It's the fifth consecutive day of new high for ES. It feels like the late 2013 again. ES kept pushing up despite talks of too high and over due correction. I had one leg up of 1945 bear call for June 14. I wasn't patience enough yesterday and early this week to wait for Fib 23 target.
Grains still couldn't get much energy to even hold a bounce. Wheat and corn finished 3rd downing week. I had to add one 2.5X of 6.2 to my wheat bull put as wheat was at Fib 62 weekly according to my plan.
Soybean is holding up well due to strong demand. I don't know how long it could hold since summer's futures contract prices are much lower than current one and there may be more imports from Brazier.
Energies are still in range but leaning down slightly. I tried to add a put in CL to hedge my margin but didn't get filled. Will try again next week.
Friday, May 30, 2014
Up and Away 5-29-14
ES reached a new high again. It got to high of 1918. My 1922-25 target is still up there. I will sell bear calls if it get there tomorrow. I had only one fill of 1955 for June 20.
Wheat tried to bounce this morning but failed. It went down a few points again. I don't even remember when did wheat had a green day. I will add to my positions when it reaches Fib 62 around 620. I sold one bull put of 410, August today. It's below January low. With all favorable conditions so far this low may not hold.
NG inventory was higher than expected. It had a large swing after the report. I was able to add one each in both side for July. Hopefully NG will stay in the range for the next 3 weeks. The trend is down orientated.
Wheat tried to bounce this morning but failed. It went down a few points again. I don't even remember when did wheat had a green day. I will add to my positions when it reaches Fib 62 around 620. I sold one bull put of 410, August today. It's below January low. With all favorable conditions so far this low may not hold.
NG inventory was higher than expected. It had a large swing after the report. I was able to add one each in both side for July. Hopefully NG will stay in the range for the next 3 weeks. The trend is down orientated.
Thursday, May 29, 2014
Grinding Up 5-28-14
ES tested yesterday's range early today and grind up to 1913 before a small sell off at closing. It looks like the market is holding up well. Tomorrow's GDP and unemployment report may give it a better direction. I had no fill on any of my bear calls.
Grains had another down day after USDA crop progress report yesterday afternoon. But grains staged a later push up to day's highs. It looks like the sellers are taking a break. Wheat is filling in LVA of 632 - 648. I had a bear call of 755 for August filled. I will add more bear calls on wheat and corn when they bounce. I was waiting for wheat to test Fib 62 weekly to add on bull puts but it has not reached it yet.
CL had a 1.3% pull back today. I am waiting for tomorrow's CL and NG inventory report to get a better sense of direction before adding anything.
I have been patience today and deserve a pad on my back. Making progress in changing mind set and habit.
Grains had another down day after USDA crop progress report yesterday afternoon. But grains staged a later push up to day's highs. It looks like the sellers are taking a break. Wheat is filling in LVA of 632 - 648. I had a bear call of 755 for August filled. I will add more bear calls on wheat and corn when they bounce. I was waiting for wheat to test Fib 62 weekly to add on bull puts but it has not reached it yet.
CL had a 1.3% pull back today. I am waiting for tomorrow's CL and NG inventory report to get a better sense of direction before adding anything.
I have been patience today and deserve a pad on my back. Making progress in changing mind set and habit.
Wednesday, May 28, 2014
ES New High 5-27-14
ES made a new high of 1909 after this Memorial weekend. So much for "sell in May and go away". The Fib 23.7 target is projected at 1922. I tried couple of bear calls for two weeks out but no fill. My sense is that it will go up again to establish a new balance area. I don't need to rush. I should wait it reach 1920-1925 area to sell calls. Another possibility is the new high get another sell off as we have seen this year. It it happens again I will sell puts which I like better. I tried credit spreads in SPY, RUT and IWM bear calls but none of them got filled. I will try again if the market get up again tomorrow. My plan is to make legged in Iron Condo.
Grains came down today. Wheat is near BBD/low and Fib 62.8% of 428. My position of $425 and 420 are in dangers now. I am waiting for it to get 428-425 to add. Corn looks bearish too, but I have most of bear calls. Unlike wheat I recognized corn's down trend and formed a right strategy. I didn't expect wheat came down that much after the drought and bad weather pushed the price up so much. I was caught on its up thrust and now on the down fall too. I need to watch my risk and remember grains' trending much longer. I closed a wheat long and a corn long but no sale today. I am OK with it.
I had no trade in energy today. NG popped 1.5% but didn't fill my order. CL dropped less than 1% but no fill either. I am dealing with longer holding time in commodities so I need to be more patience and have a longer term view.
