My plan:
US first quarter GDP was 0.2 v.s 1%. Much less than expected. Indices futures went down. ES has been within CHVA of 2094-2011. The lower figure was blamed on weather, energy price and west coast port strike. Market opened lower as well but not in panic mode. All eyes are on Fed today. It's less likely that we will see a rate hike today but market may have a larger than normal exploratory move. I will not add any new indices positions before and the first hr after the FOMC.
Grains moved away from yesterday's low. The drop of US Dollar may be a helping factor. Wheat is forming a IHS on daily. My plan is still wait and see. I may sell conter-trend positions in corn and wheat.
My execution:
FOMC removed any mention of time to raise interest rate. The announcement didn't make a big shot gun effect. I guess market didn't expect much any way. I followed my plan not selling anything within the first hr of the announcement. I sold an ES and RUT in June 1 and 3 respectively. I could not tell which way the market is going from here. I will just play alone with my rules.
Grains gained ground today with dollar falling. Corn and wheat appears making rounded bottom. I placed couple of trades on both side but no fills. I will just wait to see.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
New Highs 4-27-15
My plan:
Indices futures made new highs overnight after Shanghai indices popped 3% on rumors of PBOC QE program and upside of European market. ES made a new high of 2120. I may sell bear calls far out money and time on limited bases with FOMC this Wednesday in mind. Of course I will sell puts if we get a meaningful pull back.
Grains continue to drift down. I don't see any sign of turning for me to sell more puts. I will just wait and let the market play itself out.
My execution:
ES/SPX made another new high in the first hour of trading. It then fall off bed and made a bearish engulfing. It appears big boys are taking some chips off the table and preparing for FOMC this Wednesday. I closed couple of puts positions today. Also sold a RUT 6-3 naked and couple of RUT puts spread for June. We may see more selling tomorrow. My leverage is at 1.57 so I have room to sell more puts. But be cautious about FOMC risk.
Grains continued going down with wheat making a new 52 week low. Corn made a new contract low as well. I don't want to sell any puts unless I see a reversal.
Indices futures made new highs overnight after Shanghai indices popped 3% on rumors of PBOC QE program and upside of European market. ES made a new high of 2120. I may sell bear calls far out money and time on limited bases with FOMC this Wednesday in mind. Of course I will sell puts if we get a meaningful pull back.
Grains continue to drift down. I don't see any sign of turning for me to sell more puts. I will just wait and let the market play itself out.
My execution:
ES/SPX made another new high in the first hour of trading. It then fall off bed and made a bearish engulfing. It appears big boys are taking some chips off the table and preparing for FOMC this Wednesday. I closed couple of puts positions today. Also sold a RUT 6-3 naked and couple of RUT puts spread for June. We may see more selling tomorrow. My leverage is at 1.57 so I have room to sell more puts. But be cautious about FOMC risk.
Grains continued going down with wheat making a new 52 week low. Corn made a new contract low as well. I don't want to sell any puts unless I see a reversal.
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Awaiting for Fed 4-28-15
My plan:
Indices futures recovered from overnight prior to open. ES is trading in 2105-2095 of CHVA. Bonds are falling. My hypotheses 1 is that market will explore in both directions to clear deck for tomorrow. Hypo two is to drop further. There is a gap between 2083-2076 for ES. RUT is weaker but still in range. I will not sell in either side. I may just fill couple puts positions that left yesterday.
Not much changes have happened in grain. Wheat and corn are still bearish. I am still in waiting mode.
My execution:
There was a news driven sell off this morning. The news was about Iran held a cargo ship initially thought it was a US ship. I didn't know the push down was news related at beginning. I tried to sell some June puts but didn't get fill. Buyers were very swift after the ship was confirmed not a US ship. All eyes are on Fed tomorrow. I will not trade indices before and 1 hour after the Fed announcement.
Grains made attempts to recover. Wheat closed within yesterday's range but still in the CLVA. Corn is about the same. Soybean broke out to the upside but got pushed back to top of yesterday/ I may adjust and add counter trend positions with corn and wheat tomorrow.
Indices futures recovered from overnight prior to open. ES is trading in 2105-2095 of CHVA. Bonds are falling. My hypotheses 1 is that market will explore in both directions to clear deck for tomorrow. Hypo two is to drop further. There is a gap between 2083-2076 for ES. RUT is weaker but still in range. I will not sell in either side. I may just fill couple puts positions that left yesterday.
Not much changes have happened in grain. Wheat and corn are still bearish. I am still in waiting mode.
My execution:
There was a news driven sell off this morning. The news was about Iran held a cargo ship initially thought it was a US ship. I didn't know the push down was news related at beginning. I tried to sell some June puts but didn't get fill. Buyers were very swift after the ship was confirmed not a US ship. All eyes are on Fed tomorrow. I will not trade indices before and 1 hour after the Fed announcement.
Grains made attempts to recover. Wheat closed within yesterday's range but still in the CLVA. Corn is about the same. Soybean broke out to the upside but got pushed back to top of yesterday/ I may adjust and add counter trend positions with corn and wheat tomorrow.
