A relief rally crossed from Asia to Europe overnight. European markets are above 2% across board. US futures are holding 1% gain overnight but still in Monday's range. Today is end of the quarter and we may see some window dress early on.
My plan is to sell some calls to keep with the down trend. However I need to reduce my overall risk below Leverage 4, expected shortfall under $60K and available funds above $80K. May be some call spreads will help adding bear calls.
Bulls finally had their day. Indices gaped up and regained the most of 2% down day. ES only retested yesterday's high and broke both side of IB. I sold some bear call spreads across my accounts. I didn't want to commit too much buying power for naked calls. I closed most of puts for this week. I brought leverage down to 4 and VAR/ES below $60K. But available fund is only $52K since calls take too much of buying power.
Pros are positioning for this Friday's job report. We may see another day or two up swing. I am not sure if the August low retest is done. It may tell more next week.
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
A Day of Rest 9-29-15
This is the 2nd day that I missed my morning planing.
Indices had a decent push up early morning but bears are in control early high failed. It was a tug war until yesterday's low broke in early afternoon.
I struggled to sell calls kept hoping a decent pull back. I finally sold a set of SPY calls and along with a SPX bear call earlier to make my margin to the call side. I need to reduce my positions in puts soon. SPX's initial retest of August low may result a bounce which I may be able to use to unload some of my puts. I am not sure if it will hold ultimately on the 2nd try. I need to prepare for the worst case scenario. I still have puts at 1800 whereas Keith has nothing above 1700.
Indices had a decent push up early morning but bears are in control early high failed. It was a tug war until yesterday's low broke in early afternoon.
I struggled to sell calls kept hoping a decent pull back. I finally sold a set of SPY calls and along with a SPX bear call earlier to make my margin to the call side. I need to reduce my positions in puts soon. SPX's initial retest of August low may result a bounce which I may be able to use to unload some of my puts. I am not sure if it will hold ultimately on the 2nd try. I need to prepare for the worst case scenario. I still have puts at 1800 whereas Keith has nothing above 1700.
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
A Trending Monday 9-28-15
Futures had a small gap down on Sunday night. European opened with sell off which dragged US futures further down. US market opened with orderly selling and couldn't pull itself up at all. RUT is leading the flush as biotech and healthcare sectors continued falling. ES/SPX were down 3% in the early afternoon. They closed around 2.6% down. RUT performed the worst and closed below late August low. I sold couple far out puts earlier but realized the selling was severer. I then turned my focus to selling calls to reverse my margin to the call side. I think Tyler's concept of being heavy on calls has its merits. Market doesn't crash up. It's easier to adjust call side.
My leverage is up to 0.5 again and available margin is around $70K. I need to reduce my risk levels as volatility is creeping up again. Let's see if the August low retest will be successful. I have puts in SPX and RUT may be in danger if the retest failed. RUT doesn't look very promising.
My leverage is up to 0.5 again and available margin is around $70K. I need to reduce my risk levels as volatility is creeping up again. Let's see if the August low retest will be successful. I have puts in SPX and RUT may be in danger if the retest failed. RUT doesn't look very promising.
Saturday, September 26, 2015
Weekly Review 9-26-15
Indices continued to downward this week after last week's FED announcement. SPX and RUT retested early Sept's lows of 1910 and 1112 respectively. SPX held, but RUT failed the retest on daily and weekly charts. Biotech and healthcare were amount notable sectors pulling down RUT and SPX. The next level below for both indices is the Fib 78.6% RT and possible August 24 lows.
I have been adding bear calls on any attempts of bounce and staying heavy on bearish side in my positions and margin usage. So far it's working. My recovery continues slowly. The P/L for this week is -$3100 with realized August losses. The balance is down from -7K to -4K. The realized losses will continue to show into early Oct and impact Oct's total returns. My goal is to make a positive return for this year.
The learning and refining my trading system continues. I am staying small and managing my profit from 50 to 90%. I have learned a lot from the Skype KST group where members share their trading practices and styles. So far I have leaned to widen my spreads, collect more premiums and smaller sizing. I will try to trade straddles in my paper account first as Craig has shown his success on Tasty Trade.
My main task for risk control is to figure out how much capital is enough or safe for one spread, one naked or one straddle. My biggest failure during this sharp down turn was over leveraged without knowing my real risk levels.
I have been adding bear calls on any attempts of bounce and staying heavy on bearish side in my positions and margin usage. So far it's working. My recovery continues slowly. The P/L for this week is -$3100 with realized August losses. The balance is down from -7K to -4K. The realized losses will continue to show into early Oct and impact Oct's total returns. My goal is to make a positive return for this year.
