and trade with the trend. My emotions are reasonably calm. 

My plan for next week:

1. Stay with the trend and don't take any drastic action;

2. Prepare for the FOMC before Wednesday. I won't trade 0 DTE during the FOMC day. 

3. Mark and set alerts for the major levels and plan my trade around these levels.  

Another Volatile Week Waiting For The Range Break 3-5-22

 It was another volatile week but the majors traded in ranges. The Ukrainian crisis is worsening as Russian troops advance which pressured the market sentiment. The majors failed to breakout to the upside after the reversal from last week. They all formed a wedge pattern awaiting a breakout one way or another. 

The IB Netliq is up 39K from last week. It's the result of the rangebound week. The leverage is back from 548 to 363 which provided some relief. The realized P/L is $31,800. But the collected cash is - 1,900 since most of my hedges didn't work out, also the results of the rangebound market. A positive outcome is that I reduced 4 of the SPX SC and 2 of the RUT SC. I will have less risk if the market pops, or more room to reverse the SP if the market goes down next week. 

The 0 DTE system in the small accounts is my bread and butter now. It collected $830 premiums after ST's SPY BF C went worthless. I didn't take stop loss quickly on Thursday's reversal. 

Lessons for the week:

1. Be patient and watch for the levels. 

2. Pay attention to my emotional changes. 

Plan for next week:

1. Keep in mind that the majors are still in the downtrend and VIX is still above 30. The war in Ukraine is not likely to get better any time soon. Adding hedges with the trend. 

2. Continue to deleverage my SP positions. The RR 4430 from SC to SP was a bit of an emotional trade. 

3. Trade 0 DTE with the directional of the day when B/P allows in IB. 

 

A Big Turnaround Week 2-25-22

 This week is a volatile week with big swings in both directions. The tension between Russia and Ukraine finally became a full-scale war. Putin lied when he said he had no plan to invade Ukraine. On Wednesday SPX closed at the Jan 24's low. It was a really bearish posture. Then the Russian invasion started late that night. The futures market tanked. ES reached the one-year weekly range low of 4100 area. I was deleveraging my LPs to SCs. The majors started to recover the next morning. It was a big reversal day. SPX turned around from -2% to +1.5%, a total of 186 points, 3.5% round trip. I got slapped in both directions. 

IB Netliq is down 45K from 143K to 97K.  The leverage is up to 548, the highest level since the Covid plug of 2021. The realized P/L is -$17654. But IB made a margin close of $36,160 during the big drop on Wednesday. So my cash is down $32,206 for the week after the $5K ITM collection. It was a total disaster week for me in which I made all the mistakes and broke my rules. I was over-exposed in both directions. 

The 0 DTE in my personal account continues to perform well with some scary moments during the volatile week. It collected $1,532 for the week. I had to buy some hedges due to the large daily swings, but they mostly worked out.  

The lessons learned this week:

1. The same problem of no stopping enforced;

2. Oversized positions when I try to reduce one side but added two on the opposite side;

3. Lack of recognizing and control of my emotions, especially during volatile times. 

Yes, The Second Shoe Is Dropping 2-18-22

 The majors booked another down week with the Russia-Ukrian tension and a hawkish Fed. They all are back into their downtrend and below their 200D MA. It looks like they may retest their breakout area in January. It's hard to tell if Russia invades Ukraine. Things may fall out of bed. So far the price movement is still following the seasonal pattern. 

The IB Netliq is slightly down (-1.2K). The leverage is still at 330ish. The realized P/L is $21K with a $17K gain of rolling the RUT SC back in January.  The collected cash is -$415. I spent over $1K in hedges and boosted short-term margins. It's the part of the $72K I collected from last week's hedges that increased three of my SPX SP positions. I plan to spend part or all of the premiums to reduce the account's margin. I am doing fine so far. 

The small accounts produced $947 cash with the 0 DTE system. It's $1000 less than last week since I reduced the sizes and missed a PUT SP due to the high volatility. 