Saturday, April 25, 2015
A Follow Through to Upside 4-24-15
My plan:
Indices futures held up well overnight. Greece may agree on a new deal which may boost the market. Fib's weekly target of 23.7% for ES is about 2140. I may cautiously sell some bear calls when meeting my entry rules.
Grains went down overnight following yesterday's sell of before closing. Corn moved into CLVA. Wheat broken last week's trend line. I am out of all of my grains for this month. I will double check my account to make sure I am covered.
My execution:
Indices had an inside day except NQ which I don't trade. ES/SPX stayed in breakout range but choppy. I sold a scalp of SPX 2030/2005 for 35x8. A call of 2220/40 for June 2. Get to be careful in case a big break up and next week's FOMC. I also sold a RUT 1080 naked put for June 3 on Karen's setup.
Grains fall sharply. I am so glad that my plan called to check any left positions. I totally forgot I had a corn 365 put left which was pinned today. I had to exit it for $50 this morning. A good habit and plan do save money. Corn closed at $364.5. My exit of the last wheat 540 bull put was correct yesterday. Wheat lost another 2.8% today. Wheat may make a new low of this year. I may start to prepare for risk reversal again.
Indices futures held up well overnight. Greece may agree on a new deal which may boost the market. Fib's weekly target of 23.7% for ES is about 2140. I may cautiously sell some bear calls when meeting my entry rules.
Grains went down overnight following yesterday's sell of before closing. Corn moved into CLVA. Wheat broken last week's trend line. I am out of all of my grains for this month. I will double check my account to make sure I am covered.
My execution:
Indices had an inside day except NQ which I don't trade. ES/SPX stayed in breakout range but choppy. I sold a scalp of SPX 2030/2005 for 35x8. A call of 2220/40 for June 2. Get to be careful in case a big break up and next week's FOMC. I also sold a RUT 1080 naked put for June 3 on Karen's setup.
Grains fall sharply. I am so glad that my plan called to check any left positions. I totally forgot I had a corn 365 put left which was pinned today. I had to exit it for $50 this morning. A good habit and plan do save money. Corn closed at $364.5. My exit of the last wheat 540 bull put was correct yesterday. Wheat lost another 2.8% today. Wheat may make a new low of this year. I may start to prepare for risk reversal again.
Weekly Review 4-25-15
It was another winning week over all. The profit was $12,700 including the $6000 wheat loss rollover. More than half of the profit was from recover of grain trades as far back as last Sept. It was a very hard lesson of disrespect risk and lack of planing.
Got all winners in indices due to the low volatility. The high vol period may come during the summer. I must obey my rules of engagement.
Grains are still in the down trend. The seasonality hasn't been followed so far this season. My focus is manage risk and recover my current positions.
I need to continue to study IB's Risk Navigator and rules of PM. IB's high margin requirement fee assessment for SPX and RUT has limited my ability to fully implement Karen's system. I had to use more of credit spread instead of naked options. I am considering to move one of my IRA account to TOS so I can do more of credit spread there.
Got all winners in indices due to the low volatility. The high vol period may come during the summer. I must obey my rules of engagement.
Grains are still in the down trend. The seasonality hasn't been followed so far this season. My focus is manage risk and recover my current positions.
I need to continue to study IB's Risk Navigator and rules of PM. IB's high margin requirement fee assessment for SPX and RUT has limited my ability to fully implement Karen's system. I had to use more of credit spread instead of naked options. I am considering to move one of my IRA account to TOS so I can do more of credit spread there.
Friday, April 24, 2015
Topping? 4-23-15
My plan:
ES has been down on European session and up during the day session for the last few days. It hasn't been able to break up or down. It has been in current range from 2028 to 2108 since Feb. A rumor of Greece agreement may be near. It could be a catalyst to move the market. I will sell puts and call spread with any pull back or pop.
Grains inched up a little overnight. I will close my last put position for May 540.
My execution:
ES/SPX broke up before lunch. It made a new high and closed above its current range. It looks like the trading range from Feb is broken out. The average range for ES/SPX is about 60? I sold two set of credit spreads on the call side for early June. I may leg in more if it legs up again tomorrow.
Grains pulled up well early on, only got to sold off before closing. I closed my last 540 bull put and rolled it to Sept. It's a up period according to 5 and 15 yr seasonal. Corn dropped below last week's low. I may consider to let in on bull puts tomorrow.
ES has been down on European session and up during the day session for the last few days. It hasn't been able to break up or down. It has been in current range from 2028 to 2108 since Feb. A rumor of Greece agreement may be near. It could be a catalyst to move the market. I will sell puts and call spread with any pull back or pop.
Grains inched up a little overnight. I will close my last put position for May 540.
My execution:
ES/SPX broke up before lunch. It made a new high and closed above its current range. It looks like the trading range from Feb is broken out. The average range for ES/SPX is about 60? I sold two set of credit spreads on the call side for early June. I may leg in more if it legs up again tomorrow.
Grains pulled up well early on, only got to sold off before closing. I closed my last 540 bull put and rolled it to Sept. It's a up period according to 5 and 15 yr seasonal. Corn dropped below last week's low. I may consider to let in on bull puts tomorrow.
