Over all, it was a good and profitable month. I have made progress in discipline and patience. I started to pay more attentions to bigger trends and S/R levels. I realized corn's seasonal and current weather, production related down trend and formed my strategy of mainly selling bear calls. It has worked out well for July's calls. As a matter of fact all of my July bear calls are closed. I have only one bull put left for July. The opposite direction for soybean is working well too. I need to remember to use this process. It was a totally different story for wheat. Wheat was in a bull market with Ukraine situation and drought condition of winter wheat. When wheat started dropping sharply I was too eager to establish bull puts positions. It has been down for three weeks now and all of my bull puts are under water. I also made boredom trades on wheat 625.
A major mistake I made this month was no plan for worst scenario on expiring contract. I had only one plan to deal with the monthly expiration on wheat last Friday. I expected it to pop since it was the Friday before a long weekend and wheat was down two week. I kept moving my last exit deadline hour by hour but refused to plan a worst scenario. It cost two of wheat 625 got assigned with a loss of $650.
I spent more time and resource on commodities than ES this month. The ratio behind it is that commodities, especially grains have better percentage returns than ES and lower margin requirement. The better results are shown in April and May. One factor need to be noted is that part of the higher returns are from options rollovers which means I had ITM positions and took on some unnecessary risks or had bad entries. Such high risk positions may not be able to recovered one day when a trend doesn't change for a long time. The key is to follow my plan and be disciplined. Wait for the market comes to me, not to chase it.
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