Grains came down today. Wheat is near BBD/low and Fib 62.8% of 428. My position of $425 and 420 are in dangers now. I am waiting for it to get 428-425 to add. Corn looks bearish too, but I have most of bear calls. Unlike wheat I recognized corn's down trend and formed a right strategy. I didn't expect wheat came down that much after the drought and bad weather pushed the price up so much. I was caught on its up thrust and now on the down fall too. I need to watch my risk and remember grains' trending much longer. I closed a wheat long and a corn long but no sale today. I am OK with it.
I had no trade in energy today. NG popped 1.5% but didn't fill my order. CL dropped less than 1% but no fill either. I am dealing with longer holding time in commodities so I need to be more patience and have a longer term view.
Saturday, May 24, 2014
Week in Review May 19-23
The purposes of weekly review are:
1. Review any major market development and current conditions;
2. Exam my trading activities in terms of discipline, rule following and state of mind;
3. Set goals of improving discipline, patience and skill development.
My biggest mistake this week was didn't exit the wheat $660 scalp I entered the week before after I realized it was a undisciplined, poorly analyzed trade. The position was showing profit after I added a 2X cost average up in the first few days of the week. I became greedy and wanted more profit or even let it expire worthless. My rule is clear on correcting onerousness orders which is exit as soon as possible. But I didn't do it despite my writing in my daily journals. The result is one exit on B/E and two assignment at a loss.
My 2nd mistake is related to the first one but goes to the end of how to exit with risk control. I didn't have a plan for worst case scenario on the expiration day. I expected wheat would bounce and planed to sell on the bounce. I didn't have a plan for what if it won't bounce. The result was I was chasing to get filled in the last few min before closing.
Next week, my goals are:
1. Identify commodity trends and trade with the trend.
2. Be patience. watch for key levels and wait for the price come to the levels before trading it.
3. Correct any erroneous trade immediately.
1. Review any major market development and current conditions;
2. Exam my trading activities in terms of discipline, rule following and state of mind;
3. Set goals of improving discipline, patience and skill development.
My biggest mistake this week was didn't exit the wheat $660 scalp I entered the week before after I realized it was a undisciplined, poorly analyzed trade. The position was showing profit after I added a 2X cost average up in the first few days of the week. I became greedy and wanted more profit or even let it expire worthless. My rule is clear on correcting onerousness orders which is exit as soon as possible. But I didn't do it despite my writing in my daily journals. The result is one exit on B/E and two assignment at a loss.
My 2nd mistake is related to the first one but goes to the end of how to exit with risk control. I didn't have a plan for worst case scenario on the expiration day. I expected wheat would bounce and planed to sell on the bounce. I didn't have a plan for what if it won't bounce. The result was I was chasing to get filled in the last few min before closing.
Next week, my goals are:
1. Identify commodity trends and trade with the trend.
2. Be patience. watch for key levels and wait for the price come to the levels before trading it.
3. Correct any erroneous trade immediately.
Friday, May 23, 2014
Be Prepared For Either Way 5-23-14
ES pushed up to retest May 13's new high of 1898 by a couple of ticks today. It's Friday before Memorial Weekend. I didn't expect it would have such power to make a new high. Not been prepared!
I had another lesson in wheat today. I only sold one wheat $660 put 10 min before closing. I was stubbornly waiting for a pop before 12, then 1, then it came at 2 pm. But it was too small to hit my 2nd target. I was busy chasing the prices in the last few min. I was not prepared for another sell off thinking it was Friday before a long weekend and the sellers would not be so aggressive. Lesson learned: A mistake needs to be corrected as soon as possible especially when there is still a chance to break even or even get a small profit. Instead, I dragged it for too long. Letting greedy take over discipline and rules. I was not prepared to deal with the situation against my expectation or hypotheses.
I did it right with NG today. I exited $4.30 put when there is a possibility of going down to against me despite there are only two days left to expiration next week.
I had another lesson in wheat today. I only sold one wheat $660 put 10 min before closing. I was stubbornly waiting for a pop before 12, then 1, then it came at 2 pm. But it was too small to hit my 2nd target. I was busy chasing the prices in the last few min. I was not prepared for another sell off thinking it was Friday before a long weekend and the sellers would not be so aggressive. Lesson learned: A mistake needs to be corrected as soon as possible especially when there is still a chance to break even or even get a small profit. Instead, I dragged it for too long. Letting greedy take over discipline and rules. I was not prepared to deal with the situation against my expectation or hypotheses.
I did it right with NG today. I exited $4.30 put when there is a possibility of going down to against me despite there are only two days left to expiration next week.