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Buyers In Control 4-22-15
I had a dermatologist appointment this morning.
My execution:
No trade in indices today. I was expecting ES to come down to 2075 area to fill Monday's gap. It only touched Monday's low this morning and buyers stepped in reversed overnight down course. We may see a break up if no bad new or event interfering.
Corn dropped further on supply concerns. Wheat had an inside day fighting the $5.00 mark. I closed two of three May 540 bull puts and collected premiums for the loses. I got to close the last one tomorrow.
My execution:
No trade in indices today. I was expecting ES to come down to 2075 area to fill Monday's gap. It only touched Monday's low this morning and buyers stepped in reversed overnight down course. We may see a break up if no bad new or event interfering.
Corn dropped further on supply concerns. Wheat had an inside day fighting the $5.00 mark. I closed two of three May 540 bull puts and collected premiums for the loses. I got to close the last one tomorrow.
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Up Again 4-21-15
My plan:
Indices moved up overnight with European market. ES is back to challenge last week's high and test the last HVN. I will sell puts if SPX and RUT pull back beyond the gap fill.
Grains fail but still within range. Planting progress and weather are in focus. Get to work on wheat as my last underwater holding.
My execution:
ES fulfilled overnight stats to the down side and closed today's gap. I was hoping it will close Monday's gap so I can sell some puts. It didn't happen and I had no new orders got filled. There were three of puts positions closed. I am at 47% margin now. Let's see if the gap below gets closed tomorrow.
Wheat challenged $5.00 mark but couldn't close above it. I tried to rollover my 540 position with partial risk reversal. I will be more aggressive tomorrow.
Indices moved up overnight with European market. ES is back to challenge last week's high and test the last HVN. I will sell puts if SPX and RUT pull back beyond the gap fill.
Grains fail but still within range. Planting progress and weather are in focus. Get to work on wheat as my last underwater holding.
My execution:
ES fulfilled overnight stats to the down side and closed today's gap. I was hoping it will close Monday's gap so I can sell some puts. It didn't happen and I had no new orders got filled. There were three of puts positions closed. I am at 47% margin now. Let's see if the gap below gets closed tomorrow.
Wheat challenged $5.00 mark but couldn't close above it. I tried to rollover my 540 position with partial risk reversal. I will be more aggressive tomorrow.
Monday, April 20, 2015
A Pull Back or Resume? 4-20-15
My plan:
Indices opened up on Sunday night. It's backed to the valley of current CHVA. ES may be chopping to fill in this valley of 2082-2095. My scalp of SPX 2010/2080 looks safe for now. I placed an order to exit half of it at 0.05. Indices drove up in one direction after open. I may sell bear calls in anticipation of a unlikely new high insight.
I have to leave by noon to drop a relative at airport.
Grains are still chopping around, no more sell off at least. Weather is wet. I plan to deal with the rollover tomorrow.
My execution:
Indices popped up right off of the gate. ES/SPX didn't have a pull back until 2pm. The valley of 2086-97 was filled. It's hard to tell where they would go from here. My bias is leaning towards upside base on the formation of a IHS and volume profile. I didn't have any new positions filled today. Closed this week's RUT puts and calls and the only ES.
Grains chopped as I expected. Wheat closed at Friday's high which is encouraging. Export sales were not strong. Wet ground across most of growing region may pressure corn and wheat prices further. I will start rollover tomorrow.
Indices opened up on Sunday night. It's backed to the valley of current CHVA. ES may be chopping to fill in this valley of 2082-2095. My scalp of SPX 2010/2080 looks safe for now. I placed an order to exit half of it at 0.05. Indices drove up in one direction after open. I may sell bear calls in anticipation of a unlikely new high insight.
I have to leave by noon to drop a relative at airport.
Grains are still chopping around, no more sell off at least. Weather is wet. I plan to deal with the rollover tomorrow.
My execution:
Indices popped up right off of the gate. ES/SPX didn't have a pull back until 2pm. The valley of 2086-97 was filled. It's hard to tell where they would go from here. My bias is leaning towards upside base on the formation of a IHS and volume profile. I didn't have any new positions filled today. Closed this week's RUT puts and calls and the only ES.
Grains chopped as I expected. Wheat closed at Friday's high which is encouraging. Export sales were not strong. Wet ground across most of growing region may pressure corn and wheat prices further. I will start rollover tomorrow.
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Weekly Review 4-19-15
It was a relatively peaceful week. My indices positions turned out to be all winners. I didn't get any chance for a good entry for the first 3 days. Friday's 1% drop provided some entry opportunities. With Yahoo's group I am learning more of Karen style each day. I am still refining my rules and become more conservative.
It appears that Friday's sell off is not over yet. Volatility may increase next week. I will watch my risk as my first job.
Wheat is still my biggest sour spot. It continued to go down. I have to rollover my underwater positions next week. I can close my corn without any losing positions next week.
I will study IB Risk Navigators more next week. Also contact TOS for possible of moving a IRA account over. Need to know TOS fees, margin and commission structures.
It appears that Friday's sell off is not over yet. Volatility may increase next week. I will watch my risk as my first job.
