The 2nd Down Week To The 50 DMA 7-26-24

 The big rotation from tech to old large and small cap continues this week. S&P and NQ are down while Dow and RUT are up for the week. SPX reclaimed the 50 DMA. It's below the 20 DMA and above the gap between 5400-5367. The market is still in the woods. MACD and RSI are both in the negative territory with slight upticks. However, the weeklies are pointing down toward the 20 WMA around 5300. The upcoming FOMC on Wednesday, July 31 will catalyze the next leg up or down.  

IBQ Netliq continues the drawdown with this pullback. It's down 5.5%, -4.4K from 124.3K to 119.9K, setting a new year's low. The realized P/L is +$7793 as some short calls rolled out. The cash collected is merely $762. Most of the directional trades didn't work out. The options' value is flat 484K, +4K. The delta is down from 166 to 107. The leverage is up nearly 5.5% from 518 to 548, the highest of the year again.  The total positions are C7 -1 and P8 -0. The yellow and red warnings are coming back. There were 84 trades for the week. I traded AMD options back and forth to void a possible assignment. A couple of MES directional trades worked out. The commission cost is $272. I added an 8/30, 36 DTE 1-1-2 trade before the gap down on 7/24. The drawdown is worse than last week. My plan didn't work as it heavily depended on the market movements.

The IBP account got mixed results with the pullback. The SCs had some recovers while the SPs deep ITM. The realized P/L is $22403 for the week, a positive number for a change. The cash collected is only $339. It's in a surviving mode. The 4 SPs are deep ITM as the 5 SCs. I entered these SPs right before the pullback. My impatience caused the latest double jeopardy. 

Lessons and Plan: Similar to last week's. 

1. Be objective. I tend to guess or wish the market to act in certain ways. Have different market scenarios and plans accordingly.   

2. Respect the signs and indicators. Do not act when in doubt.  

3. Recognize the emotions. I am currently in the down mode. Let the urges flow through.    

4. Look for other ideas to resolve the current drawdown. Have more hedge and directional positions.

5. The current rolling strategy is unsustainable. I will enforce the 3X stop rule for adjusted positions to contain the risk.  

    

The Worst Down Week Since April 7-19-24

 The rotations to the small caps and other assets continued for the week. S&P and NQ suffered a big loss.  There were signs that the market was going to pull back. I ignored the signs for fear of going higher. There was bad economic news. The earning session started well with the large banks. It was the law of gravity in play. 

IBQ Netliq is down quite big with this selloff. It's down 19.6K, -14% from 144K to 124K for the week. It sets a new low for the year. The portfolio is feeble for any large move in either direction. My emotions affected my positioning as well. The realized P/L is -$32968. The cash collected is -$1561. I took a stop loss for the only BFP I took this week. It's progress that I took a stop loss. It didn't feel bad at all. The directional trades had mixed results. It's a loss in total. The options' value is up 3% from -466K to 480K, +14K. The delta is up from  -46 to +166. The leverage is up nearly 17% from 432 to 518, the highest of the year. The total positions are C8 +3 and P8 -0. The yellow and red warnings are coming back. There were 84 trades for the Opex week. The commission cost is $299. I didn't add a 1-1-2 trade since the netliq is low. The drawdown is worsening this week. 

The IBP account was relieved by the pullback. I pulled up 150 points for three DITM SCs. Two of the three were for the old TOS positions. The SPs are ITM currently. The realized P/L is -$2395 for the week. The cash collected is $854. I traded 0DTE and took stops. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. Be objective. I tend to guess or wish the market to act in certain ways. Have different market scenarios and plans accordingly.   