Moving Up 5-22-14
ES continued moving up in its up channel. I am not sure if it will break up to a new high since tomorrow is Friday and followed with Memorial long weekend. I didn't have any fill in ES. I am waiting for a extreme push up or drop down to sell calls or puts.
Wheat dropped to a new low and touched CHVN of $654. It closed around $660 and put my $660 under water again. I will have to exit out or roll over since tomorrow is expiration day. I was out to airport to pick up June so I missed the actions between 11AM to 1:30PM. Soybean had a follow through push up. I had to add one to 1620 at 2X. It's trading around 1516 and I have 100 point and one month to work with. Corn stays in a small range and I don't have a good reason to trade it for now.
NG's inventory report came out higher than expected. It dropped 2.5% today and closed around 4.38. I will try to get out my 4.3 put tomorrow if the bear flag doesn't break down before the weekend. No actions in CL today. It's in an up trend channel.
Wheat dropped to a new low and touched CHVN of $654. It closed around $660 and put my $660 under water again. I will have to exit out or roll over since tomorrow is expiration day. I was out to airport to pick up June so I missed the actions between 11AM to 1:30PM. Soybean had a follow through push up. I had to add one to 1620 at 2X. It's trading around 1516 and I have 100 point and one month to work with. Corn stays in a small range and I don't have a good reason to trade it for now.
NG's inventory report came out higher than expected. It dropped 2.5% today and closed around 4.38. I will try to get out my 4.3 put tomorrow if the bear flag doesn't break down before the weekend. No actions in CL today. It's in an up trend channel.
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Range Bonded 5-21-14
ES had a small gap up day today. However, it's still in the neckline. It could break out or get knock on the head again. It's in a range bound of HVA. VIX is still heading lower to $13. My VIX bear calls expired today in both accounts with only one positions in each.
CL had an unexpected lower inventory and pushed price up crossing $104 and settled back $103.9. I didn't get my fill of $93, August. I will try again on any pull back. NG is still working in the LVA of $4.55 to 4.35. I will get out my last 4.3 put since it won't expire with 4 more days until 5-28.
In the grain complex. wheat and corn were done but Soybean had a 37 points, 2.5% up day due to the high demand of soy meal. SB July finally closed above $15 again. My wheat scalp exit order didn't get filled since it was another down day. I will try again tomorrow to take risk off even though there are only two days left. If wheat break down below 660 tomorrow I will roll over it to next month. I made a mistake on the entry of scalp for a little greedy and I am paying for it now. Get to follow my rules.
Recording Mile Stones: I just reached balance of $25K in S-5 account from mid of $22K and realized 55K net profit for trading options selling strategy in one year. It has been a journey of ups and downs. I have learned a lot about trading and myself for what it's worth.
CL had an unexpected lower inventory and pushed price up crossing $104 and settled back $103.9. I didn't get my fill of $93, August. I will try again on any pull back. NG is still working in the LVA of $4.55 to 4.35. I will get out my last 4.3 put since it won't expire with 4 more days until 5-28.
In the grain complex. wheat and corn were done but Soybean had a 37 points, 2.5% up day due to the high demand of soy meal. SB July finally closed above $15 again. My wheat scalp exit order didn't get filled since it was another down day. I will try again tomorrow to take risk off even though there are only two days left. If wheat break down below 660 tomorrow I will roll over it to next month. I made a mistake on the entry of scalp for a little greedy and I am paying for it now. Get to follow my rules.
Recording Mile Stones: I just reached balance of $25K in S-5 account from mid of $22K and realized 55K net profit for trading options selling strategy in one year. It has been a journey of ups and downs. I have learned a lot about trading and myself for what it's worth.
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
Head and Shoulders 5-20-14
ES tried to push up but got knocked on its head today. It looks like the right shoulder continues to form for now. It is working in the HVA with current balance area. I had two fills in ES for the first 2 weeks of June. They are singles. I may add more if we have a follow up sell off tomorrow.
Grains rallied in morning season and faded in the afternoon. Wheat is back threatening my 660 position. It's holding at Fib 38.2% for weekly and may come to test 200 SMA at 650. I will try to take the risk off even through only 3 days left. Overall, I feel that grains are in bearish sentiment but waiting for new crop development. It could go either way with news about planting and weather.
CL and NG played in my favor today. CL came down and NG went up. I may try to sell 1-2 puts after CL inventory report tomorrow. I will wait to play NG after Thursday's report.
Grains rallied in morning season and faded in the afternoon. Wheat is back threatening my 660 position. It's holding at Fib 38.2% for weekly and may come to test 200 SMA at 650. I will try to take the risk off even through only 3 days left. Overall, I feel that grains are in bearish sentiment but waiting for new crop development. It could go either way with news about planting and weather.