Wheat is still my biggest sour spot. It continued to go down. I have to rollover my underwater positions next week. I can close my corn without any losing positions next week.
I will study IB Risk Navigators more next week. Also contact TOS for possible of moving a IRA account over. Need to know TOS fees, margin and commission structures.
Saturday, April 18, 2015
Change of Tide 4-17-15
Missed my morning plan again as the overnight gap down pulled me into work immediately. Still I must plan my activity in the morning to keep my head clear and follow my plan.
My execution:
Indices futures drift down overnight as Greece is back in news again. Indices gaped down at open. It was a measured move down hill. ES got over S-3, near -1.5%. The extreme of 30+ points was reached before a small recovery in the last 30 min. I made 8 trades today across my accounts from Karen style to Thomas weekly scalp. A noticeable improvement is that I didn't carried away. My subconscious have changed from fear of missing to save some powder for later.
Grains struggled to hold their lows. My wheat bull puts are deep underwater. I will have to roll May 540 over next early next week.
My execution:
Indices futures drift down overnight as Greece is back in news again. Indices gaped down at open. It was a measured move down hill. ES got over S-3, near -1.5%. The extreme of 30+ points was reached before a small recovery in the last 30 min. I made 8 trades today across my accounts from Karen style to Thomas weekly scalp. A noticeable improvement is that I didn't carried away. My subconscious have changed from fear of missing to save some powder for later.
Grains struggled to hold their lows. My wheat bull puts are deep underwater. I will have to roll May 540 over next early next week.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
None Event 4-16-15
I missed to write my trading plan after attending Trade Bite. I totally forgot about it once the market opened.
My execution:
ES fall overnight to closed yesterday's gap. It never looked back after open. I made one Thomas scalp on SPX for $30 each. Try to sell some RUT but didn't work. Volatility is still hanging around 12-14. It's a frustrating day.
Grains went down again but recovered most of it at closing. I added one more June 440 put hopefully it was timely.
My execution:
ES fall overnight to closed yesterday's gap. It never looked back after open. I made one Thomas scalp on SPX for $30 each. Try to sell some RUT but didn't work. Volatility is still hanging around 12-14. It's a frustrating day.
Grains went down again but recovered most of it at closing. I added one more June 440 put hopefully it was timely.
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Back to Up Trend 4-15-15
My plan:
Indices turned up overnight. ES is moving towards breaking out above 2100. I will refrain to selling calls as the uptrend appear not exhausted yet. Other other hand if we pull back to 2090 I will be a seller again. RUT is upon the new high again and my plan is the same as ES.
Grains recovered slightly. I am still in decay mode.
My execution:
Indices broke up as expected. ES is closed on top of current balance area. RUT is firmly standing on the new ground. I made two RUT bear calls across my accounts. 1320/30 for May 2 which appears too close. The other one, 1340/50 for May 4 is at 1 STD, 8% PITM. I bent my plan of not trading call this morning. The driving emotion was to collect some premiums since I didn't have any trade for two days and I needed to make some money. It overcame my rule of safety first.
Grains tried to recover again. Wheat had another day of pop and drop. It's hanging on the cliff of current CHVA. Corn and soybean closed above yesterday's highs at least. I sold one wheat 440 put for June for 175 thinking to be more safe. The turn around may not come yet.
Indices turned up overnight. ES is moving towards breaking out above 2100. I will refrain to selling calls as the uptrend appear not exhausted yet. Other other hand if we pull back to 2090 I will be a seller again. RUT is upon the new high again and my plan is the same as ES.
Grains recovered slightly. I am still in decay mode.
My execution:
Indices broke up as expected. ES is closed on top of current balance area. RUT is firmly standing on the new ground. I made two RUT bear calls across my accounts. 1320/30 for May 2 which appears too close. The other one, 1340/50 for May 4 is at 1 STD, 8% PITM. I bent my plan of not trading call this morning. The driving emotion was to collect some premiums since I didn't have any trade for two days and I needed to make some money. It overcame my rule of safety first.
Grains tried to recover again. Wheat had another day of pop and drop. It's hanging on the cliff of current CHVA. Corn and soybean closed above yesterday's highs at least. I sold one wheat 440 put for June for 175 thinking to be more safe. The turn around may not come yet.
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
A Follow Through Day? 4-14-15
My plan:
ES moved out below yesterday's low overnight. The US retail number came out slightly below expectation. It looks ES/SPX likely to test the CLVA of 2080-2069. On the other hand, indices could just blow up from here since this is the monthly expiration week. I will be a seller of SPX, RUT May 4,5 and June 1 for naked puts.
Grains are in bearish mode overnight. Wheat gave up the $5 mark and is near the low of CHVA. I will wait to see if it will hold. Glad I made a risk reversal and rollover of 510 put. I will wait for a bounce and roll over my May 540 puts.
My execution:
ES had a pop and drop formation after open. However, the drop stopped at 2075 instead of my line of 2070. I didn't get any fill today. It was a frustrating day for me as of no trade in day two.
Wheat attempted to recover but failed after gap fill. It's closed below $5 now. Corn may be forming a round bottom as the edge of CHVA held so far. No trade either.
