Counter Trend Rally 4-26-24

 SPX's sell-off stopped at 100 DMA last Friday. The counter-trend rally started this Monday. It was a volatile week with inflation data and some big tech ERs. The major indices popped with Tesla ER and dropped with Meta ER. GOOGLE and MSFT ERs induced a big rally on Friday. SPX closed up at 5100. It's right below the inflection points of 20, 50 DMA, Fib 50, 62%. Technically we are still in a down-trend. The 20 DMA crossed below 50 DMA is a bearish sign. However, the dip buyers are active. We may see bull-bear fighting for control next week. 

IBQ Netliq is up 21K, 1.2% from 159K to 181K. The realized P/L is -31825. The draw-down continued. The collected cash is only $1479. I was in the defensive mode. I had to spend hundreds of dollars to hedge for the yellow and red warnings. The delta is from +205 to -355 with these 1% up or down days. The leverage is down from 350 to 290. The total positions are C13 +3 and P10 -0. I got emotional during the Tesla ER selloff. I added more SCs. Then the next day's recovery slapped on my face. There were a total of 64 trades. The commission cost is $238. The May 3rd 112 position was threatened on Monday. I was planning to close partial or all of it. The counter-trend rally gave it a relief. 

The two small accounts were under pressure again with this rally. The realized P/L is -7271. The cash collected is only $960. IBP and TOS got merely $266 and $704 each. 

 Lessons and Plan:

1. There needed to be more cash collected for the week.  

2. Set rules for stop loss after a position rollout. I noticed that my emotions are high when I try to stop losses. It should be treated as a regular business activity.   

3. I didn't study the proactive, directional trade system for volatile times as planned last week.

4. I am more conscious about keeping calm. The mid-day medication helped to refocus. 

5. Working on recognizing my subconscious warnings. Following such intuition could help to be more disciplined.        

 

The 3rd Down Week 4-19-24

 The major indices closed down 3 consecutive weeks this year. The Israel and Iran conflict added fuel for the selloff this week. SPX was down every day of the week. It closed right at the 100 DMA. The daily RSI and MACD are showing extreme oversold. VIX is around 18. It seems more room to go down. All of the pops were sold in the last two days. 

IBQ Netliq set a new low of the year today. It's down 12.6% from 182K to 159K. The selling strategy doesn't work well when the netliq suffers in either rally or pullback. The key to keeping it safe is to stop loss and keep the size small. The realized P/L is -$19570. The collected cash is only $186. I had to spend hundreds of dollars to buy hedges. My attention was dragged into defending the existing positions. The delta is from 165 to +220. The leverage is up from 290 to 350 level. It's concerning when the leverage is above 300. The total positions are C 10-3 and P 10-1. The problem is that all of my SPs are above 5200.  There were 112 trades this week. Some of the trades dated back to January because of the OPEX. The commission cost is $425. I closed one 1-1-2 position and didn't trade the system this week due to the limited B/P. 

The two small accounts got some relief during this down week. The realized P/L is $125453. The recovery is less than last week's 16212. The total cash collected is $1666. IBP and TOS got $461 and $1205 each. The 2 SP in IBP are further ITM. They were forced to roll into higher strikes. One undisciplined act cost a big drawdown. One problem is that I wasn't able to raise the SC strikes. 

 Lessons and Plan:

1. There is no cash income for the 2nd week due to these added rollouts.  

2. Set rules for stop loss after a position rollout. I noticed that my emotions are high when I try to stop losses. It should be treated as a regular business activity.   

3. Study the proactive, directional trade system for volatile times.

4. I am more conscious about keeping calm. The mid-day medication helped to refocus. 

5. Working on recognizing my subconscious warnings. Following such intuition could help to be more disciplined.   

The Volatility Is Picking Up 4-12-24

 The major indices booked 2nd losing week. Vix is above 17 for the first time since last Oct. SPX finally failed the 20 DMA and tested its 50 DMA for the first time this year. Some said the selloff was the effect of capital gain tax selling. The tension between Israel and Iran may been another factor. The possibility of FED delay and reducing the rate cut is discussed too. The 50 DMA may hold as a strong support on the first test. The geopolitical and inflation data could be the wild cards. 

IBP Netliq fell 1% from 184K to 182K. It was up nicely to 201K till the -76 points, 1.5% selloff today. The realized P/L is -$8584. The portfolio is heavily dependent on the market conditions. I must think of a more proactive approach to counter the market dependence. The collected cash is only $260. My attention was dragged into defending the existing positions. I didn't trade any BF based on the rule of -1+1. The delta is from -65 to +165. The leverage stayed at the 290 level. The total positions are C 13+1 and P 11+1. I was often forced to increase my positions during volatile trend-changing times. There were yellow or red warnings every day because of the oversized positions. There were 44 trades this week. I noticed that I traded less than last year. Is it the calm-mind effects? The commission cost is $135. I didn't add any 1-1-2 trade this week. 

The 2 small accounts got a little relief as SPX pulled back. The realized P/L is $16212. The total cash collected is $393. IBP and TOS got $506 and $-113 each. IBP is still paying for the no-stop losses. There was no BF trade in IBP. I will use the downtime to reduce the width of the spreads to free some B/P. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. There is no cash income this week due to these added rollouts.  

2. Set rules for stop loss after a position rollout. 

3. Study the proactive, directional trade system for volatile times.

4. I am more conscious about keeping calm. The mid-day medication helped to refocus. 

5. Working on recognizing my subconscious warnings. 

   

Wild Rangebound 4-4-24

 SPX hit another ATH at 5265 on Monday, Apri 1st. It was a gap and crap rejection. It was a wild week with gaps up, down and mid-day reversal. The range is 118 points between 5265 to 5147. The week ended in red with no range break. It may be into a consolidation period? 

IBQ Netliq is down 15K, 9.25% from 199K to 184K. The realized P/L is -37811. The 64 points, -1.2% reversal on Thursday hurt my long positions badly. The collected cash is only $2360. The only one BFP is still underwater. There is an issue I didn't think it through. Where do I stop loss after rolling a BF position? Many of my underwater positions were accumulated after many of my unsuccessful rollouts. The delta is down to -65 from -325. The leverage is up slightly from 280 to 292. The total positions are C 12+4 and P 10+1. I overreacted to the selloff on Thursday. I will actively reduce the SC positions next week. There were 37 trades this week. That is 21 less than last week.  The commission cost is $153.6. One 1-1-2 XSP was added for 5-17. 

The two small accounts got a little relief from the down week. The realized P/L is 1463. The total cash collected is $1432. IBP and TOS got $2108 and $-676 each. TOS is still paying for the no-stop losses. There was one BFP trade in IBP. It's still underwater. That is the same stop-loss issue as with IBQ. I transferred another 10K from IBP to TOS in case of further B/P squeeze.   

Lessons and Plan: The issues are about the same. The question is if I made a better me every day?

1. I stayed calm or numb most of the time this week. The daily meditation helped. 

2. I must develop rules for where to stop loss for rolling positions. 

3.  Don't make a trade when I have doubt subconsciously.