My plan:
Indices futures broke yesterday's high during Euro session and higher before open on news of slower growth. Looks like a small gap up at open. My ranges for today are: ES, 2109, 2115 above and 2100 and 2096 below. RUT moved into its CHVA of 1230 to 1247. My ranges for it are 1230, 1226 below and 1238, 1243 above. I will try to sell puts on any meaningful pull back and light on the call side.
Corn and wheat are showing a light sign of revival. I may try to sell on call side. Both may be forming a round bottom if plays out.
My execution:
A choppy session as expected with a push down in the afternoon. I sold a call in the morning and a put in the afternoon. Had hard time to exit positions with small premiums left.
Corn and wheat chopped around. No trade were filled.
Friday, July 31, 2015
FOMC Wednesday 7-29-15
My plan
Indices futures stayed in small ranges after yesterday's big gain. Most of the deck clearing are done. I expect choppy session before FOMC announcement at 2pm. I don't plan to add any new positions before and 1 hr after the announcement. I will try to exit some of my mutual positions especially on bear call side.
Corn and wheat gave back most of gains overnight. I will wait to see if them can hold at current levels.
My execution:
FOMC didn't produce a large swing as normally happened. No trade until 1 hr after the announcement.
No trade in grains either.
Indices futures stayed in small ranges after yesterday's big gain. Most of the deck clearing are done. I expect choppy session before FOMC announcement at 2pm. I don't plan to add any new positions before and 1 hr after the announcement. I will try to exit some of my mutual positions especially on bear call side.
Corn and wheat gave back most of gains overnight. I will wait to see if them can hold at current levels.
My execution:
FOMC didn't produce a large swing as normally happened. No trade until 1 hr after the announcement.
No trade in grains either.
Follow Through 7-3--15
My plan:
Indices lowered overnight. US 2nd Q GDP came out at 2.3% annualized v.s. 2.5 expected. 1st quarter GDP number was revised up to 0.6% from -0.2%. It's hard to read indices direction today, but likely auction downward. My ranges for ES are: 2102, 2109 of CLVN to the upside; 2090, 2087 to the downside. RUT is likely to move back to CHVA of 1235 - 1261. It's currently filled the LVA of 1230-1208. My plan is to close ripping positions on both side. I will add positions to unfilled spots in SPX, RUT.
Corn and wheat moved up somewhat overnight. Wheat had a good export report pre market. I don't think it's a trend change event but hope it will stabilize its price trend. Corn is still holding its bear flag.
My execution:
Indices grind up after initial push down beyond overnight low. I missed the chance to sell some puts. However, it was early in the session and the direction was not very clear. I closed couple of positions on both side and sold couple of calls. Made another mistake of the same, forgot the minus sign. It appears there are still room to the upside.
Corn had a positive day while wheat lost ground again. No trade in this front.
Indices lowered overnight. US 2nd Q GDP came out at 2.3% annualized v.s. 2.5 expected. 1st quarter GDP number was revised up to 0.6% from -0.2%. It's hard to read indices direction today, but likely auction downward. My ranges for ES are: 2102, 2109 of CLVN to the upside; 2090, 2087 to the downside. RUT is likely to move back to CHVA of 1235 - 1261. It's currently filled the LVA of 1230-1208. My plan is to close ripping positions on both side. I will add positions to unfilled spots in SPX, RUT.
Corn and wheat moved up somewhat overnight. Wheat had a good export report pre market. I don't think it's a trend change event but hope it will stabilize its price trend. Corn is still holding its bear flag.
My execution:
Indices grind up after initial push down beyond overnight low. I missed the chance to sell some puts. However, it was early in the session and the direction was not very clear. I closed couple of positions on both side and sold couple of calls. Made another mistake of the same, forgot the minus sign. It appears there are still room to the upside.
Corn had a positive day while wheat lost ground again. No trade in this front.
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Turn Around Tuesday 7-28-15
My plan:
I woke up late today.
US indices futures moved up overnight but got pushed back before open. My Ninja Trader is missing overnight data. But it appears ES and TF retested overnight low and started to push up. I won't give targets since it's 2 hr after open now. My plan is to add bear calls to form some strangles and Iron condors. I won't be too aggressive before tomorrow's FOMC. It may give a boost to the market and slap on my face.
Corn and wheat continue to slide. I will wait a little longer before taking any actions. I shall check and print seasonal charts to update mine.
My execution:
It was a turn around indeed. ES/SPX were up 1.2%, RUT had 0.6%. I filled most of strangle, hedge or iron condor in my accounts. I am top heavy in terms margins. Tomorrow is FOMC day. I don't know which way the market will go but I am prepared to deal with it. I will not add any new positions during the first hour of the announcement.
Corn and wheat bounce off of Fib 78 but it's not a turn around action. I tried to add calls to balance my position but no fills. Let's see what tomorrow will bring.
I woke up late today.
