Still Holding Up 3-31-16

Indices held up well on this end of month and quarter day until end of the day. SPX/ES broke down from yesterday's range. Only RUT closed in positive territory but still below its 200 SMA.

Two orders today. Closed a 2080 call expiring today at 5 just to be safe. I started to roll tomorrow's expiring ITM call positions today but didn't have much luck. I got filled to roll a RUT 1085 ITM call to 4/14 with a put. I have SPY SPX near TM and RUT 1050 deep ITM to work on tomorrow. Indices may pull back to retest the break out area tomorrow.

Margin ratio is at 47% and leverage at 91. It stayed pretty much the same.

Follow Through 3-30-16

Indices gaped up after yesterday's surge. SPX/ES left the gap open at closing while RUT was able to close its gap. Overall it's a resting day. Tomorrow is the end of month. We may see some wild movements. We may see a pull back to the "seen of crime" tomorrow.

There are five trade today. I rolled 3/31 SPX 2060 call to 4/1 2060 plus a 1960 put. It pulled in $280 premium. I intend to scalp it since 2060 got pushed in the money. I will have to roll it again if SPX stays above 2060 by the day after tomorrow. Couple of the put targets got hit today. I have 2 SPY 2080 and 2090 near the money to deal with tomorrow. Then several of ITM RUT and near the money SPX to deal with on Friday, the day after tomorrow.

Risk factors remain the same. The 400 share of SPY 203 short is still a threat and elevated my leverage to 90 area.

A Choppy Monday 3-28-16

The US indices gave back overnight gains and explored both directions. All majors closed almost unchanged. Market appears waiting for more hints from Fed with several Fed members scheduled to talk this week. The uptrend is still intact and vix is bouncing around 15s. 

Had 3 orders today without any new positions. I rolled over a RUT 1050 call from 3/31 to 4/1 for the same strike and added a put of 1020 for a premiums of $130. There is not whole lot I can sell when Vol is at 15. 

Risk factors remain about the same. I started to explore the process of transfer my main account from IB to TOS.  Their commissions are still a bit higher than IB. I will continued to work on it and schedule to learn more about the TOS platform. 

Week 13 Review 3-25-16

Indices ended 5 week win streak on the 6th weeks. It was similar to last Oct's V shape bounce but it hasn't made a new high yet. There are still some room to reach the upper trend line. However the sentiment is under pressure with the talk of Fed raising rate in April.

It was an recovery week for my portfolio especially the late part of the week. Bear calls were relieved and came offline. Net liq is back above 200K and premiums are realized. The week ended with $3168 profit for the biz accounts. There are still some spots for late April and May on put side should we see further pull back.

Risk parameters moved back inline by end of the week. It was under a lot of pressure earlier especially with the -400 shares of SPY assigned to me. It raised leverage to near 100. Overall I am still over leveraged and may get into trouble again if there is a sudden drop of the market. I am consider to move the main IB account to TOS to prevent a future liquidation of margin call. The crazy Vol surge will happen again. It's not if but when.

Retesting the B/O Points 3-24-16

Indices fall overnight with European markets. They gaped open to the lower range of their current balance area. However SPX and RUT didn't go down much further after open. In fact RUT held up much better than SPX. It was a telling in the hind sight. Before closing they went up to yesterday's low or better. This is a typical of retesting the break out area or some calls it "back to the seen of crime". It may continue to fall next week or the pull back is over. It's a neutral posture. Daily MACDs seam to point to down side.

I tried hard to sell some puts for late April and early May. None of my CS got filled.  Instead I sold couple bear calls during the late day push up. There were nine trades today.  Rolled RUT 1070 call to next week and closed some dried positions on both sides. I also bought some hedges so I don't have any fees over the long weekend.

Risk factors got a little better as more positions went offline. Margin ratio is at 48%. Net liq is close to $210K. The market will be closed tomorrow for Easter.

A Day of Relief

It was the first over -0.5% down day of the last 10 trading days for SPX. RUT shed almost 2%. Based on the closing at near low of the day we may see a follow through to the end of the week. There are talks of rate hike in April. This is a factor must keep in mind. Vol could increase a lot.

The pull back was a much needed relief for my bear calls. My net liq increased over $10K. Several of my bear call exit targets were filled. I was able to add couple hedging calls to reduce margin as well. None of my bull put spreads get filled. I hope to fill in some empty spots for late April and May in next couple of days.

Risk factors much improved with today drop. Margin ratio is above 40% and net liq is above $200K. Now I need to watch out for my put side. I will buy some puts to make CS for my naked positions tomorrow.

