Chaching Friday 3-28-14

Another weird random Friday. ES had an open drive in the first hour of opening. Tested the upper end of the LVA again. It started to sell off around 2pm and filled yesterday's gap. I added couple cars for week 2 and 3 of April. My margin was tied up in grains so I only could enter 1-2 cars at time. I had only 3 cars, $500 expired this week but have 8 for Monday, the month end which had better premiums. Over all indices are in an range bound with a little bearish tones. Let's see what Monday will bring.

Wheat finally gave up about 15 points. I plan to scale out my positions on Monday before and during the report at noon with help of the weekend time decay.

Still Holding 3-27-14

Indexes tested lower this morning. ES closed a old gap of 3-15 to the tick. It couldn't push any lower but was not able to move back to yesterday's range either. It closed in a Doji form again. In the bigger picture ES is still filling in this CLVA of 1833-1863. We will wait to see which direction it will break out.

Wheat and corn moved up more than I expected after USDA's bullish export report. I added one contract of $39.5 to 680 call on pull back but it went to $45. I expect some pull back tomorrow when people positioning for Monday's planting intention report. I plan to use today's average up to reduce my call positions before the report.

CL finally crossed the $100 mark and closed above $101. I expect it to go up further and will wait to sell calls at higher prices.

Bear Engulfing 3-26-14

From yesterday and overnight price actions it looked like ES was ready to explore a new LVA above 1870. FT's morning Trader Bite has the same hypotheses. I thought it was a sure thing once we crossed overnight high. Then it got pushed back before 1870. Sell off intensified in the afternoon after yesterday's low was breached. I made ES put sales for 2nd week of April, Sold put spreads for IWM in both personal and IRA accounts, sold VIX 22 calls as well. As usual I entered most of them too early on such sell off days. So far the sell off is still contained in the current balance area. It looks filling in the LVA. We will see if it will hold in the next couple of days. I need to be ready to adjust, roll or take stops for my spreads and bull puts.

In grain complex, wheat and corn pulled back some today. Soybeans went up another 10 points. I missed an add on for my 680 Calls but didn't chase while patiently waiting for a pull back. Wheat and corn are still within their balance areas. I guess traders are waiting for tomorrow's weekly export report. They may pop again if the numbers come out strong. I need to wait for a clear break out one way or another before take actions.

CL is continuing its up trend despite today's inventory report was higher than expected. I shall void to get in too early. I will watch for key Fib and S/R levels.

None Event 3-25-14

ES stayed in the LVA as I mentioned yesterday. I wasn't eager to get more positions as it was a kind of inside day. I sold a 1775 put in my personal account. I also tried to sell some VIX but didn't get fill.

Grains took a breath today. I will try to get an rescue order in for my under water wheat 680 to average before USDA 3-31 planting intention report. I expect the pros would be likely to clear deck up and down before the report and position themselves lower. I would exit my 680 position with a higher cost if I could average up in the next 2 days.

CL is still in an rang bound of 98-100. It tried to break $100 for the last three days w/o successes. Let's see what tomorrow's inventory report would bring.

Grains Marching On 3-24-14

Grains popped overnight and pulled back before open. It was a strong export weekly inspection report from USDA. All three major grains took out last Friday's high. Wheat condition in the US is worsening which helped wheat's price further. Wheat price was the highest increased, up 20pts. I may have to prepare to roll my ITM positions further out when it comes to near expiration.

Equity indices went down today. ES tested Fed day's low and buyers stepped in. It looks like some damage was done. It closed below last Friday's range and stays in a LVA. I will watch to see if this range would hold for next couple days.

Chaching Friday 3-21-14

I like option expiration Fridays most of time when my positions are closed and I can really count the money. I have to remember " Don't count your money too early" in options. Always watch out for risks. I had my best week so far with all the monthly expiration. I am starting to form a weekly+monthly options selling system.

I rolled my last 680 wheat call to 720 May in the last hour of grains trading. Wheat dropped 9 points but didn't fill my timed order. After I rolled it then wheat trading actively before closing. I didn't want to take the chance. I was patient and followed my plan today which I am happy about it.