US indices futures moved up overnight but got pushed back before open. My Ninja Trader is missing overnight data. But it appears ES and TF retested overnight low and started to push up. I won't give targets since it's 2 hr after open now. My plan is to add bear calls to form some strangles and Iron condors. I won't be too aggressive before tomorrow's FOMC. It may give a boost to the market and slap on my face.
Corn and wheat continue to slide. I will wait a little longer before taking any actions. I shall check and print seasonal charts to update mine.
My execution:
It was a turn around indeed. ES/SPX were up 1.2%, RUT had 0.6%. I filled most of strangle, hedge or iron condor in my accounts. I am top heavy in terms margins. Tomorrow is FOMC day. I don't know which way the market will go but I am prepared to deal with it. I will not add any new positions during the first hour of the announcement.
Corn and wheat bounce off of Fib 78 but it's not a turn around action. I tried to add calls to balance my position but no fills. Let's see what tomorrow will bring.
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Focus On Fed 7-27-15
My plan:
Shanghai index plunged 8.5% overnight. It was the worst one day drop since 2007. There was no apparent reason to point to the drop. My sense is it was more of fear than econ data. European majors are down more than 1% this AM. US stock indices fall below Friday's low. With FOMC nearing, I suspect we will see another test below and turn around later today or tomorrow. My targets are:
ES: Upside: 2070-72, 2077-79; Downside: 2058, 2053 area;
RUT: Upside: 1226, 1234-35; Downside: 1212 and 1205;
I will hold off any major selling on the short side for near term. Look for for OTM and long DTE for positioning.
Corn and wheat gaped down overnight. USD Fall didn't help overnight. I will stay out of further selling for now.
My execution:
Indices continued to melt down today. ES broke my 2058 target but 2 points shorted of 2055. My expected turn around didn't happen today. I would think there would some re-positioning happens tomorrow or Wednesday morning. If it doesn't happen then a real correction would be under way. That would be a real bearish Fed rate anticipation. I added couple more bull puts to fill in some weak spots. I made another stupid forgotten (-) sign mistake again. Luckily it was a credit. I also started to sell naked SPY puts as it requires much less margin (about $300 currently). I may use SPY for my naked put position instead of SPX for scaling profit. The draw backs are higher commissions and tax rate. I will make more profits to off set the draw backs.
Corn and wheat reached their Fib 78% RT level. There are no signs of buyers yet. I will continue to observe it.
Shanghai index plunged 8.5% overnight. It was the worst one day drop since 2007. There was no apparent reason to point to the drop. My sense is it was more of fear than econ data. European majors are down more than 1% this AM. US stock indices fall below Friday's low. With FOMC nearing, I suspect we will see another test below and turn around later today or tomorrow. My targets are:
ES: Upside: 2070-72, 2077-79; Downside: 2058, 2053 area;
RUT: Upside: 1226, 1234-35; Downside: 1212 and 1205;
I will hold off any major selling on the short side for near term. Look for for OTM and long DTE for positioning.
Corn and wheat gaped down overnight. USD Fall didn't help overnight. I will stay out of further selling for now.
My execution:
Indices continued to melt down today. ES broke my 2058 target but 2 points shorted of 2055. My expected turn around didn't happen today. I would think there would some re-positioning happens tomorrow or Wednesday morning. If it doesn't happen then a real correction would be under way. That would be a real bearish Fed rate anticipation. I added couple more bull puts to fill in some weak spots. I made another stupid forgotten (-) sign mistake again. Luckily it was a credit. I also started to sell naked SPY puts as it requires much less margin (about $300 currently). I may use SPY for my naked put position instead of SPX for scaling profit. The draw backs are higher commissions and tax rate. I will make more profits to off set the draw backs.
Corn and wheat reached their Fib 78% RT level. There are no signs of buyers yet. I will continue to observe it.
Saturday, July 25, 2015
Weekly Review 7-25-15
A week of changing wind for equity indices. ES and NQ touched new highs briefly Monday on a contract adjusted base, followed with continued downward movements. Despite some impressive tech earnings, ES/SPX and RUT retested their break out area of Greek deal. I still think it's part of clear deck before FOMC next Wednesday unless we don't see a turnaround Monday or Tuesday. We could see a correction in progress if no turn around before and after FOMC. I followed my rules to enter most of my positions. They are in trading god's hand now. I will deal with my risk base on my rules if and when any position comes to it.
It's a profitable week with $1,800 net income. I had to rollover about $1,200 loss from wheat and corn. They are continuing to trending down. It looks light next week since I don't have many positions on due to my absence of mid June with Yinmore visitors.
The Yahoo group stared shifting to different trading styles. There are some merits for me to learn. Some of them are selling near the money to collect higher premiums and keep rollover when at or in the money. I don't think it's my style. I need to stay with my core system and keep it simple while learning others' merits.
It's a profitable week with $1,800 net income. I had to rollover about $1,200 loss from wheat and corn. They are continuing to trending down. It looks light next week since I don't have many positions on due to my absence of mid June with Yinmore visitors.
