T.J. 8-29-13 News Driven

Today's jobless claim came out better than expected and 2nd Q GDP was better as well. Market tested yesterday's low before open and pushed back all the way to Tuesday's gap open. I was totally fooled by the opening action thinking the good news could be bad for the taper watchers. I shorted ES in sim all the way up and had 3 full stop outs. With the hypnoses I entered a SPY 161 put for next week at open. It was also for hedging my call. My call was taken out on the way up and my put is now under water.

This week's pattern for ES has been morning drive up and pull back in the afternoon except the gap down in Sunday night. This may be an reflection of lack of confidence by market participants. The uncertain factors overhang and technical levels contain the market in an range.

It is very frustrating that my orders in both calls and puts didn't get filled. They were near but didn't reach my price targets. I am getting better at not chasing trade now I guess. I would rather be out of a position than in a position where I can't get out. I may not have a good trade next week if nothing comes to me tomorrow. It's OK consider the potential risk of war on Syria.

T.J. 8-28-13 Taking a Break

ES opened to test overnight low with 3 ticks breach and bounced back. It has been grinding up and broke overnight high and PP. This may be consider Fib 50 RT bounce I guess. It's still a inside day so far. I think it's taking a break from yesterday's big thrust. It also need to attract more buyers to build enough inventory before testing Fib 62 unless it break into yesterday's gap zone and close it. ES is trading between 100 and 50 SMA. It will be more clear on where today close at. It could be a waiting mode closing since people are waiting to see if the US decides to bomb Syria.

I designed a spread to take my yesterday's SPY call out when it reaches 50 SMA and buy a put at that level as well. None of them get filled.

I am still waiting for a new low test to enter my sell puts for next week. The Syria situation is like a 2nd shoe waiting to drop.

T.J 8-27-13 A Tons of Worries

News of Syria's chemical warfare drove the markets down overnight. There was a 17 point gap for ES at open. On top of the Syria situation, the end of QE 3 and fed debit ceiling are putting pressures on the market. I expected ES would have about 22 point range this am. It ended up reaching 26 and closed at Fib 50 RT area. There has not been a big bounce at this Fib 50 level. The next one will be Fib 62 RT at 1610 area with a weekly trend line. I need to plan my ES potion sells of next two weeks accordingly. Try to stay as far OTM as possible. I didn't have any fills for next two weeks except a small scalp of 1590 for this week.

My IWM put option reached target of 150% and recovered yesterday's early exit. I missed SPY's pull back today and entered a call at Fib 50 RT. I may exit this out tomorrow and wait for 62% level to try again. I need to exit MSFT at a bounce and re-evaluate it since it's falling back into the gap zone. The GE call is hopeless now. I need to stop blindly follow Joe's option twitters. Be selective and use my judgment.

T.J. 8-26-13

Monday is trend setting? ES moved up to near Fib 62 RT and BBD/M then started dropping at 3pm. There was a news about Syria' chemical weapon investigation. I find that often news come in at critical levels and time.

Grains had a huge up day on Pro Farmer's field tour report and weather concerns. I didn't know the report was released after hour last Friday. I thought it was release already. Obviously my wheat short was stopped out on gap up this AM. For the lack of accurate information I didn't reverse my position to long. It was a 25 point up thrust. Soybean had over 60 point move. I exited half of my put in corn and added a call sell above two resistance levels. It looks like the move is not over yet. Maybe I should have waited a day or two for exhaustion.

T.J. 8-23-13 Pay Day

It's Chaching Friday again. I get 1615 and 1605,1600 scalp position expiring worthless with 100% profit. It wasn't an easy week for the put options. With last week's gap down the down trend continued early this week. I had to exit out my 1625 position with a small profit. It looked venerable before Wednesday. This one was entered 2 weeks ago.

I entered a short for wheat since it matched my setup. Timing wasn't very good since it's a weekend. But have to follow my rules. While corn didn't come to my short entry level Pro Farm's field tour report may give corn a bearish tone next week since the production estimate is high. I increased my option price in hope to get out my bullish option of 450. This has been dragged for too long. Hesitating to cut losses is still my weakness need to work on.

I was so lucky that my MSFT 33 option was canceled by the exchange due to NSDX 's shut down yesterday. My order was filled this morning for a 230% return instead of yesterday's 25%.

T.J. 8-22-13 Resisting Temptations

As I guessed it yesterday that my wheat long was in danger because of the weak low and BB bands of 4h and 1 hr are narrow. I wanted to set up a reversal order last night so bad. Instead I resisted the attempt of reversing to a short again because of these narrow band pattern doesn't give a lot room to go either way. I want to see the market resolve itself rather than take a chance. I accept the loss and not let me revenge temptation to take control. I am glad I did it and so far the wheat is still in a choppy mode. I applied my discipline. That's the key. 

ES pushed higher overnight and added more upside after this morning's higher than expected jobless claim. As of this writing at noon it's up 15 points near yesterday's high. It's a pleasant surprise. All of my this week's puts positions are in good shape now. I was able to exit my next week's 1610 with a small profit too. I resisted my habit of moving the target around for a few more bucks. Good thing that I recognized such emotions and start to change such habit.  