2. Respect the signs and indicators. Do not act when in doubt.  

3. Recognize the emotions. Let the urges flow through.    

4. Look for other ideas to resolve the current drawdown.          

Volatility Without VIX 7-12-24

 SPX made 5 intra-day ATHs this week. It closed the weekly ATH above 5610. It booked 6 consecutive up weeks. The rally expanded to the large caps and small caps. The two inflation reports provided contradicting information. CPI was down 0.1% while PPI listed up 0.2%. The market reacted in opposite directions to the reports. It sold off on CPI and popped up with PPI. SPX was down and up 1% in the last two days. The VIX barely moved. There is no fear in the market right now. The bulls are in control. 

IBQ Netliq is down $3K, -2% from 147K to 144K. It made a weekly low of the year. The result indicated that I needed to be more aggressive in adjusting the deltas.  The realized P/L is $8396. The cash collected is only $2757 for the week. It included one BFP winner. I followed my plan to trade long calls. The results are positive. The options' value is up 2.2% from -454.7K to 466.1K, +11.4K. The delta is up from  -218 to -46. The leverage is up 4.7% from 412 to 432. It's an alarming level above 400. The total positions are C5 -1 and P8 -0. The small position numbers kept me out of the yellow and red warnings. There were a total of 41 trades for the week. It's an average of 8 trades per day. The commission cost is $156. I added one 42 DTE, 1-1-2 trade for August 23. 

The 2 small accounts are worsting with the new highs. I finally transferred most of the TOS assets to IBP after 4 attempts. It's part of my rescue plan. I now have the flexibility to adjust the positions.  The realized P/L is $-6959 for the week. There were no trades in TOS during the transfer period. The total cash is +117. I had to spend $800 to roll the two TOS positions to the end of the month. IBP and TOS had +$877 and $-760 each. 

Lessons and Plan: They are the same as last week except the stress level is higher. 

1. It's important to keep the size small. The small size will reduce the red and yellow warnings. 

2. Have patience in directional trades. I have different emotions when in such trades.  

3. Stay calm and disciplined. Make myself a little better every day.          

4. Adjust the positions more aggressively. Starting from the far-dated positions. 

5. Think ahead and have plans for different market conditions. 

6. Overcome the fear of being wrong.    

               

Flying Up & Away 7-5-24

This week, SPX and NQ rose to new highs while the Dow and RUT stayed in ranges. SPX broke above 5560 and headed to 5600. MACD just crossed up. RSI is over 75. The economic calendar has J. Power testify in Congress on Tuesday, CPI, and PPI on Thursday and Friday. It's going to be a busy week. The seasonality is favoring the bulls for the first two weeks of July. 

IBQ Netliq is down 11K, 7% from 163.5K to 147K after the 5K transfer to BOA. The realized P/L is $11993. The cash collected is only $1328 for the 4-day week. The little cash profit is mainly from the long calls. I followed my plan to trade longs. I didn't trade the BF setup this week considering the position sizes. The options' value is up 3.2% from -442K to -454.7K, +12.7K. The delta is down from 25 to -218. The leverage is up 12% from 362 to 412. It's an alarming level above 400. The total positions are C6-0 and P8 -1. There were a total of 36 trades for the week. It's an average of 9 trades per day. The commission cost is $135. I added one 43 DTE, 1-1-2 trade for August 16. 

The 2 small accounts are in the worst situation for the year with the new highs. I had to add 5K cash to each account for the Schwab to IBP transfer. The realized P/L is $-31225 for the week. The total lost cash is -1026. IBP and TOS lost $-357 and $-680 each. I spent money to roll IBP positions to save some b/p. The asset transfer from Schwab to IBP was rejected for the 3rd time due to the 2 week expiration requirement. I had to expand 6K for each spread and roll the positions to July 29. These positions are DITM and at risk of liquidation unless I add more funds. 

 Lessons and Plan: They are the same as last week except the stress level is higher. 

1. It's important to keep the size small. The small size will reduce the red and yellow warnings. 

2. Have patience in directional trades. I have different emotions when in such trades.  

3. Stay calm and disciplined. Make myself a little better every day.          

4. Learn this hard lesson of 2024. I will spend money to reduce my holdings and risk