Brussels Blasts

The terrorist attacks in Brussels shook the futures market overnight. Indices gapped down at open. Like many people I thought that we would see a big down day with the blasts in Brussels. Then I remembered that the market didn't react with much fear when the terrorist attack happened in France. That gave me a little hint but I didn't think the market could blast to a new high of this week. Bulls really had it today. It took out the high of yesterday of SPX. The closed only slightly below yesterday's closing. SPX is hanging on Fib 78 and RUT is struggling on 50 SMA and FIB 63. There may be a chance of retrace from here if bulls can't break it up.

There were four orders today. All of them are closing positions and buying to hedge. I got frustrated for not getting much in my way today. I couldn't focus on trading nor take care of other matters. I felt so sleepy after lunch too. Next time when it happens again I should take a walk or play wee.

Risk factors remind about the same. I did reduce some naked puts and excess fees. The 400 SPY short shares still weighing on my portfolios. I will try to sell some SPY or SPX puts tomorrow to reduce my negative delta.

Buyers Still In Control 3-21-16

SPX and RUT made attempts to drop early in the session. Buyers stepped in on prior day's low and held it in range. Bull flags for SPX and RUT are still intact so far. We are into 7th week rally and bulls may be a little tired. All the gaps on the way down were closed last week. S&P earnings for the 1st quarter are down 8% and no one seams cared so far. There may be another thrust to the upside base on the pasture and MACD.

There are 3 trades today with the small range day. I rolled 1/2 SPX 2050 call of this week which is ITM today to next week for 2065 + 1950 put. I collected $80 premium to fund two hedging buys. Theta produced $2K for me today.

Risk figures are still concerning. With many naked puts due to the funding of rollover calls the exposure fee is back again. Margin ratio is only back to 30% with 2 more hedging calls bought. Leverage is hanging at 97 since the -400 SPY added by the assignment. I will buy some puts to form spreads.

First Assignment 3-18-16

Indices held up well today. SPX closed up less than 0.5% but is firmly above its 200 SMA and right below Fib 78 RT from last Dec high to this Feb low. RUT crossed its 50 day SMA and ready to challenge Fib 62 RT. I would expect some pauls in these areas next week.

I had my first SPY assignment on the 203 naked bear call overnight. It was a surprise to me when I turn on my program this morning. I guess someone wanted that dividend and $1.6 price difference there. I didn't know trade could access assignment while market is closed. Now I am holding 400 share of SPY short and an extra $80K cash on hand. I will try to buy them back when we get a decent pull back. My hands were tight on the short squeezes since my margin is low. I sold one set of SPX May 1 2160 bear calls. Unless SPX make a new high I will be safe. I bought 2 more RUT calls of next week to get my margin up a little.

Risk factors worsened with the SPY assignment and the leverage is up to 100 for the first time. I get to watch out on both side since I have some naked puts from rollover and free margin.

Follow Up 3-17-16

Indices' futures drift down overnight following European market. However they recovered right before US opening. After initial pushing down indices kept moving up by later morning and never looked back. ES and SPX finally closed the gap around 2040 left from last Dec. The recovery is completed.

12 orders today. I rolled over all of my ITM and near TM positions. Some of them made right on target and some got squeezed to the last. It was meant to be that way since I had positions near the money on both sides. My P/L swings pretty wild lately due to these near money positions. I have only one SPY 203 calls to roll by tomorrow.

Risk factors bounced back after I closed some of bear calls. Margin ratio is back to 41%. However it will drop again after the long calls expired tomorrow. I will buy more calls to hedge it.

FOMC On Hold 3-16-16

The wait is over. FOMC held the rate hike as expected but also reduced the expected rate hikes from 4 to 2 times in 2016.  Market reacted to the announcement positively. SPX closed at 2027.6, up 0.6% at 2016's high. It also pushed into 2015 year end's gap zone. It looks like intend to close the gap soon. RUT is up 0.73% at 1074. It didn't make a new high for 2016 but forming a bull flag on daily and weekly. It appears that bulls are not done yet.

I didn't have any new positions on for 2nd day in a roll. None of my hedging call orders were filled during the announcement. I had to buy a RUT call after cash closing to release some margin. couple of SPX and SPY put positions were closed. I am going to roll  out my ITM and near the money positions tomorrow before lunch because Alissa's dental appointment and June need a car to meet her friends at Ga Tech.

Risk factors remain about the same. It should improve somewhat after tomorrow's expiration.

Awaiting for FOMC 3-15-16

Market took some clean deck action early today. SPX went down to test last Friday's low of 2003 and bounced. It recovered most of it by the end of the day. On the other hand RUT took a straight dive loosing 1.6%. Over all it's a waiting pattern. It appears trade is expecting a positive response from FOMC. But we will see. Some volatility is for certain. I will wait for the market clearly showing its direction before adding any new positions.

I bought more RUT calls to reduce margin and prepare for potential rollover. There were no new positions added.

Risk factors recovered with today's pull back, especially on the drop of RUT. Margin ratio is about 27%, still shaky. Leverage is at 36. I will reduce my positions and trading activity in RUT from now on.