The learning and refining my trading system continues. I am staying small and managing my profit from 50 to 90%. I have learned a lot from the Skype KST group where members share their trading practices and styles. So far I have leaned to widen my spreads, collect more premiums and smaller sizing. I will try to trade straddles in my paper account first as Craig has shown his success on Tasty Trade.
My main task for risk control is to figure out how much capital is enough or safe for one spread, one naked or one straddle. My biggest failure during this sharp down turn was over leveraged without knowing my real risk levels.
Attempts To Go Higher 9-25-15
Futures moved up about 1% overnight after European opened. SPX/ES stayed above Wednesday's high until 2pm on this weekly expiration Friday. RUT was weaker and led the sell off much earlier. ES not only closed the overnight gap and tested 1910 again. RUT broke yesterday's low and closed below it. It looks like RUT will test Fib 78.6% around 1100 and August low could be the next. SPX may follow the suit.
I was able to close some puts during the morning push up and sold some call spreads. I also sold one set of Oct 5, RUT 5X put spread. A new idea from Tyler which he uses much wider spread. I am just experimenting and observing the effect of it. During the sell off my margin turned over to the puts side. The last naked SPX bear call turned it around before closing. My Leverage stayed at 0.38, available funds went down to $72K, VAR and ES reduced few thousand $ to $52K and 60K. I am still not very clear how these numbers interact. I am watching them closely though.
I was able to close some puts during the morning push up and sold some call spreads. I also sold one set of Oct 5, RUT 5X put spread. A new idea from Tyler which he uses much wider spread. I am just experimenting and observing the effect of it. During the sell off my margin turned over to the puts side. The last naked SPX bear call turned it around before closing. My Leverage stayed at 0.38, available funds went down to $72K, VAR and ES reduced few thousand $ to $52K and 60K. I am still not very clear how these numbers interact. I am watching them closely though.
Friday, September 25, 2015
Retest Recent Lows 9-24-15
It was another gap down day. SPX and RUT retested Sept 1st lows which lined up with Fib 61.8%. Both of them bounced from there and rallied back to yesterday's low. The retest may not be over unless indices close above yesterday's high and hold it. I didn't look at the Fib levels until market closed. Otherwise it may be just another short lived snap back.
I sold some calls and call spreads today. My margin is back on the call side again. However, I was bit too early despite I thought there may be a snap back. I also tried to sell some puts but no fills. I should close more naked calls tomorrow to bring my available margin back to 100K. I have about 50% left and leverage is at 0.39.
I sold some calls and call spreads today. My margin is back on the call side again. However, I was bit too early despite I thought there may be a snap back. I also tried to sell some puts but no fills. I should close more naked calls tomorrow to bring my available margin back to 100K. I have about 50% left and leverage is at 0.39.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
A Day Saved 9-23-15
A flash in ES hit 1910 after China's PMI reported lower than expected. I thought the 2nd shoe is going to drop. However, European opened higher and saved the day. ES traded inside of yesterday's range. RUT is the legging part now. It's chart appears more bearish than the others and hanging on the edge of its CHVA. Once if it falls below there is not much volume support to it's recent low of 1100. The recent pattern is hit overnight and recover partially on RTH.
I tried to add some bear calls today after couple of them closed on my target. I only had one set of SPX call spread filled this morning. My margin is shifted to the put side now. I plan to continue add to call side in case we get another flush down. I still see a 43K short fall risk with leverage at 0.37.
I tried to add some bear calls today after couple of them closed on my target. I only had one set of SPX call spread filled this morning. My margin is shifted to the put side now. I plan to continue add to call side in case we get another flush down. I still see a 43K short fall risk with leverage at 0.37.
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Turn Around Tuesday 9-22-15
US futures were dragged down by European market with VW's scandal and bearish sentiment. DAX closed down 3.8%. ES was down near 2% by noon only recovered back to down 1.23% at closing. It tested Fib 50% RT today and bounced. MACD is turning negative on daily again. RUT has a similar picture and not showing oversold conditions. The next target below is Fib 61.8% for both indices I am trading.
I had my annual check up today so I didn't trade this morning. I place couple puts spread in RUT after I came back from Doctor's office. None of them got filled during the afternoon's recovery. I sold 4 SPY Nov bear calls leverage the selling pressure and scalping. I appears Tyler's heavy on call side has its merit for reducing risk of market crush. I need to study more of its perimeters.