CL and NG played in my favor today. CL came down and NG went up. I may try to sell 1-2 puts after CL inventory report tomorrow. I will wait to play NG after Thursday's report.
Monday, May 19, 2014
Flying Away 5-19-14
Equity indices moved up right after open on this Monday morning. But ES looked like forming a right shoulder on daily. I will wait to see if ES gets knock on its head again in the next day or two. If it breaks up then we may see a new high and next balance area.
Energies were up too. I got a relief from NG since it went up 1.5%. CL pushed up to 102.5-103 range. It's filling up this LVA. I tried to bracket a put in July contract but didn't get fill. I may wait for Wednesday after inventory report.
Grains tested low and turned around in later season. Wheat tested 663 which was near my 660 position. It backed off on condition report. I may be saved with 20 points away and only 4 days to go. Grains are in a hurry up and wait stage. It's all depending on planting progress and weather. Beware of a big move in later Spring on weather conditions. I may want to hold on trading sizes.
Energies were up too. I got a relief from NG since it went up 1.5%. CL pushed up to 102.5-103 range. It's filling up this LVA. I tried to bracket a put in July contract but didn't get fill. I may wait for Wednesday after inventory report.
Grains tested low and turned around in later season. Wheat tested 663 which was near my 660 position. It backed off on condition report. I may be saved with 20 points away and only 4 days to go. Grains are in a hurry up and wait stage. It's all depending on planting progress and weather. Beware of a big move in later Spring on weather conditions. I may want to hold on trading sizes.
Friday, May 16, 2014
A Half Friday 5-16-14
Quote of the Day: "It's how you deal with failure that determines how you achieve success." - David Feherty
I had to leave at lunch to drive my girls shopping for their trip and birthday party. Indices bounced modestly today. ES pulled back to BBM. It formed 2nd doji on weekly chart. It's not clear which way it will go next week. I will keep open mind.
Grains continued drifting down. I had to add to my wheat puts of 660 and 625 for this month and next month at 2X plus according to my rules. I may have to deal with risk control for next week expiring wheat. I have no positions left in corn for this month and one in ZS to be closed with 98% profit at least on Monday. Be ready to take a loss or two as part of business.
NG took a pull back of 1.25%. I still have greedy and fear affecting my decisions. I moved my risk off order much lower when I saw the price jumped 3%. I noticed that I was relaxing my rules again. Next week I must take half of my positions off.
It's a good week without a loser. I didn't have many ES as I am shifting more capitals to commodities which usually give higher return. Four CL position contributed over $1000, 50% of this week's profit.
I had to leave at lunch to drive my girls shopping for their trip and birthday party. Indices bounced modestly today. ES pulled back to BBM. It formed 2nd doji on weekly chart. It's not clear which way it will go next week. I will keep open mind.
Grains continued drifting down. I had to add to my wheat puts of 660 and 625 for this month and next month at 2X plus according to my rules. I may have to deal with risk control for next week expiring wheat. I have no positions left in corn for this month and one in ZS to be closed with 98% profit at least on Monday. Be ready to take a loss or two as part of business.
NG took a pull back of 1.25%. I still have greedy and fear affecting my decisions. I moved my risk off order much lower when I saw the price jumped 3%. I noticed that I was relaxing my rules again. Next week I must take half of my positions off.
It's a good week without a loser. I didn't have many ES as I am shifting more capitals to commodities which usually give higher return. Four CL position contributed over $1000, 50% of this week's profit.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Sell on New High 5-15-14
It has been a pattern of sell on new highs for ES this year. ES got sold off on new highs in Jan, March and April. We had a 22 point range sell off today from yesterday's low. It's the day 2 of selling and closed above 50SMA. ES is back to HVA and inside of prior balance area. There are some damages done to the chart. If the pattern holds true this time then there are more down side to come. I had 3 filled orders for ES today. I left some room for add on if the the sell off continues. I have learn to look at days of the movement not just hourly chart.
I got a big relief from NG after its inventory report. It had a 3% jump although the inventory level is higher than expected. I simply don't know enough this market and need to learn more about it. It may still come down to retest 4.30 low and filling in the lower part (4.30-4.50 of the HVA. CL is holding its up trend well. I will try bull put when there is a pull back.
Grains turned bearish today. I am surprised that wheat lost another 12 pts. All of my bull puts are somewhat under water now. Wheat is sitting at Fib 78RT and below 50 SMA.
I entered my first Iron Condo of 2nd leg in RUT today. RUT touched a new low and bounced back inside of yesterday. Let's see if it will come back down again or that rejection is a sign of bottom. The down trend is still in place.