ES moved out below yesterday's low overnight. The US retail number came out slightly below expectation. It looks ES/SPX likely to test the CLVA of 2080-2069. On the other hand, indices could just blow up from here since this is the monthly expiration week. I will be a seller of SPX, RUT May 4,5 and June 1 for naked puts.
Grains are in bearish mode overnight. Wheat gave up the $5 mark and is near the low of CHVA. I will wait to see if it will hold. Glad I made a risk reversal and rollover of 510 put. I will wait for a bounce and roll over my May 540 puts.
My execution:
ES had a pop and drop formation after open. However, the drop stopped at 2075 instead of my line of 2070. I didn't get any fill today. It was a frustrating day for me as of no trade in day two.
Wheat attempted to recover but failed after gap fill. It's closed below $5 now. Corn may be forming a round bottom as the edge of CHVA held so far. No trade either.
Monday, April 13, 2015
Monday Again 4-13-15
My plan:
Indices have had no meaningful move but held up in Friday's upper range. China/HK markets continued parabolic move up adding another 2%. I am holding my temptation of getting in since there has been no pull back for me to enter. I am following my rules despite missing short term emotional satisfactions. US indices are murky and hard to predict the immediate directions. The overall trend is still up. No any major news release is scheduled today. Therefore I will continue to sell bull puts as my main activity.
Wheat gave up all of Friday's gains overnight on wet weather conditions. It broke last week's low before open. Corn is still in the downtrend and on the edge of CHVA.
My execution:
Indices push up right off the gate. RUT made a new all time high of 1272.5 but was knocked on its head back to prior day's high. ES and SPX were pushed down on an attempt to break out of current balance. I tried to sell some put but no fills. I may get a better opportunity if we see a follow up down push.
Grains moved lower again today. Last week's export data continues to be weak. Wheat lost more than 4%. My 510 put for this month was pushed in the money. I had to make a combo to roll it to June puts and call. Grains are way off their seasonality so far this month. I still have a wheat 510 of this month to be dealt with.
Indices have had no meaningful move but held up in Friday's upper range. China/HK markets continued parabolic move up adding another 2%. I am holding my temptation of getting in since there has been no pull back for me to enter. I am following my rules despite missing short term emotional satisfactions. US indices are murky and hard to predict the immediate directions. The overall trend is still up. No any major news release is scheduled today. Therefore I will continue to sell bull puts as my main activity.
Wheat gave up all of Friday's gains overnight on wet weather conditions. It broke last week's low before open. Corn is still in the downtrend and on the edge of CHVA.
My execution:
Indices push up right off the gate. RUT made a new all time high of 1272.5 but was knocked on its head back to prior day's high. ES and SPX were pushed down on an attempt to break out of current balance. I tried to sell some put but no fills. I may get a better opportunity if we see a follow up down push.
Grains moved lower again today. Last week's export data continues to be weak. Wheat lost more than 4%. My 510 put for this month was pushed in the money. I had to make a combo to roll it to June puts and call. Grains are way off their seasonality so far this month. I still have a wheat 510 of this month to be dealt with.
Saturday, April 11, 2015
Weekly Review 4-11-15
It was a low volatility week for both indices and grains. Indices had a reversal to upside week without any meaningful pull back. I didn't have much activities other than sold couple SPX naked puts on Tuesday. I traded Thomas's weekly vert scalping again this Thursday and made a quick profit. There were only 5 positions in this week with $860 profit of all winners. Due to the low vol my sense of risk was relaxed somewhat. Keep in mind the market could change direction anytime without warning. One notable mistake I made this week was that I exited out ES 1930 put on Monday. The decision was affected by frustration of a bad entry and fear of underwater again. The position didn't reach to my rule of adjusting at 30% PITM. I need to set a rule of scratching a position. It may involve volatility level, days to expiration, etc.
Grains were in range bound with bearish tune. USDA WASDE report didn't bring a volatile reaction. I am finally out of soybean and no more entry for it according to my plan. There are some trouble some wheat positions but manageable. I reduced some positions in wheat for the week. It felt good and mind clear by following a plan and rules.
Grains were in range bound with bearish tune. USDA WASDE report didn't bring a volatile reaction. I am finally out of soybean and no more entry for it according to my plan. There are some trouble some wheat positions but manageable. I reduced some positions in wheat for the week. It felt good and mind clear by following a plan and rules.
After the Reversal 4-7-15
My plan:
Indices held up well overnight. European and Asian market are up following yesterday's reversal here. There is no major news release today. ES is back in upper side of balance area again in weekly and daily. Today it could explore both sides. My plan is to sell puts far out of money and time. Stay with 5% PITM rules.
Grains are under pressure as US dollar moving up. I may try to reduce corn and reverse wheat.
My execution:
ES/SPX retested last week's high of 2082/2090 respectively. They got sold off in the last hour of trading. RUT is a similar story. We may see the retest of crime scene from Monday's break out at least. I sold two SPX Mar 3, 4, 1860, 1830 naked puts near end of the day. Closed couple of RUT and ES April puts.
Grains were choppy to the down side. I didn't have any trade in this front.
