The Pullback Before The Election 11-2-2024

 I missed two weeks of my weekly reviews although I thought it was only one week. I was stressed and disappointed with my performance during the two weeks. I was worried about how I survive the deep drawdown. The margin limits in both accounts restrained my ability to adjust my DITM positions when SPX held above 5820. The major indices finally broke down this week. SPX lost the 20 DMA support and closed above the 50 DMA support. It lost 1.5% this week and booked the second consecutive losing week. The uncertainty of this election finally kicked into the market sentiment. The election result could last days or weeks before it is settled. 

IBQ Netliq is up 19% from 88468 to 99452. The realized P/L is -17201. The collected cash is $4285. The options' value went down 1% from 509K to 496K. I made a big mistake by closing Nov 1 5475 SC for $41.4K on Oct 14. I couldn't reenter the position because of the margin limit. I was totally stressed out and tired that night. It was a devastating blow for me. The delta is down from -149 to -50 with the market pullback. The leverage is down 13.5% from 789 to 683. It's still dangerously elevated. VIX is above 20 into the election week. The total positions are C6-1 and P7+0. I made 42 trades that cost $150 in commissions this week. I didn't add any 1-1-2 trade due to the election uncertainty. I didn't have much gains in directional trades. 

IBQ had another big losing month in October. The realized P/L is -52600 rolling out these DITM SCs. The collected cash is -$38,136 including the error close of SC 5475 for $41K, +-$8.5K stop loss. It was a disastrous month.   

IBP got some relief from the pullback this week. The netliq is up 10K from 133K to 144K. SMA is up slightly from 7.8K to 9.4K. It's from the narrowing of the SC spread and collected cash. They could disappear again if SPX rallies again. There are 5 SCs and 4 SPs currently. I couldn't exit any SP due to the pullback. The cash collected is $1039. The realized P/L is $9447. Both cash and P/L offset some losses from previous weeks. I traded 2 put lottos with 3x returns. I still have strong FOL emotions in directional trades. 

IBP lost -$14,121 in realized P/L in October. The cash collection is -$9,203. I had to pay cash to roll the 5 SCs daily for most of the month. The call spreads are stretched. 

Lessons and Plans:

1. Enforcing stop losses is still an issue for me. I have to have stop-loss orders ready in IBQ before the market pullback. IBP has an SMA limitation. 

2. My stop-loss rules are A. Take 3X losses if the premiums are less than $1000; 

                                        B. Take 2.5X losses if the premiums are between $1000 to $1800;

                                        C. Take 2X losses if the premiums are above $1800.   

3. Recognize my big drawdowns accurse when the trend changes and I don't have stop-loss orders in place. 

4. Spend more time on how to hedge the election volatility. It's going to be a big week with the election on Thursday and FOMC on Wednesday.  Sometimes doing less is better than doing more when the emotions are high.  

      

Break To New High Again 10-11-24

 SPX broke out to the upside after the 12-day rangebound below 5800. PPI and the banks' earnings triggered the breakout to 5815 late last week. YM also closed another ATH above 43100. Will NQ and RUT follow the suit? The 40+ years of election seasonality have yet played out this year. It could be in a reversed order: buying the rumor and selling on the news. 

IBQ Netliq is down 7% from 99K to 92K for the week. It had 2 days above 100K before the breakout. The realized P/L is $14690 as I closed and rolled in several SPs. The collected cash is -$1431. I had to buy back a SP for $4K to avoid a red warning one night. I later realized I could have rolled an SP to a near DTE to void the red sign. The SPX long calls and MES made some profits this week. The options' value went up with the rally from -537K to -545K.  The delta went up 12% from -410 to -466. The leverage is up from 740 to 815. These measurements are elevated to the dangerous level again. VIX stayed above 20 as the rally continued. VIX usually would be below 15 when the new highs were made. Does it mean something? We will see how it plays out. The total positions are C7-11 and P5-2 with the In and Out offset. There were 49 trades for the week. The commission cost is $185. I didn't add 1-1-2 trade due to the CPI, and PPI events. 

IBP SC spreads positions are stretched to the limits. I didn't know that SMA played a critical role in limiting the spread expansion. I couldn't roll the SCS more than 1 day out which cost me dearly. There are 5 SCs and 4 SPs into next week. I left one SP available in case I need more adjustments on Monday.  The realized P/L is $-20309. The cash collected is -5197. I had to sell 24 HD and 16 QQQ for $17758 to shore off the SMA liquidation warnings in the last 3 days of the week. I may have to put some fresh money in early next week. This situation really stresses me out. 

1. I didn't add Stop-loss orders to every new position this week. I realized it would cause the SMA balance to go into negative in the IBP account. I have to figure out a different way to make stop-losses. 

2 I am still working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading. It's like the phoenix flying out from the ashes. 