US futures are down again after Asian market opened and fall. It looks like the 2nd shoe is falling down now.
I had my annual check up today so I didn't trade this morning. I place couple puts spread in RUT after I came back from Doctor's office. None of them got filled during the afternoon's recovery. I sold 4 SPY Nov bear calls leverage the selling pressure and scalping. I appears Tyler's heavy on call side has its merit for reducing risk of market crush. I need to study more of its perimeters.
US futures are down again after Asian market opened and fall. It looks like the 2nd shoe is falling down now.
Monday, September 21, 2015
New Trend on Monday? 9-21-15
Indices opened gap down on Sunday night. ES recovered overnight after European open. It left a small gap below. ES now has gaps below and above. It may go either way to close a gap today in a choppy session. ES 's head and shoulder pattern is still in place. RUT may be forming its right shoulder now. Overall the market is still in bearish patterns. VX is pulling back at Fib 38% and next target will be 50% at 21.5 area.
My plan is to sell more calls today mainly with CS to reserve my buying power and keep leverage low.
It was a choppy day indeed. ES broke out to the upside in AM, It got knocked down less than half way to the gap above. It than closed the gap below and buyer stepped in. It closed inside Friday's range. I didn't have any trade except an error entry. I forgot to put in - sign again on a call spread in SPX. I placed an order to exit it with a little profit. The down trend is still intact. SPX and RUT weekly MACD are improving but not above 1. I spent a lot of time reading Tyler's post explaining his style of trading in Skype. It make sense to be heavy on the call side since market doesn't crush up like crush down. However I don't like constantly dealing with positions in the money. I will incorporate his approach into my style slowly to reduce my risk.
My plan is to sell more calls today mainly with CS to reserve my buying power and keep leverage low.
It was a choppy day indeed. ES broke out to the upside in AM, It got knocked down less than half way to the gap above. It than closed the gap below and buyer stepped in. It closed inside Friday's range. I didn't have any trade except an error entry. I forgot to put in - sign again on a call spread in SPX. I placed an order to exit it with a little profit. The down trend is still intact. SPX and RUT weekly MACD are improving but not above 1. I spent a lot of time reading Tyler's post explaining his style of trading in Skype. It make sense to be heavy on the call side since market doesn't crush up like crush down. However I don't like constantly dealing with positions in the money. I will incorporate his approach into my style slowly to reduce my risk.
Saturday, September 19, 2015
Weekly Review - A Possible Trend Reversal? 9-19-15
After FOMC day, market resumed selling led by European market. DAX was down more than 3%. US indices followed with around 1.5%. Both SPX and RUT had large volume in selling. MACDs are negative in weekly chart as well. I need to watch out and prepare for an retest of recent low or a complete break down as a worst case scenario. My risk is heavier to the down side. I plan to sell more of bear calls near term. We may not see a new high any time soon.
It was another $8K realized losing week from the late August. Hopefully I am near the end of tunnel now. Stay small and versatile is my new theme from now on.
It was another $8K realized losing week from the late August. Hopefully I am near the end of tunnel now. Stay small and versatile is my new theme from now on.
Friday, September 18, 2015
A Follow Through Selling Day 8-18-15
No matter what Fed does the market can interpret it differently. Overnight European market sold off on Fed's no rate increase. US futures dropped 1% pre-open. Market went wild as today was the option expiration day. SPX ended down 1.55 with sell off before close.
I am not sure if the new sell off is the beginning of another leg down or a deck clearing before leg up. We will see the intention of the market next week. Regardless the market actions my focus is on risk control and deleveraging. I sold couple CS puts for IC and possible adjustment purpose. I took profit on some bear calls today. My buying power is up to $100K but my leverage is back to 0.4 from 0.38. I am not quite understand the relationship yet. I am paying attention to VAR (value at risk) and ES (expected shortfall). It cost me so much when I ignored them before the August sell off. I should call IB next week to understand these figures.
I am not sure if the new sell off is the beginning of another leg down or a deck clearing before leg up. We will see the intention of the market next week. Regardless the market actions my focus is on risk control and deleveraging. I sold couple CS puts for IC and possible adjustment purpose. I took profit on some bear calls today. My buying power is up to $100K but my leverage is back to 0.4 from 0.38. I am not quite understand the relationship yet. I am paying attention to VAR (value at risk) and ES (expected shortfall). It cost me so much when I ignored them before the August sell off. I should call IB next week to understand these figures.