I got filled couple ES bull puts in the afternoon's sell off. I thought this quad witch Friday was going to be a trend day since it was up until 3pm. It hasn't failed to be wild so far. Got to keep it in mind.

Options Rollover 3-20-14

I studied how to rollover options in IB last night. I rolled over part of my wheat 680 to next month today. It would save me being assigned for tomorrow and give me a chance to work it out. It's a tool I will keep in my tool box. I wish I had known it much earlier. It would have saved me $8000-9000 last September. We only know what we know. My soybean 1430 calls got filled on my target for risk off overnight. I am in good shape with grains for now. I have only one wheat 680 call left for rollover if my exit target is not filled by 10:30 tomorrow. The rest of this week's expiration should be all profitable.

ES recovered from yesterday's chart damage on good economic news. I was busy dealing with grains this morning. By afternoon, I tried to get couple puts in but ES already went back to yesterday's high. Tomorrow is triple witch Friday. I may have chances to get in. This kind of Friday usually is wild so be careful. We may be in a topping process.

FOMC 3-1914

My worst hypothesis happened in wheat this morning. Wheat tested over night low after open which gave me some hope of a pull back or range bound today. After I came back from breakfast I saw a big pop in wheat crossed the $7 psychological barrier. It reached last Sept's high of $7.15 and may target last April high of $7.30. My $680 calls are totally under water now. I didn't add any car to it as I don't think it has reached the top of the new balance area. I missed a chance to scale one out this morning in my plan of last night. I moved the price by $1 on the fly. The bad habit cost me again. I am planning to roll over these cars to next month before noon Friday. This is new to me. I am facing a possibility of been accessed by others although it's not very likely. Tomorrow's export report will further push grains around. I may have to roll over my 1730 soybeans which is ATM now.

I followed my rules of staying out ES on FOMC for at least one hour. I was able to get in couple positions for the month end and the following week. I may have to stay out of it longer next time.

Oh, Grains! 3-18-14

Grains turned around pushing back from they get go on dust storm, poor rating for wheat and strong demand on soybean. May corn is up 7 1/4, soybean up 26.5 and wheat up 18. Wheat is up to challenging last week's high. It closed at the day's high and appeared ready to pop. I sold one 680 for $15.5 at Fib 78 RT in an attempt of rescuing my position on Friday's expiration. I added another 19.25 at closing in hope of time decay for the next 3 days. It looks like it may not work if it pop through $7.00. I have over traded and built a large position of $680 (5 cars). I was thinking to wait to tomorrow to see if wheat would pop or retreat. I may have to start to scale out with losses and add back if wheat pops up in the next two days. It may get to a new balanced area. I also sold a 7.30 for a scalp. Soybean closed at 14.18 and also threat my 1430 calls. It's only a stone throw away now.

Equities continued their upward positioning for FOMC tomorrow. I didn't get in any position for ES and would like to wait after FOMC to get a clear directions. I am fairly positioned for this week in ES front. I will work on next two weeks after tomorrow.

CL had a strong up day and back above $99. Tomorrow's inventory report will give a better sense of the market. The seasonality is up from spring to summer. My 106 bear call and 95 bull put expired today giving me another 100% profits.

Rallying On Reality

To the market, anticipating bad things happening is often more scary than it actually happens. Crimea's referendum passed overwhelmingly in favor of Russia on Sunday. Market gaped up this morning like feeling glad the referendum is behind us now. All of my ES positions looks safe now. I may reduce some before Wednesday's Fed Announcement in case something dramatically changes and get ready for next round of entries. I didn't have any fill in ES today. My last Friday's VIX bear calls were timely and lucky. It produced 90% return over the weekend. Most likely I will get 100% profit by Wednesday morning if nothing drastically happens.

Grain complex retreated some but still in a wait to see mode. Apparently Ukraine is still shipping corn and wheat at its normal pace. Wheat was down 10 ps, corn was down 5 ps. I am prepared to scale out on my wheat position tomorrow as I am slightly OTM on average and don't want to hold all cars to expiration in case a pop put me back ITM. Soybean is still holding its bear flag. I guess it's depending on South America's harvesting and exporting data.

