My result in the week of August 4-8 is flat. I had only three ES bull puts for this weekly expiration. One which I gladly and rightly took stop out and one took a b/e. The last one had a 100% profit.
In the grain front, while waiting for Aug 12 USDA WASDE report I have been mainly adjusting my positions. Selling on the pops and rollover current month underwater positions. It looks like there may not be a pay out for this month either as grains continue in bearish trend. Near perfect weather is the main factor for now. Corn has a clear direction and expectation of down trend. My positions are 100% bearish. I may consider adding some calls of Nov, December bullish options after early Oct seasonal low. My positions in wheat are mixed. I have many bull puts resulting from rollovers. I added couple of puts and sold some bear calls. Some of these bear calls I sold are underwater due to my chasing. I will prepare to take stops for my Aug positions if the USDA report boost wheat price. As for soybean the next 3 futures prices are very close indicating a flat to downward trend. On the other hand the demands appear very strong from China. Would Argentina's debt default cause the farmers there to dump their soybean? Right now my main reference is the seasonality trend. I may continue to rollover my positions to end of this year or early next year for a new plating season.
As the volatility has increased dramatically as geopolitical events develops and grains in a waiting mode, my anxiety level escalate. I have been going to sleep very late, say 3am. To avoid the tiredness and emotions affecting my judgement I need to keep a cool head and make sure to go to sleep before 2am or better.
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