I got a big relief from NG after its inventory report. It had a 3% jump although the inventory level is higher than expected. I simply don't know enough this market and need to learn more about it. It may still come down to retest 4.30 low and filling in the lower part (4.30-4.50 of the HVA. CL is holding its up trend well. I will try bull put when there is a pull back.
Grains turned bearish today. I am surprised that wheat lost another 12 pts. All of my bull puts are somewhat under water now. Wheat is sitting at Fib 78RT and below 50 SMA.
I entered my first Iron Condo of 2nd leg in RUT today. RUT touched a new low and bounced back inside of yesterday. Let's see if it will come back down again or that rejection is a sign of bottom. The down trend is still in place.
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Topped Again? 5-14-14
ES couldn't get back to yesterday's range from the get go. It was in a small range (less than 6pts) until 2:30 pm and the selling began. It touched 1882 and still held at LVA and Monday's range. It appears a HS forming in hourly chart. A bull flag is still in place on daily and weekly. I would start to sell some puts if there is a follow up selling tomorrow.
NG didn't provide a bounce today as I hoped for. It traded in yesterday's range. I was able to resist the urge to add more cars. I would wait after tomorrow's inventory report. CL had 0.9M inventory instead of -4M expected. The price is holding at Fib 62RT to the upside. The uptrend is in place. I had a $108 filled after hour yesterday. I will add $93 bull put on a pull back.
Wheat dropped near 20pts to $688. My scalp of $660 looks shaky now. I really forced this trade yesterday. It really shouldn't be traded as a scalp since there are almost 2 weeks to go. I didn't follow my rule. Corn went down 5pts too. I am OK with the assessment of bearish outlook. I would sell more bear calls on any decent pull back. But keep in mind there is a gap above 685. It's weather and news driven the grain market now. Soybean is holding its uptrend well although futures contract prices are lower for summer and fall months.
NG didn't provide a bounce today as I hoped for. It traded in yesterday's range. I was able to resist the urge to add more cars. I would wait after tomorrow's inventory report. CL had 0.9M inventory instead of -4M expected. The price is holding at Fib 62RT to the upside. The uptrend is in place. I had a $108 filled after hour yesterday. I will add $93 bull put on a pull back.
Wheat dropped near 20pts to $688. My scalp of $660 looks shaky now. I really forced this trade yesterday. It really shouldn't be traded as a scalp since there are almost 2 weeks to go. I didn't follow my rule. Corn went down 5pts too. I am OK with the assessment of bearish outlook. I would sell more bear calls on any decent pull back. But keep in mind there is a gap above 685. It's weather and news driven the grain market now. Soybean is holding its uptrend well although futures contract prices are lower for summer and fall months.
NG Train Wracking? 5-13-14
ES made a new high of 1898 and SPX crossed that big 1900 Intra-day but closed below it. ES is still holding the bull flag pattern at closing. There have not been any meaningful pull back for me to sell any puts for the last several days. I closed out my positions this week to free out of my margins.
Wheat and corn are both down today but traded in yesterday's range. Soybean popped 18pts on news of China's high price of soybean auction. I got into couple of trades in wheat and corn from opposite directions today. Nothing major though.
My big problem is in NG now. It continued to move downward for the 2nd week. I am near 2X loss limit in both 4.3 and 3.25 positions. I don't know enough about this product and relied on the seasonal trend too much. This is a volatile product and trending very strong. I knew I needed to paper trade and watch it for awhile before trading in real money. It's the habit that I tend to close my eyes and jump in. FT mentioned it as a self-discipline issue. I will leg up and prepare to roll over. Also need to keep it in mind that Thursday's inventory report. Let's see if we will get a bounce before the report.
Wheat and corn are both down today but traded in yesterday's range. Soybean popped 18pts on news of China's high price of soybean auction. I got into couple of trades in wheat and corn from opposite directions today. Nothing major though.
My big problem is in NG now. It continued to move downward for the 2nd week. I am near 2X loss limit in both 4.3 and 3.25 positions. I don't know enough about this product and relied on the seasonal trend too much. This is a volatile product and trending very strong. I knew I needed to paper trade and watch it for awhile before trading in real money. It's the habit that I tend to close my eyes and jump in. FT mentioned it as a self-discipline issue. I will leg up and prepare to roll over. Also need to keep it in mind that Thursday's inventory report. Let's see if we will get a bounce before the report.
Monday, May 12, 2014
Reaching New High? 5-12-14
Indices had an open drive starting a new week. ES reached the all time high of 1895 set in early April. It didn't get sold off so far. Buyers appear in control and 1900 is in sight. I didn't have any fill for ES today. I wanted a bear call of 1935 for end of May but didn't get it. I sold a RUT bear call spread of 1180/1190 for May 29. Thinking is as a legging in of an Iron Condo which I read the ebook again this weekend.