The Yahoo group stared shifting to different trading styles. There are some merits for me to learn. Some of them are selling near the money to collect higher premiums and keep rollover when at or in the money. I don't think it's my style. I need to stay with my core system and keep it simple while learning others' merits.
Friday, July 24, 2015
Friday Again 7-24-15
My plan:
ES and TF gave back the after hour gains of yesterday and retesting the break out point. We may see another leg down to test yesterday's low of 2091 for ES. My targets for today are: ES, Up to 2101-04, overnight high, 2108-11 yesterday's high, Down to 2092-89 and 2083-81. There is a gap below at 2082-2070, which is the b/o point for current balance area. RUT has a gap between 1241-1238. We may see 1235 below the gap, Above is 1244 for yesterday's closing and 1250 to get back to yesterday's range.
My plan is to reduce my puts and increase my margin in order to sell more puts.
Grains bear flags are play out. I will wait after today's expiration.
My execution:
Indices didn't get to close their small gaps from yesterday's closing. I was expecting a small range day towards down side. However, market had a very orderly sell off. ES/SPX lost 1% and RUT shred 1.46% during cash session. All of my iron condor positions on the put side were filled. The rest is in trading god's hand now. All of my put positions ended less than 10% pITM at closing despite I entered some of them too early based on my thesis today. I followed my plan to close some positions to reduce margin. All three closed naked puts were above 70% profit. I noticed these far DTE positions filled during high vol time actually can be safer and profitable even on the next weave of high vol.
Grains continued weak trend. Corn and wheat are nearing the Fib RT levels now.
ES and TF gave back the after hour gains of yesterday and retesting the break out point. We may see another leg down to test yesterday's low of 2091 for ES. My targets for today are: ES, Up to 2101-04, overnight high, 2108-11 yesterday's high, Down to 2092-89 and 2083-81. There is a gap below at 2082-2070, which is the b/o point for current balance area. RUT has a gap between 1241-1238. We may see 1235 below the gap, Above is 1244 for yesterday's closing and 1250 to get back to yesterday's range.
My plan is to reduce my puts and increase my margin in order to sell more puts.
Grains bear flags are play out. I will wait after today's expiration.
My execution:
Indices didn't get to close their small gaps from yesterday's closing. I was expecting a small range day towards down side. However, market had a very orderly sell off. ES/SPX lost 1% and RUT shred 1.46% during cash session. All of my iron condor positions on the put side were filled. The rest is in trading god's hand now. All of my put positions ended less than 10% pITM at closing despite I entered some of them too early based on my thesis today. I followed my plan to close some positions to reduce margin. All three closed naked puts were above 70% profit. I noticed these far DTE positions filled during high vol time actually can be safer and profitable even on the next weave of high vol.
Grains continued weak trend. Corn and wheat are nearing the Fib RT levels now.
The Choppy Swing Continues 7-23-15
My plan:
Indices futures pulled back to yesterday's upper range after US initial jobless claim of 255K vs 278K expected. The number is the lowest since 1975. Trade may view it as a supporting fact for FED to raise interest rate this year. ES is filling in a small CLVA between 2112 to 2106. My estimated ranges are: ES up: 2112-14, 2118-2120, down: 2105, overnight low and 2097-95 for the low of current balance area. Expect a choppy session. For RUT which continues diverge from the other majors: Up: 1265-67, 1273-76; Down: 1258-57, 1253-52; I will try to sell more puts in my smaller account to make Iron condors and fill in some spots.
Corn and wheat may be building a bottom if their current lows are holding. I am waiting to see what happens after tomorrow's options expiration.
My execution:
Market started slow and choppy for the first hour and half. The sell off started before lunch. I was not using my levels to plan my trades. ES pushed through my lower target of 2095 by 3.5 point but closed above it. RUT moved with the rest of indices. It dropped much further than my target. VIX is still below 13. I still think it's part of the clear deck before FOMC next Wednesday. Are we going to see a real correction before Fed raise the rate? Or see a summer rally before it drops?
I sold more puts in SPX and ES. I didn't get many fills for RUT despite it dropped more than SPX. I am down to $50K of warning level for margin, the leverage of 1.44. I need to close more positions to raise my margin tomorrow.
Corn and wheat didn't do much today. Their bear flag pattern is well intact. Let's see what will happen after tomorrow's options expiration.
Indices futures pulled back to yesterday's upper range after US initial jobless claim of 255K vs 278K expected. The number is the lowest since 1975. Trade may view it as a supporting fact for FED to raise interest rate this year. ES is filling in a small CLVA between 2112 to 2106. My estimated ranges are: ES up: 2112-14, 2118-2120, down: 2105, overnight low and 2097-95 for the low of current balance area. Expect a choppy session. For RUT which continues diverge from the other majors: Up: 1265-67, 1273-76; Down: 1258-57, 1253-52; I will try to sell more puts in my smaller account to make Iron condors and fill in some spots.
