Another Storm Just Started 8-26-22

 The major indices were rangebound the first four days of the week. All eyes were on J Powell's speech in Jack Hole. The CPE Index and Personal Income/Spending numbers were slightly better than expected. J Powell's speech on Friday broke all the hell out. He didn't say anything new but had a somewhat hawkish tone. The market started selling off after an initial pop. The majors ended the day down from 3.3%-4.5%. It looks like the beginning of another selloff for the market. The downturn matches the seasonality as well. We are in the dangerous zoon again.  

The IB Netliq is down 1.4K at 126K. I sent 20K back to BOA as planned. The leverage is up about 15% from 335 to 392. The realized P/L is +$4640. The cash collected is a mere $700. I plan to aggressively adjust my positions with the delta measurement considering the expected pullback. I will try to reduce my bullish positions as soon as this Sunday night. I need to correct my habit of being late in the game. I have to record the delta dollars of my positions. 

The 0 DTE performed lower than expected. It was mainly due to my failure to enforce my rules. The system collected $2,460. it booked a loss of $2610 after Friday's rollout in ET.  I fall into another trap with the split from SC to LP in ET. 

Lessons Learned:

1. Be patient. I have improved somewhat with consciousness. I tend to act too early during a volatile market. I often get fooled by wild swings.  

2. Be proactive in adjusting my positions when the market condition changes. 

3. Look at both trees and forests. I started to mark the levels of EMs which helped me to see the bigger pictures.

4. Practice self-discipline in every action.  

 

The 200 SMA Resistances 8-19-22

 The major indices snapped their 4-week bull run. The 200 SMA provided strong resistance. The weekly downtrend channels are still intact for SPX and RUT.  The daily uptrend is slightly broken. It's a healthy pullback expected. A further P/B to the 20 SMA is possible.  

The IB account experienced another devastating week. The Netliq is around 50K, limiting my ability to roll any expiring positions. I was thinking about liquidating the entire account for about 50K. But there wasn't enough cash to do so. I decided to transfer more money to roll these SC positions for a better time to liquidate. It may reduce the damage. I added 90K into IB with 20K on hold until August 22. I will move some money out as soon as the on-hold funds are released on Monday. The Northlake fund needs to be paid back. This is the largest money infusion I ever did. 

The realized P/L is a whopping 61K loss in the IB account for the week. I rolled 3 deep ITM SC after the 17% rally. I also spent over 10K cash to buy up some strikes during the rolls. This situation really stressed me out. I don't have a clear solution on how to unwind it other than follow the market movement. 

The 0 DTE is the only bright spot. The trades in ET made $1830 realized profit. The TOS deep ITM 4125 SC continued to be a drag. I paid $200 to roll the position out without gaining any points. I will never trade 0 DTE without stop-loss again. 

The Bulls Keep Running 8-12-22

 The rally continued into the fourth week. The indices broke out of their weekly downtrend. The better-than-expected CPI and PPI fueled the rally for the last 3 days. RUT crossed its 200 SMA today. SPX is only about 50 points below it. The seasonality has not played out this week. 

I wasn't well prepared for this rally. My IB suffered further. The netliq is down another 11K including the 9K cash for buying back 3 positions. My rolling and hedging ability is restricted by IB. The leverage is at 10.72. The highest level ever recorded. The realized P/L is -5884. The cash is -8900 since I had to buy back 3 positions to void forced liquidation. I may have to continue to close my SPX positions to reduce my leverage. 

The 0 DTE is still working. The TOS ITM short call continued to be a drag. I kept rolling it for over a week now. The original $1800 premiums were not worth the time and effort. The two accounts collected $1950 for this week. It only averaged $390 per day. I tried another 1 DTE IC. It was a scratch. 

I must prepare to unwind most of my SPX and RUT positions in IB. I don't have much room to hedge or roll. It's going to be my most significant loss after the years of undisciplined rolling. On the positive side, I may be free to concentrate on the more productive trading systems. 

 

A Consolidation Week 8-5-22

 The major indices consolidated awaiting the unemployment report and NFP this week. SPX and RUT stayed in the 4100 range and 1900 range respectively. However, both the unemployment report and NFP didn't produce any breakout. The NFP today was a big surprise with the doubled new hire numbers. The majors dropped initially. Then they recovered at the EOD. They still appeared bullish. Could it be a bull trap like last May? 

The IB Netliq is up 3K to 63K. There is nothing to write to home about it. The leverage is slightly down from 933 to 866. It's the result of lower vol. The realized P/L is -5.1K. The collected cash is -4.4K. I had spent 3.6K to close an SP position due to the low B/P with a red warning. I was panicked to do it without exploring other options during a night session. I was able to eliminate one SC position today. But I had to add one more 3760 SP to Dec. I will continue to adjust based on market trends. The number of SPX positions is the highest in my records. I must spend more funds to reduce them. They are lost anyway. 

The 0 DTE collected only $1170 this week. The poor performance was dragged by the rollout from last week. The lost time and opportunity. I start placing stop-loss orders again. 

Lessons Learned:

1. It's easy to do it. It's also easy not to do it, but it will cause regrets and bigger losses not to do it. 

2. Take the loss while it's not too big.