NVDA Induced A Big Rally 2-23-24

SPX pulled back at the end of last week with a double top.  It tested 20 DMA below on Wednesday. The market focused on NVDA ER. Nividia posted another astonishing earnings after AH. The market rallied strongly. I totally underestimated the impact at the beginning. My SPX delta was very negative. I piled in so many SPs to hedge it. NVDA popped 17%, and SPX was up 2% the next day. SPX hit another ATH of 5100. It caused a huge $17K damage to my netliq. 

IBQ Netliq lost 7% from 190K to 177K. It had a 52-week low of 169K on Thursday. The realized P/L is up $16.3K. The collected cash is only $2577. I couldn't trade BFs during the red warning days except one day of the week. The delta is -255. The leverage is up to 301 from 270. It's a warning sign above 300. After so many in and out, the total positions are C10 +0 and P10 +0. There were 73 trades this week. It's higher than usual during the volatile time. The commission cost is $275. There was no fill of 1-1-2 for this week. I wanted to save some B/P. I bought a couple of VIX calls for March expiry. 

The two small accounts slipped further into the holes after the NVDA rally. There was some relief earlier in the week. The realized P/L is -$24,286. I traded 5 BFs in IBP. I had to roll two of them to next Monday. The collected cash is $5896. IBP and TOS got $5618 and $278 each. 

 Lessons and Plans:

1. Pay attention to a possible pullback. Those trend-changing periods tend to damage portfolios. The NVDA rally might have interrupted the expected pullback.  

2. Be quick to adjust my biases and positions when and if the market conditions change. I should adjust the delta according to the current trend.  

3. Remember my daily intentions are "Keep calm, Stay disciplined."     

4. I may have a subconscious fear of sudden liquidation breaks. It doesn't happen that often. Keep in mind the 80/20 rule.  

5. The added mid-day meditation has helped me to stay calm.    

The Inflation Is Sticky 2-16-24

 The CPI and PPI came out hotter than expected for January. They show that inflation is sticky. The bulls shook off the bad news. SPX made another closing ATH at 5030 the day after the CPI report. The Opex had a rug pull in the final trading hour. The seasonality is kicking in as well. In the last three years, the market started a pullback on Feb Opex day. Let's see if it will play out the same way. 

IBQ Netliq is down another 3.5% from 197K to 190K. It set a new 52-week low. It's about 47% off the peak of 360K. The netliq suffered from both up and down days. The realized P/L is down -$48,077. More than half of it was caused by the CPI report selloff on Tuesday. I was limited to adjusting further DTE positions by EOD red B/P. I had to roll out some 0 DTE and expand the spreads on Tuesday. The collected cash is $3,727. I only traded 2 BFs on Monday. I had one debit PS ITM today. The delta is -327. The negative delta helped during today's selloff. The leverage is 270, in line with last week. The total positions are C10 +4 and P10 +1. There were 93 trades this week. Some of them were executed weeks ago as rollouts. The commissions cost $$406. There was no fill of 1-1-2 for this week. I wanted to save some B/P. 

The two small accounts survived another week. The B/P of TOS dropped another 4K from 25K to 21K. I traded 3 BFs in IBP. I could only roll the positions in TOS due to the B/P limit. The realized P/L is $9770. The collected cash is $3465. IBP and TOS got $3144 and $321 each. I need to figure out some creative ways to unwind these DITM positions. 

Lessons and Plans:

1. Pay attention to a possible pullback. Those transitional periods tend to damage portfolios. 

2. Be quick to adjust my biases and positions when and if the market conditions change. 

3. Remember my daily intentions are "Keep calm, Stay disciplined." 

          

Gap Ups and New Highs 2-8-24

 The bulls are relentless. SPX finally closed above the 5000 mark. It booked the fifth consecutive up week. All of the major stock indices are at new highs. RUT is the only one legging. The small caps have not been the leading indicator lately. RSI appears in overbought territory on the daily and weekly charts. The Fear and Greed index is in the extreme greed of 78. Of course, the market tends to go extreme in either direction. 

IBP Netliq recorded a new low since Jan 2023. It's down 13.3% from 226.9K to 196.7K. The realized P/L is $23,042. It's better than last week's $10,571. I followed my plan to adjust further out of DTE and bring them in. The collected cash is $7638. I was actively trading BF expansions. I traded 3 of the 5 days with the strong trend. Each BF day collected $2000 or more. The delta is down to -351. My bias and actions should be aligned with the trend. The leverage is up from 236 to 266.  The total positions are C6-0 and P9-0 after so many delta adjustments. There were a total of 57 trades for the week. This does not include these further OTD trades. The commission cost is $264. I was too busy to make a 1-1-2 trade this week.  

The two small accounts are deep ITM. IBP was easier to do inverted RR because it has a different margin requirement. TOS is at the maximum pain stage. It has only 25K b/p left. I won 2 out of 3 BF trades for $1K each. The BF for today was rolled to next Monday. The realized P/L is -$18,498. It's much higher than last week's -$3,943.  The collected cash is $4177. IBP and TOS got $4033 and $144 each. 

Lessons and Plan:    

1. I noticed that my fear of sudden drop is affecting my hedge decisions. I should align my delta hedge with daily market direction. Why not make the delta positive with the up trend?

2. I started to remember to take mid-day meditations. The Atomic Habit audiobook has helped me to make incremental changes for a better habit. 

3. My daily intentions are to Keep calm and stay disciplined.  

New Highs Again 2-2-24

 The bull trend is still going strong. SPX closed at another ATH of 4958. It is up for 4 consecutive weeks in January. The bulls are relentless. The FOMC and NFP were not rate-cut-friendly. The trend and seasonality sometimes drive the market more than economic data. Early Feb is usually a choppy period historically. Let's see if the pattern will play out. 

IB Netliq is down 2.7% from 212.4K to 206K. It closed at the low of 2024 after the wild swings with FOMC and NFP events. The realized P/L is $10,571. I didn't adjust the delta aggressively enough. The collected cash is $2,278. I won one BF expansion for $1.5K. I didn't trade BFE during the major event days. The delta is back down to -200. The leverage is up from 227 to 236. The vol is still below 15 in rangebound. The total positions are C6 -1 and P9 -0 after many delta adjustments. Added 50 DTE, Mar 22 XSP 1-1-2 for $226 this week. I am still learning it. I made 78 trades for the week. The commission cost is $398. 

The two small accounts are deeper ITM while the market is going higher. There is no relief in sight. The realized P/L is -$3943. The collected cash is $4007. IBP and TOS got $3731 and $276 each. I won a BFE and LCS in the IBP account. TOS has only 40K b/p left. I made fewer inverted RRs with this account.    

Lessons and Plan:

1. I continued to use the delta hedge strategy. I need to find a better way to hedge any 1% moves. Trade futures could be a way. Another way is to buy ATM directional options.  

2. I adjust positions in far DTE and roll them into short DTE. That leaves me room to adjust if the price direction changes. 

3. I added a mid-day meditation session to help me stay calm and alert. I only did it twice this week. I shall set my daily intentions as Keep calm and stay disciplined.  

4. I will study Gamma effects on 0 DTE. I shall look for a gamma graph for 0 DTE.