Corn and wheat may be building a bottom if their current lows are holding. I am waiting to see what happens after tomorrow's options expiration.
My execution:
Market started slow and choppy for the first hour and half. The sell off started before lunch. I was not using my levels to plan my trades. ES pushed through my lower target of 2095 by 3.5 point but closed above it. RUT moved with the rest of indices. It dropped much further than my target. VIX is still below 13. I still think it's part of the clear deck before FOMC next Wednesday. Are we going to see a real correction before Fed raise the rate? Or see a summer rally before it drops?
I sold more puts in SPX and ES. I didn't get many fills for RUT despite it dropped more than SPX. I am down to $50K of warning level for margin, the leverage of 1.44. I need to close more positions to raise my margin tomorrow.
Corn and wheat didn't do much today. Their bear flag pattern is well intact. Let's see what will happen after tomorrow's options expiration.
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
Clear Deck Before FOMC 7-22-15
My plan:
Indices futures continued to move lower overnight leaving a 9 point gap for ES. Earnings season gives a good excuse for trade to move market down before next week's FOMC. For ES, above are 2108 gap closing, 2113 to back in yesterday's range. Below are 2103, O/N low and 2097, balance low. RUT gaped down below CHVA of 1253. My ranges are: above 1252.5 closing the gap, 1257.2 back to CHVA. Below: 1245, gap zone below and 1241 into VPOC. I will try to sell on both side base on my rules.
I am still waiting for Grain to show signs of stabilization.
Executive:
ES hit my first target on both side in a choppy way. I lost on SIM. I didn't get most of my selling done. The bad habit of nickle guy is back and made me missed a sell in ES. I hate that habit of being a nickle cheap. I sold a RUT Sept 3 1350 call to make a strangle.
Corn and wheat made attempts to push up but failed on closing. They both are in CHVA. I sold one Oct wheat put below low of this yr.
Indices futures continued to move lower overnight leaving a 9 point gap for ES. Earnings season gives a good excuse for trade to move market down before next week's FOMC. For ES, above are 2108 gap closing, 2113 to back in yesterday's range. Below are 2103, O/N low and 2097, balance low. RUT gaped down below CHVA of 1253. My ranges are: above 1252.5 closing the gap, 1257.2 back to CHVA. Below: 1245, gap zone below and 1241 into VPOC. I will try to sell on both side base on my rules.
I am still waiting for Grain to show signs of stabilization.
Executive:
ES hit my first target on both side in a choppy way. I lost on SIM. I didn't get most of my selling done. The bad habit of nickle guy is back and made me missed a sell in ES. I hate that habit of being a nickle cheap. I sold a RUT Sept 3 1350 call to make a strangle.
Corn and wheat made attempts to push up but failed on closing. They both are in CHVA. I sold one Oct wheat put below low of this yr.
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Failed or Another Try 7-21-15
My plan:
ES pulled back after attempting higher overnight. ES did make a new high on a adjusted contract price. SPX didn't make it. RUT continued to struggle toward lower side of its CLVA. My targets for ES: Above: 2121-22.5, 2124-26; below: 2117-15, 2105-03, gap zone. For RUT: 1266-68 above, 1258-53 gap zone. I plan to sell puts on today's weakness.
Corn and wheat are still showing weakness. I will not sell put for now. I would like to see a sign of stabilizing. I may try to sell calls on rally to balance my positions.
My execution:
ES tested VPOC of 2121 and failed. It was a down day to the end of current balance area. We may see the gap on the way up at 2097 get filled soon. I sold some SPX puts and spread for late August and early Sept. RUT didn't sell off as strong as SPX. It did my 2nd target below and filled the gap at 1252. I didn't have any new positions for it today. Apple's reported well but its share sold off after hr. We may see further down pressure in next couple days. The current pull back could be trade preparing for next week's FOMC.
Corn and wheat continued to slide down. I closed one corn call and couple wheat positions. I would wait to see if the sell off could stabilize before adding puts.
ES pulled back after attempting higher overnight. ES did make a new high on a adjusted contract price. SPX didn't make it. RUT continued to struggle toward lower side of its CLVA. My targets for ES: Above: 2121-22.5, 2124-26; below: 2117-15, 2105-03, gap zone. For RUT: 1266-68 above, 1258-53 gap zone. I plan to sell puts on today's weakness.
Corn and wheat are still showing weakness. I will not sell put for now. I would like to see a sign of stabilizing. I may try to sell calls on rally to balance my positions.
My execution:
ES tested VPOC of 2121 and failed. It was a down day to the end of current balance area. We may see the gap on the way up at 2097 get filled soon. I sold some SPX puts and spread for late August and early Sept. RUT didn't sell off as strong as SPX. It did my 2nd target below and filled the gap at 1252. I didn't have any new positions for it today. Apple's reported well but its share sold off after hr. We may see further down pressure in next couple days. The current pull back could be trade preparing for next week's FOMC.