A Whole Lot of Anxiety For A Little Change 9-17-15
Today is the day for FOMC announcement. Indices continued to hold up overnight. My plan is to make my naked puts into credit spread and reduce my bear calls so my risk is reduced and balanced. I am heavy on bear calls from the margin standpoint. I bought back couple Oct 2 puts back for profit and left the long puts to cover the other naked puts in Oct 4. I am not sure how well it would really reduce margin if there is a big drop.
It was no rage change from FOMC. SPX closed at 1990, around yesterday's closing after pushing up to 2020. Many of my puts spreads exit orders were filled. I added couple Oct 3,4 bear calls CS near the high to help finance part of my puts exits.
Overall, it was a big day for nothing in terms of price. The high was rejected initially. I would wait to see how market would interpret FOMC in next couple days. Are we going to see the retest of the August low with the budget fight looming? I would stay light in size and bring my leverage below 3. It's at 3.8 today.
It was no rage change from FOMC. SPX closed at 1990, around yesterday's closing after pushing up to 2020. Many of my puts spreads exit orders were filled. I added couple Oct 3,4 bear calls CS near the high to help finance part of my puts exits.
Overall, it was a big day for nothing in terms of price. The high was rejected initially. I would wait to see how market would interpret FOMC in next couple days. Are we going to see the retest of the August low with the budget fight looming? I would stay light in size and bring my leverage below 3. It's at 3.8 today.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
Positioning for FOMC 9-16-15
Futures stayed in the upper range overnight. Asia and Europe are up nicely. It looks like the trade is going to positioning the the up range of weekly for tomorrow's FOMC. It can go either way from the mid of the entire down move. ES is above Fib 50, below 62%.
My task is to reduce my exposures on both side, reduce naked puts to 1 or 0 and keep leverage below 0.5
It was another up day again to my surprise. SPX was up 0.87%. My plan of reducing naked puts didn't go well since I used diagonals which is often not easy to fill. I only bought back one RUT Oct 960 naked put back. I will just go ahead to buy some SPX naked puts back tomorrow before FOMC to lock in my profit and wait out for the news before I decide what to do next. I will also close out some of my bear calls tomorrow morning to release some margin. It's going to be a big day tomorrow afternoon. I will not add any positions until the direction is clear. My leverage is down to 0.42 today. I want to get it to 0.3 or better before tomorrow's announcement.
My task is to reduce my exposures on both side, reduce naked puts to 1 or 0 and keep leverage below 0.5
It was another up day again to my surprise. SPX was up 0.87%. My plan of reducing naked puts didn't go well since I used diagonals which is often not easy to fill. I only bought back one RUT Oct 960 naked put back. I will just go ahead to buy some SPX naked puts back tomorrow before FOMC to lock in my profit and wait out for the news before I decide what to do next. I will also close out some of my bear calls tomorrow morning to release some margin. It's going to be a big day tomorrow afternoon. I will not add any positions until the direction is clear. My leverage is down to 0.42 today. I want to get it to 0.3 or better before tomorrow's announcement.
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Rallying into FOMC? 9-15-15
My plan for today is to continue deleveraging and reduce my size of naked puts. I didn't expect ES/SPX could break 1970. It appears that the lower deck was cleared yesterday. SPX went up 1.3% and closed at 1978.
All of my 9-17's positions are closed with some level of profits which is a big relief for me. No I have to work on reduce my put positions for 9/25 and 9/30 tomorrow. No one knows what would happen on FOMC's announcement and how the market will react to it. I made 2 naked SPX puts into 1 and rolled 2 to lower prices so they may cost me less to make them into credit spread. I plan to close the low price of RUT naked put and make 1-2 SPX credit spreads.
I sold some naked calls today to hedge my puts. It made bear side heavier now in my option portfolio now. I may have to do some adjustment if we have a surge up after FOMC. I will lighten some mature bear calls tomorrow.
I finally brought the leverage below 0.5. My next target is 0.3.
All of my 9-17's positions are closed with some level of profits which is a big relief for me. No I have to work on reduce my put positions for 9/25 and 9/30 tomorrow. No one knows what would happen on FOMC's announcement and how the market will react to it. I made 2 naked SPX puts into 1 and rolled 2 to lower prices so they may cost me less to make them into credit spread. I plan to close the low price of RUT naked put and make 1-2 SPX credit spreads.
I sold some naked calls today to hedge my puts. It made bear side heavier now in my option portfolio now. I may have to do some adjustment if we have a surge up after FOMC. I will lighten some mature bear calls tomorrow.
I finally brought the leverage below 0.5. My next target is 0.3.
