My plan:
Indices futures pulled back to yesterday's upper range after US initial jobless claim of 255K vs 278K expected. The number is the lowest since 1975. Trade may view it as a supporting fact for FED to raise interest rate this year. ES is filling in a small CLVA between 2112 to 2106. My estimated ranges are: ES up: 2112-14, 2118-2120, down: 2105, overnight low and 2097-95 for the low of current balance area. Expect a choppy session. For RUT which continues diverge from the other majors: Up: 1265-67, 1273-76; Down: 1258-57, 1253-52; I will try to sell more puts in my smaller account to make Iron condors and fill in some spots.
Corn and wheat may be building a bottom if their current lows are holding. I am waiting to see what happens after tomorrow's options expiration.
My execution:
Market started slow and choppy for the first hour and half. The sell off started before lunch. I was not using my levels to plan my trades. ES pushed through my lower target of 2095 by 3.5 point but closed above it. RUT moved with the rest of indices. It dropped much further than my target. VIX is still below 13. I still think it's part of the clear deck before FOMC next Wednesday. Are we going to see a real correction before Fed raise the rate? Or see a summer rally before it drops?
I sold more puts in SPX and ES. I didn't get many fills for RUT despite it dropped more than SPX. I am down to $50K of warning level for margin, the leverage of 1.44. I need to close more positions to raise my margin tomorrow.
Corn and wheat didn't do much today. Their bear flag pattern is well intact. Let's see what will happen after tomorrow's options expiration.
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