CL tested last week's low but held. It may be testing lows before summer seasonal rally. I will wait on Wednesday's inventory report before doing anything.

Quote of the Day: Don't count your money too soon. It's not yours until the position is closed. - Me.

Friday Again 3-14-14

Market followed yesterday's down trend and hourly bear flag pattern. It did have an responsive buying at open but didn't even get to 50% RT as I expected. It held at lower part of prior day until later afternoon's sell off. ES closed at low of the day with concerns of Crimea's event this Sunday.

I added couple leg up positions in ES. I exited S-5's 1780 put on this expiration day in order to free margin. I then sold 1760 put for next week for $325 around noon but too early since the volatility got higher in the afternoon. These positions I sold around 1800 early in the week are further under water. One error was that I didn't take contract roll over into consideration which is -7 points for June contract. Also my mental state was fear of missing when sell off kept getting rejected early this week. I didn't wait for a good pull back to enter. I need to pay attention to my subconscious which often remind me a rational approach when I am in an emotional stage. Early this week my subconscious suggested me to wait for a pull back to sell puts but my emotion of fear of missing overwrote the rations.

Wheat just won't drop with concerns of Ukraine. It pulled back to retest yesterday's range and closed above yesterday's open and day before yesterday's high. It's a bite bullish depends on geopolitical news and weather early next week. Corn and soybeans are in consolidation so as crude oil.

I also entered VIS bear calls at $22, added to $23 for a scalp of next Tuesday expiration. I am relatively safe unless a major crash  occurs on Monday. I have to monitor my risks on the road of Spring Break of kids' school.

Gap Filled in a Tricky Way 3-13-14

Market moved up overnight and opened in a small gap up. We anticipated an up day based on yesterday and overnight's action. When ES pulled back to close the gap and even further down to yesterday's low I thought that was it. But the sell off continued after lunch and closed March 3rd's buying gap which tested half yesterday. It was an over 20 point range day. Apparently market was spooked by the increased tension between the West and Russia, China's growth concerns. I entered 3 positions in ES this AM and were too early. It's very common for me to enter positions early for lack of anticipating such sell offs. Short of patience and  fear of missing are major areas need my attention.

Grains had similar pattern as equities: gaped overnight and falling after open. I made a good entry on wheat as it fall into yesterday's range and pulled back to test yesterday's high again. I added a $300 call (=$1.5k premium) to my 680 position. Now I am in a much better average to scale out my under water position. I didn't a similar entry for soybean. As it pulled back to fill last night's gap down my sell call of next month got filled for hedging my put sales.

Euro followed ES with overnight up and RTH drop. I got spooked by last night's pop and entered an exit order for one of my this week's 139.5 which was crossed overnight. I followed my rule and no regret for taking 50% profit instead of 100%.

I expect some kind of reactive buying tomorrow morning baring no major news overnight around the world. I will use the pull back (yesterday's low at 1854) to exit my 1825 puts scalp to release some margin for better opportunity. I am not out of woods for wheat yet. I will reduce my bear calls if it continues pushing down tomorrow.

Half Gap Fill 3-12-14

US market went down over night on Chinese financial concerns with using copper as collateral and hedging which may cause default of debt as copper prices continue going down. I was kind of expecting the market would keep working on yesterday's down turn and finish the gap at 1845-42. For ES it would also mean moving back into last composite balance area. I guess the big boys are not ready to let it go back down yet. Half way to the gap fill, buyers stepped in and took it back to the current balance area.

Grains continue to diverge,  Soybean dropped 25 points overnight which was unusual. Two of my risk of orders got filled unexpectedly. I made an error of not adjusting before shutting down at night. I need to get into a habit of reviewing any open orders before turning in. Corn held up with only couple points advance. The USDA report helped corn since it reduced corn's inventory level. Wheat continued to march forward with 18 points. Ukraine's unsettled situation kept buyers coming. I sold both calls and puts to wheat. My 680 is ITM now. Wheat is at Fib 23 target from the bottom and Fib 78RT from top on weekly. I need to wait a little more to see how far it will go up before adding anything to it. Corn is above Fib 62% RT and 50SMA wkly. It may be in play now since it appears have limited upside.