I started to place stop orders this week. Although none of them were triggered, it's a good start. I found that using debit spreads as a hedge combined with stop orders works in this volatile environment. 

Next week's tasks:

1. Set stops in every new position; 

2. Deleveraging and reducing risks as much as I can;

3. Reverse positions according to the trend and delta;

4. Trade with the trend. 

Is the 2nd Shoe Dropping? 2-11-22

 The majors reversed the rally mood in the last two days of this week. The risk factors are: the January inflation number is higher than expected; Fed speakers are more hawkish on interest rate hiking; The increasing Russia and Ukraine tension. Seasonally, there is likely another leg down in mid of Feb before the market turns up. The key is how to survive this downturn? It could get worse with these risk factors above. 

The IB Netliq is at $145712, down 10K from last week excluding the 10K borrowed from ET today. The available funds are much less since I mishandled the long positions. I have 3 more long positions in SPX due to the sudden drops in the last two days. The leverage is back above 3.33. The realized P/L is -$690. I had many small wins and the long put spread hedges helped. But these 3 short puts in SPX drained a lot of my B/P. These long hedges helped to collect $9250 cash. 

The personal accounts performed fairly. They collected $1570 for the week. I shouldn't have traded in my TOS account as I plan. I am not familiar with its order entry system. I lost $300 in it today since it won't allow rolling options in the last 15 min of the trading days. I need to be more cautious when the VIX is high. 

My biggest problem is still the stop orders. I must get into the habit of placing stop orders right after I entered a position. I can easily recover a 2x or 3x loss. It's much better than rolling with 4 plus times losses which drains a lot of my B/P. I took a couple stops last week which didn't feel too bad. 

Lessons learned this week:

1. Stay disciplined. I broke my rules by adding more positions and not placing stop-loss orders. 

2. Be quick to change my bias when the market condition changes. Plan to take action with the new market condition. Don't be like a deer standing in front of headlights. 

Next week could be another rough week as the price action and seasonality indicate. My plans are: 

1. deleveraging; 

2. take stops; 

3. trade with the trend; 

4. reverse positions when needed.  

Volatility With Earnings Swings 2-5-22

 The majors continued volatile swings with some buying activities. VIX is hovering around 24. The big tech earnings affected the mood of the market. FB lost 26% in one day while AMZN gained 14% after the ER. The futures swung 1% up and down overnight and back to normal in the RHS.  All four majors closed in the green for the week after 3-4 weeks in the red. It's a sign of improvement. However, they are still in the downtrend in daily and weekly charts.  They could be building a new balance area. My view is that the market is exploring a new acceptable value area with the inflation and rate hiking economical reality. 

My IB Netliq closed at $155K up from last week's $139K. The leverage is down to 328 v.s. 372 of last week. The realized P/L is $21K, which only recovered 1/4 of January's loss. There is a lot more work to do for a full recovery. The IB ended with -$1.5K cash due to the 80 shares of TZA. There will be a $2K cash from the SPX long put spreads ITM settled over the weekend. The 0 DTE in my small accounts continued to perform well. It realized a $1.3K profit for the week excluding the $350 from Monday, Jan 31. 

Looking at the current charts and the seasonal pattern, the market is not out of the woods yet. We may have one more volatile week ahead at least. I was able to reduce one SPX short put from Jan and moved one RUT short put to the end of Feb. Many of my short calls expired on Friday. I took two stop losses for the week. One was a 1 DTE IF and the other one was an SPX put. I am glad I did regardless of the end result. I entered a further out PS to recover part of the stop loss. 

I am thinking to trade the 0 DTE in IB account when the PB is allowed since the strategy is working for the other accounts. I will study it further to refine the setups. I just have to follow my hedging and stop-loss rules. 

Another Volatile Week To End January 1-28-22

 The volatility continued for this week to end January. SPX and RUT ranged over 120, and 60 points daily respectively. SPX touched a 10% decline and bounced so far. It held its 50 week MA and closed above it. RUT hit the 20% bear mark and bounced a little. It's hanging in the mid of the big valley of VP on weekly. It held FB 50% pullback after 4 consecutive losing weeks. The sentiment is negative for sure. Last Friday's relief rally of 2.4 -1.9% was in line with the seasonality. We are not out of the wood yet if the seasonal pattern continues to play out. 

