Grains didn't have a chance to pop before or after USDA WASDE report. It was under pressure all morning and went straight down after the report like last month. My plan was partially fulfilled today. I was able to enter directional puts in all three grains to hedge the expected drop. But none of my bull puts was exited since there was no pop at all. I thought about getting out some positions at whatever price I could get before the report. But I didn't implement it since I had an expectation of a possible small pop if USDA gave a curve ball. My shortcoming is lack of alternative plan. A better plan would have been to exit some at small loss after puts buying filled. Now I may have to take 5-7X losses. From the price actions of today's closing it appears wheat and corn has further to go and soybean had a decent rejection. I will need to exit some on Monday or Tuesday if we get a small pull back.
Indices had a decent push up in the later part of the day. I only get a ES in S-5 account. I am saving IB margins for commodities. I tried for two day to sell some VIX but no fills. The pull back in equities appear short lived baring from further European shocks or Geo-political event, such as current Israel-Palestinian conflict. Market has largely brushing it off so far.
No comments:
Post a Comment