CL moved down overnight and with higher inventory report it dropped almost 2% by closing. Now I need to pay attention to downside risk. Commodities tend to move a lot further and long in trending conditions. Get to be more patience and watch for levels.

A Rejection of New High for Now 3-11-14

It appears that ES displayed a pattern of rejecting a new high for now. The fight of crossing overnight high and low was unusual this morning. ES first breached O/N low and buyers stepped in and took it crossed last two days' high and at the end of CHVA. Then it got pushed down cutting through last two days lows. Those were the interment time frame traders' behave according to FT. It was a 19 point range day. A HS pattern seams formed on daily chart. There is a gap of 1860 to 1844 below. We may see it closed before next week's Fed day.

I had 3 fills (3x1x1) of ES for next 3 weeks. I made an error of buying a put of this week at 1830 instead of selling it. It cost me $53 to close it at the end of day. Get to remember to check every aspects of an order before release it especially after I changed my quote form lay out the other day.

Soybean and corn moved in my favor today. Wheat tested a new high closed at yesterday's high on Ukraine's planting progress concerns. I added positions to corn and wheat today. CL continued to drop. My bear calls of April look safer now.

USDA's WASDE 3-10-14

The much anticipated WASDE report came out at 12 pm. Interesingly Grain TV released several twittees with USDA's number a hour earlier which looked similar to the official numbers later released. Did they know something in advance or just had a close guess? The initial reaction of grain coplex was not strong. Then, soybean started to lead down. The sell off accelarated toward the closing. Soybean was down 39 points alone with corn and wheat down high single digites. None of my orders prepared for extream levels of up and down got filled. However, all of my under water positions got quite releif. I will manage to reduce my call positions with reasonable profit and keep my hedging balanced.

In the equity index front ES tested below last Friday's low but buyers steped in mid morning and pushed it back to Friday's range. I didn't have any fill with ES today. I still expect a test below 1845 unless last Friday's high is challenged soon. I will be patiently waiting to get in late March's positions.

CL continues moving lower. Considering its seasonal trend I will try to sell puts at high 80s when it comes down further.

Chaching Friday 3-7-14

This morning's job report was better than expected, 175k vs 150k. Market shoot up pre-open. For whatever the reason good news is bad news again. Market started to moving down after opening. It tested the bottom of the flag of bull. ES ended up a doji day.

The real trouble is in grain complex. ZS took out Feb 27's high overnight and closed at high of the day again. It looks like pros expect a very bullish WSDE report for ZS. Corn and wheat held up fairly too. I refrained myself not to enter any position in grain today. I will deal with any consequences after Monday's USDA report.

CL pull back to Fib 50% today. I wanted to add a bear call at 106 or 105 but didn't since it's a Friday and the seasonal is up. I will re access it next week.

It's Chaching Friday. All of my ES are winners and made me $1.1K. Next two weeks are critical for my commodity options. May be I started with commodities too heavy and run into the geopolitical event which made commodities more volatile.

Grains - The New Raging Bull

Grains are relentless due to the Ukraine's situation and strong export report this morning from USDA. People are concerned if Ukraine could not maintain its corn and wheat export that would put the market in short supplies. US soybean export booking and shipment are stronger than last year. Even South American's harvesting season could not put a cap on US sales. Some people predict that US may have to import soybeans in order to keep up with its own market later this year. It's into the fifth week gains. RSI and MACD are in strong over bought conditions both weekly and daily. Of cause it doesn't mean it will not go up further. Tonight soybean crossed that big shooting star of 1446 rejection. Corn and wheat are going higher also. I will have to manage my Call sale positions and leg up further. I am glad I sold a soybean put instead of fighting the bulls today. The big guys may sell some of their positions to be ready for Monday's USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates release.

Equities had modest gains today. ES reached a new high of 1881 and closed at 1878 which still is a new high. I am glad I exited my 1885 yesterday for a small gain. I didn't enter any trade in ES but closed my 1700 and 1745 for 5C each and release some margin. Tomorrow's job report should cause some volatility.
Euro had a big jump today after ECB held its rate unchanged. I added one to my 1395 at 1X and one at 1340. My first try of Euro hasn't worked so far. It's getting into a new balance area. This is a slow mover but has weekly contract which I like.