Indices held up well overnight. European and Asian market are up following yesterday's reversal here. There is no major news release today. ES is back in upper side of balance area again in weekly and daily. Today it could explore both sides. My plan is to sell puts far out of money and time. Stay with 5% PITM rules.
Grains are under pressure as US dollar moving up. I may try to reduce corn and reverse wheat.
My execution:
ES/SPX retested last week's high of 2082/2090 respectively. They got sold off in the last hour of trading. RUT is a similar story. We may see the retest of crime scene from Monday's break out at least. I sold two SPX Mar 3, 4, 1860, 1830 naked puts near end of the day. Closed couple of RUT and ES April puts.
Grains were choppy to the down side. I didn't have any trade in this front.
Friday, April 10, 2015
Rosy Market All Over 4-10-15
My plan:
Europe and Asia have made new highs again. ES moved above yesterday's high overnight. It looks positive all over the places. I need to prepare for a big run up which may threat my bear calls. On the other hand I will try to sell puts on any pull back.
Grains holding in range and no sell off so far. I will stay in my course.
My execution:
Indices stayed up in a small range after a brief test of yesterday's high. I closed couple next week's put position including part of yesterday's scalping. I didn't get a chance to sell any puts. The up swing appears not over yet by the way of strong closing.
Grains recovered from early losses. Wheat performed stronger and closed above yesterday's high. I may be able to get out part of my wheat puts.
I will review this week's performance tomorrow.
Europe and Asia have made new highs again. ES moved above yesterday's high overnight. It looks positive all over the places. I need to prepare for a big run up which may threat my bear calls. On the other hand I will try to sell puts on any pull back.
Grains holding in range and no sell off so far. I will stay in my course.
My execution:
Indices stayed up in a small range after a brief test of yesterday's high. I closed couple next week's put position including part of yesterday's scalping. I didn't get a chance to sell any puts. The up swing appears not over yet by the way of strong closing.
Grains recovered from early losses. Wheat performed stronger and closed above yesterday's high. I may be able to get out part of my wheat puts.
I will review this week's performance tomorrow.
Thursday, April 9, 2015
The Range Bound May Be Over Soon 4-9-15
My plan:
Indices moved a little overnight. Jobless claim report came out close to expected which didn't move the market much. 10 yr notes are down which may be a telling of equities. I am waiting to see if we get a break out one way or another. RUT is more likely to the up side and may be a leading force for others. I will hold off from selling calls.
Grains are titled lower on this WASDE day. I may not have much luck to get out my bull puts in corn and wheat before the report. Seasonality is not bearish but anything can happen on these report days.
My execution:
Indices held up well despite the slightly disappointing jobless claims. ES broke both overnight low and high. It closed above yesterday's high which is a positive sign. I had only one trade, Thomas's scalping in SPX credit spread. It looks like I should be able to close it tomorrow or Monday for a 80% of quick profit.
USDA report didn't produce a big reaction in corn and wheat which I consider to be lucky. No trade in this front. I will start to exit or rollover my wheat bull puts if wheat has no follow through sell off.
Indices moved a little overnight. Jobless claim report came out close to expected which didn't move the market much. 10 yr notes are down which may be a telling of equities. I am waiting to see if we get a break out one way or another. RUT is more likely to the up side and may be a leading force for others. I will hold off from selling calls.
Grains are titled lower on this WASDE day. I may not have much luck to get out my bull puts in corn and wheat before the report. Seasonality is not bearish but anything can happen on these report days.
My execution:
Indices held up well despite the slightly disappointing jobless claims. ES broke both overnight low and high. It closed above yesterday's high which is a positive sign. I had only one trade, Thomas's scalping in SPX credit spread. It looks like I should be able to close it tomorrow or Monday for a 80% of quick profit.
USDA report didn't produce a big reaction in corn and wheat which I consider to be lucky. No trade in this front. I will start to exit or rollover my wheat bull puts if wheat has no follow through sell off.
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Watch Out 4-8-15
My plan:
Indices futures stayed down in a small range. ES/SPX could go both ways to test breakout area of 2080 above and 2046 below. My plan is to take out mature positions and sell more on either side as the prices in range bound.
Grains are acting weak again. Corn and wheat are still in the down range. I am thinking about to sell puts for recovery based on seasonal.
My execution:
ES/SPX didn't test the target below but the above. There were couple of selling attempts met with buyers at overnight low. RUT is leading the pack at near new high. It could pop or drop on tomorrow's unemployment claim report. The earning season is here again. I sold a set of RUT May 1320/30 call spread in Etrade. Tried Thomas's weekly vertical spread but no fill. I will try it again tomorrow.
Grains held steady. Several sell attempts were pushed back on wheat. I closed a call and put positions for May wheat. USDA WASDE report is tomorrow again. I will try to reduce my positions before the report's shot gun effect.
Indices futures stayed down in a small range. ES/SPX could go both ways to test breakout area of 2080 above and 2046 below. My plan is to take out mature positions and sell more on either side as the prices in range bound.
Grains are acting weak again. Corn and wheat are still in the down range. I am thinking about to sell puts for recovery based on seasonal.