Monday, September 14, 2015
Waiting for Fed and Clearing Deck? 9-14-15
Futures opened higher on Sunday night. ES was up 15 points, then it got faded overnight like many other times recently. ES was back to last Friday's range before RTH. My theses are that trade is going to swing down and up to clear deck before this Thursday's FOMC as usual.
My plan is still deleveraging before FOMC this Thursday. The meeting is apparently moved one day late due to the Labor Day. It will give an extra day to let my positions decay a little more. I need to be calm and patient. My objective must be clear and execute decisively.
It was a small range day for a change. ES had about 15 points range and VIX closed below 24. All indices are down less than 0.4%. I didn't have much activities either. I had to work on Turbo Tax filing issues since tomorrow is the deadline. I only closed my SPY puts for 35% profit.
I need to be more aggressive to protect my naked puts positions tomorrow. I didn't realize I still have 4 naked SPX and 1 in RUT. Market seams to be very nerves about Fed. Chinese market is still falling which didn't help at all.
My plan is still deleveraging before FOMC this Thursday. The meeting is apparently moved one day late due to the Labor Day. It will give an extra day to let my positions decay a little more. I need to be calm and patient. My objective must be clear and execute decisively.
It was a small range day for a change. ES had about 15 points range and VIX closed below 24. All indices are down less than 0.4%. I didn't have much activities either. I had to work on Turbo Tax filing issues since tomorrow is the deadline. I only closed my SPY puts for 35% profit.
I need to be more aggressive to protect my naked puts positions tomorrow. I didn't realize I still have 4 naked SPX and 1 in RUT. Market seams to be very nerves about Fed. Chinese market is still falling which didn't help at all.
Saturday, September 12, 2015
Weekly Review 9-12-15
It was a week of holding pattern for indices. The swings were still large and VIX hanged around 25. Bulls and bears were canceling each other. All eyes were on Fed and China. Daily and weekly bear flag is still in place. Most traders are still expecting an retest of SPX 1860-1830 area before or after FOMC next Wednesday. Market tends to surprise most people. My focus should be on my own risk control.
My main activities for the week were deleveraging and damage control. I had a break with VIX below 28. My leverage is between 1-0.8. It's still not at my target of 0.5 or below. My losses continued to show up as this week's positions closed. It was another $15K realized. My total P/L is $13K now.
I plan to continue to reduce my position size next week, especially on Monday and Tuesday before FOMC. I must change my mindset of matching size and $ amount for recovery. I can stay out of a dangerous period and try to recover my loss later. Surviving this down turn is my priority!
My main activities for the week were deleveraging and damage control. I had a break with VIX below 28. My leverage is between 1-0.8. It's still not at my target of 0.5 or below. My losses continued to show up as this week's positions closed. It was another $15K realized. My total P/L is $13K now.
I plan to continue to reduce my position size next week, especially on Monday and Tuesday before FOMC. I must change my mindset of matching size and $ amount for recovery. I can stay out of a dangerous period and try to recover my loss later. Surviving this down turn is my priority!
Risk Control 9-11-15
Indices futures got knocked on their heads again. ES is trading at lower range of yesterday around 1938-48. VIX futures is above 25 again. Sellers are still in control.
I realized last night that I have too many naked puts from last round of rollover to reduce my margin. They are creating a bigger dangerous element if the market falls sharply again. My plan for today is to eliminate all of the naked positions:
1. closing,
2. roll it down and buy puts to protect;
3. buy long put directly to protect the positions.
4. reduce sizes and then buy long protection to make them into spread.
It was an inside day but major indices closed at high of the day. This week had a small gain. Overall it was an inside week and the bear flag is still there.
I followed my plan to reduce margin and covered most of the naked puts. The final count is from 12 naked puts to 3. With 50K available margin and 0.68 leverage I should be able to handle an normal drop on Sunday night and Monday. Unless something happens dramatically trade may stay in a waiting mode until FOMC Wednesday. I will continue to reduce my exposures next Monday.
I realized last night that I have too many naked puts from last round of rollover to reduce my margin. They are creating a bigger dangerous element if the market falls sharply again. My plan for today is to eliminate all of the naked positions:
1. closing,
2. roll it down and buy puts to protect;
3. buy long put directly to protect the positions.
4. reduce sizes and then buy long protection to make them into spread.
It was an inside day but major indices closed at high of the day. This week had a small gain. Overall it was an inside week and the bear flag is still there.
