Indices had been up and down in the same balance area for the week. Market has had influences from Greece and Ukraine. It was showing signs of break out to the upside on Friday. The tell may come early next week.
Grains bottomed out following their seasonality. I didn't have much activities other than closing some dried up positions and letting others decay more.
It was a profitable week of $1.4K. I made another error of key in an order without the minus sign. Also sold a SPY 209 bear call without following rules.
I need to firm up my entry rules to be less risky after learning from other KST members. For KST bull put in uptrend market with vol below 18, the rules of engagement should be:
For bull puts
1. the time frame is 45-60 days.
2. 17-20% ITM depending on contracts and 2 major support levels on weekly.
3. Premiums consideration is 2% or better of ROM. Otherwise just wait.
4. POTM should be 90% or better and remove STD as a major consideration.
5. Outside of weekly BB bands and Fib target.
6. Expand the entry level further out when the vol is above 18.
For bear calls
1. 10% ITM and above a major resistance level.
2. Outside of weekly BB band and Fib 23% target.
3. Enter 1/2-2/3 of bull puts size.
Plan to eliminate short term selling to improve my winning rate and reduce risk. It will make risk management much easier.
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