T.J. 8-21-13 Fed, Fed!

Markets were waiting for Fed minute release today. ES was in a small range until the report at 2pm. It tested a new low and pushed up to the upper trend line and near yesterday's high. As most of us thought this was the turning point for the market to turn around the selling began. AS FT said earlier markets often come to revisit the crime sense. ES closed exactly to its after report low. It looks the correction is not over yet. ES is in between its 50 and 100 SMA now and not too far from Fib 50 RT which is at 1629 alone with 100 SMA. This level may provide a temporary support.

I am glad I exit half of my next week's 1610 position and entered one at 1580 to replace it. I need to take my risk off further since today's closing may bring more down side movement. Fed's report has a lot more impact on the market in addition to the technical pattern. It's a bear flag pattern now.

My seed oil and wheat both got stopped out. One was B/E and wheat had a pop and drop which put my reversal order in danger as well. Wheat is still above BBD/M and I will have to stick to my rules. But it's in the lower end of CHVA and the down trend is still intact. Be prepared for two stops in both direction. That's part of trading.

T.J. 8-20-13 Relief Rally

ES reached a new low o/n and bounced off of daily trend line. It tried to test yesterday's low after open. Buyers stepped in and pushed it up for 13 points. It never had any meaningful pb until it reached yesterday's high and closed at o/n high. I kept shorting it at several levels but lost 150 in SIM.

I followed my plan and exited out my 1625 puts with a small profit. I don't think the down turn is over yet. ES is closed at 50 sma and Fib 38.2% after today's relief rally. A Fib 50% retrace from June's low is at 1631 and 61.8% is at 1613. Market may push up a little more then push back to the two key Fib levels. A extreme level of Fib 78.4 is at 1590ish. I anticipate this down turn may last into September or October.

 Grains start falling today. Corn and Seed oil both touched their upper trend line yesterday. Corn didn't hit my exit target and I am under water again. I need to re access my plan if corn breaks yesterday's low.

T.J. 8-19-13 Don't Mess w/ Your Plan

ES tested CLVA between 1656 and 1651 in the morning. I thought it was going up further to 1660 test last Friday's high since it broke O/N high first. I thought ES would be able hold O/N low based on FT's stats that ES would break only one side of its o/n range 85% of the time. However it took the 25% of time and broke o/n low to a new low of 1642.

My plan was exit out my corn put sell position and ES 1625  put for this week. When the corn put price came to my target of 5.50 I started messing the order between 5.5 to 5.25. It was a very small amount but my emotions were high, fear of missing and greed of making few more bucks. I ended up moving it to 5.375 between bid and offer. It closed at 4.75. Another one was ES 1625 put. My plan was exit at 2.75 to take risk off since there was less than 30 point to strike. I moved my order to 2.55 and reduced the size to half. I ended up missed the fill which hit 2.70 and the position is under water again. FT has addressed many time that professional traders don't alter their orders if they plan didn't call for. I have a bad habit of altering my target based on my emotions. Two of my weak areas are 1, not honoring my stop, 2, messing with targets. Am I a pro and do I want to be a pro? Yes.

T.J. 8-16-13 Choppy Friday

It's monthly/weekly option expiration Friday. Market generally moves in choppy mode. I had to take a 2x stop loss of my 1650 puts and scale out my 1645 with smaller profit. Luckily it was still a profitable week. Most of my weekly options for stock and SPY are lost. It was bad timing and wrong bias.

ES hit its 50 ma today and temperately held. The reaction was not very strong. My guess is that the pb is not over yet. Fib 50 and 62.8% levels are below. My next week's position is under water now. I didn't get any fill for ladder up today.

Grains retreated today. I will wait for next week to see if I can scale out my corn puts even with a loss. Corn's down trend is still intact. Arlan is predicting corn to find support at 420.

T.J. 8-15-13 Bam!

Big drop happened overnight cutting through 1680 and 1671 support levels and opened gap down this AM. I expected a follow through drop last night but didn't anticipated that two major support levels were cut overnight leaving many traders holding their bags I guess. Most of my ES put positions were under water immediately. I was able to exit most of my 1645 position with a small profit since this position had a much better entry price. Although it was a force trade last week as I remembered. Lesson: I often have to pay a dear price for a forced or boredom trade especially with emotions such as fear of missing, etc.

I added two small FOTM puts at 1635 and 1615 in preparing for take a loss of my 1650 scalp. That one is in danger of being assigned since ES is less than 10 point away from it. My stop out rules really need to be enforced. 

T.J. 8-14-13 Cracking below?

ES pushed up to yesterday's VAH and crossed overnight high then dropped quickly. My hypotheses for today was up based on overnight vp stayed in higher portion of yesterday's VP and today's opening crossed overnight high. I tried to go long 4 times but most of them got stopped out in sim. My scalp of put sell at 1650 filled at noon for 55. ES finally cracked yesterday's low by closing. I was wishing washing for the entry with up bias until very late. Tomorrow is critical for the indexes. If the ES closes below 1671 then the gap below 61 will be in danger. If the gap zone get cracked by tomorrow or Friday I may have to take stops for this week's put options. I would buy SPY put tomorrow for some protection.