3. My stop-loss rules are A. Take 3X losses if the premiums are less than $1000; 

                                        B. Take 2.5X losses if the premiums are between $1000 to $1800;

                                        C. Take 2X losses if the premiums are above $1800. 

        The stop-loss is the rule but there are considerations for Delta, Netliq, and the total positions.    

4. The IBP account is limited to spread expansion. I need to figure out the numbers or percentage of the balance tolerance. I may put free money into the account instead of selling stocks. Because selling stocks doesn't give a full cushion for SMA.    

5. I continue to work on the sense of accountability and self-discipline. It's a long process of changing my old habits at the subconscious level.                

A Week Of Rangebound 10-5-24

 The majors were in rangebound holding the uptrend for the week. SPX traded between the 5678 and 5672 range. The pullbacks were bought and rallies were sold until Friday's NFP. The NFP was a big surprise to the upside, with 254K vs 150K expected. Down made a closing new high while SPX was only 16 points from an ATH. Tech and small caps are in ranges. The major news events are FOMC Minutes, CPI, and PPI. The major indices are bullish despite the seasonality. I shall pursue this with caution. 

IBQ Netliq is up 11% from 90.3K to 99K with the rangebound week. The realized P/L is -28829 as I had to roll out a couple of DITM SCs. The collected cash is $1967. The SPX long calls and MES barely broke even this week. The options' value is flat from -542K to -537K.  The delta went up 7% from -308 to -410. The leverage is down from 822 to 740. It's still elevated. VIX is up from 19.3 to 20.4. The total positions are C8+1 and P7+0 with the In and Out offset. There were 56 trades for the week. The commission cost is $206. I added one 1-1-2 with one that expired at the end of September.  

The IBP situation is worsening as I had to expand the spreads on the SC side. The rally relieved the SP side but pushed the SC DITM. I exited 2 more SPs but had to add 3 more due to SMA warning. I couldn't roll the SCS more than 1 day out which cost me dearly. There are 5 SCs and 6 SPs into next week.  The realized P/L is $11428. The cash collected is -4313. I had to pay to roll the 5 SCs daily without expanding the spreads too wide. This is like 1000 small cuts in bleeding. 

Lessons and Plans:

1. I didn't add Stop-loss orders to every new position this week. I realized it would cause the SMA balance to go into negative in the IBP account. I have to figure out a different way to make stop-losses. 

2 I am still working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading. It's like the phoenix flying out from the ashes. 

3. My stop-loss rules are A. Take 3X losses if the premiums are less than $1000; 

                                        B. Take 2.5X losses if the premiums are between $1000 to $1800;

                                        C. Take 2X losses if the premiums are above $1800. 

        The stop-loss is the rule but there are considerations for Delta, Netliq, and the total positions.    

4. The IBP account is limited to spread expansion if the rally continues. I need to figure out the numbers or percentage of the balance tolerance.    

5. I continue to work on the sense of accountability and self-discipline. It's a long process of changing my old habits at the subconscious level. 

6. I shall stay calm and focus on recognizing, and controlling my emotions. I am under a great deal of stress with the current account situation. 

Holding At The Top 9-27-24

 SPX and Dow made new highs while NQ and RTY struggled. The Bulls look like a bit tired. SPX couldn't close above 5750 with China's big stimulus package and better PCE data. The SPX's MACD turned red on 2nd day but RSI is still above 86.  The market may reset after the 3-quarter ending on Monday. VIX bounced at 50 DMA. Oct is a seasonally volatile month. I will remain open-minded. 

IBQ Netliq is flat at 90K. The realized P/L is -5097. The collected cash is $1849. The SPX long calls and MEX didn't work out this week. The opening pattern has changed from open drive to open pullback. The options' value increased by 4K from -537K to -542K. The delta went up 7% from -213 to -308. The leverage is up from 813 to 822. It's still very elevated. VIX is up from 16.1 to 19.3. The total positions are C7-0 and P6-1.  I must keep them at the current or lower levels. There were 56 trades for the week. The commission cost is $186. I didn't add any 1-1-2 due to the margin limit. 

The IBP situation is worsening. The rally relieved the SP side but pushed the SC DITM. I exited 2 more SPs but had to add 3 more due to SMA warning. I couldn't roll the SCS more than 2 days out. There are 5 SCs and 5 SPs into next week. Any bigger size move could further damage the netliq and B/P. I may have to take a stop-loss in the SP positions. The realized P/L is -$1789. The cash collected is -3322. I had to pay to roll the SCs without expanding the spreads too wide.

1. I made progress in adding Stop-loss orders to every new position. Luckily none of them were tested this week except the MES. MES tends to get stopped in the middle of the day. I am still working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading. It's like the phoenix flying out from the ashes. 