I followed my plan to reduce margin and covered most of the naked puts. The final count is from 12 naked puts to 3. With 50K available margin and 0.68 leverage I should be able to handle an normal drop on Sunday night and Monday. Unless something happens dramatically trade may stay in a waiting mode until FOMC Wednesday. I will continue to reduce my exposures next Monday.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Retest Recent Low or Break Down? 9-10-15
Futures went through big swings overnight. ES has had 40 point range most to the upside only to get pushed back before open. VX is below 28 so far. It looks like the trade want to retest last Friday's gap of 1920 area. If it doesn't hold then we may see 1890 low again.
My margin went down to $28K before open. My task is to continue to defend my margin and deleverage. I will continue to rollover my puts.
Market traded in a range bound today. Lows got bought up and highs got sold off. ES closed Monday's gap but left Friday's gap alone. It left for a future retest? The bear flag or a wedge on daily and weekly are still intact. It's hard to tell which way it may go. VIX closed below 25. It's still in a very tight range. I was able to close and move around some positions to bring my margin to a safe level. However I made a mistake at the end to mess up my post expiry figures. I was supposed to sell 9-11 1915 long put and buy another long put of next week to increase my protections. I selected 1920 to sell instead of 1915 after I canceled the original one which couldn't get fill. Now my post expiry excess predicted only $8K left. I will monitor it closely tomorrow. The key is to see if it increases as the value of expiring positions decreasing. I will have to close or roll more puts to bring my margin up. My leverage is closed at 0.84. It's still not at my target of 0.5 or below, but better than 1.0.
My margin went down to $28K before open. My task is to continue to defend my margin and deleverage. I will continue to rollover my puts.
Market traded in a range bound today. Lows got bought up and highs got sold off. ES closed Monday's gap but left Friday's gap alone. It left for a future retest? The bear flag or a wedge on daily and weekly are still intact. It's hard to tell which way it may go. VIX closed below 25. It's still in a very tight range. I was able to close and move around some positions to bring my margin to a safe level. However I made a mistake at the end to mess up my post expiry figures. I was supposed to sell 9-11 1915 long put and buy another long put of next week to increase my protections. I selected 1920 to sell instead of 1915 after I canceled the original one which couldn't get fill. Now my post expiry excess predicted only $8K left. I will monitor it closely tomorrow. The key is to see if it increases as the value of expiring positions decreasing. I will have to close or roll more puts to bring my margin up. My leverage is closed at 0.84. It's still not at my target of 0.5 or below, but better than 1.0.
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
A Day of Reversal 9-9-15
I missed to write this morning's plan due to trader bite technical issue and perhaps feeling good about the 1% up overnight. Indices started falling from overnight highs right off of the gate. My initial assumption was a gap closing action. The day ended taking out yesterday's lows for ES/SPX and RUT. It looks like a bearish engulfing candle.
I was able to lock and roll couple SPX positions base on my plan of deleveraging. I was a bit too aggressive in selling SPY Oct 158 puts which turned out to be too early and the decay may be slow too.
I am getting too emotionally affected by by market swings. I need to say calm and focus on my plan of deleverage and risk control on a daily bases. Have a clear plan to deal with different market scenarios.
I was able to lock and roll couple SPX positions base on my plan of deleveraging. I was a bit too aggressive in selling SPY Oct 158 puts which turned out to be too early and the decay may be slow too.
I am getting too emotionally affected by by market swings. I need to say calm and focus on my plan of deleverage and risk control on a daily bases. Have a clear plan to deal with different market scenarios.
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
A Day of Relief 9-8-15
US indices futures went up over 1.5% overnight after the Labor Day long weekend. It's brought by China and Europe markets are up push. Last Friday's gap was closed. VIX is still at 25. I will focus on deleveraging my positions if the up move is holding well.
1. Roll some long puts to my naked short puts positions to make up credit spreads;
2. Roll naked short puts further out if there is 25% more profit;
3. Roll endangered puts out for a credit
4. Sell more calls to hedge my puts.
It was a strong rally. Indices didn't get any chances to fill last Friday's gap. ES/SPX and RUT closed on high of the day. SPX and RUT ended with 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. I was able to reduce my leverage to 0.78 and margin up to 50K. There are still some positions under water for Sept 3 and 4. Hopefully I will be able to manage them tomorrow. So far, the rally is still a retrace toward Fib 61.8 on weekly and daily. Until the market close above such levels firmly my risk is still at the downside. I will take advantages of the pull back to reduce my leverage and risk.