Corn and wheat continued to slide down. I closed one corn call and couple wheat positions. I would wait to see if the sell off could stabilize before adding puts.
A New High On Monday 7-20-15
My plan:
ES pushed up to 2122 overnight vs 2119 of Friday's closing. It's expected to see this gap closed during the day. ES/SPX are near to test new highs and likely to break out. RUT is still diverging from SPX.
My execution:
ES/SPX pushed down to clear deck after open, then drove up beyond overnight high for ES. They couldn't quit reach the prior high and got sold out in the last hr. I sold some late Aug and early Sept call spread during the drive up. I was lucky to sell ES and RUT puts during the sell off before closing. Bulls are still in control. I think trades want to see what's behind the all time high in the next few days.
Grains moved down sharply again today despite of good exporting data. I sold one each corn and wheat put for Dec below all time lows. I will consider roll over or close them with 50% profit.
ES pushed up to 2122 overnight vs 2119 of Friday's closing. It's expected to see this gap closed during the day. ES/SPX are near to test new highs and likely to break out. RUT is still diverging from SPX.
My execution:
ES/SPX pushed down to clear deck after open, then drove up beyond overnight high for ES. They couldn't quit reach the prior high and got sold out in the last hr. I sold some late Aug and early Sept call spread during the drive up. I was lucky to sell ES and RUT puts during the sell off before closing. Bulls are still in control. I think trades want to see what's behind the all time high in the next few days.
Grains moved down sharply again today despite of good exporting data. I sold one each corn and wheat put for Dec below all time lows. I will consider roll over or close them with 50% profit.
Saturday, July 18, 2015
Weekly Review 7-18-15
It was a partial work week for me. We got back from FL vacation on Tuesday night. The last three days of trading were mostly upward and boring for options sellers. Of course the positions for this week were laid out weeks before. It was an all winner week again with $3700 profit.
The Yahoo trader group is getting crowed with many styles of trade approaches. I am observing and learning from them. But be ware of not being distracted. I am using more and more credit spread instead of naked options for the reasons of efficient margin usage and risk control. The downsides are higher commission cost and harder to scale out.
Grains started to turn negative again. I added couple of positions of corn and wheat bull puts based on seasonality. I will exit or let expire for my July positions next week. Most of them are safe now.
The Yahoo trader group is getting crowed with many styles of trade approaches. I am observing and learning from them. But be ware of not being distracted. I am using more and more credit spread instead of naked options for the reasons of efficient margin usage and risk control. The downsides are higher commission cost and harder to scale out.
Grains started to turn negative again. I added couple of positions of corn and wheat bull puts based on seasonality. I will exit or let expire for my July positions next week. Most of them are safe now.
Friday, July 17, 2015
Options Expiration Friday 7-17-15
My plan:
Indices futures stayed up in a very narrow range overnight. With the monthly options expiration we may see some random price actions. One possibility is ES pinning 2110 as a high volume of OI parked there. My targets for ES: 2123-25, 2133-35, new high; 2116-14, 2112-10 below; RUT: 1276-78.5. 1283.8-1286 after the gap fill above; 1269-67, 1264-62; I will try to reduce naked calls and add put spread in.
I will evaluate my approach to corn and wheat since the last lows could not hold. Plus I plan to close more of my July positions.
My execution:
Indices traded in small ranges again. It appears building energies for another run. ES did test my 2nd level below. RUT reached 1264 also. But I didn't have any new positions added. I took off one RUT call of Aug 3 to reduce my margin and bear side exposures. ES closed at 2119.75, high of the day.
I sold 2 wheat Nov 770 calls and corn Nov 350 puts. I am relatively balanced for now.
Indices futures stayed up in a very narrow range overnight. With the monthly options expiration we may see some random price actions. One possibility is ES pinning 2110 as a high volume of OI parked there. My targets for ES: 2123-25, 2133-35, new high; 2116-14, 2112-10 below; RUT: 1276-78.5. 1283.8-1286 after the gap fill above; 1269-67, 1264-62; I will try to reduce naked calls and add put spread in.
I will evaluate my approach to corn and wheat since the last lows could not hold. Plus I plan to close more of my July positions.
My execution:
Indices traded in small ranges again. It appears building energies for another run. ES did test my 2nd level below. RUT reached 1264 also. But I didn't have any new positions added. I took off one RUT call of Aug 3 to reduce my margin and bear side exposures. ES closed at 2119.75, high of the day.
I sold 2 wheat Nov 770 calls and corn Nov 350 puts. I am relatively balanced for now.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Going up and up 7-16-15
My plan:
Indices futures moved up on Greece Parliament approval of the bail out package. ES moved up to 2115 with a near 10 point gap. TF is near the gap zone of 1271. ES/SPX are set to challenge the all time high of 2135 in May and possibly to make a new high. My targets for ES to the upside: 2118, 2123 and 2125 for new high. The downside is 2107, 2104 and 2100. As for RUT, I am looking at 1279, 1284 for the upside and 1273 and 1267 to the downside. I will cautiously to sell bear calls into my empty slots and aggressively sell bull puts.
