Monday, April 15, 2013

T.J 4-15-13 Black Swan Day.

Monday, Monday, often a trend changing day. Gold has done a lot of damages. It has dropped over 100 points in the last two days. It hasn't happened in the last 30 years. I am caught in this big down turn with a sold gold put. I failed to put a stop order in last week while wanting to add one more. A total fault in my part.  I had an exit order for a lower price but failed to set a stop loss order. When gold price was crashing last Friday I was like a deer standing in a head light. I didn't think of hedging my position. Now I am waiting for a bounce to get out of this position.

I passed a wheat short from Daily Batch because it's against my BBD/M setup. It looks like a winner now. I am OK with it. It's more important that I follow my rules. It's good for me to overcame my fear of missing a trade.

On the other hand, I entered a ZM long trade because it was a BBD/M cross and PB set up. MACD is up 2nd day although it's counter trend. I totally forget there was a USDA export inspection report at noon today. It's only 5 minute after I entered the trade and the report came out somewhat bearish. So far it's about 3 ticks to hit my stop. Another mistake I get to pay for it. Update at 2:15pm closing: ZM got hit. the clue of the trade was it breached overnight low and never break the high. Also the news on China GDP lower was a major factor driving down most commodities. I followed my set up but it didn't work out.

I started reading a e book "The option Trader's Hedge Fund". It helps me to get a sense of selling options as a insurance business. Risk control is job one. I exit out two ES 1595 calls for a small profit on today's 20 point down move.

Wow, after Boston's bomb news, the market tanked again. All of my ES entries got filled. I forgot to take one at 1505 out. Now ES is at 1547 and only 40 some point away for 4 days. I may have to work through my next week's positions to a higher ground. Gold and ES have shown the risk of such large scale movement happens from time to time. One must always be prepared.

Working toward to have more right trading process than wrong ones. Always make controlling risk the priority!!!

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