August was a great month for my ES and commodity options sells. I had an average of $762 per week for 4.5 weeks. My win rate was 91%. I am getting better at discipline and executions.
Market gaped up last Sunday night on the news of delaying attacking Syria. Monday was a half day for futures and the market kept a upward posture. This morning's open was an up thrust to the upper down trend line and the last CLVN before the end of the high volume area. It started selling at near of 62% Fib RT and weekly PP. I had a plan of selling options at this Fib level but it was front run by about one point. I didn't execute my SPY put well when I came back from a meeting with June's college adviser after 10am. At that time, ES was pushing down but I didn't think it would be able to breach the o/n low since it already broken o/n high. The odds of break both side is only 25% according to FT's study. I entered a sell order of $25 to exit my $80 cost position. I was supposed to add a put position at Fib 62 RT but I didn't even put an order in. The 162.0 SPY reached $50 high today as ES dropped to the low of 18 points. No plan is the plan to fail.
Microsoft announced that it would buy Nokia's cell phone business pre open and MSFT dropped 9% after open. My in the bag of 33 call is now under water once again. I don't have any clear rules for options at this point. I may have to reduce individual stock options until I have clear winning strategy.
I sold two positions of ES options for this and next week. I am nearing fulls size now. Get to watch and manage my risk now. It looks like attacking Syria is just matter of time since the leaders of Republican Congress are supporting such action. They scheduled to vote no later than next Monday. I need to sell some calls on price pop. My current call position is going to expire on this coming Friday.
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