Grains turn around to upside. My plan is to close my wheat and corn positions for July.
My execution:
ES/SPX gaped up and didn't even attempt to fill a half gap. ES got to 2117.5 near my first target. RUT was weaker than the rest of indices. It still couldn't close the break down gap. Let's see what they would do on tomorrow's option expiration day.
Wheat and corn fall back but didn't quit get to yesterday's low. I sold Dec wheat 450 puts for recovering my July calls before last week's USDA report. Wheat broke yesterday's low in the evening session. I will re-access my approach to puts and calls tomorrow.
Indices futures moved up on Greece Parliament approval of the bail out package. ES moved up to 2115 with a near 10 point gap. TF is near the gap zone of 1271. ES/SPX are set to challenge the all time high of 2135 in May and possibly to make a new high. My targets for ES to the upside: 2118, 2123 and 2125 for new high. The downside is 2107, 2104 and 2100. As for RUT, I am looking at 1279, 1284 for the upside and 1273 and 1267 to the downside. I will cautiously to sell bear calls into my empty slots and aggressively sell bull puts.
Grains turn around to upside. My plan is to close my wheat and corn positions for July.
My execution:
ES/SPX gaped up and didn't even attempt to fill a half gap. ES got to 2117.5 near my first target. RUT was weaker than the rest of indices. It still couldn't close the break down gap. Let's see what they would do on tomorrow's option expiration day.
Wheat and corn fall back but didn't quit get to yesterday's low. I sold Dec wheat 450 puts for recovering my July calls before last week's USDA report. Wheat broke yesterday's low in the evening session. I will re-access my approach to puts and calls tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
Back to the Battle Field 7-15-15
I am back at my desk today after a week of FL vacation. With Greagreament and Chinese government intervention of its market crash US indices and futures are back to its up trend. ES and SPX closed their down gap of June 26. TF/RUT appear to be able to close it today. ES closed at the top of its current CHVA, above 2100. ES looks to challenge 2109 and 2117 above, below would be 2095 and 2089. RUT is in mid of CLVA of 1265-1290. It may take some time to fill in this area. Today's range would be 1279 and 1286 above, 1268 and 1263 below. I will try to sell puts for late Aug in both SPX and RUT on any weakness and cautiously fill in empty bear calls.
Gains pulled back for the last few days. I am fine in both calls and puts for now. I will try to exit my July contracts and lock in my profit.
My execution:
ES didn't show much buying power during the RTH and was pushed back to yesterday's range. It didn't reach my upper target of 2109 but hit my lower target of 2095 to the tick. Buyers stepped in before cash session took it back to current balance area. RUT was much weaker during the RTH. It touched the gap day's low but didn't close the gap. My 2nd area below of 1263 was hit. Over all it was a small range day for indices. I didn't have any new trade filled. My July 5 SPX 2230 bear call was closed for 0.10.
No orders for wheat position were filled either. Will try again tomorrow.
Gains pulled back for the last few days. I am fine in both calls and puts for now. I will try to exit my July contracts and lock in my profit.
My execution:
ES didn't show much buying power during the RTH and was pushed back to yesterday's range. It didn't reach my upper target of 2109 but hit my lower target of 2095 to the tick. Buyers stepped in before cash session took it back to current balance area. RUT was much weaker during the RTH. It touched the gap day's low but didn't close the gap. My 2nd area below of 1263 was hit. Over all it was a small range day for indices. I didn't have any new trade filled. My July 5 SPX 2230 bear call was closed for 0.10.
No orders for wheat position were filled either. Will try again tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
Awaiting for EU and Greece 7-7-15
Indices moved up modestly overnight. ES retested the high of last Thursday. It falls back to yesterday's closing right at 9 AM now. TF has had a similar pattern. EU is scheduled to have its summit today to discuss Greece situation. Market is waiting for any development of the summit.
My ES/SPX targets are: 2069-72, 2076-79 to the upside, 2060-57, 2053-50 to the down side. RUT: 1251-53, 1257-59 to the upside and 1242-40, 1238-36.
My execution:
All of my levels for the downside in ES/SPX and RUT got pouched through. I didn't expect the retest of ES Sunday low was going to be retested today. Of course the EU summit might have affected the price actions. Buyers stepped in at exact point of ES Sunday low and SPX 200 MA. ES/SPX closed with a bullish engulfing daily bar. RUT was not as strong as SPX. It closed at yesterday's value high. I sold couple more SPX August 3, 5 put spreads. Also closed a SPX July 3, 1860 put and a RUT July 3 1070 put to raise some margin and lock in my profit at 90+ %.
Wheat came down near 2% so I rolled over couple of my July calls and lock in July 505 put profit and roll it down to Dec.
I am going to FL for a family vacation starting tomorrow. I will trade with limited access. until next Wednesday.