Grains were all lower today. Corn and SB appear bearish after USDA report. Wheat is still holding up due to poor condition of winter crop. I will focus on opposite of the trends on pull backs.
NG had another 2% fall from last night to RTH closing. I added to $4.3 at 2X and 4.25 at 1X. My last defense of 4.2 entry was hit too. It looks like I am dragged in to the mud of this down turn. I will need to scale out or prepare to roll out. I expect NG may have a bounce before this Thursday's inventory report. I will try to scale out some of my positions if it happens.
Grains were all lower today. Corn and SB appear bearish after USDA report. Wheat is still holding up due to poor condition of winter crop. I will focus on opposite of the trends on pull backs.
NG had another 2% fall from last night to RTH closing. I added to $4.3 at 2X and 4.25 at 1X. My last defense of 4.2 entry was hit too. It looks like I am dragged in to the mud of this down turn. I will need to scale out or prepare to roll out. I expect NG may have a bounce before this Thursday's inventory report. I will try to scale out some of my positions if it happens.
Saturday, May 10, 2014
Weekly Review May 5-9
It was a relatively quiet week. ES had been in a range bound in the hindsight. It was volatile during the development of the range. Highs were sold decisively and lows were rejected forcefully as well. I made an operational mistake by clicking buy instead of sell button on ES 1760. I didn't immediately correct it and was thinking to use it as a hedge as the market was pushing down. I waited and hoped until it lost 90% of its value. The loss was $128 but the way I handled it was not acceptable. It must be correct immediately when a mistake happens. If I need to hedge or use whatever different strategy I must redo it.
Grains were in a larger scale of range bound too. It's in a planting and weather news driven phrase. I entered some positions in both sides. They are decaying so far in the range. Let's see if new trends would emerge next week after Friday's USDA Production report.
In the energy front, NG made a b/o on daily to the down side. I will manage my bull puts of 4.3 and 4.25. CL was in $100 range and I didn't have any new positions.
I entered couple of RUT spread with higher risk. I need to be more patient and keep learning the market and price behaving pattern. VIX has been working better for me and I can increase the size of it.
Grains were in a larger scale of range bound too. It's in a planting and weather news driven phrase. I entered some positions in both sides. They are decaying so far in the range. Let's see if new trends would emerge next week after Friday's USDA Production report.
In the energy front, NG made a b/o on daily to the down side. I will manage my bull puts of 4.3 and 4.25. CL was in $100 range and I didn't have any new positions.
I entered couple of RUT spread with higher risk. I need to be more patient and keep learning the market and price behaving pattern. VIX has been working better for me and I can increase the size of it.
Friday, May 9, 2014
Choppy & Chaching Friday 5-9-14
The same push up, push down pattern continued for indices today. Higher lows is still in place. I have three positions expired for this week. It's a light week.
USDA's production and inventory report didn't produce any major trend change for grain complex. Wheat and corn were down. SB was up 20 points. I only got a position in ZS and ZW.
NG had another 1% drop but held at Fib 50% RT. I tried to add to my puts but no fill. I may try again at Fib 62RT.
I have been distracted by my skin conditions for the last few days. I am waiting for a report to see if it was caused by another condition. Whatever is the result I will have to deal with it. Life is precious and too short. We all have to face the end sooner or later. Of course the later is better.
USDA's production and inventory report didn't produce any major trend change for grain complex. Wheat and corn were down. SB was up 20 points. I only got a position in ZS and ZW.
NG had another 1% drop but held at Fib 50% RT. I tried to add to my puts but no fill. I may try again at Fib 62RT.
I have been distracted by my skin conditions for the last few days. I am waiting for a report to see if it was caused by another condition. Whatever is the result I will have to deal with it. Life is precious and too short. We all have to face the end sooner or later. Of course the later is better.
Thursday, May 8, 2014
Reversal? 5-8-14
ES tested overnight low and pushed up to challenge April's high. Then sellers stepped in at 1885 around 2pm. It's the pattern of April and May: Highs got sold hard and lows got bought hard too. The bigger picture is still bullish and the RHS from March to now is still in place. But things could change anytime. I had a fill of 1770 for May 30th. I may enter closer dated positions if the market pull back more.
I entered two RUT credit spread of 1060/50 two weeks out and 1070/60 for a week in my personal account. RUT just crossed its 200 SMA but couldn't hold at closing. It's near a double bottom. If it can't hold then I may be in trouble. Be prepared to rollover or add further out.
NG had a 3%+ drop after a larger than expected inventory report. I took 4.3 bull puts and got crushed. NG Seasonal is up trend but need to watch this 2 weeks contract risk.