My execution:
ES/SPX didn't test the target below but the above. There were couple of selling attempts met with buyers at overnight low. RUT is leading the pack at near new high. It could pop or drop on tomorrow's unemployment claim report. The earning season is here again. I sold a set of RUT May 1320/30 call spread in Etrade. Tried Thomas's weekly vertical spread but no fill. I will try it again tomorrow.
Grains held steady. Several sell attempts were pushed back on wheat. I closed a call and put positions for May wheat. USDA WASDE report is tomorrow again. I will try to reduce my positions before the report's shot gun effect.
Monday, April 6, 2015
Hanging On a Thread 4-6-15
Indices futures stayed at lower part of the Friday's selling bar after the poor job report. The current figures indicate a gap down for indices. ES is hanging around 2045 in a bear flag pattern and near the double bottom of 2033. We may see 2020-15 which is the weekly Fib 61.8% area if the double bottom fails to hold. ES may go up to test the scene of crime at 2059 and inline with CHVA. With the increased volatility my plan is to sell Karen style puts with far OTM and date. I will try to close near term contracts to release margin.
Grains are holding up well. I will stay on my course of reducing and recovering.
My execution:
Indices made a surprise up turn. ES didn't even bother to retest overnight low. It started with an open drive and blew up my top target, then retest last week's high of 2081. It was a completed reversal. I closed my ES April 4, 1930, SPX April 2 1970/50 and 1860 vertical puts. The ES 1930 was a poor trade from entry to exit. The entry was a boredom trade and exit was based on fear of drop.
Grains traded in last Thursday's range retesting the day's lows. My last soybean position is closed today. I will not trade it again based on margin requirement and volatility.
Grains are holding up well. I will stay on my course of reducing and recovering.
My execution:
Indices made a surprise up turn. ES didn't even bother to retest overnight low. It started with an open drive and blew up my top target, then retest last week's high of 2081. It was a completed reversal. I closed my ES April 4, 1930, SPX April 2 1970/50 and 1860 vertical puts. The ES 1930 was a poor trade from entry to exit. The entry was a boredom trade and exit was based on fear of drop.
Grains traded in last Thursday's range retesting the day's lows. My last soybean position is closed today. I will not trade it again based on margin requirement and volatility.
Saturday, April 4, 2015
Monthly Review 3-15
March was a month of continued recovery. The realized profit from all accounts is $7980 with $740 from personal acct.
The equity market was in range bound for the most of March. It was a fairly good environment for options selling. I didn't have any position stop out during this period. Also my sense of risk control was relaxed. It need to be tightened up. Because of the choppy condition and tight margin I didn't fully implement Karen's strategy as planed. More importantly I wasn't discipline enough to execute my plan.
Grains were range bound within the down trend. I closed many positions as planed which reduced my margin load and risk exposures. Wheat still has some bull puts underwater which I need to slowly reverse them. I am going to stop trading soybean after the last position is closed.
My focus in April is implement risk control measures specifically on entry selection. I will change my Karen style entry of 5% PITM to possible touch. I need to utilize TOS's Analyze tab to measure my entries and assess risk.
The equity market was in range bound for the most of March. It was a fairly good environment for options selling. I didn't have any position stop out during this period. Also my sense of risk control was relaxed. It need to be tightened up. Because of the choppy condition and tight margin I didn't fully implement Karen's strategy as planed. More importantly I wasn't discipline enough to execute my plan.
Grains were range bound within the down trend. I closed many positions as planed which reduced my margin load and risk exposures. Wheat still has some bull puts underwater which I need to slowly reverse them. I am going to stop trading soybean after the last position is closed.
My focus in April is implement risk control measures specifically on entry selection. I will change my Karen style entry of 5% PITM to possible touch. I need to utilize TOS's Analyze tab to measure my entries and assess risk.
Friday, April 3, 2015
Weekly Review 4-3-15
This is a short week due to the Easter Friday. I closed this light week with $1000 profit and no losers. I didn't add any Karen style positions as I planned last week mainly because of margin concerns and fees associated with such positions. In terms of return on capital I figure that 6-7 weeks of holding at 4-5% ROC ($450/10K/50 days) is less than 15-20 days of 2-3% ROC. I have more margins to use next week. I will use some for Karen style positions to lay out some foundations. Today's job report was only half of expected (124K vs 250K). We may see increased volatility on Monday. I will consider to sell some puts when and if ES/SPX come to test 2010/20 area. I will try to exit my ES April 4 1930, 1920 at b/e and reload. I added Thomas's weekly SPX vertical put spread to my trading as a scalping method. So far I had one week winner and yesterday had a bad fill of $0.25 at closing.
Grains have worked in my favor by and large after USDA's planting report last Tuesday. My plan to reduce wheat puts before the report worked well. I am almost out of soybean now.
We may see some increased volatility early next week. I must watch my risk and don't get carried away. The key for ES is 2010 area.
Grains have worked in my favor by and large after USDA's planting report last Tuesday. My plan to reduce wheat puts before the report worked well. I am almost out of soybean now.
We may see some increased volatility early next week. I must watch my risk and don't get carried away. The key for ES is 2010 area.
A Slow Day Before Easter 4-2-15
My Ninja software crashed last night. It took me almost two hours to fix it. So I missed the morning planing.