2. My stop-loss rules are A. Take 3X losses if the premiums are less than $1000; 

                                        B. Take 2.5X losses if the premiums are between $1000 to $1800;

                                        C. Take 2X losses if the premiums are above $1800.    

2. I realized the IBP doesn't have much room to expand if the rally continues. I need to figure out the numbers or percentage of the balance tolerance.    

3. I continue to work on the sense of accountability and self-discipline. It's a long process of changing my old habits at the subconscious level. 

4. I shall stay calm and focus on my emotions during the market hours.

    

Another ATH Since July 9-22-24

SPX and YM made new ATHs after FOMC's 0.5pts rate cut. Techs and small caps were legging behind. The 0.5 pts cut surprised the experts who expected a 0.25 pts reduction. The futures market staged a strong rally the night after the announcement. SPX gapped up over 5700 and ended the day up 95 pts, +1.7%. It closed the week holding above 5700. Next week is critical to see if the Bulls can keep it running. 

IBQ Netliq is down from 102K to 90.3K, -13%. It falls below the 100K mark again. The realized P/L is $48561 with a couple of SPs closed. The collected cash is -$2589. I bought a Dec 6000 call for $4.2K to hedge the uptrend. I closed the NVDA long for 250% gains the day before FOMC. The SPX long calls paid off on FOMC day. The rest of the longs didn't work out well. The options' value increased by 12K, 2.5% from -525K to -537K. The delta went down from -362 to -213. The leverage is up from 673 to 810. VIX is down from 16.8 to 16.1. The total positions are C7-2 and P7-2. I need to keep them at the current levels. There were 82 trades in the monthly Opex. Some of the trades went back to July of this year. The commission cost is $316. I didn't add any 1-1-2 due to the FOMC, and low netliqs this week. There is still 1 SC deep ITM. 

IBP is in a similar situation. The rally relieved the SP side but pushed the SC DITM. I was able to exit 2 more SPs after closing the old ones. There are 5 SCs and 4 SPs into next week. The realized P/L is -$21693. The cash collected is -2609. I had to pay to roll the SCs. The cost of failing to take stops early on. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. I made progress in adding Stop-loss orders to every new position. Luckily none of them were tested this week. I shall release them instead of waiting for the alerts next week. I am sure the stop-loss will happen when the market condition changes. I am still working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading. 

2. I continue to work on the sense of accountability and self-discipline. It's a long process of changing my old habits at the subconscious level. 

3. I shall stay calm and focus on my emotions during the market hours.  

        

The Week Of Reversal Before FOMC 9-14-24

 SPX started going up on Monday after last week's selloff below 100 DMA. It went up in five consecutive days. It was a dramatic reversal of 150 points swings from down 1% to up 1% on Wednesday. It's above 100, 50, and 20 DMAs now. The ATH booked in July is less than 50 points away. It may reach a new high or smackdown during the FOMC week. It will be a volatile week as the Fed is expected to cut the interest rate for the first time in 3 years.     

IBQ Netliq is up 19.7K from 82.3K to 102K, +19.3%. The realized P/L is -3773, a narrowed loss. The collected cash is -$2356. I had to buy many hedges to keep the red warning off. I took losses or missed the winners in the directional trades.  The options' value decreased by 9K from -534K to -525K. The delta went down from +236 to -362. The leverage is down from 868 to 673. VIX is down from 21 to 16.8. The total positions are C9 -0 and P9 -0. There were 67 trades with many hedge buyings. The commission cost is $237. IB increased the commission by 1-2 cents per contract this week. I didn't add any 1-1-2 this week. There is still 1 SC ITM. 

IBP is in a similar situation. The rally relieved the SP side but pushed the SC DITM. I was able to exit 3 SPs on Friday. I had room to add 1 SP for next Tuesday. The realized P/L is $23773. The cash collected is $452. The total positions are C5 +0 and P3 -2.  I am still in the survival mode.

Lessons and Plan:

1. I made stop-loss orders for my positions. But I pulled them out at the last minute during the big reversal on Wednesday. I reversed up twice. I still failed to take the stop. It's hard to change the bad habit. I made progress in setting up the stop-loss orders. I have been working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading.

2. I didn't follow the rule of -1+1 strictly. I was overconfident the side couldn't be breached. It actually blew through several resistant levels on Wednesday. I ended up adding 2 SCs. They cause over $17K under water now. 

3. I shall stay calm and less active during the big news events.  

   

A Selloff To Start September 9-8-24

 A big -119 pts, 2.1% selloff on Monday, 9-3 after SPX's 56pts, 1% rally to near ATH at the end of August. The pop and drop trapped both bulls and bears. I was one of them. SPX closed down more than 150 pts, 4+% this week. It cut through 50 DMA and right at 100 DMA. The seasonality didn't play out so far. 