Taking a Breath 3-14-16

US indices followed Asian and European markets staying in positive territory. SPX is right at its 200 SMA where RUT is below its 100 SMA. The indices ended flat while stayed at top portions of their Friday's ranges. All eyes are on FED again.

I had two trades today. Sold a SPX April 3 1680 naked put and bought couple RUT calls for next to reduce my margin. I am still under pressure on call side. I need to buy more protective calls tomorrow since some of them expired last week which squeezed my margin and IB's projected available funds were way off. I don't have any calls that are ready to be taken off.

Risk factors looks terrible after the weekend expiration. Margin ratio is below 30% despite the additional calls bought today. I don't think my portfolio can stand another 2% surge without a margin call for this week. I may have to close some calls and sell puts to cover them.

Week 11 Review 3-12-16

It's the forth consecutive positive week for the indices since the retest  the lows of the year in early February. Market has gained more than 10% from the bottom by now. Central banks continue to play a major role in the market. FOMC's next week meeting will be another major event for the market. The anticipation is there will be no rate hike. But the languages of Fed will by analyzed like reading tea leafs.

The pressure on my positions flipped to the bear call side since last week. Many of my ITM puts were recovered and off the book but some bear calls are ITM now. It's like last Oct all over again. I need to be more conservative and disciplined on my trading. I have been relaxed some what since I feel that I have tools to recover my positions. But the tools take up a lot of margin and pain. It's still the best to play safe, avoid ITM situation and keep equity curve smooth. This week ended with $4.6K profit which recovered the small loss of last week. It made the average of $2200 for last two weeks.

The swings of my risk parameters are still a major concern. My size may be still too big or stretched too long into further weeks. I need to spend some time to reconfigure my size and the spin of my time frame.  

Another Squeeze Up 3-11-16

European market reacted positively on Dradi's comments after the sell off on the day of ECB stimulus announcement. DAX and CAC went up 3+% following the 2% sell off on prior day. SPX and RUT gaped up following futures overnight surge. It was a trending day that squeezed shorts. SPX and RUT closed 1.6-2.2% on the high of the day. We may see a follow through on Monday based on the strong closing.

My bear call positions were under pressures too. I was expecting a pull back during the last couple of hours of trading. But it didn't happen. I didn't have two different scenarios for the later surge. I did hold off my trades for the time frame I planed. My RUT 1080 call looked safe until it got crossed after mid day. I had an order to close it at $15 then I moved it to $10 yesterday. I was trying to save a dime but ended losing more than a dollar. This habit has not served me well at all. I ended up to take $570 loss to roll it up. Although I collected some premiums but it carried margin which I needed to reduce my risk. There were 8 trades across my accounts. I sold some call spreads for April 3 and rolled my RUT ITM position in the last 60 min before closing.  I had to come up many different order combinations to rollover. One thing I have learned it that calls and puts in a rollover order is easier to get filled. Finally the RUT 1060 puts which was ITM in ET is expired and off my book now.

Risk factors worsened due to the surge and I closed less bear call positions. Net liq is down over 10K and margin ratio is below 30% as of closing. I have to buy more calls and roll out ITM positions to bring the measures up on Monday.

ECB Surprises Produced Nothing 3-10-16

ECB gave market better than expected stimulus package. After initial surge EURO started to move up and market pushing down. European markets ended around 2%. US indices recovered in the afternoon and closed flat. Trades may need more time to digest ECB's package and wait for FOMC next week.

There were 9 trades in IB today. Many of my near money expiring positions in RUT and SPY were closed. I will focus on the positions in ET tomorrow. Couple of my CS put for April 4 and 5 were filled. I made another mistake on a short term scalp today. I entered a RUT 1000 put for next week trying to get $100 to cover my hedging cost. It was quickly turn into $200 with Vega effect. I need to stick to my rules.

Risk factors improved. Margin ratio is near 40%. Leverage is at 35. I will try to take more positions out before FOMC next Wednesday.

A Choppy Day 3-9-16

US indices traded up and down within yesterday's range. They closed to the upside in the positive territory. My guess is that market is awaiting to ECB's announcement. It's leaning towards a positive outcome. It has room to go down if the announcement is disappointing. Of course the bigger event is FOMC next Wednesday.

Some of my April RUT put spreads got filled to form IC in my personal account. There were not any bear calls ready to get off. I bought a hedge call in RUT to reduce some margin.

Risk factors stayed about the same. They should be able to handle a moderate surge tomorrow if ECB surprise the market with a big positive news.

1st Down Day 3-8-16

It looks like a turn around Tuesday after a near double top of last two days. SPX and RUT lost 1 & 2% respectively. MACD for both turned red on daily but the are in positive territory on weekly. We may see couple more days of pull back to Fib 38-50 range before another attempt to go higher. Also ECB announcement is this Thursday and FOMC is next week. There is likely volatile moves on these events.