1. Roll some long puts to my naked short puts positions to make up credit spreads;
2. Roll naked short puts further out if there is 25% more profit;
3. Roll endangered puts out for a credit
4. Sell more calls to hedge my puts.
It was a strong rally. Indices didn't get any chances to fill last Friday's gap. ES/SPX and RUT closed on high of the day. SPX and RUT ended with 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. I was able to reduce my leverage to 0.78 and margin up to 50K. There are still some positions under water for Sept 3 and 4. Hopefully I will be able to manage them tomorrow. So far, the rally is still a retrace toward Fib 61.8 on weekly and daily. Until the market close above such levels firmly my risk is still at the downside. I will take advantages of the pull back to reduce my leverage and risk.
Saturday, September 5, 2015
Weekly Review 9-4-15
I survived the 2nd week of selling and high volatility with more wounds. My losses continued showing on book. This week booked $16K of loss with many of them incurred during the last week of blood bath and margin calls. I had some rollovers in hope of later recovery and maintaining my cash level. I have tried to deleverage but only reduced about 0.5, from above 2 to 1.67 at the of the week. I still don't have a very effective way to reduce my margin level without taking a big loss. I will explore more approaches over this long weekend.
Last Friday's gap down and sell off shown the market sentiment is still bearish. MACD and RSI are not showing over sold condition which leaves room for another leg down as many expected. We may not see much of relief until FOMC week on Sept 17. Volatility is still hanging on high 20s to low 30s.
Should or can I hang on for that long?
1. I can close everything next week and keep about $40K as what left available as of now.
2. I can keep managing my risk day by day as I am doing it now. The upside of it is that I may see a turn around soon so that I can recover more that a close out for now. The down side is that I may get wiped out with another sharp leg down or slowly get killed by a thousand cuts.
The answer: flip a coin? May be a creative thinking and execution may save me!
Last Friday's gap down and sell off shown the market sentiment is still bearish. MACD and RSI are not showing over sold condition which leaves room for another leg down as many expected. We may not see much of relief until FOMC week on Sept 17. Volatility is still hanging on high 20s to low 30s.
Should or can I hang on for that long?
1. I can close everything next week and keep about $40K as what left available as of now.
2. I can keep managing my risk day by day as I am doing it now. The upside of it is that I may see a turn around soon so that I can recover more that a close out for now. The down side is that I may get wiped out with another sharp leg down or slowly get killed by a thousand cuts.
The answer: flip a coin? May be a creative thinking and execution may save me!
Friday, September 4, 2015
Another Black Friday? 9-4-15
Futures dropped near 1% overnight as European fall around -2%. Is it another Black Monday? NFP is much worse than expected as it just released. Jobs +173K v.s +217K est. My job is to survive this day with deleveraging.
It was another heavy selling day despite the two attempts of pushing up in the morning and before closing. SPX closed down 1.5% and RUT down -0.75%. It's still better than -2% and more across European boards. I continued to roll down my puts to maintain my margin level. I closed my this week's put in the last hour with anxiety, but patiently waited for all day long. Over all I survived today.
I need to figure out a better way to deleverage my puts. I rolled down many of them to naked positions. I couldn't roll the long legs together due to the limited margin availability and the difficulty of rolling credit spread. Once these left long puts expired my naked puts could expose to margin limit again. I need to figure out a better way to deleverage over this weekend. There could be another wave of selling after this long weekend.
It was another heavy selling day despite the two attempts of pushing up in the morning and before closing. SPX closed down 1.5% and RUT down -0.75%. It's still better than -2% and more across European boards. I continued to roll down my puts to maintain my margin level. I closed my this week's put in the last hour with anxiety, but patiently waited for all day long. Over all I survived today.
I need to figure out a better way to deleverage my puts. I rolled down many of them to naked positions. I couldn't roll the long legs together due to the limited margin availability and the difficulty of rolling credit spread. Once these left long puts expired my naked puts could expose to margin limit again. I need to figure out a better way to deleverage over this weekend. There could be another wave of selling after this long weekend.
Thursday, September 3, 2015
Positioning Before NFP 9-3-15
US indices continued moving higher into Monday's gap zone overnight. It tested the gap this morning during ECB's conference but was quickly pushed back. VX dropped below 25 overnight as well. My theses are 1, trade is to position in a neutral area such as ES 1970s before NFP tomorrow morning. 2, close both gaps above and below, then park in 1950s of CLVA.
My plan is to continue deleveraging. 1. rollover with less contracts but still try to collect some premium. 2. close all RUT expiring positions today. 3. working on to close my SPX tomorrow's expiring positions. Set orders to close them today or tomorrow.