IBQ Netliq suffered -10K, 10.7%, from 92K to 82K for the Labor Day shortened week. It gave back all the gains from last week. The realized P/L is -37605. A huge blow from the 4% selloff. The collected cash is $1295+$1673 interest. Most of my directional trades didn't work out either by the reversal or closed too early. The options' value increased by 4K from -534K to -538K. The delta went up from -245 to +236. The leverage is up from 786 to 868. VIX is up from 15 to 21. The total positions are C9 +1 and P9 +1. The added SP cost the thinner margin. There were 31 trades for the 4-day week. The commission cost is $129. The margin and delta didn't allow any addition of 1-1-2 trade. I was able to exit three of the 4 ITM SCs during the selloff.    

IBP is in a similar situation. The selloff pushed the SPs DITM. The realized P/L is $31212 for the week with some rolls for next week. The cash collected is $1750+980 interest. I traded Infra's calls but didn't make much profit. I will continue to try. The NVDA ER IC paid off on the short side. The total positions are C5 +0 and P5 +2. The SP is hurting now. There is no SC exit insight either. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. I made stop-loss orders for my positions. But I failed to release them on Monday based on my bias, not the rules. I have been working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading. It has become clear during my meditations that the underlying cause of my failure is the fear of losing. I fear of stop-losses. I fear losing before entering a directional trade. It's a subconscious behavior.  

2. I am reflecting on what has gone wrong in my trading for the last 10 months. The things I could control are the position sizes and stop losses. I couldn't be successful without either of them.  

3. Follow the rule of -1+1 strictly. 

5. Recognize my emotions. Fear and overconfidence are both dangers. Let the urges flow through. 

6. Be objective. My bias about the market direction often affects my decisions. Be flexible and watch the S/R levels hourly and daily. 

Consolidation Ready To Breakout? 9-1-24

 SPX and NQ consolidated in current ranges for the past 10 days, up 4th week.  YM, the large-cap already made new ATHs. SPX is less than a half percent from the new ATH while NQ is holding at 50 DMA. S&P, equal-weighted index made several new highs already. The rotation to other sectors continues as the Fed rate cut is near. The first part of September is bullish seasonally. 

IBQ Netliq stays below 100K. The position adjustments are still limited. The netliq is up 10K, 11% from 82K to 92K after I collected 20K with a 5875 DITM SP.  The realized P/L is -17815. The collected cash is $23532. It was from the forced rolling of DITM 5680 to 5780 SP. I may have to use the fund to adjust Delta and positions. The options' value increased by another 2.6% from -521K to -535K. The delta went down from -370 to -245. The leverage is down from 841 to 786. The collected 20K cash helped to make the delta and leverage down slightly. VIX is in the 15 range. The total positions are C8 +0 and P8 +0. There were 70 trades for the week. Many of the trades were short-term hedges. The commission cost is $208. I added one 1-1-2 for Oct. The 4 XSP SC are still ITM after rollout. Overall, not much improvement was made for the week. 

IBP is in a similar situation. The fourth-week rally overwrote the inverted RR. The realized P/L is $6688 for the week. The cash collected is $-560. I traded Infra's calls but didn't make profits. I will continue to try. The total positions are C5 +0 and P5 +2. There is no SC exit insight. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. I have been working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading. It has become clear during my meditations that the underlying cause of my failure is the fear of losing. I fear of stop-losses. I fear losing before entering a directional trade. It's a subconscious behavior.  

2. I have been reflecting on what had gone wrong in my trading for the last 10 months. The things I could control are the position sizes and stop losses. I couldn't be successful without either of them. 

3. The word accountability popped up when I woke up one-night last week. I have not held myself accountable for my trading mistakes.  The first step should be to place a stop-loss order right after a position is filled. 

4. Follow the rule of -1+1 strictly. 

5. Recognize my emotions. Fear and overconfidence are both dangers. Let the urges flow through. 

6. Be objective. Watch the S/R levels hourly and daily.                       

Limited Ability To Adjust Positions 8-24-24

 The major indices close another week in green. SPX and NQ booked three consecutive weekly gains. Both are near ATHs. Will they break out to new highs or just retest the breakdown areas for double tops? The MACD daily for SPX and NQ is showing divergence and crossing down. RSI is above 80 for overbought conditions. Thursday's bearish engulfing candle may take a few days to play out. Keep in mind the uptrend is still strong. 

IBQ Netliq stayed below the 100K mark. It fell 11% from 92.7K to 82.1 K. The realized P/L is 4537. I started to roll out 8-30 DITM SCs. They are hopelessly ITM. The cash collected is $2531 for the week. Thanks to Infra's long calls. I continued to buy hedges to keep the account afloat. The options' value increased by another 3% from -504.6K to -521.7K. The delta went to deeper red from -175 to -370. The leverage is up another 15% from 715 to 841. It's highly elevated. VIX is up slightly from 14.8 to 15.9. Is it a meaningful divergent? The total positions are C8 +0 and P7 -1.  There were 41 trades for the week. Many of the trades were short-term hedges. The commission cost is $124. The 1-1-2 positions got slapped on the SC side like the SPX SCs. The XSP 4 SCs are ITM. I plan to take stop losses if the market doesn't pull back next week.        

