A Bullish Breakout 7-29-22

 The major indices staged a big rally after the Fed hiked another 0.75% interest rate. The last quarter's GDP booked a 0.9% negative growth. It's the 2nd consecutive negative growth quarter. The market rallied again. SPX gained about 6% for the week. It's retesting the high of last June. RUT rallied less than the others. The majors closed their best month for this year so far. The results basically matched the seasonal trend. The weekly and monthly bear trend has not been broken. August could be a down and choppy month seasonally.  

I acted poorly this week. The IB Netliq is down to 56K. That is the lowest number I ever had. The leverage shoots up to 995. The highest recorded in my book. The weekly P/L is -$34052. The cash collected is $6852. I have too many positions on. The IB account can't handle large swings. 

The 0 DTE was doing well until I failed to enforce the stops on the Fed day. I started to try the 1 DTE IC this week. It ended with 1 win, 1 BE, and 1 loser. I didn't enter the stop-loss orders again. I am really mad at myself now. I keep using other tricks to avoid the stop losses. It ends up costing me more losses in terms of money and time opportunities. I only collected about $3K cash. But booked a 22K losses in rolling the losing positions. 

Lessons learned this week:

1. It's hard to change a bad habit. I have to keep trying to get it right;

2. The key is still the stop loss orders. I did some and failed some;

3. Must reduce the position sizes in the IB account. 

 

A Bear Market Rally? 7-22-22

 The major indices closed this week on a positive note. They all closed above the 50 SMA for the first time since last April. This is a positive improvement. It also agreed with the seasonality. However, The weekly downtrend is still intact. The upper trendlines were touched yesterday before the selloff. The bears could attack at any time. 

My IB suffered a blow during the breakout this week. The Netliq is down to 71K from 87K for the week. The leverage is up from 615 to 757. It's dangerously elevated. The collected cash is $2470. It's mainly from these forced rollouts. The realized P/L is -$20345. This system is draining my time and resources. I have to think of a drastic way to reduce the size of the positions. 

The 0 DTE is still my bread and butter. It collected $4822 cash for the week. That included $2100 from the two 3965LC hedges for the breakout on Wednesday. I failed to place the stop orders on Wednesday and was forced to roll out the SCs in both accounts. I placed stop orders on Friday. I was stopped out twice on the put side. I was chasing the put entry when the SPX was pushing up. I then took another PS entry after the first stop out. It was a revenge trade. It got stopped out again. It cost -$870 in TOS. 

Lessons learned:

1. The stop loss orders are a must-have. 

2. Taking stops didn't feel as bad as I feared. 

3. With the hard stop in place, I must be more selective and patient with my entries. 

4. My indecision in the IB account is costing too much. I have to think hard to find a solution.  

Consolidation In The Down-Trend 7-15-22

 The majors had a week of in-the-range consolidation without any 2.5% moves. They are well off the lows of the week despite the worse-than-expected CPI number. The better-than-expected retail spending boosted the majors today. They closed near the upper trend lines. The seasonal July rally is playing out so far. 

The IB Netliq is up 6.2K at 87.6K. The leverage is down from 653 to 604. It's still very elevated. The realized P/L is -20.6K. It washed out most of the gains from last week. The collected cash is a mere $970. The first 6 months of the year are like paddling in the mud.  

The 0 DTE is working in the range-bound market conditions.  The realized P/L is $2.8K. It's a roughly 2.8% return on the total assets of ETP and TOS. I missed some LP entries in the trending days this week. Trading two personal accounts distract me sometimes. 

The main improvement of the week: I placed stop-loss orders most of the time. I still forget to do it from time to time.  

I will try to trade 1 DTE IC 100 next week if the vol is not going to be too high. The risk is the mid-day reversal. I have to enforce the stop-loss rules to build my confidence. 

A Week Of Recovery 7-8-22

 The major indices closed a positive week. SPX and RUT upped 3% and 5%. They both closed above 20 SMA.  However, they didn't break out the ranges of last week. The down-trend is still intact. 

My IB is up 1K at 81K with the July 4th shortened week. The leverage is slightly lowered at 653. The realized P/L is $22653. The collected cash is $2.1K mainly from an increased risk rollout. I maintained a small negative delta since the down-trend is present. The tide could turn at any time. 

The 0 DTE system is back to normal. I am cautiously trading both ETP and TOS accounts. The collected cash is 2.25K for this week. I started to place stop-loss orders after my orders were filled. I took the first stop-loss in TOS today. It didn't feel too bad. I made it break even after the stop. 

I need to be more consistently adding the stop-loss orders. It's for the 1-5% outliers. 

Watch for the key levels to release my orders. 

A Less Negative Week With A Little Hope 7-1-22

 The major indices booked another down week. However, the ranges were smaller. They retested the breakout areas of last week. These areas held the retest for now. The majors formed small green candles for June after three consecutive monthly red candles. The first six months of 2022 are in the book now. It is the worst performance since 1970 according to Dow Jones. The down-trend is still intact. 

The IB Netliq is up 10K at 77.9K for the week. The leverage came below 70. The realized gain is about 3K with only $600 cash. I was able to reduce some of my SC and SP. It may take a long time to get back to the pre-crash level. I am making progress. 

I made the transition from ET to TOS. The small accounts booked $1670 cash for the week. The poor performance is due to the rolling of these losing positions. This practice caused me time opportunities. I started to enter stop-loss orders right after the order was filled. I have to correct my old habit of no stop-loss orders. I will make a rule of entry for 0 DTE:

1. Study and mark the levels of S/R daily with ATR;

2. Wait 15 minutes after the market opens;

3. Place a stop-loss order right after the order is filled.