I held my urge to trade grains today. Waiting for tomorrow's USDA report for any change or reset trend. SB was up 20 points on export no to China. Wheat and corn held their up postures. Don't trade the first hour of the report.
I entered two RUT credit spread of 1060/50 two weeks out and 1070/60 for a week in my personal account. RUT just crossed its 200 SMA but couldn't hold at closing. It's near a double bottom. If it can't hold then I may be in trouble. Be prepared to rollover or add further out.
NG had a 3%+ drop after a larger than expected inventory report. I took 4.3 bull puts and got crushed. NG Seasonal is up trend but need to watch this 2 weeks contract risk.
I held my urge to trade grains today. Waiting for tomorrow's USDA report for any change or reset trend. SB was up 20 points on export no to China. Wheat and corn held their up postures. Don't trade the first hour of the report.
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
No Trade 5-7-14
I had to get an operation done on my face today. After I came back most actions were done. ES tested lower after open and met with strong buyers again. Ms Yellen testified in Congress. It perhaps gave the market a shot. NQ and RUT had a losing day and legging. Something needs to watch for.
Grains had a little pull back but nothing major. I don't mind to let time decay and wait for Friday's report.
CL and NG moved in my favor too. CL went up and NG came down.
Grains had a little pull back but nothing major. I don't mind to let time decay and wait for Friday's report.
CL and NG moved in my favor too. CL went up and NG came down.
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Tuesday Turn Around? 5-6-14
ES came back to retest yesterday's low and closed near low of the day. It could be a double bottom or move lower. Market looks tired. It got knocked on the head every time trying to reach the high. However, the up trend is still intact. Keep in mind the possibility of "sell in May and go away". I had two small bull puts in ES 2-3 weeks out. Commodities give better returns in % terms.
Wheat and corn are up again today. Soybean had a later pop to the high of LVA. Traders are eyeing this Friday's USDA report. I should wait for it too.
Energy is still range bound with up skew. I missed NG bull puts for the last two days. It has a very low options volume.
Wheat and corn are up again today. Soybean had a later pop to the high of LVA. Traders are eyeing this Friday's USDA report. I should wait for it too.
Energy is still range bound with up skew. I missed NG bull puts for the last two days. It has a very low options volume.
Monday, May 5, 2014
Unrealized Sell Off 5-5-14
I expected a further down day from last Friday's closing and Sunday night action. Ukraine is still a cloud over hinging. The sell off started right after open. I expected ES to move to the CLVA of 1856-1839 in a day or two. Therefore I didn't want to establish any position early in the morning. But ES met strong buyers at 1860, the low of HVA. I followed my plan despite I didn't get any fill in ES.
Grains started diverging. Soybean was down. Wheat and corn were up. I got in bear calls of June for both wheat and corn. Wheat looks shaky. It may have more upside with poor crop rating and Ukraine situation.
Energies are in rang bound. It helps for time decay. I didn't get any new fill today and I am fine with it.
Grains started diverging. Soybean was down. Wheat and corn were up. I got in bear calls of June for both wheat and corn. Wheat looks shaky. It may have more upside with poor crop rating and Ukraine situation.
Energies are in rang bound. It helps for time decay. I didn't get any new fill today and I am fine with it.
Saturday, May 3, 2014
April Review 5-3-14
April was the best month I have had in terms of total profit ($14K). Adding monthly grains and CL options helped to improve my % of ROM and the efficiency of capital. Now my best week has become the monthly expiration day. I had most trades, 72 in April due to more leg up and add on in grains, plus rollover in ES. The out sized return was partially due to the rollover expiration in wheat. It was a loss of $2000 in March which was rolled over to April with $500 more profit. However they were deeply ITM and had excessive risk. It should not be repeated because the price may not come back to let me recover from it for months or years due to the very trending natural of commodities.
My noticeable improvements:
A. Being calm under pressure. I was more focused on thinking of solutions to defend my positions than clueless like last May and September.
B. Learned more ways to reduce risk and rollover to rescue my under water positions.
C. Looking at bigger pictures and using seasonality to determine trends and trade locations.
D. Felt more confident in trading grain options by knowing more of driving forces of this market.
Mistakes:
A. Moved from my trading rules. I was influenced my another trader on Twitter and sold some very aggressive ES puts earlier in April. These positions in both IB and S5 were quickly deeply under water as the sell off was much steep. I had to rollover these positions with about $4000 under water. Although I have recovered more than a half of it by now. The lesson is that never let my guard down and wave from my rule of at least 60 point away within two week expiration. I removed this twitter feed from my text notification in order to reduce such influence. I was envy his bigger premiums but neglected his often losing trades.