Keep calm and carry on.
Well, the day of rally failed after closing the gap above. ES fall back to close the gap below as well. It was a rare day which ES break both sides of IB. My theses two was played out. But ES closed slightly below 50.
I moved couple Sept 11 SPX 1910 down. My 3:2 swap didn't get executed despite of passed price actions. None of my RUT positions were filled even the expiring 1100. RUT is closed at 1145. The probability of 4% drop at open is low unless the NFP report is really bad or good. I also converted a bull put to a bear put for 9-11, 1910 which is my highest put position. I have to figure out a way to work on the same position in ET that could not be break off as naked.
Tomorrow's NFP is critical. Since the sentiment is pretty bearish it is likely ES will retest the recent low of 1900. My positions are still fragile. Margin is at only 32K and leverage is 1.3. I will try to rollover more positions. I will start before 8:30 to watch the NFP report reactions and prepare for a bad open.
My plan is to continue deleveraging. 1. rollover with less contracts but still try to collect some premium. 2. close all RUT expiring positions today. 3. working on to close my SPX tomorrow's expiring positions. Set orders to close them today or tomorrow.
Keep calm and carry on.
Well, the day of rally failed after closing the gap above. ES fall back to close the gap below as well. It was a rare day which ES break both sides of IB. My theses two was played out. But ES closed slightly below 50.
I moved couple Sept 11 SPX 1910 down. My 3:2 swap didn't get executed despite of passed price actions. None of my RUT positions were filled even the expiring 1100. RUT is closed at 1145. The probability of 4% drop at open is low unless the NFP report is really bad or good. I also converted a bull put to a bear put for 9-11, 1910 which is my highest put position. I have to figure out a way to work on the same position in ET that could not be break off as naked.
Tomorrow's NFP is critical. Since the sentiment is pretty bearish it is likely ES will retest the recent low of 1900. My positions are still fragile. Margin is at only 32K and leverage is 1.3. I will try to rollover more positions. I will start before 8:30 to watch the NFP report reactions and prepare for a bad open.
A Day of Relief 9-2-15
US indices moved to yesterday's high overnight. After initial selling out of gate market held and rallied into closing. ES broke yesterday's high and moved into gap zone. I think the trade is to prepare for Friday's job report. VIX also fall below 30 and closed at day's low of 26.
I took this break to roll over some of my puts in RUT and SPX. My margin is back to 40K. I also sold some calls to finance my rollovers since they don't cost me any margin for now. I need to be more aggressive in rolling SPX tomorrow if I get a chance. There is still a good chance that market rollover to test lower before or after job report. I need to be prepared for the worst just in case. It's a matter of fighting to save my account. I can't just hope for the better outcome.
I took this break to roll over some of my puts in RUT and SPX. My margin is back to 40K. I also sold some calls to finance my rollovers since they don't cost me any margin for now. I need to be more aggressive in rolling SPX tomorrow if I get a chance. There is still a good chance that market rollover to test lower before or after job report. I need to be prepared for the worst just in case. It's a matter of fighting to save my account. I can't just hope for the better outcome.
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Retest or New Low 9-1-15
Indices couldn't cross the Fib levels yesterday. They started to drop in evening session after closed at lows. By this morning before open, they were down near 2% already. It was another bloody day as most of the indices closed near 3% in measured move.
I was proactively working on maintaining my margin levels. I had to close 3 of 4 RUT long puts for this week and closed a rollover in SPX Oct, made a only$200 out of 4000. Lack of margin and buying power really tight up my hands. I will continue to work on deleveraging my account tomorrow. I have had 275 contracts for Sept, the highest number on my record. I was over leveraged as I was implementing 2 round trades per week plan. Over leverage and rely on luck killed me this time.
Tonight indices are showing some level of bounce after hitting their Fib levels during the RTH. Either we go up or down from here my main objective is to deleverage and release margin. I was not active enough and lacked of solid solutions during last week's pop.
I was proactively working on maintaining my margin levels. I had to close 3 of 4 RUT long puts for this week and closed a rollover in SPX Oct, made a only$200 out of 4000. Lack of margin and buying power really tight up my hands. I will continue to work on deleveraging my account tomorrow. I have had 275 contracts for Sept, the highest number on my record. I was over leveraged as I was implementing 2 round trades per week plan. Over leverage and rely on luck killed me this time.
Tonight indices are showing some level of bounce after hitting their Fib levels during the RTH. Either we go up or down from here my main objective is to deleverage and release margin. I was not active enough and lacked of solid solutions during last week's pop.
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