Holding At The Top 9-27-24

 SPX and Dow made new highs while NQ and RTY struggled. The Bulls look like a bit tired. SPX couldn't close above 5750 with China's big stimulus package and better PCE data. The SPX's MACD turned red on 2nd day but RSI is still above 86.  The market may reset after the 3-quarter ending on Monday. VIX bounced at 50 DMA. Oct is a seasonally volatile month. I will remain open-minded. 

IBQ Netliq is flat at 90K. The realized P/L is -5097. The collected cash is $1849. The SPX long calls and MEX didn't work out this week. The opening pattern has changed from open drive to open pullback. The options' value increased by 4K from -537K to -542K. The delta went up 7% from -213 to -308. The leverage is up from 813 to 822. It's still very elevated. VIX is up from 16.1 to 19.3. The total positions are C7-0 and P6-1.  I must keep them at the current or lower levels. There were 56 trades for the week. The commission cost is $186. I didn't add any 1-1-2 due to the margin limit. 

The IBP situation is worsening. The rally relieved the SP side but pushed the SC DITM. I exited 2 more SPs but had to add 3 more due to SMA warning. I couldn't roll the SCS more than 2 days out. There are 5 SCs and 5 SPs into next week. Any bigger size move could further damage the netliq and B/P. I may have to take a stop-loss in the SP positions. The realized P/L is -$1789. The cash collected is -3322. I had to pay to roll the SCs without expanding the spreads too wide.

1. I made progress in adding Stop-loss orders to every new position. Luckily none of them were tested this week except the MES. MES tends to get stopped in the middle of the day. I am still working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading. It's like the phoenix flying out from the ashes. 

2. My stop-loss rules are A. Take 3X losses if the premiums are less than $1000; 

                                        B. Take 2.5X losses if the premiums are between $1000 to $1800;

                                        C. Take 2X losses if the premiums are above $1800.    

2. I realized the IBP doesn't have much room to expand if the rally continues. I need to figure out the numbers or percentage of the balance tolerance.    

3. I continue to work on the sense of accountability and self-discipline. It's a long process of changing my old habits at the subconscious level. 

4. I shall stay calm and focus on my emotions during the market hours.

    

Another ATH Since July 9-22-24

SPX and YM made new ATHs after FOMC's 0.5pts rate cut. Techs and small caps were legging behind. The 0.5 pts cut surprised the experts who expected a 0.25 pts reduction. The futures market staged a strong rally the night after the announcement. SPX gapped up over 5700 and ended the day up 95 pts, +1.7%. It closed the week holding above 5700. Next week is critical to see if the Bulls can keep it running. 

IBQ Netliq is down from 102K to 90.3K, -13%. It falls below the 100K mark again. The realized P/L is $48561 with a couple of SPs closed. The collected cash is -$2589. I bought a Dec 6000 call for $4.2K to hedge the uptrend. I closed the NVDA long for 250% gains the day before FOMC. The SPX long calls paid off on FOMC day. The rest of the longs didn't work out well. The options' value increased by 12K, 2.5% from -525K to -537K. The delta went down from -362 to -213. The leverage is up from 673 to 810. VIX is down from 16.8 to 16.1. The total positions are C7-2 and P7-2. I need to keep them at the current levels. There were 82 trades in the monthly Opex. Some of the trades went back to July of this year. The commission cost is $316. I didn't add any 1-1-2 due to the FOMC, and low netliqs this week. There is still 1 SC deep ITM. 

IBP is in a similar situation. The rally relieved the SP side but pushed the SC DITM. I was able to exit 2 more SPs after closing the old ones. There are 5 SCs and 4 SPs into next week. The realized P/L is -$21693. The cash collected is -2609. I had to pay to roll the SCs. The cost of failing to take stops early on. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. I made progress in adding Stop-loss orders to every new position. Luckily none of them were tested this week. I shall release them instead of waiting for the alerts next week. I am sure the stop-loss will happen when the market condition changes. I am still working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading. 

2. I continue to work on the sense of accountability and self-discipline. It's a long process of changing my old habits at the subconscious level. 

3. I shall stay calm and focus on my emotions during the market hours.  

        

The Week Of Reversal Before FOMC 9-14-24

 SPX started going up on Monday after last week's selloff below 100 DMA. It went up in five consecutive days. It was a dramatic reversal of 150 points swings from down 1% to up 1% on Wednesday. It's above 100, 50, and 20 DMAs now. The ATH booked in July is less than 50 points away. It may reach a new high or smackdown during the FOMC week. It will be a volatile week as the Fed is expected to cut the interest rate for the first time in 3 years.     

IBQ Netliq is up 19.7K from 82.3K to 102K, +19.3%. The realized P/L is -3773, a narrowed loss. The collected cash is -$2356. I had to buy many hedges to keep the red warning off. I took losses or missed the winners in the directional trades.  The options' value decreased by 9K from -534K to -525K. The delta went down from +236 to -362. The leverage is down from 868 to 673. VIX is down from 21 to 16.8. The total positions are C9 -0 and P9 -0. There were 67 trades with many hedge buyings. The commission cost is $237. IB increased the commission by 1-2 cents per contract this week. I didn't add any 1-1-2 this week. There is still 1 SC ITM. 