I got some relief from today's pull back. P&L and net liq increased $13.8K and $15.1K respectively. I wasn't able to close any call positions but added couple puts to take advantages of free margin. I may add more puts to April if the pull back continues tomorrow. There are some IC 2 or strangle opportunities on the puts side.

Risk factors improved quite bite. Net liq is back to 200 K. Margin ratio is at 35% from 26% of yesterday. I will work on to bring it back above 40%.

Bulls Won't Give Up 3-7-16

ES dropped overnight to last Friday's low and pushed up to the higher part of last Friday's range. A sell off came in around 2 pm. Bulls stepped in again near the low of the day. 2000 is the battle ground now. VIX is above 17. We may see a turnaround Tuesday to the down side. The risk of ECB announcement and US unemployment claim on Thursday may contain the market on both side.

The squeeze on call side continued on my holdings, especially for RUT. I bought couple of calls for this week to ease my margin pressure. There were other hedging calls didn't get filled. No new positions today.

Risk factors worsened due to the upside push. Net liq and margin ration is down to 26 again. leverage is up to 56. I will consider to close couple call positions and sell puts to compensate the loss tomorrow.

One More Thrust? 3-4-16

NFP came out much better than expected, Feb added 240K new jobs vs 190K expected. Indices drove up most of the day until after 2pm starting to squeeze the late longs out. ES/SPX ended around 2000 level. The fourth week of gains made more than 10% back.

I got squeezed most of day. However, I was calm and planed two to three different rollover configurations. My execution wasn't perfect, especially didn't stick to my plan time of executing my orders. I ended up missing some premiums. I finished rollover all of my underwater positions and collected more premiums.

Risk factors improved especially after I closed SPX 2000 calls instead of roll it over. I ended with some naked SPY positions I need to hedge next week.

Repeat of Last Oct Surge? 3-3-16

ES/SPX held up and closed above yesterday's high. ES parked right on its 200 SMA before tomorrow's NFP report. RUT gained 1% today closed below 200 SMA. It's playing catch up now. VIX fall down to 16.7. Market is waiting for NPR to see what's its next move. It can be interpreted any way they wanted by both side. It looks like bulls are on the stronger side.

The surge of last weeks remind people of last Oct's big reversal. We are into 4th positive week since the double bottom of early Feb. There were six weeks of consecutive gains last Oct. I am threatened on the bear call side. Got three RUT calls ITM after today's move. I started to roll my ITM positions didn't realize the RUT changed its weeklies to Friday. My memory is getting bad. I searched RUT expiration date last week but didn't remember it this week. I shouldn't have rolled over my 1070 put yesterday and paid a little premiums for it. It's ITM today.

Risk factors dropped quite bite. I am not sure if IB changed its calculation in margin in March. My available funds was reduced to a half from near 100K to 50K yesterday. I didn't sell any calls yesterday or today. I will have to call IB to ask about it. Now my IB margin ratio is at 25% vs 46% on Monday. I will try to reduce more call positions tomorrow.  

One lesson: It's hard to roll over a position and collect additional premiums once it's deep ITM. I will actively roll out a positions when it's near or at the money.

Back on 50 SMA 2-25-16

SPX/ES struggled most of the day below its 50 SMA. It finally broke it in the last hour of trading. It closed above the 50 SMA for the first time in 2016. This is a battle area. It could go down from here as well. RUT still has some ways to go. It hasn't crossed Feb's high and closed below 50 SMA.

There were total 9 trades today across my accounts. Sold some call spreads and closed some puts. I am heavy on bear call side right now. I should have some calls closed by tomorrow. I will try to roll down some ITM puts if we get a pull back tomorrow. I must check the trading schedule for 2/29 expiration day. Don't want to be caught by any surprises.

My available margin seams decrease every morning except options expiration days. IB account is down to 40% now. Leverage stays at 34. VAS and ES are higher due to today's pop.

Turnaround Tuesday 3-1-16

Well, the market is sure onto something. China's PMI was lower than expected and US PMI is higher at 49 vs 48 expected. All major US indices raised about 2%, reached or approaching Fib 62 RT on weekly charts. China concern and CL prices seemed not matter anymore. Market sentiment appears changing too. There was a call for S&P to reach 2350 by year end.

I had calls of RUT closed after open and puts closed later when price popped. I didn't expect prices going up that much until SPX  broke previous high of 1967. I have several call CS got filled around the break out. They turned out to be bite early on the 2% pop. I bend one order to lower the premium instead of waiting for the price come to me. Get to be more patient. Margins switched to the call side again.

Leverage went up slightly to 36 while net liq/margin ratio improved. I need to close some call positions to deleverage.