The IB Netliq closed at 120.9K,  +3K. It actually is down 2K excluding the 5K from ET. The leverage is 4.4 from last week's 4.7. The realized P/L is -$26.45K. The cash collection is -$4.9K due to my stop loss in RUT puts of $8K during the highs of the selloff. It was another blood bath week for me. 

The personal accounts had a nice recovery. The P/L is + $7064, mainly from the recovery of last week's roll and split. The actual cash collection is about $530 since I only traded the 0 DTE last Friday. The rest of the P/L was from closing out last week's positions. Overall, the 0 DTE has been working as long as I avoid trading it when the VIX is above 28. 

I have paid a hefty price from my poor risk management. It will take 3-6 months to make the IB account back to a healthy level. I must enforce my stop-loss rules otherwise I won't be able to become a consistent, successful trader. 

How did I do with my plan for last week? 

1. Take Stops. I did two in RUT put hedges, but not in all of my trades. 

2. Deleveraging. Sold some bear calls to reduce 5-10 points of my bull puts. Not sufficient and aggressive enough.

3. Reversing long positions. Didn't do it due to a lack of deep looking and thinking. 

4. Trading with the downtrend. I entered some hedging put spreads in both SPX and RUT with some success. 

My plan for next week is:

1. Reduce 1-2 bull put positions to reduce my risk exposures. We may have a short period of consolidation which will provide me the opportunity to deleverage. Don't screw up this time! 

2. Put stops in every new order I place. 

3. Reverse or split my bull positions to make my delta flat. 

4. Hedge my positions with spreads and leveraged ETFs. 

Haven't I Learned Anything About Risk Management?

 It was a volatile, intensified selling week. The four majors booked 4 consecutive losing days after MLK Monday. All of them closed below their 200 SMA. QQQ and RUT  performed the worst, down 20% and 14% respectively. SPX is down 9% so far with the last Oct's breakout gap between 4386 to 4367. It's less than 1% below its current price of 4398 and likely to get filled soon. RUT broke the year-long range and closed below the 2000 mark. 

My IB account took a big hit for the week. The IB Netliq went down to 119K from last week's 137.6K. It would have been only 61K left if I didn't transfer 50K from ET to shore up the margins. The balance is at risk of margin call again. The leverage is up to 4.7, the highest since last May. I increased one SPX long put and didn't take the stop loss as planned. The realized P/L is -$48K, the largest weekly loss since last May as well.  It's likely that I will have to book more losses since there are more ITM long calls in the near term. 

The personal accounts booked a loss of -$138. It was my mistake again. I entered a 1 DTE instead of waiting for the end-of-day selling to settle. The pattern of last week has been hard-selling to make new lows at the EOD. I had to roll the threatened 4430LP to 4360 next Monday. I plan to buy long puts to defend the positions. I can use the $1500 (3x$500) long PS I earned from Friday's hedging. 

The cause of the losses is my old bad habit of poor risk management. I haven't improved much in avoiding psychological pain and taking losses. The mindset of thinking of the drawdown tolerance instead of risk management hasn't changed. Taking a 5K loss is better than rolling a 10K loss. I was simply kicking the can down the road and increasing my margin leverages. The same mistake happened over and over. I was holding and hoping for a bounce which hasn't happened. Hope is not a trading strategy. I didn't think and plan for if something happened against my hope. 

My plan for next week is to actively change my old bad habit.

1. Take stops,

2. Trading with the trends instead of passively defending my positions. 

3. Deleverag my holdings. 

4. Reversing part of my long puts to short calls if and when possible. 

A Volatile Week 1-14-22

 It's another volatile week following the sharp downturn of last week. SPX closed slightly positive after testing the 20 wk SMA. But it parked below last week's open. RUT closed in the negative territory for the 2nd week. It's in the lower portion of the year-long range and below all of the daily and weekly major MAs. The tech-heavy Qs are also below its 20, 50 daily, and 20 weekly MAs. Overall, the market is under pressure on Fed's rate increase expectations. 