IBP got lopsided further with the crash and continued rally. The IB margin increase didn't have a meaningful impact on the account netliq.  The realized P/L is $1667 for the week. The cash collected is $-147. The total positions are C5 +0 and P3 -1. There is no SC exit insight. I can only gradually bring the strikes up. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. It has become clear during my meditations that the underlying cause of my failure is the fear of losing. I fear of stop-losses. I fear losing before entering a directional trade. It's a subconscious behavior. I have to consciously correct such behavior and be brave. 

2. I have been reflecting on what had gone wrong in my trading for the last 10 months. The things I could control are the position sizes and stop losses. I couldn't be successful without either of them. 

3. Place a stop-loss order right after a position is filled. 

4. Follow the rule of -1+1 strictly. 

5. Recognize my emotions. Fear and overconfidence are both dangers. Let the urges flow through. 

6. Be objective. Watch the S/R levels hourly and daily.       

Things Can Get Worse Than One Expected 8-16-24

 The major indices made a full recovery from the August 2nd selloff. SPX was up every day of the week. It gained 3.9%, the best weekly gain in 2024. It cut through Fib 50, 61.8% resistant levels, and back in the 5480 to 5670 balance area. SPX is above the 50, 20 DMA, and 2% from the ATH of 5669 made in mid-July. It was an incredible, face-rip rally. I thought about the possibility of a V-shaped bottom but wasn't fully prepared for it. I had to adjust my positions hour by hour because of the limited B/P.  SPX has fully recovered from the August 1st selloff.      

IBQ Netliq was back above 100K during the early rally. Delta got pushed into a negative reading after the gap up by the better jobless report on Thursday. The Netliq is down 11K, -11% from 104K to 92K. The 41K margin call on August 8 had a significant negative impact on my netliq recovery. The realized P/L is -42.3K. These SCs got squeezed deep in the red. I made a mistake in adding one SC during the early pop last week. The cash collected is -$172 for the week. I continued to buy hedges to keep the account afloat. The options' value increased by 4% from 486.6K to -504.6K. The delta went to deep red from -15 to -175. The leverage is up 11% from 619 to 715. It's highly elevated. VIX is down from down from 24 to 14.8. The total positions are C8 +0 and P8 -0. There were 44 trades for this OPEX week. The commission cost is $174. The 1-1-2 positions got slapped on the SC side like the SPX SCs. The LC hedge I bought earlier helped to roll the two 547 SCs. The XSP SCs are ITM. I plan to take stop losses if the market doesn't pull back next week. 

IBP got lopsided further with the crash and pop. I added 25K more from my IRA after IB announced the margin increase after 8-16. The realized P/L is -$419 for the week. The cash collected is $-3349. I had to spend money to roll all positions one week away before IB increased the margin over the weekend. It was a chaotic and costly week. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. I kept thinking about what had gone wrong in my trading for the last 10 months. The things I could control are the position sizes and stop losses. I couldn't be successful without either of them. 

2. Place a stop-loss order right after a position is filled. 

3. Follow the rule of -1+1 strictly. 

3. Recognize my emotions. Fear and overconfidence are both dangers. Let the urges flow through. 

4. Be objective. I should not assume the market will go my way until the criteria are met.     

                

The Earthquake Of Japanese Carry Trade 8-9-24

In the Japanese stock market, a black swan event happened on Sunday (8/4/24) night (US time). It started crashing after opening as the Japanese 0 interest policy started changing. Many financial institutions had to unwind their Japanese Yen 0% interest rate carry trades. The NIKKEI index was down 12% and SPX was -3% by midnight here. It was like an earthquake in the market. I have never seen a developed market down 12% in one day. 

IBQ Netliq took another blow with the Japanese Yen crash. I started to buy SPX puts to defend my portfolio on Sunday night. The netliq went down to 50K. The account was restricted to hedge or close positions only. VX shot off the roof. I placed a $40K wire transfer order from ETQ to IBQ for Monday morning. The pressure was very intense that night. I stayed up until 3AM. The red liquidation warning was eliminated for the time being. SPX opened down 3% the next morning. The 5120 level was defended and buyers showed up. By the end of the week, SPX was flat as nothing happened but some real damage was done. The netliq was down 20.4K, -28%. The realized P/L is -8512. The cash collected is -$42,606 including the forced 5630SP closing for $41470 on August 8. I spent over $ 1.2K to buy hedges. The options' value decreased by 7% from 524.3K to -486.6K. The forced closed 5630SP affected the value change. The delta is flat at -15. The leverage is down from 992 to 619. The paid hedges helped temporarily.  The total positions are C8 -1 and P8 -2. The netliq is barely above 100K and faces a liquidation warning over the weekend. There were 38 trades for the week. The commission cost is $110. I only had time to deal with the 3 August 1-1-2 positions until this Wednesday. I lowered the SPs and added SCs. The 3 bear traps are ITM now. 

