Thursday, May 8, 2014

Reversal? 5-8-14

ES tested overnight low and pushed up to challenge April's high. Then sellers stepped in at 1885 around 2pm. It's the pattern of April and May: Highs got sold hard and lows got bought hard too. The bigger picture is still bullish and the RHS from March to now is still in place. But things could change anytime. I had a fill of 1770 for May 30th. I may enter closer dated positions if the market pull back more.

I entered two RUT credit spread of 1060/50 two weeks out and 1070/60 for a week in my personal account. RUT just crossed its 200 SMA but couldn't hold at closing. It's near a double bottom. If it can't hold then I may be in trouble. Be prepared to rollover or add further out.

NG had a 3%+ drop after a larger than expected inventory report. I took 4.3 bull puts and got crushed. NG Seasonal is up trend but need to watch this 2 weeks contract risk.

I held my urge to trade grains today. Waiting for tomorrow's USDA report for any change or reset trend. SB was up 20 points on export no to China. Wheat and corn held their up postures. Don't trade the first hour of the report.

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