The IB Netliq is up 5K, about 3% for the week. The leverage is down 10 points at 252. But the realized P/L is down 8K due to the sudden reversal and caught me off guard. I had to roll all of my bull puts out to survive for the week. I collected $1500 cash for the week but most of it was from the sale of the TZA hedge. There are two SPX put hedges that are fully ITM today for $1500 minus the cost of $330. 

The ET  acct realized $1700 p/l for this week. It wasn't easy. I had to make adjustments and hedges almost every day during this volatile week. Luckily I came out ahead though the impatience caused me some headache. 

I made two stock directional trades in TSLA and AMD but none of them worked out. They cost me about $-300. My trade selection and management need a lot more work. 

I had a slightly bearish bias but was fooled by the head fake rally at the beginning of the week. Then, I let my guard down and started to chase the rally. I need to be more cautious and keep the big pictures in mind next week. The volatile condition may not be over with the earnings season starting and the monthly options expiration next week. I am still working on my stop loss pain killer. I placed the orders in IFs but didn't execute them. My rolled orders are not implemented yet. I will start to place stop orders for my rolling positions next week. Otherwise, I couldn't place stop orders when the market suddenly changes.  

The First Week Of The Year 1-7-22

The majors closed down for the first week of the year due to the FED turning into a hawkish tone. That appears to be a warning sign. Santa rally was faded like getting infected with Omicron. SPX and RUT closed down 2.2%, 4% respectively. NQ performed the worst by shedding 5.7%. Growth is being replaced by value and defensive stocks. This change of the scheme may continue for a while.  

My IB Netliq ended at 162.6K from 179.4K, -9.4%. That's a shocking drawdown. I still have the old habit of rolling instead of stopping. The realized P/L is -$9250. The leverage is up to 256 from 234. The account collected a $2,088 premium including the scale-out of 50 TZA. My small accounts performed better for the week. ETP booked $1,130 cash profit in 0 DTE trading. My directional options trading ended with a mixed result. I didn't stop losses soon enough and closed profitable positions too soon. The overall for this week was -$230. 

I was a bit overconfident that the majors would rally a little more until FOMC minutes release on Wednesday. My trading plan calls for a quick change bias as the market changes. Taking stops on the rolled positions hasn't been implemented. I will take action to confront my fear of psychological pain. 

I will edit my trading plan for 2022 over the weekend. Avoiding big drawdowns should be planed in more detail. 

Is The Santa Rally Over? 1-1-22

 It's the End of the Week, Month, and Year. I will write a separate summary for 2021. The Santa rally started right after Christmas for SPX and Dow which made new ATHs within a couple of days. NQ is knocked down on a double top pattern of daily and weekly.  RUT is the weakest one which is stuck in its 10-month range between the 20/50 D SMA. After the initial breakout, the majors didn't make follow-through advancing. They traded in sideways for the rest of the week with the selloff in the last 30 min of the last two days. It's not clear what the market's intention is right now. The time of the year is tricky for either direction. 

For the last week of 2021, IB's net liq closed  177K excluding the 20K paid back to ET Q. Therefore it's up about 8K from last week. The leverage is at 230, similar to last week. The collected premium is $849 with the realized P/L of $60,710. The P/L is somewhat distorted due to the rollings of LPs earlier this month. For the month of December, the IB had a netliq increase of 30K and a premium collection of 5.6K. For the personal accounts, I only traded my ET which closed with 1K P/L and the monthly of $4130. I may start to trade TOS when the vol is stable. There are just too many accounts to manage for 0 DTE with the vol jumping around. My plan was to use TOS for swing and ETF trading. 

The 1 DTE IF and 0 DTE SPX worked this week. I did put stop losses for my IFs but luckily didn't have to use them. I still have the psychological fear of taking stop-loss which will hurt me when the vol is high. I will do a 1-2X stop loss for my swing and rolling positions.