IBP got lopsided further with the crash and pop. I added 10K to make the rolling easier. The failed stop loss SP dragged the netliq down further. I did a risk reversal to the SC at the lowest point Tuesday night. It was a trade of fear. The market popped the next morning. I broke the rule of -1+1 on the SC side again. The realized P/L is $8442 for the week. The cash collected is $-3915. I had to spend money to roll these 5 DITM SPs. It's more than 1000 small cuts. I will be in more trouble if the bottom is in. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. Anything is possible in the financial market. The only thing I can control is my emotions and discipline. 

2. I will reserve an account for emergency expenses when and if I am out of this situation.

3. Place a stop-loss order right after a position is filled. 

4. Recognize the emotions. Fear and overconfidence are both dangers. Let the urges flow through.    

 

              

A Disaster Week and Month in July

 SPX closed its third down week. The selling accelerated after the FOMC head-fake popped to 20 DMA. The July NFP on Friday was +114K v.s. 176K expected. The 62K fewer jobs surprised the market. The broad market sold off. SPX was down 100 pts, -1.85%. NQ fell 2.4% into the correction territory. SPX ended down three consecutive weeks. It's -6.5% from the ATH of 5670 on July 16. It closed right above the 100 DMA and 20 WMA. These were the support levels for previous pullbacks. It also touched the Fib 50% P/B level from April to July. 

IBQ Netliq suffered the biggest loss in the last 2 years. It's down from 119.8K to 70.8K, -49K, -41% in one week. The last week of July included two days in August. I totally mishandled the volatile week and ignored the seasonality. I forgot the lesson of the major event rule. The realized P/L is -$77,306. I failed to set up the stop loss at 3X for the RR-adjusted positions. The cash collected is -$2370 as I spent over $4.8 K to buy hedges in the last 3 days. I remember this is the first time with negative cash flow for this account. The options' value is almost up 10%,+40K from -484K to -524.3K. The delta doubled from 107 to 217 with this -4% week. The leverage is up 45% from 548 to 992, the highest of the year again.  The total positions are C9 +2 and P10 +2. The number of the SP is the major cause of the drawdown. The account is in deep red and faces a liquidation warning over the weekend. There were 109 trades for the week. The commission cost is $394. I traded AMD options back and forth to void any possible assignment. There are only 2 positions left for next week. It's not worth the risk and effort to trade these single stocks. I didn't add a 1-1-2 for the week because the August ones are underwater now.       

The IBP account suffered a big loss from my overconfidence and breaking rules.  The SCs had some recovers while the SPs deep ITM during the selloff. I split an SP 1:2 the day after FOMC. I was confident the rally would continue. It was faded at 20 DMA. I failed to place a stop-loss order and I  ended up holding the losing bag. I broke the rule of position -1+1. The realized P/L is -$24168 for the week. It washed the gains from last week. The cash collected is -$713. The 6 SPs are deep ITM as the 5 SCs. I will close the 5370SC to release some b/p on Monday.  

Lessons and Plan:

1. Be objective. I tend to guess or wish the market to act in certain ways. Have different market scenarios and plans accordingly. Be aware that the market may be up, down, or flat.  

2. Place a stop-loss order right after a position is filled. 

3. 3. Recognize the emotions. Fear and overconfidence are both dangers. Let the urges flow through.    

 

The 2nd Down Week To The 50 DMA 7-26-24

 The big rotation from tech to old large and small cap continues this week. S&P and NQ are down while Dow and RUT are up for the week. SPX reclaimed the 50 DMA. It's below the 20 DMA and above the gap between 5400-5367. The market is still in the woods. MACD and RSI are both in the negative territory with slight upticks. However, the weeklies are pointing down toward the 20 WMA around 5300. The upcoming FOMC on Wednesday, July 31 will catalyze the next leg up or down.  

IBQ Netliq continues the drawdown with this pullback. It's down 5.5%, -4.4K from 124.3K to 119.9K, setting a new year's low. The realized P/L is +$7793 as some short calls rolled out. The cash collected is merely $762. Most of the directional trades didn't work out. The options' value is flat 484K, +4K. The delta is down from 166 to 107. The leverage is up nearly 5.5% from 518 to 548, the highest of the year again.  The total positions are C7 -1 and P8 -0. The yellow and red warnings are coming back. There were 84 trades for the week. I traded AMD options back and forth to void a possible assignment. A couple of MES directional trades worked out. The commission cost is $272. I added an 8/30, 36 DTE 1-1-2 trade before the gap down on 7/24. The drawdown is worse than last week. My plan didn't work as it heavily depended on the market movements.