A slow day was expected.
My execution:
Indices maintained a small positive posture. People are unwilling to committee before tomorrow's job report. Market will be closed for Easter. ES/SPX stayed above CHVA. I placed a SPX put vertical spread based on Thomas's weekly strategy. It's looking pretty good from the statics. I am playing it as a scalping strategy in addition to Karen's set up and my regular 2--30 day set up. Pursue it with caution.
Grains popped, especially with wheat. It went above 5.4 for the first time only to pull back to 5.34. The weekly chart turned up nicely but daily looks a major rejection. I may have to roll out next week. Two of my last three positions in corn closed.
A slow day was expected.
My execution:
Indices maintained a small positive posture. People are unwilling to committee before tomorrow's job report. Market will be closed for Easter. ES/SPX stayed above CHVA. I placed a SPX put vertical spread based on Thomas's weekly strategy. It's looking pretty good from the statics. I am playing it as a scalping strategy in addition to Karen's set up and my regular 2--30 day set up. Pursue it with caution.
Grains popped, especially with wheat. It went above 5.4 for the first time only to pull back to 5.34. The weekly chart turned up nicely but daily looks a major rejection. I may have to roll out next week. Two of my last three positions in corn closed.
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
April Fool, Market Fool 4-1-15
My plan:
Indices dropped early last night. I didn't know the reason last night. It now looks like a Japanese industrial survey came out much lower than expected. ES/SPX opened this morning from the lower end of the gap. After a push up to yesterday's closing, ES is backed to test lower part of overnight. 2034 is a double bottom from the Fed day and last night. I will watch the market for the early part of the day. If the bottom hold or not is the key for me. I will let in more puts if the bottom appears holding. Remember the market is closed on this Friday.
Grains followed through yesterday's trend. Corn and wheat are down and soybean is up. Corn is threatening my positions of 365 now. I may have to roll it feather out.
My execution:
It turned out to be an inside day for indices. The break down didn't happen. I didn't have any new trade. I closed one SPX 4-3 call. The possibility of a retest low is still there.
Wheat and soybean recovered from yesterday. I closed 2 soybean puts and only one left. Margin pressure is somewhat released. I will work on wheat more.
Indices dropped early last night. I didn't know the reason last night. It now looks like a Japanese industrial survey came out much lower than expected. ES/SPX opened this morning from the lower end of the gap. After a push up to yesterday's closing, ES is backed to test lower part of overnight. 2034 is a double bottom from the Fed day and last night. I will watch the market for the early part of the day. If the bottom hold or not is the key for me. I will let in more puts if the bottom appears holding. Remember the market is closed on this Friday.
Grains followed through yesterday's trend. Corn and wheat are down and soybean is up. Corn is threatening my positions of 365 now. I may have to roll it feather out.
My execution:
It turned out to be an inside day for indices. The break down didn't happen. I didn't have any new trade. I closed one SPX 4-3 call. The possibility of a retest low is still there.
Wheat and soybean recovered from yesterday. I closed 2 soybean puts and only one left. Margin pressure is somewhat released. I will work on wheat more.
Month & Quarter End 3-31-15
My plan:
Indices gave back about 055 overnight. ES is down about 10 points at the writing and in the CLVA of 2060-2080. I plan to sell puts on break of overnight low and possible gap fill at 2052. I will wait if it break out of 2080 I will be hands off and watch.
Grains stayed down within yesterday's range. The USDA Acreage report is known for its surprises. I should watch soybean positions as it's not following the seasonality. I will evaluate wheat's price action a hr after the report and plan risk reversal later today or tomorrow.
My execution:
Indices chopped most of the day and started dropping in the last hour of trading. I had 3 of SPX credit spreads filled plus 1 RUT. One ES got filled before lunch. I suspected a repeat pattern of down ward ABC may be in play based on today's closing and after hour's sharp drop. The key for next two days in ES is if the swing low of 2030 will hold. I may be overloaded in puts now. Need to watch my margin levels for each acct.
Grains had shot gun reactions with the USDA report. Corn and wheat were down sharply and soybean held well. I want to see if there are follow through tomorrow.
Indices gave back about 055 overnight. ES is down about 10 points at the writing and in the CLVA of 2060-2080. I plan to sell puts on break of overnight low and possible gap fill at 2052. I will wait if it break out of 2080 I will be hands off and watch.
Grains stayed down within yesterday's range. The USDA Acreage report is known for its surprises. I should watch soybean positions as it's not following the seasonality. I will evaluate wheat's price action a hr after the report and plan risk reversal later today or tomorrow.
My execution:
Indices chopped most of the day and started dropping in the last hour of trading. I had 3 of SPX credit spreads filled plus 1 RUT. One ES got filled before lunch. I suspected a repeat pattern of down ward ABC may be in play based on today's closing and after hour's sharp drop. The key for next two days in ES is if the swing low of 2030 will hold. I may be overloaded in puts now. Need to watch my margin levels for each acct.
Grains had shot gun reactions with the USDA report. Corn and wheat were down sharply and soybean held well. I want to see if there are follow through tomorrow.
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