My ES/SPX targets are: 2069-72, 2076-79 to the upside, 2060-57, 2053-50 to the down side. RUT: 1251-53, 1257-59 to the upside and 1242-40, 1238-36.
My execution:
All of my levels for the downside in ES/SPX and RUT got pouched through. I didn't expect the retest of ES Sunday low was going to be retested today. Of course the EU summit might have affected the price actions. Buyers stepped in at exact point of ES Sunday low and SPX 200 MA. ES/SPX closed with a bullish engulfing daily bar. RUT was not as strong as SPX. It closed at yesterday's value high. I sold couple more SPX August 3, 5 put spreads. Also closed a SPX July 3, 1860 put and a RUT July 3 1070 put to raise some margin and lock in my profit at 90+ %.
Wheat came down near 2% so I rolled over couple of my July calls and lock in July 505 put profit and roll it down to Dec.
I am going to FL for a family vacation starting tomorrow. I will trade with limited access. until next Wednesday.
Monday, July 6, 2015
Monday Dive? 7-6-15
Greece said No on Sunday and US indices futures gaped down 1.5% on Sunday night open. European Union is moving into a uncharted territory. My measured moves to the down side are 2030 then 2019 area for ES. I also prepared to roll over my ES July 4, 1950 puts for a loss and other steps to reduce my margin when it was standing at $32K only.
European market opened with a pull back from the low and the US opened with one way straight up. ES pushed beyond gap on the 2nd hr of RTH. The high was 2070.5. A retest of 2015 was bought with force until closing. ES/SPX are closed within current balance area. RUT's HS pattern is hanging on the right shoulder now.
I closed my VIX bear call for a 60% gain. Bought back 3 SPX 1860 this week to increase buying power. I also sold a Aug 5 ES 1720 put on Karen's setup with 56 DTE.
Grains were range bound. Bed weather kept prices up despite large inventory and higher USD. I lock and roll Sept 505 wheat for $750 profit. Too bad I didn't check my order quantity. I meant to close both positions.
I will try to double check risk of my positions and get ready for vacation on Wednesday.
European market opened with a pull back from the low and the US opened with one way straight up. ES pushed beyond gap on the 2nd hr of RTH. The high was 2070.5. A retest of 2015 was bought with force until closing. ES/SPX are closed within current balance area. RUT's HS pattern is hanging on the right shoulder now.
I closed my VIX bear call for a 60% gain. Bought back 3 SPX 1860 this week to increase buying power. I also sold a Aug 5 ES 1720 put on Karen's setup with 56 DTE.
Grains were range bound. Bed weather kept prices up despite large inventory and higher USD. I lock and roll Sept 505 wheat for $750 profit. Too bad I didn't check my order quantity. I meant to close both positions.
I will try to double check risk of my positions and get ready for vacation on Wednesday.
Friday, July 3, 2015
Monthly Review 6-2015
June was another low volatility month for equity market. ES traded in 2061 to 2123 range which was similar to May. RUT had a different story. It made a new high of 1292.5 in late of the month. The low of RUT was 1231. It was a total winning month without a single losing trade in indices, thanks to the low vol environment. The total profit in all accounts is $19,360 minus interest and fees.
I recovery most positions in wheat and corn for June contracts. Locked in some profit and rolled over to July and August. The recovery continues.
I modified my trading plan for indices options today since VIX is above 15 on the turmoil of Greece. It reflects the current market condition and my learning from Karen's trade group. It's intend to improve my entry with safety measures, risk control and rate of return. I will implement it starting in July and modify it along the way. I will be more conservative when VIX is high and more aggressive when VIX is low (below 15).
I recovery most positions in wheat and corn for June contracts. Locked in some profit and rolled over to July and August. The recovery continues.
I modified my trading plan for indices options today since VIX is above 15 on the turmoil of Greece. It reflects the current market condition and my learning from Karen's trade group. It's intend to improve my entry with safety measures, risk control and rate of return. I will implement it starting in July and modify it along the way. I will be more conservative when VIX is high and more aggressive when VIX is low (below 15).
Weekly Review 7-3-15
It was a short week due to the July 4th long weekend. The back to back of week 4 and month end stack up the returns if they are winning weeks. This week along with month end on Tuesday added $4500 to my earnings.
Volatility turned up on Monday after Greek government walked out of debt negotiation over the weekend. Some of my early entries got pushed underwater. I need to refine my entry criteria to make my positions able to survive a 10% within 30 day drop. One way I can think of right now is to enter my first run of positions with Karen's setup with naked or spread. The DTE is about 50-60 days, 17% and 2.5 STD from current price on the down side for current uptrend market. Also if VIX is above 15 I then will switch PITM to POT.
I will then add more positions between 30-45 DTE when conditions are right. I will try to exit my regular positions with 75-90% profit depending on market conditions.
Wheat and corn turned to against me on the call side after a big jump following USDA Acreage and Stock report of 6-30. I will have to manage my positions from the opposite direction with seasonality.