The IBP account got mixed results with the pullback. The SCs had some recovers while the SPs deep ITM. The realized P/L is $22403 for the week, a positive number for a change. The cash collected is only $339. It's in a surviving mode. The 4 SPs are deep ITM as the 5 SCs. I entered these SPs right before the pullback. My impatience caused the latest double jeopardy. 

Lessons and Plan: Similar to last week's. 

1. Be objective. I tend to guess or wish the market to act in certain ways. Have different market scenarios and plans accordingly.   

2. Respect the signs and indicators. Do not act when in doubt.  

3. Recognize the emotions. I am currently in the down mode. Let the urges flow through.    

4. Look for other ideas to resolve the current drawdown. Have more hedge and directional positions.

5. The current rolling strategy is unsustainable. I will enforce the 3X stop rule for adjusted positions to contain the risk.  

    

The Worst Down Week Since April 7-19-24

 The rotations to the small caps and other assets continued for the week. S&P and NQ suffered a big loss.  There were signs that the market was going to pull back. I ignored the signs for fear of going higher. There was bad economic news. The earning session started well with the large banks. It was the law of gravity in play. 

IBQ Netliq is down quite big with this selloff. It's down 19.6K, -14% from 144K to 124K for the week. It sets a new low for the year. The portfolio is feeble for any large move in either direction. My emotions affected my positioning as well. The realized P/L is -$32968. The cash collected is -$1561. I took a stop loss for the only BFP I took this week. It's progress that I took a stop loss. It didn't feel bad at all. The directional trades had mixed results. It's a loss in total. The options' value is up 3% from -466K to 480K, +14K. The delta is up from  -46 to +166. The leverage is up nearly 17% from 432 to 518, the highest of the year. The total positions are C8 +3 and P8 -0. The yellow and red warnings are coming back. There were 84 trades for the Opex week. The commission cost is $299. I didn't add a 1-1-2 trade since the netliq is low. The drawdown is worsening this week. 

The IBP account was relieved by the pullback. I pulled up 150 points for three DITM SCs. Two of the three were for the old TOS positions. The SPs are ITM currently. The realized P/L is -$2395 for the week. The cash collected is $854. I traded 0DTE and took stops. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. Be objective. I tend to guess or wish the market to act in certain ways. Have different market scenarios and plans accordingly.   

2. Respect the signs and indicators. Do not act when in doubt.  

3. Recognize the emotions. Let the urges flow through.    

4. Look for other ideas to resolve the current drawdown.          

Volatility Without VIX 7-12-24

 SPX made 5 intra-day ATHs this week. It closed the weekly ATH above 5610. It booked 6 consecutive up weeks. The rally expanded to the large caps and small caps. The two inflation reports provided contradicting information. CPI was down 0.1% while PPI listed up 0.2%. The market reacted in opposite directions to the reports. It sold off on CPI and popped up with PPI. SPX was down and up 1% in the last two days. The VIX barely moved. There is no fear in the market right now. The bulls are in control. 

IBQ Netliq is down $3K, -2% from 147K to 144K. It made a weekly low of the year. The result indicated that I needed to be more aggressive in adjusting the deltas.  The realized P/L is $8396. The cash collected is only $2757 for the week. It included one BFP winner. I followed my plan to trade long calls. The results are positive. The options' value is up 2.2% from -454.7K to 466.1K, +11.4K. The delta is up from  -218 to -46. The leverage is up 4.7% from 412 to 432. It's an alarming level above 400. The total positions are C5 -1 and P8 -0. The small position numbers kept me out of the yellow and red warnings. There were a total of 41 trades for the week. It's an average of 8 trades per day. The commission cost is $156. I added one 42 DTE, 1-1-2 trade for August 23. 

The 2 small accounts are worsting with the new highs. I finally transferred most of the TOS assets to IBP after 4 attempts. It's part of my rescue plan. I now have the flexibility to adjust the positions.  The realized P/L is $-6959 for the week. There were no trades in TOS during the transfer period. The total cash is +117. I had to spend $800 to roll the two TOS positions to the end of the month. IBP and TOS had +$877 and $-760 each. 

Lessons and Plan: They are the same as last week except the stress level is higher. 