B. Made mistakes in keying orders. I entered two orders in wrong side and buy instead sell. It showed that I didn't follow my order procedure during wild moves of the market. In business terms it's operation error and should be avoided by simply follow procedures in every order.
C. I still have the urge to get my order filled the same day. I tend to move my prices often to chase or gain couple of ticks. This habit should be reduced to only when the volatility is much higher. I need to think in bigger pictures and remind myself there is always another day and another trade. I don't have to risk myself to get in now. Wait for the market to come to me and I am in control.
My noticeable improvements:
A. Being calm under pressure. I was more focused on thinking of solutions to defend my positions than clueless like last May and September.
B. Learned more ways to reduce risk and rollover to rescue my under water positions.
C. Looking at bigger pictures and using seasonality to determine trends and trade locations.
D. Felt more confident in trading grain options by knowing more of driving forces of this market.
Mistakes:
A. Moved from my trading rules. I was influenced my another trader on Twitter and sold some very aggressive ES puts earlier in April. These positions in both IB and S5 were quickly deeply under water as the sell off was much steep. I had to rollover these positions with about $4000 under water. Although I have recovered more than a half of it by now. The lesson is that never let my guard down and wave from my rule of at least 60 point away within two week expiration. I removed this twitter feed from my text notification in order to reduce such influence. I was envy his bigger premiums but neglected his often losing trades.
B. Made mistakes in keying orders. I entered two orders in wrong side and buy instead sell. It showed that I didn't follow my order procedure during wild moves of the market. In business terms it's operation error and should be avoided by simply follow procedures in every order.
C. I still have the urge to get my order filled the same day. I tend to move my prices often to chase or gain couple of ticks. This habit should be reduced to only when the volatility is much higher. I need to think in bigger pictures and remind myself there is always another day and another trade. I don't have to risk myself to get in now. Wait for the market to come to me and I am in control.
Friday, May 2, 2014
Jobs Report 5-2-14
It's the once a month event market goes wild like FOMC, perhaps even more unpredictable. Today's job report came out at 288K vs 216K expected. Indices popped initially and was quickly faded. It was choppy with larger ranges but closed at low of the day. Like the last two months market sold off the same day or the day after the job report. I need to watch next Monday's price action.
Energy sector was stable today and my orders for CL and NG didn't get filled. NG is very slow with no volume in the FOM options. I need to observe it more to see if it's worth to trade.
In grains wheat pushed up to recover most of yesterday's loss. Corn came down further with news of good weather conditions for planting. Soybean traded in a small range. Range bound is good for my positions.
Energy sector was stable today and my orders for CL and NG didn't get filled. NG is very slow with no volume in the FOM options. I need to observe it more to see if it's worth to trade.
In grains wheat pushed up to recover most of yesterday's loss. Corn came down further with news of good weather conditions for planting. Soybean traded in a small range. Range bound is good for my positions.
Thursday, May 1, 2014
A New Month 5-1-14
April is behind us now. I had a good and bad April. It was the best month so far in terms of total profit. Part of the $14K profit was unintended. It was the payoff March's ZW ITM rollover. I can't rely on such rollover very often since commodities trend much stronger and longer. I will do my month review this weekend.
Equities indexes inched up and held their bull flag pattern. I didn't have any new positions in ES today. CL moved to a new low overnight and been steadily up in RTH. It's Filling in a LVA and may be forming a IHS in 120M chart. NG formed a double top yesterday. It dropped near 2% after this morning's storage report higher than expected. I was a tick off to get filled for my bull put. It had option volume 2nd to CL according to CME but I don't see them in trading action nor in IB counter.
Grains had a major sell off this morning after a poor export report. Soybean fall 56 points, the biggest drop in my memory. Both wheat and corn dropped in teens as well. I had fairly good bull put entries for wheat and corn. I can't say the same for SB but they aren't too bad so far. I will watch my risk closely.
Equities indexes inched up and held their bull flag pattern. I didn't have any new positions in ES today. CL moved to a new low overnight and been steadily up in RTH. It's Filling in a LVA and may be forming a IHS in 120M chart. NG formed a double top yesterday. It dropped near 2% after this morning's storage report higher than expected. I was a tick off to get filled for my bull put. It had option volume 2nd to CL according to CME but I don't see them in trading action nor in IB counter.
Grains had a major sell off this morning after a poor export report. Soybean fall 56 points, the biggest drop in my memory. Both wheat and corn dropped in teens as well. I had fairly good bull put entries for wheat and corn. I can't say the same for SB but they aren't too bad so far. I will watch my risk closely.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)