Thursday, September 10, 2015

Retest Recent Low or Break Down? 9-10-15

Futures went through big swings overnight. ES has had 40 point range most to the upside only to get pushed back before open. VX is below 28 so far. It looks like the trade want to retest last Friday's gap of 1920 area. If it doesn't hold then we may see 1890 low again.

My margin went down to $28K before open. My task is to continue to defend my margin and deleverage. I will continue to rollover my puts.

Market traded in a range bound today. Lows got bought up and highs got sold off. ES closed Monday's gap but left Friday's gap alone. It left for a future retest? The bear flag or a wedge on daily and weekly are still intact. It's hard to tell which way it may go. VIX closed below 25. It's still in a very tight range. I was able to close and move around some positions to bring my margin to a safe level. However I made a mistake at the end to mess up my post expiry figures. I was supposed to sell 9-11 1915 long put and buy another long put of next week to increase my protections. I selected 1920 to sell instead of 1915 after I canceled the original one which couldn't get fill. Now my post expiry excess predicted only $8K left. I will monitor it closely tomorrow. The key is to see if it increases as the value of expiring positions decreasing. I will have to close or roll more puts to bring my margin up. My leverage is closed at 0.84. It's still not at my target of 0.5 or below, but better than 1.0.

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