1. It's important to keep the size small. The small size will reduce the red and yellow warnings. 

2. Have patience in directional trades. I have different emotions when in such trades.  

3. Stay calm and disciplined. Make myself a little better every day.          

4. Adjust the positions more aggressively. Starting from the far-dated positions. 

5. Think ahead and have plans for different market conditions. 

6. Overcome the fear of being wrong.    

               

Flying Up & Away 7-5-24

This week, SPX and NQ rose to new highs while the Dow and RUT stayed in ranges. SPX broke above 5560 and headed to 5600. MACD just crossed up. RSI is over 75. The economic calendar has J. Power testify in Congress on Tuesday, CPI, and PPI on Thursday and Friday. It's going to be a busy week. The seasonality is favoring the bulls for the first two weeks of July. 

IBQ Netliq is down 11K, 7% from 163.5K to 147K after the 5K transfer to BOA. The realized P/L is $11993. The cash collected is only $1328 for the 4-day week. The little cash profit is mainly from the long calls. I followed my plan to trade longs. I didn't trade the BF setup this week considering the position sizes. The options' value is up 3.2% from -442K to -454.7K, +12.7K. The delta is down from 25 to -218. The leverage is up 12% from 362 to 412. It's an alarming level above 400. The total positions are C6-0 and P8 -1. There were a total of 36 trades for the week. It's an average of 9 trades per day. The commission cost is $135. I added one 43 DTE, 1-1-2 trade for August 16. 

The 2 small accounts are in the worst situation for the year with the new highs. I had to add 5K cash to each account for the Schwab to IBP transfer. The realized P/L is $-31225 for the week. The total lost cash is -1026. IBP and TOS lost $-357 and $-680 each. I spent money to roll IBP positions to save some b/p. The asset transfer from Schwab to IBP was rejected for the 3rd time due to the 2 week expiration requirement. I had to expand 6K for each spread and roll the positions to July 29. These positions are DITM and at risk of liquidation unless I add more funds. 

 Lessons and Plan: They are the same as last week except the stress level is higher. 

1. It's important to keep the size small. The small size will reduce the red and yellow warnings. 

2. Have patience in directional trades. I have different emotions when in such trades.  

3. Stay calm and disciplined. Make myself a little better every day.          

4. Learn this hard lesson of 2024. I will spend money to reduce my holdings and risk       

The Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly Ends

 This is the last week of June. Today's PCE is a major news event. The 0.1% in May is in line with the market expectation. SPX gapped up over 5500 and reached an ATH of 5523. It started to fade after 10:30 and filled the gap by noon. It was a gap and crap I didn't expect. SPX ended the week flat with the ranges of 5523 to 5430. It's the end of the month and the quarter as well. Both are finished strongly. 

IBQ Netliq is up 4% from 157.1K to 163.5K. The realized P/L is $3881. It's basically flat. The cash collected is only $1740. The little cash profit is mainly from the long calls. I followed my plan to trade longs. I didn't trade the BF setup this week. The options' value is down 6.7% from -456.2.3K to -442K, -14.2K. The delta is up from -170 to 25. The leverage is down from 380 to 362. It's still above my ideal level of below 300. The total positions are C6-0 and P9 -0. I traded another risk reversal from 7-3 5230C to 9-19 1:2 5600P and 5475P. It made the delta balanced. There were a total of 50 trades for the week. It's an average of 10 trades per day. The commission cost is $156. I added one 1-1-2 trade for July 31. 

The Netliq is down 12.7% for June, from 187.2K to 163.5K, -23.8K. The realized P/L is $83,261. The options' value is +6.7% from -412.3K to -442K, +29.7K. The cash collected is $7293. It's below my plan to make 10K per month. The delta is up from -41 to 25. The leverage is up 19% from 296 to 362. The total positions are C6-2 and P9 -2. There were a total of 238 trades for the month. It's an average of 48 trades per week. The commission cost is $883. The long trades and 1-1-2 system paid off for the month. 

The 2 small accounts are in the worst situation for the year with the new highs. It has been about a year in a slump. I managed them poorly through the downturn of last fall, and then the reversal from last November. I caused them a devastating situation. The realized P/L is $-1104 for the week. The cash collected is -243. IBP and TOS got $-243 and $0 each. TOS had no activity because I planned to move the most assets to IBP. I made two attempts to transfer the positions and both failed. The Schwab support reps gave me different guidance after each rejection. They now require two weeks to the expiration date before the transfer. I will make another extension for the options next week. 

The realized P/L is -$84636. It's the worst of the year. The cash collected is -$1983. IBP and TOS had $-677 and $-1306 each. It's the first month with negative cash flower. I had to spend money to save some B/P.   

    Lessons and Plan:

1. It's important to keep the size small. The small size will reduce the red and yellow warnings. 

2. Have patience in directional trades. I have different emotions when in such trades.  

3. Stay calm and disciplined. Make myself a little better every day.          

4. Learn this hard lesson of 2024. I will spend money to reduce my holdings and risk.

5. Continue the 1-1-2 trades. I will explore using ES instead of XSP if the margin requirement is more beneficial.