Building a Base 3-5-14

It was a none event day for equities market. ES had a 6.5 point range. It's only a half of its norm. No major news come from Ukraine front. ES stayed on the upper part of yesterday. It appears it's building energy for another push or waiting for tomorrow's Fed beige book and Friday's job report.

CL had a 2.3% drop to previous balance area of $102-100 after it's inventory report. I finally caught a break. I exit half of my $105 calls and added a May put sale of $91 as a hedge. The seasonal trend is long going to spring and summer. The inventory report came out higher than expected. The sell off was slow but persistent.  

Grains are holding up well despite China cancelled 200K ton of Soybeans. Soybean sold off initially but later recovered with new export information. Soybean is over bought in technical terms. Its RSIs are at 80s bother daily and weekly. I still have to prepare for another pop. Corn and wheat are holding up as well.

I need to work on allocating funds for each contract type. I have been just reacting to the market and trying to rescue my positions. I ignored allocation and diversification with disciplines.  

The Putin Reversal 3-4-14

I woke up this morning and saw a complete reversal of the equity market. Apparently Putin held a new conference and stated "there was no need to use force in Ukraine yet". European markets got a big relief and futures popped too. I had to exit my SPY put for a 77% hit for holding overnight. Luckily I had only one car due to a key in error.

Crude oil had a 1.7%  drop which provide some relief for me.  Surprisingly corn and wheat held up and closed at their daily highs. I added sale calls on both in anticipating of a near term drop on over bought condition. Corn's RSI daily reading is at 85 and just hit Fib 62 weekly. Wheat's RSI is at 75 daily and Fib 50 RT weekly. It may have some room to go. Ukraine is top five exporter of corn and wheat in the world. Maybe Putin's "YET" still has a grab for the grain market. Soybean had an inside day with a narrowing wedge. It may break up or down depending on news and weather from Brazil, I guess. Funds bought a lot more contracts in the last two days according to Grain TV. A boredom trade I did a week ago against the trend has got me into a deeper hole now. I had a hitch as I was entering the order but didn't discipline myself to follow the trend.

Geopolitical Effects 3-3-14

The weekend was full of news from Ukraine and Russia. Apparently Putin is getting authorized to use force in Ukraine. As expected Futures had big moves on Sunday night.  All index futures went down and most commodities futures gaped up.

It was like a blood bath on Monday. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia appeared inevitable. Most sectors moved to opposite of my positions. ES was down more than 25 points from last Friday's closing. Grains and crude oil had 2% or more pop. I was expecting a multi-day volatile movement. I mainly tried to hedge my positions in grains. I bought a SPY put before closing. I wanted to catch another down day with possible overnight event from Europe.

I spent most of the night away from market watching and trying to fix my Iphone's screen. Without a proper tool I couldn't complete the job.

Chaching Friday & EOM 2-28-14

ES closed on a new high of 1860.75 today. Early afternoon there was a news about Ukraine which cause the market quickly dropped to 1746. I was able to get couple position filled for 2 and 3 weeks out. Then buyers stepped in pushing it back to close higher. It was an ideal situation for put sellers.

On the other hand I wasn't that lucky with soybean. After the big shooting star sell off grains regained some ground. A pull back was expected but the closing was very strong. They all closed near season highs. It make me wonder if it's just a pull back or resuming trend. We will see the evidence early next week. I added a position of 1430 calls for $18.75 today in an effort to rescue a early entry. But it's less than 2% from the strike now since no drop followed this pull back. I may have to take a stop on it.

CL is still holding up in consolidation mode. The unstable situation in Ukraine is a big risk factor now. I made a entry mistake on my CL hedge put by selecting a wrong strike price of 95 instead of 93.

This month I did better than January to close near $4K profit. It was the first 2 weeks' volatile movement gave me more chances to enter positions plus closed couple of CL positions. My IB cash position turned positive for the first time. I means I have repaid all my trading loans. I am expanding the premium selling program which I think it suite my style for now. The key is still risk management and self discipline. If I am patience and follow my rules I should be consistently making profit.