The Seasonal Rally Is Intact 11-25-22

 The major indices closed up this Thanks Giving week. The formations are conflicting. In the shorter term, they are in daily and weekly bull flags. However, the bear channel of 2020 is still intact. The weekly lower lows and lower highs have not changed. So far the shorter term is bullish. The long-term is bearish.

The IB Netliq was up 14K before I sent 10K back to ETP. The leverage is down 4% from 268 to 279. The realized P/L is 6035. The cash premiums are $1437. The favorable figures were helped by the low VIX and consolidated price ranges. 

My 0 DTE continued suffering from the TOS SCs. I was able to reverse one of the SCs to SP. The SP was closed on Wednesday. It reduced my risk and margin. The cash collected is only about $500. I didn't trade in IBP on Wednesday due to the FOMC Minutes release. Friday was a half day. I didn't want to take the risk. 

The lessons learned:

1. Recognize the None Stop trade causes much more with required high margin and lost opportunity;

2. I set a goal for trading like the best-disciplined traders. I need to constantly remind myself of every trade. Take a short pain in order to void the long pain. Failure is not an option from now on.  

A Resting Week 11-18-22

 The major indices took a breath this week after the big surges of last week. They closed slightly down for the week but held support levels. It appears the rally is not fading. The expected seasonal pullback hasn't happened yet. Could it happen during the Thanks Giving week? 

IB Net liq increased by 26.3K for the week. It benefited mainly from the range-bound market. The leverage is down 21%, from 353 to 280. The realized P/L is - $68K mainly from the roll-out of early this year. The collected cash is $1.12K. Overall it was a less eventful week.  

The 0 DTE trades are still in a slump. The 3 TOS SCs are still suffering from my mistake. I was only able to increase about 5K B/P. IBP has one stop out. I didn't trade the 0 DTE today due to the OPEX. This week's cash income is barely $300. 

Lessons Learned:

1. Double-check the orders, especially during the volatile time. 

2. Recognizing my emotions. The daily medication practice helped me to stay calm. 

3. Do not wave the stop-loss rules in the moment of heat. Stay disciplined.    

A Big Reversal After A Better CPI Report 11-11-2022

 The major indices staged a significant reversal after Thursday's 0.2-0.3% better-than-expected CPI report Thursday. SPX and RUT gained 5.5 and 6.5% on that day alone. It's the best one-day gain since Feb 2020. QQQ performed the best with an 8% gain. This reversal is the best week of the year so far. It may be the start of the year-end rally. 

The IB Netliq is down 0.6K for the week. I wasn't prepared for that big reversal after the CPI. The leverage is up from 337 to 353, +4.5%. The realized P/L is -$9.2K. The collected cash is only $1.46K. I missed the big runup last two days. The loss was partially caused by my breaking the -1+1 rule. 

The 0 DTE system dragged by the ITM positions in TOS. The 3 3880 SCs are deep ITM after the CPI 5.5% rally. The 2 small accounts collected $3.8K cash. TOS booked over 20K losses with the ITM SCs. I am still working to unwind these positions.  It was caused by my fear of losing and my failure to stop. 

Lessons Learned:

1. I can only control my actions. I can't control the market behavior. That's why I have to follow my rules. 

2. Always look for the opposite possibility. Compare alternative solutions for my objectives. 

3. Meditation is helping me to stay calm. Keep practicing it daily. 

A Week In Red After FOMC 11-4-22

 The major indices gave back their gains after FOMC raised another 0.75% rate on Wednesday. The rest of the week was volatile in exploring directions. The majors closed this week in the red. The indices' downtrends are still intact. The large caps and small caps are in a better place than SPX and NQ.  The catalysts for next week are the mid-term election and CPI report on Tuesday and Thursday. 

The IB Netliq is up 33K to 133K. The leverage was down to 337 from 492 last week. It's the first time below 400 in the previous two months. The options' value decreased by 20K from 372K to 351K. The realized P/L is 37.6K. The cash collected is $1.9K. I estimated about $500 in interest and dividends. The good results for the week were mainly from the reduced size and risk. Luck in the none directional week is a factor too. 

The 0 DTE didn't do well this week. It only collected about $1000. I skipped trading on FOMC Wednesday. I didn't manage well my TOS 3700 SPs. It was a big reversal day after the NFP report. My SCs were stopped right before the price fall. My SPs were too early and threatened as well. I lowered the SPs by adding SCs before the 2:30 reversal. The fear of losing took place despite of I already had LP hedges in place. Then, the 1.5% rally in EOD pushed the SCs ITM. I didn't have a stop-loss plan for the SCs. I had to roll the 3745 SCs to next Monday. I also made mistake in the contract quantities. I reversed 4 instead of 3 contracts. The risk was increased and carried to next week. 

Lessons learned:

1. Patience is still my problem. I should pay more attention to the time of the day. There are certain times when the market tends to be more active and make count-trend moves. 

2. Try to recognize my emotions, especially during a volatile time.  Learn to step back and wait. 

3. Void over managing my positions.  It may not be worth adjusting anything less than 10 strikes.