IBP is in a similar situation. The rally relieved the SP side but pushed the SC DITM. I was able to exit 3 SPs on Friday. I had room to add 1 SP for next Tuesday. The realized P/L is $23773. The cash collected is $452. The total positions are C5 +0 and P3 -2.  I am still in the survival mode.

Lessons and Plan:

1. I made stop-loss orders for my positions. But I pulled them out at the last minute during the big reversal on Wednesday. I reversed up twice. I still failed to take the stop. It's hard to change the bad habit. I made progress in setting up the stop-loss orders. I have been working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading.

2. I didn't follow the rule of -1+1 strictly. I was overconfident the side couldn't be breached. It actually blew through several resistant levels on Wednesday. I ended up adding 2 SCs. They cause over $17K under water now. 

3. I shall stay calm and less active during the big news events.  

   

A Selloff To Start September 9-8-24

 A big -119 pts, 2.1% selloff on Monday, 9-3 after SPX's 56pts, 1% rally to near ATH at the end of August. The pop and drop trapped both bulls and bears. I was one of them. SPX closed down more than 150 pts, 4+% this week. It cut through 50 DMA and right at 100 DMA. The seasonality didn't play out so far. 

IBQ Netliq suffered -10K, 10.7%, from 92K to 82K for the Labor Day shortened week. It gave back all the gains from last week. The realized P/L is -37605. A huge blow from the 4% selloff. The collected cash is $1295+$1673 interest. Most of my directional trades didn't work out either by the reversal or closed too early. The options' value increased by 4K from -534K to -538K. The delta went up from -245 to +236. The leverage is up from 786 to 868. VIX is up from 15 to 21. The total positions are C9 +1 and P9 +1. The added SP cost the thinner margin. There were 31 trades for the 4-day week. The commission cost is $129. The margin and delta didn't allow any addition of 1-1-2 trade. I was able to exit three of the 4 ITM SCs during the selloff.    

IBP is in a similar situation. The selloff pushed the SPs DITM. The realized P/L is $31212 for the week with some rolls for next week. The cash collected is $1750+980 interest. I traded Infra's calls but didn't make much profit. I will continue to try. The NVDA ER IC paid off on the short side. The total positions are C5 +0 and P5 +2. The SP is hurting now. There is no SC exit insight either. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. I made stop-loss orders for my positions. But I failed to release them on Monday based on my bias, not the rules. I have been working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading. It has become clear during my meditations that the underlying cause of my failure is the fear of losing. I fear of stop-losses. I fear losing before entering a directional trade. It's a subconscious behavior.  

2. I am reflecting on what has gone wrong in my trading for the last 10 months. The things I could control are the position sizes and stop losses. I couldn't be successful without either of them.  

3. Follow the rule of -1+1 strictly. 

5. Recognize my emotions. Fear and overconfidence are both dangers. Let the urges flow through. 

6. Be objective. My bias about the market direction often affects my decisions. Be flexible and watch the S/R levels hourly and daily. 

Consolidation Ready To Breakout? 9-1-24

 SPX and NQ consolidated in current ranges for the past 10 days, up 4th week.  YM, the large-cap already made new ATHs. SPX is less than a half percent from the new ATH while NQ is holding at 50 DMA. S&P, equal-weighted index made several new highs already. The rotation to other sectors continues as the Fed rate cut is near. The first part of September is bullish seasonally. 

IBQ Netliq stays below 100K. The position adjustments are still limited. The netliq is up 10K, 11% from 82K to 92K after I collected 20K with a 5875 DITM SP.  The realized P/L is -17815. The collected cash is $23532. It was from the forced rolling of DITM 5680 to 5780 SP. I may have to use the fund to adjust Delta and positions. The options' value increased by another 2.6% from -521K to -535K. The delta went down from -370 to -245. The leverage is down from 841 to 786. The collected 20K cash helped to make the delta and leverage down slightly. VIX is in the 15 range. The total positions are C8 +0 and P8 +0. There were 70 trades for the week. Many of the trades were short-term hedges. The commission cost is $208. I added one 1-1-2 for Oct. The 4 XSP SC are still ITM after rollout. Overall, not much improvement was made for the week. 

IBP is in a similar situation. The fourth-week rally overwrote the inverted RR. The realized P/L is $6688 for the week. The cash collected is $-560. I traded Infra's calls but didn't make profits. I will continue to try. The total positions are C5 +0 and P5 +2. There is no SC exit insight. 

Lessons and Plan:

1. I have been working on dealing with my fear of losing. I don't like the feeling of losing subconsciously. Losing is part of trading. It has become clear during my meditations that the underlying cause of my failure is the fear of losing. I fear of stop-losses. I fear losing before entering a directional trade. It's a subconscious behavior.  

2. I have been reflecting on what had gone wrong in my trading for the last 10 months. The things I could control are the position sizes and stop losses. I couldn't be successful without either of them. 

3. The word accountability popped up when I woke up one-night last week. I have not held myself accountable for my trading mistakes.  The first step should be to place a stop-loss order right after a position is filled. 

4. Follow the rule of -1+1 strictly. 

5. Recognize my emotions. Fear and overconfidence are both dangers. Let the urges flow through. 

6. Be objective. Watch the S/R levels hourly and daily.