Volatility turned up on Monday after Greek government walked out of debt negotiation over the weekend. Some of my early entries got pushed underwater. I need to refine my entry criteria to make my positions able to survive a 10% within 30 day drop. One way I can think of right now is to enter my first run of positions with Karen's setup with naked or spread. The DTE is about 50-60 days, 17% and 2.5 STD from current price on the down side for current uptrend market. Also if VIX is above 15 I then will switch PITM to POT.
I will then add more positions between 30-45 DTE when conditions are right. I will try to exit my regular positions with 75-90% profit depending on market conditions.
Wheat and corn turned to against me on the call side after a big jump following USDA Acreage and Stock report of 6-30. I will have to manage my positions from the opposite direction with seasonality.
NFP Day Again 7-2-15
My plan:
NFP came out slightly lower than consensus (223K vs. 231K). Futures pushed up to a little. Today's ES level: UP: 2079-2083, 2087-90; Down: 2070-67, 2063-2058; RUT: UP: 1262-64.8, 1267-69; Down: 1251-49.7, 1246.7-1243.
I will trade light in both indices and grains before the long weekend and Greek referendum.
My execution:
Market drifting down after open. NFP didn't inspire market. ES touched my 2nd low target then bounced before closing. RUT also moved into my 2nd down area. I sold some mid Aug spreads to fill in some empty or underwater spots. I also sold to Weekly Scalp 100 where I could make them into Iron Condors. I feel that selling within 35 DTE tend to get me underwater when volatility increases. I may start to sell above 50 days first to establish my initial positions. Then I can wait for additional swings to add on new positions. This would be a more systematic approach than my current sling shot approach. Also, I will use Probability of Touch instead of PITM when volatility is above 15.
Corn made a new high of couple cents while wheat gave back all of today's gains. I sold 2 corn Sept 550 call for 2.125 based on seasonality. I am waiting to see if wheat's HS top pattern would play out.
Now all eyes are on Greek referendum this Sunday. I will reduce some market exposure next Monday and Tuesday since I am going to take a family vacation on next Wednesday.
NFP came out slightly lower than consensus (223K vs. 231K). Futures pushed up to a little. Today's ES level: UP: 2079-2083, 2087-90; Down: 2070-67, 2063-2058; RUT: UP: 1262-64.8, 1267-69; Down: 1251-49.7, 1246.7-1243.
I will trade light in both indices and grains before the long weekend and Greek referendum.
My execution:
Market drifting down after open. NFP didn't inspire market. ES touched my 2nd low target then bounced before closing. RUT also moved into my 2nd down area. I sold some mid Aug spreads to fill in some empty or underwater spots. I also sold to Weekly Scalp 100 where I could make them into Iron Condors. I feel that selling within 35 DTE tend to get me underwater when volatility increases. I may start to sell above 50 days first to establish my initial positions. Then I can wait for additional swings to add on new positions. This would be a more systematic approach than my current sling shot approach. Also, I will use Probability of Touch instead of PITM when volatility is above 15.
Corn made a new high of couple cents while wheat gave back all of today's gains. I sold 2 corn Sept 550 call for 2.125 based on seasonality. I am waiting to see if wheat's HS top pattern would play out.
Now all eyes are on Greek referendum this Sunday. I will reduce some market exposure next Monday and Tuesday since I am going to take a family vacation on next Wednesday.
Wednesday, July 1, 2015
A Day Saved 7-1-15
I need to at least identify some levels in the morning even after market open if I don't have time to write a market plan.
My execution:
indices futures went up after Europe open with news of Greek government blinked. They issued a statement of willing to negotiate with creditors again. ES hit 2077 of HVN. US indices traded a small range. ES was about 15 point wide and closed above yesterday's high. Now all eyes are on the US job report tomorrow morning and the last regular trading day before the July 4th long weekend. The job report could volatile again. I am out of anything above 2010 for my scalp of the week. I should be safe with 60 point distance and 1 day left. I may skip the scalp 100 trade for next week since the Greek vote is on Sunday and I will be on vacation mid of next week.
Grains had a wild day. Wheat came down to retest yesterday's low only pulled back before close. It was down near 6% at one point. I reversed my July 610 to Sept puts and Aug 680 call. There more work to do on the call side.
My execution:
indices futures went up after Europe open with news of Greek government blinked. They issued a statement of willing to negotiate with creditors again. ES hit 2077 of HVN. US indices traded a small range. ES was about 15 point wide and closed above yesterday's high. Now all eyes are on the US job report tomorrow morning and the last regular trading day before the July 4th long weekend. The job report could volatile again. I am out of anything above 2010 for my scalp of the week. I should be safe with 60 point distance and 1 day left. I may skip the scalp 100 trade for next week since the Greek vote is on Sunday and I will be on vacation mid of next week.
Grains had a wild day. Wheat came down to retest yesterday's low only pulled back before close. It was down near 6% at one point. I reversed my July 610 to Sept puts and Aug 680 call. There more work to do on the call side.
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