Most of my SPY and MSFT options end up losing money due to the choppy actions in the last few days. My long bias was crashed today and the SPY put had too much time decay.

T.J. 8-13-13

It's almost another Doji day. Bulls and bears are fighting in mid of the B band for over a week now. I am relatively safe for ES to go either way this week. I may add scalps of call or put for this week depending on the movement.

Grains couldn't hold yesterday's boost. Corn closed at yesterday's low. It is teaching me another lesson for my lack of discipline.

T.J. 8-12-13 Grain Report

The long waited USDA grain report came out today. It lowered stocks and production estimate for soy bean and corn. Soybean's price jumped over 40 cents and corn up 11C. I entered a corn put sell order in the heat of the movement. I made the direction of the trade right by waiting for the price break previous day's high and pull back. I also made mistakes in fear of missing the bus. I didn't give a far enough OTM for an entry to be safe. Instead I just simply added to my 650 position which is only about 10 point away. 2nd, I didn't use option's chart to get a good entry price. I left about $100 room there. I need to force myself stay away from my trade station during market's big events.

ES traded in a range bound today. It touched my lower trend line overnight and bounced to the upper trend line by end of the session. It was a methodical move in a slightly down trend. ES still under BBD/M. I may have to get of my 1645 position if ES can cross up the mid line.  It has 4 days and 40 points left. I wouldn't consider it very safe at this point.

T.J. 8-9-13 Friday is pay day

Another 100% profitable ES options week. ES is having hard time to push up and staying at 1681 to 1696 range for this week. It may break another balanced area next week. I have established positions 3 weeks out. It's a bit far out for the third week. I need to be more patient. I had a little fear of missing the boat since yesterday was a V shape bounce. Today it ended up closing lower.

On the other hand, grains continue to move lower. I am glad I exited my corn long position last night based on BB4 and BB1 squeeze pattern. I am still holding corn option position. Failed to follow my trading rules. I didn't form a scale out exit plan earlier. I am under deep water now and may go down further if Monday's USDA report turn out to be bearish. Rules, Rules! Without following my rules I can't be a professional.

T.J. 8-8-13 Pattern

Indexes tend to move in patterns during a several day period. In the last 3 days ES had V shape movements. I had 3 fills for ES put sales. The scalp of 1665 for tomorrow wasn't well planed for not recognizing the pattern. My entry was 55 but the price moved to 90 then fall back.

My play of TUMI earning was a disaster. TUMI reported a big miss and the price fall 12% this morning. Luckily I only had one call at 130 and it looks like a total loss. I missed MSFT's call entry yesterday and this AM at open. I chased it when it doubled from the low while not thinking about risk first. My underline thinking and emotion were revenge. Wanting to use it to make up for my SPY call/put spread. I have one week left to make both positions right.

T.J. 8-7-13 V Shape

ES dropped 12 points after open. At 1682 I was expecting it to have couple more points down to 1680 and set up several orders for next two weeks. However ES reversed at 1682 and made a V shape push and never retest the low. Most of my orders were only 10C away. It was very frustrating. Maybe I pushed a bit too edgy and wanting a perfect fill.

Grains have been sold on every bounce. Corn broke over night high after open and only got pushed to near breaking new low. Wheat had a new low this AM and recovered some late. USDA's progress report is expected to be a major event for direction of the grains.

T.J. 8-2-13 Lucky Day

The unemployment report came out was below the expectation. Luckily I was able to exit out my ES 1710 position with a small profit. It was a wrong trade driven by greed and lack of forward looking. I was only thinking about free margin and quick scalp. I was under water 3X of my cost yesterday.

Grains continue going down. It's in an oversold state now. I will have to take a stop for my corn position if there is no bounce next week.

July was a good month with 100% win rate in ES options and some profitable stock and options trades. It was over $4K profit.

T.J. 8-6-13

ES was down 10 points today as there was no any major news. It looks like it's ready to explore downward since 1700 was reached. It may need a pull back to build more inventory for another up leg or to play terrible August. I didn't have any fill today in ES because my targeted price not met. I will see how the price action will provide a clue for the market direction.

I tried to enter a type of spread in SPY. I had call filled but no put yet.

T.J. 8-5-13 None Event

ES traded inside of last Friday's range. No any trade in this front.
Grains continue their 3rd week decline. I am still in the corn put. Risk control is my weak part. Hold and hope may cost me dearly. FT71 shared some stories of big traders crash and burn due to failure of control their risks.

T.J. 8-1-13 Follow Through

Market reached new high today after this morning's better than expected jobless claim report. S$P touched 1703 and closed above 1700. Tomorrow morning's unemployment report is expected to provide more volatility. It's likely to push the market higher.

I didn't follow my Fed day plan completely yesterday. I was supposedly not to enter any ES option trade until there is a clear direction. I forgot there was a jobless claim today only thought the unemployment report on Friday. based on the assumption I was thinking I had enough distance for a 1710 call sale. I am setting an exit price for this short at 50. I may have to take assignment if the market pops after the report at 8:30. It's only 8 points away tonight.