Tuesday, March 4, 2014

The Putin Reversal 3-4-14

I woke up this morning and saw a complete reversal of the equity market. Apparently Putin held a new conference and stated "there was no need to use force in Ukraine yet". European markets got a big relief and futures popped too. I had to exit my SPY put for a 77% hit for holding overnight. Luckily I had only one car due to a key in error.

Crude oil had a 1.7%  drop which provide some relief for me.  Surprisingly corn and wheat held up and closed at their daily highs. I added sale calls on both in anticipating of a near term drop on over bought condition. Corn's RSI daily reading is at 85 and just hit Fib 62 weekly. Wheat's RSI is at 75 daily and Fib 50 RT weekly. It may have some room to go. Ukraine is top five exporter of corn and wheat in the world. Maybe Putin's "YET" still has a grab for the grain market. Soybean had an inside day with a narrowing wedge. It may break up or down depending on news and weather from Brazil, I guess. Funds bought a lot more contracts in the last two days according to Grain TV. A boredom trade I did a week ago against the trend has got me into a deeper hole now. I had a hitch as I was entering the order but didn't discipline myself to follow the trend.

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